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Towards Liberty International Society for Individual Liberty > Don't Get Stuck Paying "Zombie" Debt – Towards Liberty – A commentary on current events by Jarret Wollstein The Coming Real Estate Collapse – 05-24-05 – As real estate prices in much of the U.S. continues to soar, evidence is growing that both commercial and residential real estate is greatly over-priced in many of the country's hottest markets – including New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., Miami, and much of California. One clear indication that real estate is overpriced is that rents are now a fraction of mortgage payments, and are continuing to fall in terms of real dollars. For instance, Forbes reports that cash return on income-producing real estate has fallen from 9% a few years ago, to just 5% to 7% now, and is likely to go lower. You can clearly see why rents are falling in overheated markets like California's Silicon Valley. In the San Francisco-San Jos corridor, there is currently over 33 million square feet of un-rented (and in many cases never occupied) commercial space. Last year, just 65 thousand square feet of this enormous inventory was rented. At that rate, it will take over 507 years to rent all unoccupied commercial real estate in Silicon Valley. Since most investors can't wait over half a millennium for returns on their capital, what's more likely is that commercial real estate prices in this "hot market" will soon fall like a rock. Another indication that real estate is poised for a fall, that fewer and fewer people can afford today's astronomically-priced houses. For instance, in California – where ordinary 2,000 square foot, 3-bedroom homes are going for $500,000 to $2,000,000+ – less than one family in six now qualifies to repurchase their own house. Another indications that real estate is ready for a fall: Of 362 U.S. metropolitan areas, about 15% are experiencing a housing "boom" – a three-year, inflation adjusted price gain of 30% or more – according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That's the highest number of boom markets ever recorded in the 30 years that they have been tracked. In Americas hottest real estate markets – including the big cities in New York, Florida and California – housing prices went up by 15% to 35% in the past year alone. This is clearly unsustainable. No matter how low interest rates are and no matter how many schemes George Bush comes up with for an "ownership society," it's clear that we are rapidly reaching the point when hardly anyone can afford to buy a new house in a hot real estate market, without putting their financial future in jeopardy. So what's propping up the real estate bubble, and causing housing prices to go ever-higher, even as rents fall and commercial landlords face enormous vacancy rates? Besides artificially low interest rates, the answer, in a word, is speculation. Up to one residence in three in California is now purchased not to live in, but for resale, according to the San Francisco Chronicle . The comparable figure may be as high as one property in two in the Las Vegas area. In downtown Miami, 80% of approximately 35,000 new condos now under construction or just completed, are owned by investors – not people who actually plan on living in them – according to MoneyNews.com. Call it the triumph of delusion over reality. I can't tell you how many people have told me that real estate price "can't fall, because if they did, they would be bankrupt." In other words, because they want prices to stay up, they must stay up. If you believe that, there is a nice three-bedroom fixer-upper on a dirt lot, and on the edge of an eroding cliff, in Pacifica, California, I'd like to sell you for just $2.5 million. Buy this bargain now, before the price really goes up! (This is a real example.) In the current frenzied real market, self-delusion is rampant. In Florida's red-hot real estate market, one Miami realtor recently told the New York Times , "South Florida is working off a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past." That's precisely what executives of dot coms told investors to justify their astronomical stock prices, just before the collapse – which triggered the destruction of over $3 trillion in stock value. Unfortunately, for many overextended home owners, property prices aren't immune to the laws of economics. Property prices can and do fall in America, as witnessed by the bear markets of 1974-75, 1980-82 and 1990-92. A personal example: One Northern California home owner I know bought his 2,000 sq. ft. house for $750,000 in 1989. In 1992, he was couldn't get $450,000 for his property, and was forced to declare bankruptcy after he lost his job. Millions of overextended American families with "interest only" and adjustable rate mortgages will likely find themselves in the same boat, when mortgage interest rates edge up above 7% or 8% – which is likely by the end of this year. (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that we can expect at least a 2.25% increase in interest rates in 2005, on top of the 2% increase in 2004.) The brutal financial reality is that a mere 2% rise in mortgage rates, can increase ARM payments by as much as 40% – an unsustainable burden for families living on the edge. One way or another, at best , the U.S. real estate bubble has 1 to 2 more years to run before it collapses. If you or your children are among those living in overpriced homes you can barely afford, NOW is the time to sell, when the market is at or near its peak, and before prices drop by 30% or more – and they find themselves living in a Motel 6 or in your basement. To minimize taxes on the profits, reinvest in a home in a small town or rural area where prices arent so absurd, and bank the rest. Please stay in touch! Add yourself to our e-mail list. Two times per month we send an update on the activities of our members and new features at ISIL.org. Simply enter your e-mail address here and click the button. You can easily remove yourself (unsubscribe) at any time. E-mail us at isil@isil.org if you have any personal questions or comments. E-mail address: Subscribe Unsubscribe



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Apartments.com - Free Nationwide Apartment Search with the Most Visual Rental Listings Online. 2005 People's Voice Webby Award Search millions of apartments, condos and houses for rent. Corporate, senior, and student housing, too! Map City / Zip Name Web # Corporate Housing Enter a property name, city and state to get more information about a specific rental community. Property Name: City: State: - Select a State - Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington Washington, D.C. West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming More Listings from more sources... so you can find a better place and a great deal! Newspaper Listings Hidden gems found only in your local paper and here! Private Landlords Unique spaces that feel like home. Managed Communities Professionally run & well maintained. Move in today. Short on time? Get new apartment listings emailed to you . Have a Vacancy? Reach thousands of renters! Enter Zip: Renew/Edit your existing listing Get Help with Your Move Free Credit Reports | Find a Roommate | Moving Quotes | Auto Insurance Quotes | More Services Support Hurricane Katrina relief efforts. Search Rentals by Top Cities - Albuquerque apartments - Allentown apartments - Atlanta apartments - Austin apartments - Baltimore apartments - Birmingham apartments - Boston apartments - Charleston apartments - Charlotte apartments - Chattanooga apartments - Chicago apartments - Cincinnati apartments - Cleveland apartments - Columbus apartments - Dallas apartments - Dayton apartments - Denver apartments - Detroit apartments - Durham apartments - Ft Lauderdale apartments - Fresno apartments - Greensboro apartments - Hampton Roads apartments - Hartford apartments - Honolulu apartments - Houston apartments - Indianapolis apartments - Jacksonville apartments - Kansas City apartments - Knoxville apartments - Las Vegas apartments - Little Rock apartments - Los Angeles apartments - Louisville apartments - Madison apartments - Manhattan apartments - Memphis apartments - Miami apartments - Minneapolis apartments - Nashville apartments - New Orleans apartments - New York apartments - Norfolk apartments - Oklahoma City apartments - Omaha apartments - Orlando apartments - Philadelphia apartments - Phoenix apartments - Pittsburgh apartments - Portland apartments - Reno apartments - Richmond apartments - Rochester apartments - Sacramento apartments - Salt Lake City apartments - San Antonio apartments - San Diego apartments - San Francisco apartments - San Jose apartments - Seattle apartments - St Louis apartments - St Paul apartments - Tampa apartments - Tucson apartments - Tulsa apartments - Washington DC apartments - Wilmington apartments Click Here! ');}//--



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Homepage of the California Department of Real Estate (DRE) California Home DRE Home Contact Us What's new About DRE Careers at DRE DRE Records Consumers Escrow Violations eLicensing Examinees Licensees Subdivisions Real Estate Law Regulations Publications Forms FAQs Links Index Department of Real Estate START Examinees and Licensees: Use eLicensing for expedited processing of: Examination services Mailing address changes License renewals Salesperson additions/changes of employing broker Broker certification of salesperson employment Broker discontinuation of salesperson employment Duplicate license requests Additional services Learn to use eLicensing It's easy, paperless and interactive! Resources Key Announcements Brokers Must Report Commission Payments on 1099s Real estate brokers are required to report commission payments of $600 or more to brokers and salespersons on Form 1099-MISC, Box 7 - Nonemployee Compensation. For more information, see 1099 Reporting for Real Estate Brokers published by the Franchise Tax Board. Combination examination and license applications are now available: Broker Examination/License Sales Examination/License Expanded Services: Use eLicensing to apply for the salesperson exam Important Information About: Application Processing Timeframes Satellite Exam Sites for Salespersons and Brokers Can't find what you're looking for? Try the Index Featured Items Topics of Interest: Gulf Coast Hurricanes CalHFA First Time Homeownership Program Instructions to License Applicants Help Avoid DENIAL of Your License Application Guides for First Time Home Buyers and Renters Information for Homebuyers Apply Online for a CalVet Home Loan Predatory Lending Prevention Investigate Before You Invest Small Business and DVBE Opportunities Workers' Compensation Coverage Flex Your Power - Be Energy Efficient! Find out how you can save money, save energy, and save natural resources.   more My CA Customer Survey Course & Instructor Evaluation Back to Top of Page Conditions of Use | Privacy Policy | Tech Problems 2003 State of California This page last modified on Wednesday, December 28, 2005



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