Real Estate Prices
Real estate horror stories - Dec. 2, 2002 Enter Ticker Symbol Search CNN/Money Autos Real Estate Money's Best Home Markets & Stocks News Jobs & Economy World Biz Technology Commentary Personal Finance College Credit and Debt Insurance Interest Rates Retirement Tax Center Ask the Expert Five Tips The Good Life Millionaire in the Making Money 101 Moneyville Retirement Planner Savings Calculator Asset Allocator Mutual Funds Money Magazine Video CNN TV Fortune 500 Best Employers Money 101 Portfolio Calculators Real-time Quotes Last 5 Quotes SPONSORED BY include virtual="/fn_adspaces/markets-stocks/last_five_quotes/sponsor.88x31.ad" -- CNN/Money Email newsletters RSS Mobile news Money archives Buy story reprints Find a Mortgage SPECIAL OFFER Personal Finance Your Home Real estate horror stories There's never been a national bust but keep an eye on your backyard. December 2, 2002: 11:57 AM EST By Leslie Haggin Geary, CNN/Money Staff Writer New York (CNN/Money) - During the past three years, real estate has been a shelter in the storm. Since 2001, home prices have gained about 6.3 percent annually, according to the National Association of Realtors . And in dozens of hot markets , from San Francisco to Providence, RI to Topeka, KS, homeowners have seen double-digit price increases over the past year. Next to the seeming flimsiness of stocks, real estate looks rock solid. For the past 40 years, home sales prices have outpaced inflation by one or two percentage points per year, and there has never been a national decline in real estate values. But that's just part of the picture. When you drill down to local markets, instead of steady rises, you may find vertiginous spikes followed by stomach-churching drops. What's more, when busts hit, it can take years -- maybe even a decade -- for individuals who bought at the top of the market to recoup their investment. To see how grim it can get, we looked at annual sales figures for 138 metro areas across the country during the past three decades to spot where local bubbles burst, what drove prices into the cellar and how long it took for property owners to recoup their money. Here are some of the factors that can kill a real estate boom. Population shifts It's obvious. Jobs equal workers. Without work, residents leave, and home sales dry up. Consider the case of southern California. Once home to a thriving defense industry, military cutbacks hit the region especially hard in the early 1990s. Some 1 million individuals left the area, according to Ingo Winzer, president of The Local Market Monitor , a real estate consulting firm that tracks housing prices nationwide. In Los Angeles, home prices shed 21 percent of their value between 1989 and 1996, with the typical house selling for $172,900. (The peak was $214,800 in 1989 following a five year, 77-percent jump.) An exodus can hit smaller communities, too. Syracuse, NY once boasted 250,000 residents back in the 1950s, when it was a thriving industrial city. No longer. Many of those jobs are gone and Syracuse lost a full 10 percent of those inhabitants from 1990 to 2000, when its population dropped to 147,000 residents. Home prices, not surprisingly, fell too. Half of all property owners in the county who sold homes in 1997, for example, sold at a loss. Vacant buildings were not uncommon. (At one point, there were more than 1,000 empty dwellings.) Local recessions Ask housing experts about local busts and one of the first places they'll mention is Houston, TX. When the oil market was kicked in the teeth back in the mid-1980s, home prices in this city tumbled fast. In just three years, from 1985 to 1988, the typical home price dropped by 21 percent -- or from $78,600 to $61,800. Related Stories Did you pay too much for your house? Real estate or stocks? Milking the bubble Rev up your resale value "Prices fell so much that people owed more on than their mortgages than their homes were worth," said David Weil, an economics professor at Brown University. " They'd drive to the bank and drop off their keys to their homes and just leave." Houston isn't the only city where home prices have fallen when the local economy languishes badly. Take the stock market crash of 1987, which hit New York City's financial industry hard. Prices peaked at $183,000 in 1988, and anyone who bought then had to wait until after 1997 to get to even money. Another victim? Hartford, CT. From 1984 to 1988, the typical home price soared 92 percent to $167,600 from $87,400. Then the insurance industry started laying off or moving out. Hartford's population growth slowed to zero. And home prices starting falling. In fact it wasn't until last year that someone who bought at the 1988 price would have made their money back. Fast run-ups in housing values Are markets that have soared quickly especially prone to a bust? That's a question no doubt troubling many homeowners. But the answer isn't simple. Certainly, there have been plenty of hot markets that suddenly turned sour. Consider Honolulu, Hawaii, for example. Back in 1995, the average tab for a house in this community hit a record $360,000 -- a whopping 122 percent increase from the decade before. Then suddenly, prices began to drop. By 1999, a $360,000 island retreat was being unloaded for $290,000, a 19 percent discount, according to NAR. Prices started to finally rise in 2000, but anyone who bought at the island's real estate peak didn't recoup their money until this year. Hawaii's housing woes were tipped off by several factors, not the least of which was the decline in the Japanese economy, which squelched real-estate investment in Hawaii. Honolulu was also in trouble in part because few fundamentals, other than investment dollars -- were pushing the market. In fact, during the boom years, the island's population was climbing at a 1 percent rate, too low to justify the massive run-up in housing values. Bottom line: it's important to look at what drives housing spikes before you assume there will be a catastrophe, said Winzer. Rising interest rates "People tell you that housing never goes down, but that's just not true -- you try to sell a house when interest rates have gone up," said Stephen Cauley, associate director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate, Anderson School at UCLA . To illustrate his point, Cauley points to the early 1980's, when double-digit interest rates were being used to fight inflation. That made the cost of borrowing money for a home almost prohibitively expensive. "It was horrendous for the housing market," said Cauley. "There were no transactions." By 1982, the number of existing home sales had slid to 1.92 million, the lowest number on record, according to NAR. Many markets -- notably Detroit, Providence, Chicago and Philadelphia -- saw home prices stay flat or fall between 1979 and 1982. These days, of course, high interest rates seem a distant threat, though they are beginning to creep up. Current mortgage rates are hovering just above 6 percent for a fixed, 30-year loan. But even if rates go up a full percentage point, rates are still low, said Cauley. How will all this play out? If history is any guide, there won't be one big pop, the kind that usually come with stock-market crashes. But that doesn't make it any less painful. --* Disclaimer Selling? Buying? Click to compare top local real estate agents More on YOUR HOME Your Home: Bracing for higher rates Refinancing demand lags again A rose is (not) a rose TODAY'S TOP STORIES Most overvalued housing markets Risks to the economy in 2006 Which was the worst ad of all in 2005? CNN Money contact us | subscribe to Money magazine advertising -- | site map | glossary | RSS | press room OTHER NEWS: CNN | SI | Fortune | Business 2.0 | Time © 2005 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. A Time Warner Company ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms under which this service is provided to you. privacy policy Reprints of site stories are available.
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Real Estate Broker Won't
Smartmoney.com: Consumer Action: Ten Things Your Real Estate Broker Won't Tell You Thursday December 29, 2005 3:28 PM ET U.S. Markets close in: :32 Search (choose an option below) Quote Charting Earnings Ratings Competition Financials Profile Key Statistics Insiders Site Search News (Enter Symbol) advanced search SmartMoney Select My Portfolio Tools Maps Stocks Advanced Trading Funds ETFs Personal Finance Autos Career Journal College Planning Debt Management Health Care Insurance Life LTC Insurance Real Estate Retirement Tax Guide Economy & Bonds Small Business SmartMoney TV SmartMoney Magazine SmartMoney University Business Travel Technology SmartMoney Mobile Holiday Survival Guide Select Homepage Stock Screener Market Map 1000 Fund Screener Stock Compare Fund Map 1000 Fund Compare XStream Quotes More... 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Editor's Picks Features Ten Things Real-Life Index Advertisement 4.25% APY with hsbcdirect.com Online Savings. Earn 8X the national savings average and make money into big money. No minimums. No monthly fees. Member FDIC. Email This Story Print This Story Save This Story Send Us Your Comments Add this column to your News Alerts (New!) 1. "Your open house is really a party for me." Hire a real estate broker to sell your home and one of the first things he'll likely suggest is hosting an open house, so potential buyers can casually check out your property on a weekend afternoon. While open houses are promoted as a great way of finding a buyer, a National Association of Realtors study found that their success rate is a mere 2%. No matter. Having an open house serves another important purpose for the broker. "It gives him a database of clients," says Sean McNeill, an independent real estate broker based in New York City who says that he doesn't like open houses, preferring to match clients with appropriate buyers. "At open houses, you get all kinds of people walking in. Some are [trying] to see how much they should sell their own places for; others just want to get a look at what's out there." All are perfect pickings for a broker looking to increase his roster of buyers and sellers. "Think about it," McNeill says. "The broker is devoting a couple hours of a weekend. He won't do that unless it helps him in a big way." 2. "My fees are negotiable." Brokers like to make it sound as if their fees are engraved in stone, but that's rarely the case especially in a brisk market, when brokers fiercely compete for properties they can unload fast. This past summer one broker in the Midwest says he lowered his fee by a full percentage point because there was so much demand for good properties that he needed leverage. Indeed, says the broker, who asked not to be named, sellers should shop around for broker's fees. He suggests these negotiating tactics: "If somebody's willing to commit to me for selling one place and buying another, I give a discount. If you're in a particularly desirable neighborhood with a house that will bring a lot of traffic" say, at an open house "that can be used, because the broker will use the flow of people to get potential customers. And with some [smaller] brokers, all you need to do is ask and they'll lower the commission." 3. "Think you've had no offers? Actually, there've been several." Legally, the broker you hire to sell your home is obligated to tell you about all offers that come in. In reality, some don't. Perhaps he thinks the offer is insultingly low for you, but more likely, "the broker thinks it's too low for his own purposes. He wants to hold out for a bigger commission," says McNeill. Or else there's an outside broker (or "co-broker") circling your house, and the primary broker is waiting for one of his own clients to make an offer so he can keep the full 6% to himself. "You must be clear with your broker that you want to be informed of all offers," McNeill says. "Otherwise, you may be leaving him to make decisions that you should be making." Check the listing agreement drawn up when you hire the broker; if the promise to disclose all offers isn't listed explicitly, insist that it be added. 4. "I talk about you behind your back." You spot your dream house as you're driving through a neighborhood and call the broker listed on the For Sale sign. That's how a lot of buyers stumble on a broker who, in turn, happily shows you other houses, asking about your needs, laughing at your jokes. It's easy to get loose-lipped and forget whom you're dealing with: someone else's agent. "Legally, brokers are obligated to provide their sellers with any information that can help them get the best prices for their homes," says Stephen Israel, president of Buyer's Edge, a Bethesda, Md.-based company that represents homebuyers. "If you tell the broker that you're willing to pay $500,000 but want to offer $450,000, they'll pass that on to the seller. They have to." Also, some brokerage companies encourage prospective buyers to get preapproved for loans. While that can make a buyer more attractive to a lender, it also tells a broker whether a buyer can afford a $600,000 house when he's trying to haggle on a $400,000 property. "When somebody asks for [a preapproval], find out who they're representing," says Israel, acknowledging that such details can short-circuit your negotiating leverage. "If they represent a seller or someone in their office does they shouldn't have it. The broker may tell you she will be impartial, but how can she be?" 5. "Sometimes I forget whose side I'm on." The past 10 years have seen the proliferation of the buyer broker, agents who are supposed to work strictly in the buyer's interest, helping him get a fair price on a home as well as avoid pitfalls along the way. Unfortunately, things don't always unfold so nicely. While buyers may think they're getting a broker who isn't commission-hungry, many buyer agents are just that: They usually get about 3%, the same amount any broker typically earns when he gets involved with another agent's listing. "Buyer brokers are sometimes too focused on closing the sale and getting that commission," says Max Gordon, an Overland Park, Kan.-based real estate broker and attorney, so it's often in their best interest to see you pay as high a price as possible. Even worse, some brokers who call themselves buyer advocates are actually working for companies that also represent sellers. "Brokerages offer bonuses to buyer agents if they sell an in-house listing," says Israel. A good way to get a broker who has no such conflicts of interest: The National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents, whose Web site (www.naeba.com) can help you find a buyer agent near you who pledges to help you get the best deal possible and has no ties to sellers' agents; many even work on a fee structure rather than on commission. Page 1 | 2 Consumer Action Archive To license this content, click here ADVERTISEMENTS Click here to get your FREE report -- The Motley Fools´ 2 Top Picks. 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