Real Estate Broker

Weichert Realtors: Homes for Sale & Real Estate Listings in NJ,NY,FL,VA,MD,DC,CT,PA,MA,SC,NC,TX,GA,DE,OH,TN,WV En Espanol City & State, or Zip: MLS #: Price Range: $ ,000 To: $ ,000 Rentals Careers at Weichert Luxury Homes Historic Homes New Homes and Land Corporate Housing Commercial & Investments Insurance Gold Services Relocation Real Estate Schools Referral Associates Franchise Opportunities Start your Home search here, or click on the map. Please Select Alabama Arkansas Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Illinois Maryland Massachusetts Missouri New Jersey New York North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania South Carolina Tennesee Texas Virginia Washington, DC West Virginia Weichert, Realtors proudly donated $1.3 million to the American Red Cross for the victims of Hurricane Katrina Also Search For: Selling · Open Houses · Mortgages · Associates · Offices Browse By State: Alabama Real Estate Properties New York Real Estate Properties Arkansas Real Estate Properties North Carolina Real Estate Properties Connecticut Real Estate Properties Ohio Real Estate Properties Delaware Real Estate Properties Pennsylvania Real Estate Properties Florida Real Estate Properties South Carolina Real Estate Properties Georgia Real Estate Properties Tennesee Real Estate Properties Illinois Real Estate Properties Texas Real Estate Properties Maryland Real Estate Properties Virginia Real Estate Properties Massachusetts Real Estate Properties Washington, DC Real Estate Properties Missouri Real Estate Properties West Virginia Real Estate Properties New Jersey Real Estate Properties Call 1-800-USA-SOLD (1-800-872-7653) Buying a House | Selling a Home | Open Houses | Real Estate Agents | Realtor Offices Find a Mortgage | My Real Estate Listings | About Weichert | Home | Contact Us Real Estate Franchise Opportunities | Weichert Careers © 2005 Weichert Realtors. All rights reserved. Terms of Use | Privacy Statement REALTOR® -- A Registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS ® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Inquiries regarding the Code of Ethics should be directed to the board in which a REALTOR® holds membership. © 2005 Weichert Realtors. All Rights Reserved.

Real Estate Investing

Bob Bruss Real Estate Center An Audio Message from Bob Bruss Subscribe to Bob's Weekly e-mail update and get this Free Report: 2005 Realty Tax Tips: 8 Chapters of Tax Savings for Homeowners and Investors First Name: Primary E-mail Address: >> Order Bob’s Special Real Estate Reports only $4.95 each! >> Ask Bob a Real Estate Question >> Subscribe to Bob’s Newsletters NEW REPORT! “Foreclosure and Distress Property Profit Secrets” >> Order Why pay upwards of $300 per hour for real estate legal, tax or investment advice? Bob Bruss, America’s most trusted real estate expert, offers Special Reports on a wide range of real estate topics for less than $5.00 each! Bob’s columns appear in over 150 newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times and San Francisco Chronicle. Bob draws on more than 25 years of real estate writing, teaching and investing to bring you unbiased information that will help you make smart real estate decisions. Click above & get a free 6-month newsletter subscription! Bob's Notebook SIX KEY REAL ESTATE NEGOTIATION TIPS FOR BUYERS, SELLERS Determining other party's motivation paramount to success The year 2005 has been very good for most property owners and realty sales agents. Home sales prices appreciated handsomely in most communities and the sales volume of new and resale homes were near-record. But 2006 promises to be more "normal" as mortgage interest rates slowly rise, resulting in a modest new home construction volume decline with a corresponding residence market value appreciation and sales volume slowing. Having been through many real estate market ups and downs over almost four decades, both as an investor, sales broker, and realty writer, I've learned that success in a slowing real estate market requires paying greater attention to negotiation skills. NEGOTIATE WITH PEOPLE WHO WANT TO NEGOTIATE . As a lifelong student of real estate negotiation techniques, because there is always more to learn, I've discovered it usually is a waste of time to attempt to negotiate with people who are not highly motivated to make a change. Most experienced real estate agents hate the situation when a home seller lists their desirable property for sale with a top price but they really don't have a good motivation for selling. These sellers often have the attitude "If we can get our price, we'll sell. Otherwise, we won't sell." Their homes often take "forever" to sell. But in 2005, many homes sold for above their asking prices because buyers wanted to purchase more than sellers wanted to sell. A strong motivation for many buyers was to beat the long-predicted rise in home mortgage interest rates. The result was a "seller's market" in many communities with more qualified buyers than motivated sellers. However, as the number of residence listings for sale has risen recently and is expected to continue rising in early 2006, especially after the customary holiday 2005 year-end lull in home sales, many real estate economists are predicting a more normal balance of motivated sellers and buyers. The result should put a premium on negotiation skills for home buyers and sellers, as well as their realty agents, to conclude successful sales. HOW TO ACHIEVE A SUCCESSFUL NEGOTIATION . Whatever your role in a home sale, as buyer, seller or realty agent, you can't ask too many questions. Of course, the best negotiators inquire in a friendly manner interjected with compliments. Here are the six key questions to get answered for a successful home sale negotiation: 1. WHY IS THE SELLER SELLING THIS LOVELY HOME? One way or another, successful home buyers and their realty agents need the answer to this key question so the buyer can make a purchase offer which meets the seller's needs (of course, buyers should leave out the word "lovely" if the place is a dump!). As a long-time investor in rental houses, and my personal residences, I always try to tailor my purchase offers to meet the seller's needs (and mine too). For example, several years ago I bought a house from an elderly lady who was retiring. So I offered her 10 percent cash down payment and a 90 percent seller carryback mortgage to provide for her retirement income. When she saw my offer and how much she would receive from my payment each month, she accepted (although the listing agent previously told me she wouldn't carry back any mortgage financing). Another time a listing agent told me the retired sellers of an "el dumpo" house were living in a boarding house and needed cash. As a result, I figured they wanted an all-cash sale so I arranged 100 percent financing at a community bank. The sellers immediately accepted my low purchase price offer for cash. 2. WHAT WAS THE HOME SELLER'S PURCHASE PRICE? Buyers who don't find out the answer to this key question, either from the listing agent or their buyer's agent, are at a severe negotiation disadvantage. Here's why: If the seller purchased the home many years ago for a low purchase price compared to today's market value, that seller has lots of negotiation room. However, if the home seller bought within the last few years for a price not far from today's market value, there isn't much negotiation flexibility. Of course, if the seller has a high-motivation reason for selling, as disclosed by the answer to the first question, even a recent home buyer is often willing to sell in a quick sale for close to the seller's purchase price. Such a situation is an ideal candidate for the buyer to take over payments on the current mortgage with the lender's permission. 3. DOES THE OTHER PARTY HAVE A TIME DEADLINE? This is a question both home buyer and seller should ask of their realty agent. To illustrate, if one party has a job transfer, then purchase or sale of the home can be very important. But if the seller is moving to a retirement residence, time usually isn't so critical. However, if the seller already bought another home and needs to sell the current home to produce the down payment, then closing time is ultra-important. As experienced real estate agents know, the worst home buyers and sellers are those without any time deadlines. Those folks can take forever to make decisions. 4. HAS THE SELLER OBTAINED A PROFESSIONAL HOME INSPECTION REPORT? Today's smartest real estate agents suggest their sellers obtain a professional inspection report at the time of listing the home for sale. Then the seller is fully aware of most home defects and can either have the defect repaired or fully disclose it to prospective buyers, thus averting future lawsuits. Sharp home purchasers, and their buyer's agents, understand this trend. When a buyer is seriously interested in a house, always ask if the seller has already obtained a professional inspection the buyer can review before making a purchase offer. Even if the seller has obtained customary professional inspection reports, smart buyers should always include in their purchase offers a contingency clause for the buyer's approval of their own inspection report obtained at the buyer's expense. Most states now have some form of required seller disclosure statement revealing known home defects. However, many sellers are not aware of all their home's defects, or they might "forget" to disclose a defect. The old days of "caveat emptor" (let the buyer beware) have disappeared. Today, the new rule seems to be "let the home seller beware of the buyer and his lawyer." 5. WHAT IS THE BUYER'S MOTIVATION TO PURCHASE MY HOME? Just as home buyers need to know the seller's reason for selling, to create a harmonious negotiation situation, home sellers should ask why the buyer wants to purchase. Of course, there are many home purchase reasons. However, if the buyer has indicated a key reason why that particular house is under consideration, such as its great condition, outstanding school district, or need to move in quickly, the seller can use that information to enhance their negotiation position. 6. ASK AN OPEN-ENDED QUESTION, SUCH AS WHAT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SHOULD I KNOW BEFORE MAKING A DECISION? There are many variations of this question home sellers and buyers can ask, especially of their real estate agents. To illustrate, a home buyer might ask their buyer's agent "What else should I know about this house?" Or the seller might ask their listing agent "If you were in my situation, would you accept or counteroffer the buyer's purchase offer?" SUMMARY : When negotiating a home sale, sellers and buyers can't ask too many questions to enhance their negotiation position. The prime reason is to determine how motivated the other party is to buy or sell. If there is weak motivation, you aren't in a strong negotiation situation. However, if the other party is highly motivated, then you are in a strong circumstance to negotiate your strongest price and terms. More details are in my special report, "How to Become a Super-Successful Real Estate Negotiator," available for $5 from Robert Bruss, 251 Park Road, Burlingame, CA 94010 or by credit card at 1-800-736-1736 or instant Internet PDF delivery at www.bobbruss.com . Back to top © 2005 Inman News Home | Real Estate Reports | Real Estate Newsletter | About Bob Bruss | Site Map

Home Equity Apply Now

Home Equity Loans and Home Improvement Loans tag, as close to the beginning of it as possible-- Purchase Refinance Home Equity Apply Now Online Application Status Check Out Today's Rates Search Need Help? Home HOME EQUITY LOANS - or - With Home Equity financing from GMAC Mortgage, your home can become a powerful financial tool. However you decide to use your equity—for a more comfortable retirement, to pay for college, to buy that vacation getaway you always wanted—we can help you access it. Start Your Online Application Find a Local Expert Home Equity Loans A home equity loan gives you the cash you need as a single up-front payment, which you can repay at a fixed rate. If you know exactly how much you need to borrow, a home equity loan may be the best option. Apply Now Home Equity Credit Lines A home equity credit line gives you a revolving source of cash that you can draw from as you need to, up to a maximum amount. The line carries a variable rate with an interest-only option, and you pay interest only on the money you actually use — not the total amount of the credit line. Apply Now Use your equity to buy a home Finance a renovation project SHORTCUTS Home Equity Resources Today's Rates Local Branch Calculators Privacy & Security THE LEARNING CENTER The Right Loan Program First-Time Buyer Guide Buying a Home Loan Programs Simplified Flexible Options for New Home Construction Privacy | Legal Information | Auto Insurance | GMAC HomeSolutions | Contact Us | About Us | Careers | Site Map 2005 GMAC Mortgage Corporation. All Rights Reserved. GMAC is a registered service mark of the General Motors Acceptance Corporation Real Estate and moving services offered by GMAC Home Services, Inc. and GMAC Global Relocation Services, Inc. GMAC Residential Holding Corporation is the parent of GMAC Mortgage Corporation, GMAC Home Services, Inc., Ditech Escrow Services, Inc., GMAC Bank and GMAC HomeSolutions. Because of these relationships, any of these referrals may provide GMAC Residential Holding Corporation with a financial or other benefit. Close This link will take you to another site that is not affiliated with gmacmortgage.com. Therefore, GMAC Mortgage's privacy policy will not apply. For your safety, please check with the sites privacy policy before entering your information. Thank you. Close

Sell House

Selling Your Home, Sell home, selling a house, selling house, sell your home - Home Services Mortgages Research Moving Zero Down Appraisals -- -- A Simple Guide for Selling a Home on Your Own Preface: Why sell yourself? Selling a home yourself, without an expensive real estate broker is easier than most people think. However, it will take some work on your part. You will be doing a lot of things that a real estate agent might normally do. Just follow the For Sale By Owner.com step-by-step selling guide below, and you'll not only save lots of money, but we'll make the house selling process as effortless as possible It's the money! Sellers save thousands of dollars not paying a 6% or 7% commission. For example, if your home can sell for $250,000, youd save $15,000 to $17,500 in commissions. Sell Your Home Fast. Because you are not paying an outrageous selling commission, you can afford to price your home more aggressively. The lower the price, the more likely it sells fast. You will still walk away with thousands in savings, but you'll just be doing it faster. It's so easy. Despite what a real estate broker may say, selling a house is not rocket science. They know that, and soon you will too. Just follow the simple selling steps below. And, if you have any questions, call us and one of our representatives will try to answer any questions you may have. You are not alone - For Sale By Owner.com will help you every step of the way. We are one of the largest and fastest growing real estate service companies in America. In fact, our web site is one of the top-five most visited real estate sites in America. Thousands of eager home buyers visit us everyday. Perhaps one of them is looking for a home just like yours. Over the past five years, we've helped sell thousands of homes, saving home owners millions of dollars. So let's get started. 8 Easy Steps to Selling a Home Yourself Step 1. Preparing your home to sell - make it look great Presentation is everything! Home buyers are attracted to clean, spacious and attractive houses. Your goal is to dazzle buyers. Brighten-up the house and remove all clutter from counter tops, tables and rooms. Scrub-down your house from top to bottom. Make it sparkle. Simple aesthetic improvements such as trimming trees, planting flowers, fixing squeaking steps, broken tiles, shampooing rugs and even re-painting a faded bedroom will greatly enhance the appeal of your house. Also, make sure your house smells good. That's right, clean out the cat box and light mildly scented candles. Invite a neighbor over to walk through your house like a buyer would. Get their opinion on how it "shows." The stuffed donkey in the family room may have to go to your in-laws for a while. Step 2. Pricing your home effectively Do not over price your home. Over-pricing when you sell a home reduces buyer interest, makes competing homes look like better values, and can lead to mortgage rejections once the appraisal is in. Over-pricing when selling a home is the single biggest reason why many "for sale by owner" home sellers don't sell their homes successfully. Remember: the home selling market dictates the price (not what you think it should be worth). One of the best ways to correctly price your house when selling is to find out how much other homes, similar to your own, recently sold for in your neighborhood. Talk to home sellers, buyers and check out the real estate listings in your local newspaper. Typically, if you set the price of your home at 5 to 10 percent above the market price, you are likely to end up with an offer close to your home's true value. Also, you may try calculating the cost per square foot of your home compared to the house selling prices in your area (divide list price by square footage of livable space). If your house has more features or other desirable qualities, you may want to set a slightly higher house selling price. The easiest way to accurately price your home is to contact your local home appraiser . Finally, set your house selling price just under a whole number, such as $169,900 rather than $170,000. Step 3. Get a real estate lawyer Even though it's an additional expense, it may be wise to hire a lawyer who will protect your interests throughout the entire transaction. An experienced real estate lawyer can help you evaluate complicated offers (those with a variety of conditions), act as an escrow agent to hold the down payment, evaluate complex mortgages and/or leases with options to buy, review contracts and handle your home's closing process. They can also tell you what things, by law, you must disclose to buyers prior to a sale and can also help you avoid inadvertently discriminating against any potential buyers. In some areas, title companies will handle all aspects of the transaction and have in-house legal departments that can assist you with legal issues that may arise. To locate a title company in your area, click here . Unless you're significantly experienced in the home selling process, having a real estate lawyer at your side provides peace-of-mind. You know you've got someone looking out for your interests, not just the buyers. To locate a lawyer in your area, click here Step 4. Marketing your home Exposure, exposure, exposure. That's how sellers sell their home fast. For Sale By Owner.com provides extensive home exposure because over 700,000 unique visitors come to the web site each month (that's Internet-speak for new people). In fact, For Sale By Owner.com is one of the top-five most visited real estate web sites in the U.S. getting literally millions of visitors looking to buy or sell a home. We spend tens of thousands of dollars a month to assure that For Sale By Owner.com is prominently placed on Internet search engines so buyers can easily find our site throughout process of selling your home. If your home is in a market where For Sale By Owner.com has a mass-distributed magazine, your home's exposure will be even greater because they can be found at thousands of locations frequented by buyers that include grocery stores, shopping centers, convenience stores and restaurants (the magazine is in over 40 markets nationwide). Writing your sell ad While For Sale By Owner.com allows you a 3,000 word description of your house (try to afford that in a newspaper ad), your advertising copy should be thorough yet short, simple and to-the-point. Long, flowery prose will not make your house sound more appealing. It will simply make it harder for the home buyer to read. Make sure to provide the critical facts buyers are looking for such as the house's number of bathrooms, a re-modeled kitchen, etc. Most home buyers quickly scan ads, so it is important that your house stands out. For example, you may want to add a theme-line such as "Priced below market" or "Great schools." Stay away from industry jargon and use language that makes home buyers comfortable. Survey our web site and see how others have written their ads. You will quickly see which are "buyer friendly." Copy their approach for your ad. Home Photos: Yes, a picture is worth a thousand words If you are taking a photo of your home, be sure that the home's yard/driveway is uncluttered. Remove bikes, garbage cans and parked cars. The same applies for interior shots. People are looking to buy your house, not your possessions. Think of furniture as props and the room a stage. Move things around if you have to. Also, take lots of house photos. Film is cheap...your home deserves quality. The more you shoot, the better the odds are that you'll get a few really good shots. Lawn signs Lawn signs are one the most important marketing tools for home sellers. They attract attention to your home. Professionally-produced signs (like the ones we can send to you) telegraph to home buyers a "quality" image of your house. Directional signs also help drive buyers to your property, especially if you do not live on a busy street. Open houses Open houses are sometimes a good way to attract buyers to your home. Typically, real estate agents conduct open houses for two reasons; 1. Clients expect them 2. They are a good way to attract buyers, not just for the open house but for all houses for sale in the Real Estate Agent's area (yes, your competition). The fact is that very few houses sell due to a open house itself. Home Brochures/Information sheets It is a good idea to create an information sheet (with a photo) about your home to give potential buyers. Consider printing copies of your ad from For Sale By Owner.com to give to people who visit your home. The MLS The MLS or Multiple Listing Service can also help market your home, particularly to real estate agents who may know of buyers seeking a property like yours. The MLS is a directory used by real estate agents to announce to other agents that they have a home for sale. In many selling markets, For Sale By Owner.com can put your house on the MLS (for an additional fee). However, if a real estate agent finds you a buyer after seeing your home on the MLS, you must usually pay that agent a 2.5% to 3% commission (the law states that all commissions are negotiable, however). You are your home's best salesman As every salesman knows, to be effective you have to really know your product. And who knows your home better than you? Certainly not a real estate agent, who, in all likelihood, has spent only a few moments in your house before showing it to prospective buyers. Sell your neighborhood as well as your house. Show enthusiasm, but don't get caught-up talking too much about how "your daughter spent the best years of her life in this very room." Step 5. Negotiating an offer on your home When a home buyer makes an offer (this is often presented to you directly from the buyer or through their lawyer), you should consult with your attorney. Buyers and sellers have an Attorney Review Period, which is usually three days, to cancel or amend the offer. The offer becomes a contract at the end of the Attorney Review Period, and is binding. Many of your home's offers can be complicated and contain special clauses that favor the buyer. Purchase price isn't everything. Carefully consider the purchase contract's other terms and conditions. Too many contingencies can leave loopholes and cause a deal to collapse. Especially avoid contingencies that favor the house's buyer, such as linking the escrow closing date to the buyer's sale of their current home. If the buyer insists on such terms, include a so-called kick-out clause in the contract that will allow you to consider other offers if the buyer isn't able to sell within a certain period of time. Assess your buyer's financial qualifications Is the buyer pre-approved? How much of a loan is the buyer seeking? Unless you are in an active market, lenders tend to shy away from underwriting a deal in which the purchase price is higher than the nearest comparable sale and the buyer is putting less than 10% down. If this is the case, your buyer may not be able to obtain financing. Know the home selling market How you judge an offer also can depend on market conditions. If the selling market is slow, you may feel vulnerable, especially if circumstances are pressing you to sell. Make sure any offer you accept does not keep you in escrow longer than 30 days. In a hot market where multiple offers are likely, be wary of countering more than one offer at a time (you could end up in legal trouble if two buyers both accept your counter offer). Also be wary of offers that promise more money but contain poor contract terms (long escrow, multiple contingencies, etc.). If you feel the home's offer is insufficient, make a counter offer. Rarely is a first offer the buyer's absolute highest price they are willing to pay. Negotiating is part of the home selling process. Again, your lawyer should review the details of all offers. Step 6. Home inspections All standard real estate contracts are going to give the prospective home buyer the right to inspect your property - so be prepared. Under a general inspection you are obligated to make major repairs to appliances, plumbing, septic, electrical and heating systems - or the buyer may cancel the offer. The inspection will also include your property's roof, as well as a termite inspection (in some states, house sellers must provide proof that the home is termite free). If you are concerned about how your home will fair when inspected, you may want to visit your local inspector . They can conduct an inspection for you before a potential buyer has one done. This way, you can address the problems before a buyer stumbles upon them. Once the inspections are complete, the buyer makes an application to a mortgage lender. Step 7. Buyer appraisals and other details The mortgage lender will order an appraisal of your home to make sure they are not paying more than the house is worth. They may also order a surveyor to make sure that the property boundaries are properly laid out. They will also order a title search to determine if there are any liens against your property. These tasks are all the responsibility of the buyer and/or their attorney. At this point too, the mortgage company will issue a commitment . Again, the buyer (and their attorney) must complete all conditions listed on the mortgage commitment. Prior to closing, you should notify your lender that you will be paying off your mortgage. After a closing date has been agreed to, you should contact your utility providers and advise them of your final billing date. Step 8. Closing The day of the closing , the home's buyer will do a "walk through" of the property to make sure all agreed repairs are completed and that the home is in the same condition as when the buyer made their offer. If problems arise that this point, the closing can still take place with funds held in escrow to remedy the problem. Closings usually occur 30 - 45 days after you have signed the sales contract. Depending on what state you reside in, you may close with an attorney, or with a title company. At the closing, all monies will be collected, any existing loans or liens will be paid, the deed will be transferred, and insurance will be issued insuring a free and clear title. The home seller will receive the proceeds of their home in one to two business days after the closing. Conclusion This step-by-step home selling guide is a general overview of the process when selling a home. Each state has slightly different laws and customs as they relate to the transaction process. Selling a home yourself can be time consuming, but the financial rewards can be tremendous. With help from For Sale By Owner.com , we try to make the process of home selling on your own as easy as possible. For Sale By Owner.com Your experts in selling a home on your own. -- Privacy & Disclaimer Partner With Us Career Opportunities Press Room Contact Us Buying A Home Your Credit Report Terms and Conditions Home Selling Tips Selling Your Home © 1997-2005 For Sale By Owner.com Your source for selling a home on your own. We make the home selling process a cinch. Sell real estate, sell a home, and sell your house, fsbo. Real estate selling, home selling, house selling. Site Map Home

real estate prices in

Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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