Home Equity Conversion (HEC).

Home Equity Conversions: Reverse Mortgages Home Equity Conversions: Reverse Mortgages Authors: Celia Ray Hayhoe, Ph.D, CFP®, Family Resource Management Cooperative Extension Specialist and Stacey Williamson, Graduate Assistant; Virginia Tech Publication Number 354-025, Posted April 2004 Many senior adults are finding it hard to live on their fixed retirement incomes and are looking for ways to supplement those incomes. For some, the largest asset they own is their home, but they do not want to sell their home and move. For these individuals, there is an option called Home Equity Conversion (HEC). One type of home equity conversion is a reverse mortgage. The equity or cash value of the house is used to provide income to repay the loan. All reverse mortgage options are not the same. They have different eligibility requirements, income amounts, timing of payments, interest rates, and/or initial costs. Homeowners should compare the different options, keeping in mind their goals and needs. Advantages The value of your house, not your income, is used to determine eligibility. You can receive a lump sum, a line of credit, or a monthly amount, without having to make a monthly repayment. You do not have to sell your home and move, and can continue to live in the same familiar surroundings. You do not have to worry about losing your home to foreclosure since the payments are made out of your equity in the home, not from your income. The loan must be repaid when the house is no longer used as your personal residence. However, the lender can only look to the proceeds from the sale of the house for repayment. They cannot go to your heirs if the house sells for less than what was borrowed. Money can be used for any purpose. You must attend a free HECM/HUD approved counseling session to see if this type of mortgage is right for you. Disadvantages Interest for a reverse mortgage is compounded, and cannot be deducted on income taxes until you repay it. The income you receive decreases the equity in your home, and the equity may not be adequate for your future needs or for your estate. Interest rates and initial costs (application fees, points and closing costs) are usually higher for a reverse mortgage than for other equity loans. Income ends when you sell your home or no longer use it as a principal residence. Payments may affect Supplemental Security Income and Medicaid payments. You must attend a free HECM/HUD approved counseling session. This may add time to the process of obtaining a loan. You may need to pay off your existing mortgage out of the proceeds of your reverse mortgage. You will be required to maintain the house, pay the taxes, and carry property insurance. Eligibility You could be eligible if you own your own home, use the home as your principal residence, and are at least 62 years of age. You must also have adequate equity in the home. A lender looks at the equity in the home plus any expected appreciation or depreciation in the value of the home to calculate a base amount. The costs associated with any reverse mortgage loan (application fees, interest rates, closing costs, initial charges, sales commissions, and homeowner's insurance) also must be considered. All reverse mortgages currently available in Virginia require homeowner's insurance. The lender and the homeowner must work together to determine the type of payment, the payment amount, and the time period. This is determined not only by the calculations of the base amount by the lender, but also by keeping your goals and financial needs in mind. Income Income from a reverse mortgage is not taxable, and will not affect Medicare eligibility or benefits. But the added income can affect both Supplemental Security Income and Medicaid eligibility and benefits for Virginia residents. Confused? A home equity conversion is not a home equity loan! Home-equity loans require that a homeowner has enough income to pay back the loan, and the payments are made in monthly amounts. A home-equity loan would not work for the majority of senior adults who are living on limited fixed incomes and who could not afford a loan payment. Example A wide variety of loan options are available depending upon your age, the amount of equity available, the time period of the loan, and the way payments are disbursed. For example, Mary Jones, a 75-year-old widow whose home is her principal residence, is looking at a ten-year reverse mortgage that will provide her with additional monthly income of approximately $450. At the end of the ten years the monthly income payment will stop. But because her loan is through an insured lender (loans offered by HUD approved lenders have government guarantees), the loan will not have to be repaid until she sells the home, moves, or dies. Home Equity Conversion Checklist These questions can to help you determine if you are eligible for a home equity conversion (HEC). YES NO 1. Are you 62 years of age or older? _____ _____ 2. Is your mortgage paid off in full or nearly so? _____ _____ 3. Do you use your home as your primary residence? _____ _____ If you have answered yes to questions 1 through 3, you might want to consult with an HEC lender for specific information. The following questions will help to determine if you are eligible for a Housing and Urban Development (HUD) home equity conversion. A HUD-HEC is similar to other HECs but with additional requirements for the property and residents. 4. Is your home a single-family dwelling? _____ _____ 5. Will your home probably meet HUD minimum property standards? _____ _____ 6. Is your family income less than 80% of area median? _____ _____ If you have answered yes to questions 1 through 6; you might want to consult with a HUD-HEC lender for specific information. The following is a list of HEC/Reverse mortgage programs. FHA - HECM (Home Equity Conversion Mortgage) Guaranteed by FHA/HUD Flexible Income Payment Option Growing Line of Credit Maximum Lending Limit - $ 280,749 Cash Account Flexible Income Payment Options Growing Line of Credit Higher Equity Release Options No Maximum Lending Limit HomeKeeper by Fannie Mae Guaranteed by Fannie Mae Line of Credit Options Maximum Lending Limit - $ 322,700 Zero Point Cash Account Closing Costs Limited Minimum Draw at Closing Required Interest Rate Cap No Maximum Lending Limit The following lenders offered HEC/Reverse mortgages as of March 2004: Mortgage Capital Investors Equity Division 6571 Edsall Road Springfield, VA 22151 (703) 941-0711 East West Mortgage - HECM, HK, CA 4321 Northview Drive Bowie, MD 20716 (866) 9REVERSE [(866) 973-8377] (301) 809-1568, ext. 225 Financial Freedom Senior Funding Corp. (Subsidiary of Lehman Brothers, FSB) - HECM, HK, CA (800) 368-3254 Reverse Mortgages of the Mid-Atlantic - HECM, HK, CA (800) 745-0102 Suntrust 564 Lynnhaven Parkway Virginia Beach, VA 23452 (757) 431-4876 Fidelity & Trust Mortgage, Inc. - HECM, HK, CA 7229 Hanover Parkway Suite C Greenbelt MD 20770 (703) 273-3797 (800) 458-4624 People's Choice Mortgage - HECM, HK, CA (757) 564-8596 Wells Fargo Home Mortgage - HECM, HK (888) 292-1180 Inclusion on this list of lenders does not imply endorsement by Virginia Cooperative Extension, nor does omission from this list imply a lack of endorsement. Home Equity Conversion Comparison Worksheet Name of Lender Features Payment Option: ----------------------- ----------------------- ----------------------- Lump Sum Option Line of Credit Option Monthly Benefit Option APR (Annual Percentage Rate) Time Period Application Costs Closing Costs Sales Commissions Insurance Costs Other Initial Charges For More Information AARP Home Equity Information Center 601 E. Street NW Washington D.C. 20004 (202) 638-2863 http://www.aarp.org/revmort/ Reverse Mortgage Money (866) 363-1914 requestinfo@reversemortgagemoney.com American Credit Counselors Tudor Square, Ste. 10 211 Roanoke St. Christiansburg, VA 24073 (800) 926-0042 virginia@cccsswva.org http://www.americancredit.org HECM Counseling National Center for Home Equity Conversion 360 Robert Street North Suite 403 St. Paul, MN 55101 (651) 222-6775 People Incorporated 1173 W Main St Abingdon, VA 24210-2428 (540) 623-9000 HECM Counseling Original authors: Patricia Gorman, graduate assistant, and Kathleen Parrott, former Extension housing specialist, Virginia View this document in PDF format Visit Virginia Cooperative Extension

Denver Real Estate Site

Denver real estate; financial glossary Financial terms glossary Common Mistakes to Avoid Home buying mistakes can be avoided, you need to know what some of them are. Getting a Loan Follow these steps prior to applying for your home loan. The Mortgage Loan Application A few minutes of preparation can save you hours of hassle, here's the list of what you will need. Interest Rates Lock in your rate with confidence, after you have read these facts. Loan Approval What constitutes as loan approval in Denver? Earnest Money Why is it necessary to pay earnest money before I buy the house? Closing Costs Home buying costs vary by region, here are sample costs for Denver. Down payment for a mortgage Learn about the various allowable sources to obtain your down payment. What is PMI? PMI, do you really need it? FICO Scores FICO scoring is a standard, you need to understand the basics to protect your credit! The steps to getting a VA Loan The steps to getting a VA loan, do you need one? What does it take to get one? Reverse Mortgages Reverse Mortgages have many benefits for older home owners. search Denver Real Estate Site Glossary of Financial Terms Amortization - The gradual reduction of debt by means of periodic payments sufficient to pay principal and interest and thereby liquidate the debt. ARM - Adjustable Rate Mortgage. A loan where the interest rate can change according to the index, caps, and margin. Appraisal - An unbiased, professional estimate of a property's value based on style, appearance, quality of construction, improvements, usefulness, and the comparable value of nearby properties. Balloon Mortgage - A short term loan, usually 5 to 7 years, that features a fixed interest rate, and a final large balloon payment for balance of the mortgage. Borrower - A person who receives funds in the form of a loan with the obligation of repaying the loan in full with interest, if applicable. Broker - One who, for a commission or fee, brings parties together and assists in negotiating contracts between them. In real estate transactions, the broker usually brings together the buyer and the seller. Caps - The maximum or minimum amount by which the interest rate on an adjustable rate mortgage can change over each adjustment and over its life. For example a 2/6 cap means that the ARM cannot adjust more than 2% up or down each adjustment, or 6% from the start rate during its life. Chattel - Personal property. Closing - The final settlement of the transfer of property. Involves the buyer's signing the mortgage note and an exchange of title. Closing Agent - Assures that all documentation related to the sale of a house has been completed properly, including the title search and title insurance. The closing agent explains all closing documents to the buyer and the seller, obtains their signatures where necessary, and records the documents. Closing Costs - Fees and other charges paid by the buyer and seller at closing. Closing Statement - A financial disclosure giving an account of all funds received and expected at the closing, including the escrow deposits for taxes, hazard insurance, and mortgage insurance. Co-Borrower - The person who is sharing the mortgage responsibility with the borrower. Contingency - A clause within an Offer to Purchase or within the Contract For Sale that requires a certain condition be met before proceeding t closing. Contract - An agreement between two or more parties to do or not to do a particular thing. Contract for Sale - AKA: Conditional Sales Contract - A sales contract whereby the borrower has possession of the property, but seller retains ownership of the property until the buyer has fulfilled the obligations put forth in the contract. Conventional Mortgage - A Mortgage not insured by the government, such as FHA or VA. Counter Offer - The offer made by one party (buyer or seller) in response to an offer presented by the other. Credit Report - A report to a prospective lender on the credit standing of a prospective borrower, used to help determine credit worthiness. Debt-To-Income Ratio - Long-term debt expense as a percentage of monthly income. Deed - The instrument that transfers title from the seller to the buyer. Down Payment - The buyer's payment to the seller at closing for a percentage of the purchase price required by the buyer's mortgage loan. Earnest Money - Money paid by the buyer to the seller at the time the Offer to Purchase is presented. Generally, earnest money is applied to the purchase price. Equity - The home owner's interest in a property. It is different between fair market value and the current amount the owner owes on the property. Fair Market Value - The price at which a property is transferred between a willing buyer and a willing seller, each of whom has a reasonable knowledge of all pertinent facts and neither being under any compulsion to buy or sell. FHA - Federal Housing Administration - A division of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Its main activity is the insuring of residential mortgage loans made by private lender. FHLMC - Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation - A private corporation created by Congress to support the secondary mortgage market. It sells participation certificates secured by pools of conventional mortgage loans, their principal and interest guaranteed by the federal government through FHLMC. Popularly known as Freddie Mac. First Mortgage - A mortgage that is a first lien on the property pledged as security. FNMA - Federal National Mortgage Association - A private corporation created by Congress to support the secondary mortgage market. FNMA sells mortgage - backed securities backed by pools of conventional loans. Payment of principal and interest on these securities is backed by the US Government. Popularly known as Fannie Mae. Gross Monthly Income - The amount of consistent and stable income that an individual receives each month. averaged over a period of time. This amount includes overtime pay, bonuses, commissions, and income from dividends and interest, provided that the individual can show a consistent history of receiving such income. Hazard Insurance - A contract whereby, for an agreed premium, one party undertakes to compensate the other for loss on a specific subject by specified hazards, such as acts of God or war. Homeowners Association - An organization of homeowners residing within a particular development whose major purpose is to maintain and provide community facilities and services for the common enjoyment of the residents. Housing Expense Ratio - A home owner's percentage of their monthly income. Index - A published financial benchmark used to help determine the interest rate for an adjustable rate mortgage on its adjustment. The margin is added to it. Interest - Money paid for the use of money - that is, money paid for a loan. Loan-To-Value Ratio - The relationship between the amount of a home loan and the total value of the property. For example if you receive a loan of $95,000 on ah home that costs $100,000, the loan-to-value ratio is 95%. Margin - The amount added to the index to help determine the new interest rate of an adjustable rate mortgage. Mortgage Insurance - A policy that allows mortgage lenders to recover part of their financial losses if a borrower fails to fully re-pay a loan. Mortgage insurance makes it possible to buy a home with as little as 5% down. Offer To Purchase - A legally-binding, written contract that declares how much a buyer will pay for a house, provided certain condition are met. Origination Fee - Similar to a point, it is a fee paid to lenders for originating the mortgage. PITI - Principle, Interest, Taxes, and Insurance - the four main parts of a monthly mortgage payment. Planned Unit Development -(PUD) - A subdivision having lots or areas owned in common and reserved for the use of some or all of the owners of the separately owned lots. Discount Points - One point equals one percent of the total mortgage amount. This is a fee paid to lenders to get lower rate on the mortgage. Pre-Approval - Having the loan processed, underwritten, and obtaining loan approval before an Offer to Purchase has been accepted by a seller. Pre-Qualify - Preliminary indications on how large a mortgage a buyer can quality for. Qualify - Ability to meet a lender's mortgage approval requirements. Servicer - After a mortgage loan closes, the loan servicer collects the payments, manages escrow accounts, pays taxes and insurance, and manages delinquent payments. Lenders may often sell or "release" servicing to another business, which means that a home buyer will not necessarily send house payments to the original lender. Title - The right of ownership and possession of a property. Title Insurance - A policy that protects a buyer against errors or omissions or defects in the title of the property. Veterans Administration - (VA)An independent agency of the federal government created in 1930. The VA home loan guaranty program is designed to encourage lenders to offer long-term, low down payment mortgages to eligible veterans by guaranteeing the lender against loss Home Buying Directory Buyer Broker Down Payment How to Qualify for a Mortgage Loan Application Locking in Interest Rate Earnest Money Loan Application Checklist Fico Scores Moving List Moving Pets What is PMI? Finance Glossary Financing Your Home Reverse Mortage Home Buying Process Closing Costs Kristal Kraft , ABR, CIPS, CRS Licensed real estate broker selling Colorado Since 1984 The Berkshire Group Realtors, Inc. 3801 E. Florida Ave, Suite 502, Denver, Colorado U.S.A. 80210 800-319-7738 toll free | 303-589-2022 direct | 720-554-7961 fax E-mail: Kristal Kraft, Realtor 1998-2005, © Reflective Motion Inc. | Privacy Policy | Site Credits | Disclaimer | Site Map ~2 ~3 ~4 Denver Relocation | Buy a Home In Denver | Sell a Home in Denver | Denver Map | Denver Neighborhood Profiles | Denver Sales Statistics | International Real Estate | A Bio | My Favorite Places | Real Estate Resources Denver Loft Homes | The Berkshire Group | Buy and Sell Denver | We Sell Denver | Denver Colorado Real Estate | Denver Blog

real estate investing isnt

MSN Money - The real risks of investing in real estate MSN Home Hotmail My MSN Sign In Money S earch MSN Money: Help Home News Banking Investing Planning Taxes My Money Portfolio Loans Insurance Investing Home Portfolio Markets Stocks Funds ETFs Commentary Brokers CNBC TV MSN Money Insight Jubak's Journal SuperModels Start Investing Strategy Lab Company Focus Mutual Funds Street Patrol Other Views Contrarian Chronicles TheStreet.com Resources Commentary Index Decision Centers Start Investing Mutual Funds Find Hot Stocks Simple Strategies Power Tools Investing For Income Real Estate Related Links Expert Picks Market Dispatches CNBC Stock Picks Message Boards Print-friendly version Send this to a friend Research any REIT Find top-performing mutual funds Sortable database of SEC filings Find stock winners with our screener Personal finance bookshelf Find It! Article Index Finance Q&A Tools Index Site Map The Basics The real risks of investing in real estate advertisement With prices soaring, real estate looks tantalizing -- but the margin of error is shrinking. Forget the get-rich-quick plans. Pay attention to the numbers. By Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine For Derrik Dyka, the biggest obstacle to successful real estate investing isnt a meltdown in property values or tenants who wreck an apartment or dont pay their rent. "Its overconfidence," says Dyka, a 34-year-old Minneapolis investor who turns old apartments into new condominiums. If youre expecting to cash in on the 21st centurys first gold rush without breaking a sweat, it would be wise to take Dykas words to heart. The margin of error for making money in real estate is closing fast. Its not surprising that real estate tempts so many Americans today. Over the past five years, home prices have soared and rags-to-riches tales abound. But so much real estate has become so expensive that Real Estate Research Corp. in Chicago reports that many real estate pros say now is a better time to sell than buy. As San Diego real estate investor Chuck Wise observes about the area where he operates, todays buyers are like "lambs being shorn." Start investing with $100. Explore our new ETF center. Of course, that doesnt mean that all deals are doomed to fail. But it does mean that its time for would-be investors to pay more attention to the perils of owning property, not just the potential profits. Watch your cash flow The most common entree into real estate investing is the single-family house. Investors bought almost one-fourth of all homes sold in 2004, according to the National Association of Realtors. If youre one of those buyers and your income from that property (after taxes) exceeds your expenses by $100 or $200 a month, youre in good shape. But because prices and property taxes are so high in many areas, and theres so much competition for attractive rental properties, its increasingly difficult to find deals that generate enough income to more than cover your expenses -- whats called positive cash flow. In areas such as the leafy suburbs of New York City and Boston, where a modest three-bedroom house can easily cost $600,000, theres no way you can collect enough rent to cover the steep property taxes and payments on a $500,000 mortgage. Figure monthly out-of-pocket expenses of more than $3,000, if not $4,000. The pool of renters who will pay that much is small. Related news and commentary on MSN Money • Nothing quick about getting rich with real estate • Do you have what it takes to be a landlord? • Don't bite off too much house • How to find a good investment property • 7 creative ways to buy your first house • Decision Center: Home financing So be ready to set your sights lower and get your hands dirty. Instead of a well-located home in pristine condition, look for a fixer-upper off the beaten track for maybe $150,000 that you can rent for $1,000 a month. The numbers work if youre willing to spend weekends, say, painting the walls and, if youre capable, making repairs that would otherwise require professional help. The hidden profit from home improvements is why "ugly real estate often makes more money than the nice stuff," says Kelley Pace, head of Louisiana State Universitys real-estate research institute. Mind the cap You can quickly figure out whether a house or condo is likely to generate positive cash flow. For more complex properties, such as a small office building or retail space, check the cap rate, a single number that can tell you if youre overpaying. The cap rate -- cap is short for capitalization -- is a propertys net operating income as a percentage of its price. The figure is real estates version of a bond yield. If a property sells for $500,000 and generates net income of $50,000 (rents minus expenses), the cap rate is 50,000 divided by 500,000, or 10%. The lower the cap rate, the more you pay for each dollar of annual income. In 2000, the average cap rate on commercial property in the U.S. was 10%. Since then, because of relentless price appreciation, the average cap rate has sunk to 8%. That alone suggests that wringing further gains out of commercial property is unlikely. If you want to invest in a commercial property, aim for a purchase price that results in a 10% cap rate. But remember that the cap rate also depends on how much you collect in rent. Ask the broker for details about the tenants leases, including how rents compare with those of other nearby properties and when the leases are up for renewal. The property should come with an information packet that is more like a stock prospectus than a real estate agents fact sheet on a single-family house. If necessary, hire a property inspector. Then take all the information to a lawyer who specializes in real estate. If you have any doubts about the property, walk away. Page 1 of 2 Story continues on next page Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. © 2005. All rights reserved. Quotes supplied by ComStock , an Interactive Data company. MSN Money's editorial goal is to provide a forum for personal finance and investment ideas. Our articles, columns, message board posts and other features should not be construed as investment advice, nor does their appearance imply an endorsement by Microsoft of any specific security or trading strategy. An investor's best course of action must be based on individual circumstances. © 2005 Microsoft MSN Privacy Legal Advertise Feedback Help

Buy House Plans Having

How to Buy House Plans - eHow.com Clear Instructions on How To Do (just about) Everything Web eHow.com Home Finance & Business Center Real Estate How to Buy House Plans Having trouble finding an existing house that you want to buy? Consider buying plans and building your own home. That set of blueprints, with or without minor modifications, may well be the first step you take to create your dream home. Steps: 1. Determine the size of the house you can afford to build. The National Association of Home Builders (nahb.org) has information on the average cost per square foot for new homes in any area. Multiply the square footage of the home you want by the average cost per square foot to determine a ballpark cost. 2. Draw up a detailed, prioritized list of what you want your home to include in terms of number of bedrooms and baths, and garage size. What are must-haves and what can you live without? Include outdoor features such as porches, decks and a pool. 3. Ask yourself how you want to use the house now and in the future. Do you like to entertain? Do you want a casual great room or formal dining and living rooms? Will your home eventually need to accommodate aging parents, returning adult children or grandchildren? Do you need a separate entrance for an au pair? 4. Consider your lot requirements, such as sloping, corner or zero-lot line (where one side of the house sits on one lot line). Foundation options (basement, crawlspace or slab) will be dependent on what the lot will allow, based on the grade and other factors. If you've found plans for your ideal home, buy them and then look for a lot on which that particular layout will work. Otherwise, if you find the perfect lot (see How to Buy a Lot ), you'll need to be pickier as you choose your home plans in order to be sure that they'll fit on your land. 5. Browse house plan catalogs and magazines found at home improvement stores or bookstores. Many architects offer plans for sale online. Some sites let you specify exactly what features you want, such as a certain size kitchen or number of bedrooms. 6. Evaluate the plan for overall size, traffic patterns, appealing exterior materials, efficient use of space and materials, and well-planned work and storage areas. Ask a contractor to review the blueprints as well. 7. Expect to spend anywhere from $400 to $1,300 for plans depending on the project size and level of complexity. Buy up to eight nonreproducible sets--enough to distribute to tradespeople, contractors and lenders, or one reproducible master set. 8. Hire an architect to review your plans. He or she can make any modifications you think are necessary. See How to Hire an Architect . Overall Tips: Chances are good that plans will need to be adapted to meet your family's specific needs, so don't be afraid to make modifications with the help of an architect. Seismic and local building requirements will also likely mandate changes. What to look for: Plans that suit your needs Architect to modify plans Lot requirements Please Share Your Tips with Us More Resources: Contribute to eHow: Write an eHow Article Suggest a Topic Give Us Feedback on This Article Related eHows: Hire a Builder Have Your Home Custom Built Buy a Lot Hire an Architect Pull Building Permits Project Details: Skill Advisory: Moderate New! -- Related eHows: Hire a Builder Have Your Home Custom Built Buy a Lot Hire an Architect Pull Building Permits Check out Thousands of How-To Solutions in eHow's Centers Automotive Careers & Education Computers & Home Electronics Family & Relationships Finance & Business Food & Entertaining Health Hobbies & Games Holidays & Traditions Home & Garden Personal Care & Style Pets Sports & Fitness Travel How to: --? Web eHow.com Home | Site Map | About Us | How To Books | Link to eHow Subscribe to the eHow of the Day Mailing List : Have the eHow of the Day appear on your My Yahoo! Page: Add the eHow of the Day to your RSS reader: © 1999-2005 eHow, Inc. How things get done. Use of this web site constitutes acceptance of the eHow Terms of Use and Privacy .

real estate prices in

Towards Liberty International Society for Individual Liberty > Don't Get Stuck Paying "Zombie" Debt – Towards Liberty – A commentary on current events by Jarret Wollstein The Coming Real Estate Collapse – 05-24-05 – As real estate prices in much of the U.S. continues to soar, evidence is growing that both commercial and residential real estate is greatly over-priced in many of the country's hottest markets – including New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., Miami, and much of California. One clear indication that real estate is overpriced is that rents are now a fraction of mortgage payments, and are continuing to fall in terms of real dollars. For instance, Forbes reports that cash return on income-producing real estate has fallen from 9% a few years ago, to just 5% to 7% now, and is likely to go lower. You can clearly see why rents are falling in overheated markets like California's Silicon Valley. In the San Francisco-San Jos corridor, there is currently over 33 million square feet of un-rented (and in many cases never occupied) commercial space. Last year, just 65 thousand square feet of this enormous inventory was rented. At that rate, it will take over 507 years to rent all unoccupied commercial real estate in Silicon Valley. Since most investors can't wait over half a millennium for returns on their capital, what's more likely is that commercial real estate prices in this "hot market" will soon fall like a rock. Another indication that real estate is poised for a fall, that fewer and fewer people can afford today's astronomically-priced houses. For instance, in California – where ordinary 2,000 square foot, 3-bedroom homes are going for $500,000 to $2,000,000+ – less than one family in six now qualifies to repurchase their own house. Another indications that real estate is ready for a fall: Of 362 U.S. metropolitan areas, about 15% are experiencing a housing "boom" – a three-year, inflation adjusted price gain of 30% or more – according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That's the highest number of boom markets ever recorded in the 30 years that they have been tracked. In Americas hottest real estate markets – including the big cities in New York, Florida and California – housing prices went up by 15% to 35% in the past year alone. This is clearly unsustainable. No matter how low interest rates are and no matter how many schemes George Bush comes up with for an "ownership society," it's clear that we are rapidly reaching the point when hardly anyone can afford to buy a new house in a hot real estate market, without putting their financial future in jeopardy. So what's propping up the real estate bubble, and causing housing prices to go ever-higher, even as rents fall and commercial landlords face enormous vacancy rates? Besides artificially low interest rates, the answer, in a word, is speculation. Up to one residence in three in California is now purchased not to live in, but for resale, according to the San Francisco Chronicle . The comparable figure may be as high as one property in two in the Las Vegas area. In downtown Miami, 80% of approximately 35,000 new condos now under construction or just completed, are owned by investors – not people who actually plan on living in them – according to MoneyNews.com. Call it the triumph of delusion over reality. I can't tell you how many people have told me that real estate price "can't fall, because if they did, they would be bankrupt." In other words, because they want prices to stay up, they must stay up. If you believe that, there is a nice three-bedroom fixer-upper on a dirt lot, and on the edge of an eroding cliff, in Pacifica, California, I'd like to sell you for just $2.5 million. Buy this bargain now, before the price really goes up! (This is a real example.) In the current frenzied real market, self-delusion is rampant. In Florida's red-hot real estate market, one Miami realtor recently told the New York Times , "South Florida is working off a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past." That's precisely what executives of dot coms told investors to justify their astronomical stock prices, just before the collapse – which triggered the destruction of over $3 trillion in stock value. Unfortunately, for many overextended home owners, property prices aren't immune to the laws of economics. Property prices can and do fall in America, as witnessed by the bear markets of 1974-75, 1980-82 and 1990-92. A personal example: One Northern California home owner I know bought his 2,000 sq. ft. house for $750,000 in 1989. In 1992, he was couldn't get $450,000 for his property, and was forced to declare bankruptcy after he lost his job. Millions of overextended American families with "interest only" and adjustable rate mortgages will likely find themselves in the same boat, when mortgage interest rates edge up above 7% or 8% – which is likely by the end of this year. (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that we can expect at least a 2.25% increase in interest rates in 2005, on top of the 2% increase in 2004.) The brutal financial reality is that a mere 2% rise in mortgage rates, can increase ARM payments by as much as 40% – an unsustainable burden for families living on the edge. One way or another, at best , the U.S. real estate bubble has 1 to 2 more years to run before it collapses. If you or your children are among those living in overpriced homes you can barely afford, NOW is the time to sell, when the market is at or near its peak, and before prices drop by 30% or more – and they find themselves living in a Motel 6 or in your basement. To minimize taxes on the profits, reinvest in a home in a small town or rural area where prices arent so absurd, and bank the rest. Please stay in touch! Add yourself to our e-mail list. Two times per month we send an update on the activities of our members and new features at ISIL.org. Simply enter your e-mail address here and click the button. You can easily remove yourself (unsubscribe) at any time. E-mail us at isil@isil.org if you have any personal questions or comments. E-mail address: Subscribe Unsubscribe