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Property Line - Your Commercial Property Listing Resource Username Password -- Username: Password: Need help logging in? Need help logging in? -- -- LIVE HELP CONTACT US IMMEDIATE ACCESS Registration is an easy three-step process that offers instant access to the complete range of tools Property Line has to offer. Your Country: Please select your country United States Canada Afghanistan Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Anguilla Antarctica Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Ashmore Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil British Virgin Islands Brunei Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Central African Rep Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo (Brazzaville) Congo, Democratic Rep Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Finland France Gabon Gambia, The Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Laos Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Micronesia, Federated Moldova Monaco Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nauru Nepal Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Romania Russia Rwanda Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent Samoa San Marino Sao Tome Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Tuvalu Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Vatican City Venezuela Vietnam Western Sahara Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe Your State: Please select your state Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington Washington DC West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming -- Privacy Policy · Terms of Service The response I received from Property Line's marketing was better than I have ever received for any marketing in the nine years I have been a commercial real estate broker. Burt Gay Marcus & Millichap Commercial Property Listing Resource Property Line is a listing reference resource that caters exclusively to a national database of commercial real estate professionals. List inventory and search for inventory in an unlimited capacity. Bulk upload inventory with unlimited attachments at no charge. Property Line also offers proven marketing tools that "push" inventory to a national database to help close deals and move inventory. About Property Line Property Line supports the commercial brokerage community by marketing properties, promoting commercial brokerage companies, and offering unparalleled marketing tools to the commercial broker. Property Line began in 1984 as a graphic design, print and distribution facility that specialized in networking for commercial real estate brokerage houses. Property Line's commitment to the brokerage community combines the power of emerging technologies to the time-tested practices of professional commercial real estate. The Property Line goal is to streamline the commercial agent's responsibilities, boost production and improve financial returns. Reliable information, dependable marketing vehicles, and organizational tools created specifically to meet the needs of today's competitive-and successful-commercial agent have been Property Line's hallmark since its inception. Property Line offers unparalleled customer service, free tools to assist brokers in listing and searching inventory, and the latest technology to "push" inventory to a national database of Commercial Real Estate Professionals. HOME · PRODUCTS · FAQ · SIGN UP · ADMIN LOGIN · CONTACT US © 2005 Property Line International, Inc. · PRIVACY POLICY · TERMS OF SERVICE

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MIT Center for Real Estate - Home Skip to content. home contact sitemap search: Prospective Students Prospective Students Overview Curriculum Faculty Admissions Prospective Students Overview Curriculum Faculty Admissions Prospective Students Overview FAQ MBA or MSRED? Student Life Meet our Students Request Info Curriculum Faculty Admissions Prospective Students Overview Curriculum MSRED Courses Electives Industry Participants Faculty Admissions Prospective Students Overview Curriculum Faculty Admissions Application Procedure Cost & Aid Visit MIT/CRE Careers Careers Career Services Recent Employers Alumni Career Profiles Research Research Research Initiatives Working Papers Thesis Research Faculty Research Projects Research Research Initiatives NCC HAI CREDL Working Papers Thesis Research Faculty Research Projects Industry Partners Industry Partners Becoming a Partner Partner List Alumni Alumni News & Projects Update Spaulding Award Continuing Education Continuing Education Course List Registration & Fees Events Events News News About Us About Us Staff Giving Giving MIT Center for Real Estate MIT established the Centerfor Real Estate in 1983 to improve thequality of the built environmentand to promote more informed professionalpractice in the real estate industry. It is thehome of the first one-year Master's degree programin real estate development and a respected summerinstitute of professional developmentcourses. Its partnership program provides opportunitiesfor students, practitioners andacademics to get together on both a formal andan informal basis. Learn more about our MSRED Program See which Industry Leaders are partners of MIT/CRE Introducing MIT/CRE’s Featured Partner This Fall we recognize Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, one of the Center’s newest partners. Caisse de dépôt was instrumental in making this year's Student Class Trip to Europe a reality, and will also be featured as Leaders in Real Estate on December 2, 2005. Learn more about Caisse de dépôt and CRE. MITCenterforReal Estate Phone: 617-253-4373 Fax: 617-258-6991 Email: mit-cre@mit.edu Mail: 77 Massachusetts Avenue, w31-310, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 Breaking News Forum in Issues in Real Estate - San Francisco, CA Highlights Alumni/ae Reunion Weekend 2005 , 9/29 - 10/1 Tune in to the ARW 2005 Webcast on 9/30 at 3:30pm EST -- 2005 MIT/CRE Fall Open House Videos of 2004 Open House available Real Estate Opportunity Fund Investment Performance Persistence (pdf 274k) - by David Geltner, Thea C. Hahn, and Nori Gerardo-Lietz

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Petfinder.com: Adopt a pet and help an animal shelter rescue a puppy or kitten. animal adoption Adopt a puppy dog form the animal adoption shelter. Setting aside all of the arguments for buying a puppy from a breeder , Sternberg emphatically pronounces that you should adopt a dog from a shelter because, as she says, its the right thing to do."Go ahead. Buy that puppy in the window. Yes, that beautiful, adorably winsome creature whose huge, soulful eyes cry, "Please, take me home. Our animal adoption services put great pets in loving homes. I'm full of love and affection and I know you are too." The only thing you should know before you make this purchase is that in doing so you will he contributing to the livelihood of an inhumane puppy mill breeder. You will actively be condoning the wretched existence of thousands of breeding stock dogs who lead lives of misery and desperation. Do you really want to a high price for your pet? Can you live with the fact that half million puppies die annual they even make it to a pet store? And are you ready to deal possibility that your new pet will soon manifest one or more of illnesses, viruses, congenital defects or temperament problems so rampant in puppy mill dogs? If you wish to adopt a dog , please visit our website to obtain more information on it.Petfinder's Post-a-pet is full of great pets that, for some reason, can't stay in their current homes. People also list pets here that they find as strays as an alternative to taking them to the shelter. These pets are usually currently living with a foster family or their original family. Purina signed on as the Web site's premier sponsor. Purina provides nutrition and pet care information for Petfinder.com's online libraries and a breed selector to help visitors decide what breeds are best for their family. Purina will also be assisting in marketing efforts, helping to spread the word about the thousands of pets that need a new home. Adopt a pet dog or cat from animal welfare organizations across the country. Buy different cat breeds that are for sale. If you have questions or would like to know how to buy a puppy , please visit our website. We love to hear your Petfinder happy endings! In fact, we all stay glued to our computers just waiting for them to arrive every day! Each month we will choose one lucky new Petfinder family to receive a free one-year subscription to The ASPCA's Animal Watch magazine.* Simply tell your pet's story as she/he went from homelessness to happiness click the submit button below. We would like to have your permission to share your story in our press releases so that more and more people will see that homeless pets deserve a second shot at being part of a family. If you agree to let us share your story, please include your name and phone number so that we can contact you. Thanks! You can find out more about our cat adoption program by visiting our website. We're waiting to hear from you! Petfinder is an on-line, searchable database of animals that need homes. It is also a directory of over 7,000 animal shelters and adoption organizations across the USA, Canada and Mexico. Organizations maintain their own home pages and available pet database. Our mission: to use Internet technology and the resources it can generate to 1) increase public awareness of the availability of high-quality adoptable pets and to 2) increase the overall effectiveness of pet adoption programs across North America to the extent that the euthanasia of adoptable pets is eliminated. Visit our site if you are interested to buy a dog .Petfinder.com is free to use. Animal shelters and rescue groups can register to join Petfinder.com online and can start entering pets the same day. "The site is a virtual shelter," says Jared Saul. "It is being able to sit down with your family and visit hundreds of shelters, get to know the pets, and not have to drive all around to do it. When someone finally does go to meet a pet because of Petfinder.com, they are more likely to be well suited for each other. What better use of the Web?" Rescue a free kitten for a pet. Please visit our site to find our about our kitten adoption services. From the comfort of their personal computers, pet lovers can search for a pet that best matches their needs. They can then reference a shelter's Web page and discover what services it offer. Petfinder also includes classified ads, discussion forums and a library of animal welfare articles. Petfinder is updated DAILY. Organizations wishing to participate should register. A contact person should be responsible for direct communications with Petfinder. Only nonprofit organizations will be included. We have a dog rescue program that you can find more information about it right from our website.Petfinder is made up of animal-care professionals and regular people volunteering for their local animal welfare organizations all working together to maintain active and accurate homeless pet lists. Most animal welfare volunteers have "real jobs" by day. The success and the magnitude of this project is largely due to their tireless efforts to make a difference. f you have a Website and would like to help us promote shelter pets as the #1 choice for a new pet, you may right click on the logos below and save them for use on your home page. You may also want to check out our Featured Pet Module which allows you to show Petfinder pets from your community on your own home page.Find out how to obtain a free puppy by visiting our website. In June of 2000, Petfinder.com was named one of the 300 best websites by Forbes magazine, and in October, Petfinder.com was named one of the top 100 sites by Family PC magazine. The site has also been featured on Oprah, in the Industry Standard, Mademoiselle and is frequently noted in major newspapers such as The New York Times. Adopt a dog or cat from the animal shelter. Stores for pets that are on sale.Can you live with the fact that half million puppies die annual they even make it to a pet store ? Shelters and rescue group members also have their own home pages on the site. Many of them attribute over 50% of their adoptions to Petfinder.com. Some have reported that their euthanasia rate dropped significantly within months of joining Petfinder.com. They also report that Petfinder.com adoptions are more successful, with fewer pets returned. This may be because the adopter's choice is more informed. "Many people find visiting shelters traumatic, especially those who feel guilty when they can't take all the pets home," says Betsy Saul of Tucson, Arizona, who developed the site with her husband, Jared, in 1995 as a New Year's Resolution to help homeless pets. "Petfinder.com allows you to focus your search from home, which makes finding your new best friend much easier." The site went national in August 1998. Petfinder.com, a labor of love for the Sauls, was the first searchable directory for homeless pets. attention is what its sponsors want, attention is what they'll get. Petfinder.com, whose founders are scientists by training, not business people, is among the busiest sites on the Internet. The Sauls attribute their site's success not only to hard work, but also to the press. "We never had to spend a dime on advertising," says Betsy Saul, who admits it was a good thing since, at the time, they didn't have any dimes to spare. "As soon as we launched and the press first got a glimpse of the site, we've been in a race to keep up with ourselves."Visit our website to find our about our puppy adoption services.The Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals ( SPCA ).The SPCA is now actively involved in helping shelters join Petfinder.com, as well as helping educate shelter personnel once they become members. QUICK PET SEARCH ANIMAL Please select BarnYard Bird Cat Dog Horse Pig Rabbit Reptile Small&Furry BREED [click for list] AGE All Baby Young Adult Senior SIZE All Small Medium Large Extra-Large GENDER All Male Female ZIP or CITY, STATE/PROV PIC PREVIEW? SEARCH RANGE Regional Expanded National SEARCH TIPS SITE MAP • PETS -advanced search -breed index • SHELTERS -local shelters -by state / prov • LIBRARY • MESSAGES • CLASSIFIEDS -postapet -pet wanted -lost & found • EVENT CALENDAR • HAPPY "TAILS" -monthly drawing • KIDS HELP INFO PRESS ADVERTISE Hurricane Pets Search reports of found, rescued, and sheltered pets in the Animal Emergency Response Network On Petfinder.com You Can: Search adoptable pets with our advanced search or our Quick Search (left). Locate shelters and rescue groups currently caring for adoptable pets. Browse our resource library and learn more about how to care for your pet. Post classified ads for lost or found pets, pets wanted, and pets needing homes. Sign up to be a volunteer to help your local shelter or rescue group. HURRICANE ALERTS CLICK HERE for the Animal Welfare Disaster and Emergency Response Resource Page >> Animal Hurricane Victims still need your help! Make a tax-deductible donation to the Petfinder.com Foundation Disaster Fund. The Petfinder.com Foundation is a 501(c)(3) public charity, EIN #87-0964641. A Christmas Carol Joanne and Jim Thompson of J and J’s Homeless Pet Rescue in Washington, NC, had just about given up hope of finding a home for Carol Anne, a friendly Labrador retriever they’d had since she was a baby. But glad tidings! On December 26, the one-year-old (now called Savannah) went home with her new family, Debbie and Ralph Whatley of Greenville, NC, who found her on Petfinder.com. For information about dog care, visit the Petfinder.com library . To enter your happy ‘tail’ in our drawing see below. Have a Happy Tail? Send us your Petfinder pet's happy ending story , and you'll be entered to win a six-month supply of FRONTLINE ® Plus or FRONTLINE Top Spot ®! Have a Web Site? Use our Petfinder.com search banner to allow your visitors to search our homeless pets right from your home page. Or feature pets from your local shelter by placing our Featured Pet Module (like the one above) on your own home page! Promote Adoption with Petfinder.com gear! Petfinder.com Best Friends Kids' T-Shirt * $12.95 Outfit your little "best friends" in a comfy tee showing their love for their pets of all types! Lime green or vibrant orange tees read "Petfinder.com" and "Best Friends Forever," so your kids can help spread the word wherever they go. Visit the Petfinder.com shop for caps, t-shirts, and car magnets and more! Happy Holidays! Petfinder.com wishes all of our visitors and their furry (and non-furry!) families a very happy and safe holiday season. FREE Petfinder.com Bumper Sticker! Send a self-addressed mailing LABEL (no envelope) and a $0.37 stamp to: Bumper sticker PO Box 51 Carterville MO 64835 WHILE THEY LAST! Your Ad Here -- © Petfinder, LLC 1999 Artwork © Judie Bomberger 1998 Petfinder's privacy statement

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Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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REALTOR.com: Real estate listings & homes for sale Welcome, Visitor! Sign Up to: Save Searches Save Listings Sign Up Now! Already a member? Sign In Homebuying Tools Find a Lender Find a Mover Market Conditions Neighborhood Tour Real Estate 101 Buyers Sellers For REALTORS® Resource Center News REALTOR.org Search the Web Select a Top Search: Bad Credit Contractors Homeowner's Insurance Debt Consolidation Interior Design Mortgage Rates Loan Types Rates Points 30-yr fixed 5.74% 0.37 15-yr fixed 5.38% 0.28 ARM 3/1, 30Yrs 4.87% 0.26 Updated: 12/29/2005 12:05:52 PM Check Local Rates Search our national directory of mortgage brokers and lenders. Find a Home Over 2.5 million listings for sale! State/Province AB AK AL AR AZ BC CA CO CT DC DE FL GA GU HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA MB MD ME MI MO MN MS MT NC ND NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK ON OR PA PR RI SC SD TN TX UT VI VT VA WA WI WV WY - OR - Minimum Price $0 $500 $1,000 $1,400 $2,000 $5,000 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $70,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $325,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000 $750,000 $800,000 $850,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 $1,750,000 $2,000,000 $2,250,000 $2,500,000 $2,750,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 to Maximum Price $1,000 $1,400 $2,000 $5,000 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $70,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $325,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000 $750,000 $800,000 $850,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 $1,750,000 $2,000,000 $2,250,000 $2,500,000 $2,750,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 no maximum Beds 1+ Beds 2+ Beds 3+ Beds 4+ Beds 5+ Beds Baths 1+ Baths 1.5+ Baths 2+ Baths 2.5+ Baths 3+ Baths 3.5+ Baths 4+ Baths More Search Options Map Search Hurricane Relief Find or offer immediately available temporary housing to assist Hurricane victims: HurricaneHousing.net Relief.WelcomeWagon.com -- Find a REALTOR State/Province Alabama Alaska Alberta Arizona Arkansas British Columbia California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District Of Columbia Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Manitoba Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Ontario Oregon Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virgin Islands Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming From the National Association of REALTORS ® Join REALTORS® in supporting hurricane victims Why Use a REALTOR® With a GRI? Make the most of every moment with FamilyTime, an interactive DVD celebrating the family. Visit REALTOR® Magazine Online Read current NAR Press Releases For REALTORS ® REALTORS Relief Effort exceeds $5.2 million for Hurricane victims, donate now... Enter the Business Success Zone at REALTOR.org! Find out how REALTOR.com can help you secure more listings, sell homes for more and promote yourself and your brand NEW name for NAR member benefits offeringsthe REALTOR Benefits(sm) Program. Learn about the practical, everyday solutions for your professional and personal life! Reach new levels of success with NAR partner, The Pacific Institute! About the National Association of REALTORS ® Representing Home Owners State & Local Associations Real Estate Specialty Organizations Find an Appraiser Find a Commercial Property International Real Estate Search in popular metros: Atlanta | Austin | Boston | Chicago | Dallas | Denver | Houston | Las Vegas | Long Island | Los Angeles | Memphis | Miami | New York City | Orange County | Palm Beach | Phoenix | Sacramento | San Diego | Seattle Site Map | Corporate News & Info | Contact Us | Advertise With Us | Join our staff Terms of Use and PrivacyPolicy . 1995- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS and Homestore, Inc. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity REALTOR.com is the official site of the National Association of REALTORS and is operated by Homestore, Inc. REALTOR -- A Registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Inquiries regarding the Code of Ethics should be directed to the board in which a REALTOR holds membership.