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Real Estate Investment Ideas? New Search Advanced Search Hot Property The real story on real estate BLOGS Blogspotting Brand New Day Byte of the Apple Deal Flow Economics Unbound Fine On Media Hot Property NussbaumOnDesign Tech Beat BLOG RSS FEEDS About RSS Blogspotting Brand New Day Byte of the Apple Deal Flow Economics Unbound Fine On Media Hot Property Nussbaum On Design Tech Beat PREMIUM CONTENT MBA Insider ONLINE FEATURES Book Reviews BW Video Columnists Interactive Gallery Newsletters Past Covers Philanthropy Podcasts Special Reports TECHNOLOGY Product Reviews Startups Special Reports Tech Stats Wildstrom: Tech Maven SMALLBIZ Smart Answers Success Stories Today's Tip Trailblazing Companies INVESTING Annual Reports BW 50 S&P Picks & Pans Stock Screeners Free S&P Stock Report SCOREBOARDS Mutual Funds Info Tech 100 S&P 500/BW 50 B-SCHOOLS MBA Profiles MBA Rankings Who's Hiring Grads BW EXTRAS BW Digital BW Online Alerts Handheld Edition RSS Feeds Reprints/Permissions Conferences Investor Workshops BUSINESS DIRECTORY -- Find local experts in: « Cooling in California | Main | Land Sales Could Slow » October 28, 2005 Real Estate Investment Ideas? Peter Coy Every December, BusinessWeek publishes an investment guide for the year ahead. This year I'm doing the real estate story. Here's the question my editors want me to answer: Are there still any real estate bargains out there? What do you think? Any U.S. cities where house prices still have room to rise? ( Youngstown ?) Any countries where real estate is still relatively cheap? ( Germany ?) Condos feel kind of pricey lately, but are there still deals to be had? What about REITs? If you like REITs, which kinds? Name names, please. Remember, it's not enough to say that an investment costs less. You have to make the case that it's likely to go up in price and/or throw off a lot of cash in the next year. Be prepared to defend your choices because at least someone reading this blog is bound to disagree with whatever you say. I'm thinking of giving a prize to the Hot Property reader who comes up with the idea that works out the best over the next year. Let's say, either 100 acres of midtown Manhattan real estate or a paper crown labeled Real Estate Emperor. My choice. So ... send in those ideas and start arguing with each other. 04:56 PM Investing in Real Estate Trackback Pings TrackBack URL for this entry: http://blogs.businessweek.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/ Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Real Estate Investment Ideas? : » Business Week posts "Hot Property" Real Estate Contest from Pacesetter Mortgage Blog Peter Coy, over at the Business Week Hot Property Blog, is posting a Real Estate Investment contest of sorts. His question is this, Are there still any real estate bargains out there? I will put my hat in the ring [Read More] Tracked on October 29, 2005 12:06 PM » The US Real Estate Market from Adam Dudley This article at Business Week Online caused me to post my thoughts about the US real estate investing market. With rising interest rates and a multitude of home owners using deadly interest only loans and ARM's in the US, there [Read More] Tracked on October 31, 2005 09:25 AM Comments how about being a contrarian, and invest in the tanking market. For example, buy puts or short homebuilders and the credit agencies that have the largest exposure. Posted by: bradley jellerichs at October 28, 2005 06:37 PM I'll start the brawling by saying that I'm pretty darn bullish on the Seattle market. My reasoning? It's the economy... With Boeing and Microsoft doing a wonderful job of holding down the fort, and a thriving start-up vibe (in real estate alone, there is Zillow, Redfin, and HouseValues), it seems like enough of the area residents will be flush with cash for the near future to keep prices rising. And while Seattle has definitely seen some growth in the recent past, things have never gotten out of control like they have in the Bay Area. Because I really want to win the 100 acres in Manhattan (or at least an Emperor crown!), I'll get a little more specific. I'd invest in a starter home (~$350K) in the Ballard neighborhood. Of course I'm only speculating, but I think that a home like this still has plenty of room to grow in the near future (i.e. one year). Posted by: Dustin at October 31, 2005 01:30 AM OK, so far I have Maricopa County, Ariz., and Seattle. I have "short the homebuilders." I also got a very intelligent email from someone suggesting a narrow segment of REITs--ones with low debt/equity ratios that get most of their income from leasing buildings to companies in healthy industry sectors. What else? Posted by: Peter Coy at October 31, 2005 05:23 PM First, I have put aside some cash ($50k) in my money market account. I also have on my current house a 15-Year fixed mortgage (50% loan-to-value) with really affordable monthly mortgage payment. Finally, I have no plan to move out for at least 5 years. Second, I opened an (still untapped) equity line of credit on my current home (200k, about half of the equity in my house). And now, guess who will be a major player in the foreclosure market in my county after the housing boom goes bust. Assuming a worst case scenario of a 25% decline in valuation in the years following the bust, my remaining equity stake will vanish but I compensated for that by buying $20,000 worth of premium on OTM put options (CTX Jan08 45 Put for example) on the 2 big home builders in my county. Posted by: the contrarian at October 31, 2005 11:04 PM The conventional wisdom is that "as interest rates rise, real estate values must decline, and so to must REITs." The problem with this CW is that it is too simple, and it doesn't take into account the wide variation in the various types of REITs out there. If rising interest rates and the risk of a "real estate bubble" is a concern, then it is possible to screen for REITs that minimize that risk. For example, if we look at REITs that have low debt/equity ratios and derive their income mostly from leasing properties to other businesses, those REITs will be less sensitive to land valuation and interest rates. These success of these REITs are more dependent on the segment they lease to, such as healthcare, retail, etc. I ran a screen looking for REITs with debt/equity ratio less than 0.5 and whose income is tied to leases. Some promising candidates include Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT). Leases out 43 medical buildings in the Southwest (where there are plenty of retirees and demand for medical services), has a debt/equity ratio of 0.23. Dividend yield is 6.5% and UHT has steadily increased their dividend over the years. A similar healthcare REIT is LTC Properties Inc. (LTC), with 200 senior long-term care facilities, a debt/equity ratio of 0.23 and a divident yield of 6.6%. Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT). Owns and leases hotel and motels to various national chains such as Courtyard by Marriott and Candlewood Suites. Debt to equity is 0.49. Has more debt than I'd like but income from operations has been increasing. Good dividend payer at 7.4%. Correctional Properties Trust (CPV). Leases out 12 prison facilites and has no debt, with a dividend yield of 6.5%. The leases are long-term and include rent increases tied to the CPI. Given the latest White House shenanigans this may be a real growth industry. Interestingly, there were no residential REITs that met my low debt criteria. Many of them have debt/equity ratios greater than one. I believe those REITs are to be avoided. Posted by: Jim in Calif at October 31, 2005 11:06 PM Ernest and Young's Steven Friedman told real estate editors at the National Assn. of Realtors annual convention that the best places to buy a condo in today's market are: Jacksonville, FL Austin, TX Boise, ID Friedman said his choices are based on job growth, affordability, and quality of life. Posted by: Frances Flynn Thorsen at November 1, 2005 06:14 AM Is land still a good buy anywhere? Great comment by Boe Clark about land over on the "Land Sales Could Slow" thread (justly accusing me of being vague). Here's what he wrote: The blogger speaks of land (improved and unimproved I assume), as if it were a homogeneous commodity. Prices are going down...in which markets? In Florida, Arizona, and Texas? Or in California and Colorado? In urban, sub urban, ag, commerically zoned, or residentially zoned land? 10 miles, or twenty miles, from population centers? In urban infill areas? With or without utilities/services? Generalities get us nowhere...specifics you can use to make prudent investment decisions with. Posted by: Peter Coy at November 1, 2005 10:36 AM Here's an Idea: Wait on the housing market and slowly move towards equities. There's some bet up stocks that could bought for a song. Posted by: Joe at November 3, 2005 01:27 PM It probably doesn’t bode well for the real estate market that there are not a lot of investment ideas! Posted by: Dustin at November 3, 2005 04:15 PM What about fixing up and renting or selling dilapidated properties in out-of-favor markets? Somebody in that business emailed me with that suggestion. Seems like it could be a good deal for people who don't mind supplementing their cash with elbow grease. Posted by: Peter Coy at November 3, 2005 06:00 PM Forget the US. Japan's real estate market is rip-roaring. Posted by: Taro Akasaka at November 3, 2005 11:15 PM 1. REITs holding a lot of mid level apartment buildings (where the former homeowners in CA will be moving once the number of foreclosures exceeds 100,000 in the state). 2. REITs specializing in self storage facilities. These units rent for the same price per square foot as apartments, but cost a fraction of the cost to build and maintain and are enormously profitable. Again, demand will soar as the number of foreclosures in CA exceeds 100,000. The number of foreclosures in CA WILL exceed 100,000 now that rates are rising and the I/O speculators and such will be driven out of the market as will so many first time buyers who have been sold these disastrous loans (half of buyers in San Diego and 2/3 of buyers statewide for the past 18 months). Posted by: Dave at November 8, 2005 06:58 PM Are we talking about investments (say 5-7% compounding growth over 20 years) or speculation (dreams of 100% inflation over 1 year)? I like the idea of getting a positive cash flow with 20% down and then watching 5-7% appreciation over 20 years. Summit County, Colorado, is 90 miles west of Denver and another mile higher. From 2001 to 2005, prices were flat, since demand equaled supply. Since January of 2005, demand has increased and prices are starting to climb sharply. Summit County has a great location, great weather, and spectacular scenery, yet is much less expensive than Aspen and Vail. To me it looks like a great bet. Posted by: DaveB at November 12, 2005 04:32 PM Bulgaria is the hottest real estate market in Europe. http://www.thepropertyinvestorsclub.co.uk/pic-bulgarian-property-investment.htm http://www.thepropertyinvestorsclub.co.uk/property-investment-tracker.htm http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/06/global_real_est.html http://bbtbulgaria.blogspot.com Posted by: Dimitar Vesselinov at November 19, 2005 09:21 PM How about India; bungalos on the beach near major cities. Bocas in Panama? Or, Tibet, near Changdu. Those are my bets. Douglas Posted by: Douglas at December 12, 2005 02:55 AM Post a comment Name: Email Address: URL: Comments: Recent Posts New and Improved In 2006, a Harsher Reality for Realty A Gloomy Christmas for Real Estate? The Reflex Effect Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up Recent Comments Cooling in California (6) Housing Numbers Continue to Surprise (9) Neg Am Mortgages (6) Taxpayer-backed mortgages for undocumented immigrants? (5) No mass exodus from the Golden State (12) Short Countrywide? (1) A Gloomy Christmas for Real Estate? (1) Washington DC bubble? (214) Riskiest housing markets (6) Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up (2) Recent Trackbacks Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up (1) More New Homes for Sale (1) A Fun Website for Checking Affordability (1) Impact of higher mortgage rates? (2) Making Sense of Average Mortgage Rates (1) A Less Curvaceous Yield Curve (2) The Westchester Tease (1) More Option ARMs and Alt-A Loans (1) Real Estate Investment Ideas? (2) Boston housing...on the rise???? (1) Categories Affordability Amey's adventures in real estate Bubbles Cali is Doomed Demographics Economy Estate Planning Foreclosures Home builders Housing Prices Investing in Real Estate Mortgage Rates Mortgages Real Estate Culture Refinancing Regions Remodeling Selling Archives December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 Subscribe RSS Feed  

Texas Land

Bush and the Texas Land Grab Bush and the Texas Land Grab July 16, 2002 By Nicholas D. Kristof Editorial Op-Ed To submit a Letter to the Editor: letters@nytimes.com Democrats and media hounds are baying under the wrong tree. The point in President Bush's business career where he took outrageous shortcuts was not at Harken Energy, but rather when he was grabbing land for a new baseball stadium in Arlington for his Texas Rangers baseball team. Mr. Bush broke no laws. Neither do the overwhelming majority of corporate executives. The cloud over the business world comes not so much from lawbreaking as from avaricious bruising of the public interest. The challenge is not catching criminals but injecting public scrutiny into a culture of cronyism in which executives, accountants, regulators and "independent" board members all ooze empathy for each other. When Asia had its economic crisis in 1997-98, Americans properly trashed its "crony capitalism." But we suffer from the same affliction ourselves, and President Bush will not address the issue seriously because cronyism has been his way of life -- the Bushes call it loyalty. I have a stack of court documents from Arlington that portray the "sordid and shocking tale" of the Rangers stadium, as one lawsuit puts it. Essentially, Mr. Bush and the owners' group he led bullied and misled the city into raising taxes to build a $200 million stadium that in effect would be handed over to the Rangers. As part of the deal, the city would even confiscate land from private owners so that the Rangers owners could engage in real estate speculation. "It was a $200 million transfer to Bush and Rangers owners," complains Jim Runzheimer, an anti-tax campaigner in Arlington. William Eastland, a leading Republican in Arlington, is also outraged, and puts it this way: "You're using public money for a private purpose." Mr. Eastland was a Bush delegate to the Republican National Convention in 2000 but still believes that the Bush group behaved shadily and against the public interest. Local voters overwhelmingly approved the deal, so maybe we shouldn't get so exercised by star-struck local officials giving $200 million to rich baseball owners. But the most unseemly part of the deal was that Mr. Bush and the Rangers' owners conspired with city officials to seize private property that would be handed over to the Bush group. "A group of wealthy and influential people threatened and traded their way into an unprecedented takeover of government power and private property in an awesome display of greed and avarice," charges a lawsuit by the landowners, in what strikes me as a fair recitation of events. Another suit charges that the deal "can only be described as astounding, unprecedented and blatantly illegal." A copy of the secret agreement among Mr. Bush and the other Rangers owners shows that they intended to make money not just by running a baseball club but also by land speculation. For example, one owner found a nice chunk of land and sent a memo suggesting that it "sounds like another condemnation candidate if you want to work the site into your master plan," according to the court documents. Another of the owners' internal memos casts a proprietary gaze on a property and declares: "We plan to condemn this land." For a group of financiers to go around town admiring properties and deciding which to seize through the government power of condemnation so that they can acquire free land and speculate on it is appalling. Even Kazakhstan would blush at such practices. Horace Kelton, for example, owned land that the Rangers wanted. The owners got Arlington to seize it, with the city paying less than $1.50 per square foot even though it had previously paid $10 a square foot for other land nearby. "It was an extremely low price, and that's why we had a court case that lasted seven years," Mr. Kelton recalled. Eventually, his family got $11 a square foot. In fairness, Mr. Bush was simply being a hard-nosed businessman. He did a great job leading the owners' group, and it's hard to take seriously the caricature of him as unintelligent when he led the Rangers so lucratively. Indeed, his $14 million profit on the Rangers financed his entry into politics. But it's also a sordid tale of cronyism, of misuse of power, of cozy backroom money-grubbing -- a more pressing threat to American business than outright criminality. LINK to source

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Unbiased property investment tips and advice to maximise profits from property! Maximise profits from property investment - free independent advice! "Hi Alan, am keen to know more on property investment and I have just subscribed to your Newsletter, and want to congratulate you on your informative site together with the contents." Barbara Burton "Hi Alan, You seem to have your head screwed on, and yes I'm in my fourth hour on your EXCELLENT site." Richard Harries, Pembrokeshire Enter your E-mail Address Enter your First Name (optional) Then Don't worry -- your e-mail address is totally secure. I promise to use it only to send you Property Investment Tips. Hi, Property investment is as good an investment as there is, so it still amazes me how little people know about the potential to make money from property, and property investment. There are people sitting on huge amounts of equity who, if they invest this money wisely could be retiring within 2 years!!!! Dont believe me? Thats exactly what I just did, aged 28!! After remortgaging my property, I reinvested that money and last year I made more than 100k after tax, and will make more than that this year. Now I had a good job beforehand, with a gross salary of over 50k, but when you compare that net amount of around 35k with the money I made from property - simply by releasing equity and spending my spare time understanding the vast possibilities in property and investing in some excellent opportunities, I cant believe more people do not do it. I am now in a position where I do not need a 9-5 job anymore . This gives me plenty of time to spend with my family, on the golf course, on holiday, at the football etc etc and I have no boss to report to!!! I believe there are possibilities for anyone out there, whether you are a first time buyer, and not sure where to buy, someone looking for a hands free property investment with guaranteed returns, someone looking to top up their pension, or someone who is willing to give 10 hours a week or so and be in a position to sack the boss in 3-4 years time!! However for anyone to succeed at property investment, they must have some good knowledge - a clear strategy, understand property tax, mortgages for investment properties and importantly understanding what a good property investment deal is and the power of leverage. Now when I first started researching on the internet, I came across some excellent resources and invaluable information - however there are also some who are more interested in charging you a fee than getting you a good deal. That is why I decided to share some of my experiences, and give some of my recommendations and property investment tips. Any of these recommendations I will have personally used, and will have confidence in their knowledge and integrity. I will not accept adverts or endorse any company I am not convinced about. I have now set up a second site - as from March 2005 - with all recommended property investment deals, as and when they arise - this gives me the opportunity to put more details down. Please, if are interested in updates on deals, also sign up on www.property-investment-deals.com for latest deals. I have a newsletter I send out every 2-3 weeks, where I discuss various strategies and property investment tips, and discuss exactly what I have done so far on this Tips site. I will also try to answer any questions, or at least point you in the right direction. I will also analyse deals/courses/mortgage options put forward by some of my contacts. Enter your E-mail Address Enter your First Name (optional) Then Don't worry -- your e-mail address is totally secure. I promise to use it only to send you Property Investment Tips. I will continually update any good sources I find, and I will continue to share my experiences with you. By no means is this list exhaustive and I am sure there are plenty more good sources, although I also know some not so good - email me with any good experiences/sources you have used for any property investment, and I will share this with the subscribers. Have a look down the left hand side, where I have covered what I consider the key factors when investing in property, and look at each of them, investment property mortgage options, property tax, property investment strategies/courses, and property investment deals at home and abroad, to see who I recommend and why. All this advice is free and is solely based on my experience and the contacts I have made - I will not be offended if you do your own thing, but I am completely independent, so I would at least take note of all my efforts over the last few years!! Of course, you should always do your own research, and do please note the disclaimer page. Any questions I will attempt to reply, please email me at alan@property-investment-tips.com. Also make sure you sign up for free newsletter before you forget, this is packed full of good tips and advice, so I've been told! "Alan, I have just read your back issues, and enjoy the way that you write! I am currently an ex-pat living in Ohio, but with an existing and pending property in the UK....look forward to your next issue " Amanda, Ohio "I've signed up for your newsletter today and from what I've seen of your website, it looks very informative, good balanced outlook on what people should do when investing in property." Nihar Dutt, www.propertynetworking.co.uk "I am impressed with the newsletters, very professional Alan. Your comments on Cyprus and Bulgaria are fab, especially for new investors - DD is vital - and even then I still think its risky so recommending agents shall be of great assistance". Alex Angel, Edinburgh "Hi Alan,First of all, thank you ever so much for sharing your experience. Your website is absolutely fantastic!" Patrice Lavallee, Suffolk "ALAN, I read your newsletters with interest and have recently been in discussions with Property Network Spain. Hopefully the outcome will be profitable!" ALEX CARAVELLO, Residential Lettings & Management "Alan, Great newsletter as per usual. My name is Tom Dyer and i got the info about your newsletter from a good friend of mine, who himself had it referred to him via another friend.It just goes to show that good information travels very fast.Great to have the opportunity to get access to the newsletters and some of your philosophy. Keep em' comingAll the very best" Tom Dyer "Hi Alanthanks again for the posts you send, they are a great eye opener - i'm learning a hell of a lot." Shuko mwambazi Alan just wanted to drop you a line, to say thanks!! For the past few months I had been looking to invest some money and saw property as a possible opportunity. However, having never previously bought, due to continued job relocation, my knowledge of this market was somewhat limited. The information and advice provided on property-investment-tips.com has proved invaluable in taking me from a position of knowing nothing - about how mortgages work, where to buy and which investment companies I could trust - through to the purchase of my first property!! I have bought in Cyprus through investincyprus.com, and am delighted with it! Maybe meet you out there in 18 months??!! Thanks again, and have subscribed to your newsletter to keep eye on other opportunites. Have also given details to my work colleague who is also keen to buy. James Thomson, Edinburgh Hi, I found out about your site and was pretty impressed with everything! I am very interested in purchasing ANY property with good growth and rental prospects in the UK. I am living and working in Shanghai..... Look forward to hearing from you. Yours sincerely Robert Gavin Hi Alan, I found your website very informative and helpful. Thank you very much. My husband is British and I am Vietnamese. We have been working abroad as expats. We have some savings and would like to invest in land and property anywhere, in the UK or Vietnam or abroad. We would appreciate very much if you could give us some advice on what and how to do as we feel uncertain. We feel that we have the potential and could do something good with our savings but did not know where and how to start then we found your site. Thank you very much and I look forward to hearing from you, Best regards, Linh Dear Alan, Thank you for the latest edition of your newsletter and links to the superb articles on your excellent website - it is certainly coming along nicely! I am a first-time property investor and recently had the pleasure of meeting you at the Property show at the ExCel centre in Docklands, accompanied by my wife Christine..... above all, if he comes with your recommendation then I'm sure he is someone that can be relied upon. Ironically, I had been meaning to drop you a line for a while to further enquire about your exploits in property renovation, which I have so keenly read in your emails lately. But now your site has blossomed with so much information, I have learnt an awful lot by just scrolling through the wealth of advice available. Looking forward to hearing from you. ..........Many thanks for your prompt reply. It would be great to meet up with you again in the future, Alan - if anything to buy you a pint for your troubles! Thanks again for your support Kind regards, John Marsden Hi AlanI'll attempt to be brief and to the point! I like your website without having met you or had any communication with you - you do seem to come accross someone who is approachable and kind of normal!! Hence I write to you. I am interested in a one to one consultaion session with you and would like to make a reservation for a London meeting sometime after May. Is that possible? I am currently in Sudan undertaking 5 months voluntary work (back in May) and since being here I have had much time to reflect, to consider my next 'project', look at where I'm heading and to set some more goals and achievements for myself. I also have time while I am out here to do some homework and research (which is how I found you!).I have signed up to your e-zine, and have not yet read everything you have to offer on your site, however I wanted to book in with you as soon as possible, Mandy Evill So, have a look at the headings for the specific area you want to find out more on, and start to share some of the potential to be made in the world of property investment!!! Regards Alan Forsyth Why Property? Why property as an investment? Property Investment Strategies to maximise profits Property Investment Strategies - I'll give you some tips and advise on the best places to learn what is best for you! Location, location,l... Location - why it is still as important as ever, do not limit yourself! Buy to Let What to look out for when considering buy to let in UK and abroad Buy to Re-sell or Remortgage Buy to Re-sell, or Property renovation is as popular as ever, you only need to switch on the TV to see! I give my tips when starting out. UK property investment has become very popular over last few years My thoughts/tips on UK property investment Overseas Property Investment Overseas property investment is becoming more and more popular - check out my tips! Spanish property investment Spanish Property Investment is as popular as ever, read my recommendations on best companies to invest with in Spain Cyprus Property Investment Cyprus Property Investment is getting very popular - read my tips on the best company/places for property investment in Cyprus Bulgaria Property Investment Bulgaria property investment - why it is such good value Scotland Property Investment Scotland Property Investment Estonia property Estonia property Property Tax advice Importance of understanding types of property tax when investing in property. Best sources of information Mortgage advice for Investment Property Mortgage Advice for Investment Property, my tips and advice overseas mortgages Recommended overseas mortgages for property investors 1 to 1 Consultancy 1 to 1 Consultancy Recommended Property Investment Courses Property Investment Courses Landlords Insurance Landlords Insurance - my recommendations Rental Property Investment Software Recommended Rental Property Investment Software Articles Articles written and published by Alan Forsyth Rich Dad, Poor Dad Rich dad poor dad Books Best value books for property investment, financial freedom Resources Quick summary of best property resources on the internet when looking to invest in property. Contact Me Contact me for any further advice on products advertised here, or any further property questions Exchange URLs Exchange URLs Disclaimer Disclaimer other resources general other resources general About us About us

Real Estate Prices

Why the world's best real estate investor is cashing out. - Oct. 24, 2005 Web CNN/Money Home News Markets Technology Commentary Personal Finance Autos Real Estate News Newsmakers SAVE | EMAIL | PRINT | SUBSCRIBE TO MONEY | The king of real estate's cashing out Tom Barrack is selling most of his U.S. portfolio. Maybe you should be nervous too. October 24, 2005: 7:56 AM EDT By Shawn Tully , Fortune Senior Writer NEW YORK (Fortune) - Tom Barrack, arguably the world's greatest real estate investor, is methodically selling off his U.S. real estate holdings as prices drive the market to nosebleed levels. He likens the current real estate market to a game of polo. "I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros," says the bronzed 58-year old. "But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don't know when to hold back." It's the same with U.S. real estate right now. "There's too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains." The amateurs are going to get trampled, he explains, taking seasoned horsemen, who should get off the turf, down with them. Says Barrack: "That's why I'm getting out." Investors take heed. Barrack may be an amateur at polo, but when it comes to judging markets, he's the ultimate pro. Arguably the best real estate investor on the planet, he runs a $25 billion portfolio of trophy assets, from the Raffles hotel chain in Asia to the Aga Khan's former resort in Sardinia to Resorts International, the largest private gaming company in the U.S. Barrack's Colony Capital, one of the largest private equity firms devoted solely to real estate, has racked up returns of 21 percent annually since 1990, handing investors, chiefly pension funds and college endowments, 17 percent after all fees. Barrack bought the Fukuoka Dome, Japan's Yankee Stadium, in part because he calculated that the titanium in the retractable roof was worth as much as the purchase price. His strategy is to buy classy but neglected properties anywhere in the world where prices are low. Then, he'll pour in capital to fix them up, and resell in them in five years of so with their pedigrees fully restored. Says his friend Donald Trump: "Tom has an amazing vision of the future, an ability to see what's going to happen that no one else can match." Right now, Barrack's view of the U.S. market couldn't be clearer: It's a great time to sell, and a terrible time to buy. In fact, he sees signs of the tech bubble mentality in real estate. Too much capital is chasing real estate, he explains, with hedge funds, private equity groups, and rich investors all bidding on the same properties. "They've driven prices to the point where the yields on high-quality properties are like the returns on bonds, around 5 percent or 6 percent," says Barrack. "That's too low." And he sees the bubble deflating soon. Barrack thinks the catalyst will be a trend few others are talking about, a steep rise in the price of building materials and labor. "Construction costs have spiked 20 percent in the past nine months," he says. The reasons: Shortages of labor and materials like lumber because of the building boom, and increases in the price of oil, needed to produce everything from plastic piping to insulation to shingles. The slump will show up first in speculative hot spots like Miami and Las Vegas, he says, where condo developers are preselling their projects for what looks like big profits. When they actually build the units over the next year or two, he predicts, they will end up spending more then the units are now selling for. At that point, says Barrack, the developers will try to raise prices. "But most of these buyers are speculators," he says. "They will either sue the developers to get the original price or take their deposits back and walk away." The developers will then put the units back on the market, and the glut of vacant condos will drive prices down. "It's the busted deals caused by construction costs that will cause the turn in the market," he says. So Barrack is buying just one type of property in the U.S.: Casinos. And in contrast to most gaming titans, he's doing it on the cheap. Extraordinary homes, on the cheap ... click here Colony paid just $280 million for the 3000 room Las Vegas Hilton in 2003, one-tenth of what Steve Wynn paid to build his new casino, which has roughly the same number of rooms. The reason Barrack likes casinos is that he's licensed to operate casinos in all the major markets, while most other private equity firms and other financial players don't have licenses. Hence, they're locked out of the market, and can't bid against Barrack. For Barrack, casinos are a safe, exclusive preserve, far from the frenzied melee that's makes every other part of U.S. real estate such a dangerous place to play. For now, Barrack is getting off the field. But when the din subsides, and the amateurs depart, look for Barrack to ride back in, mallet cocked, ready to play again. ---------------------- To read the full-length article from Fortune, click here . The Hot List Most profitable renovations How risky is your 401(k)? Big new tax credits for hybrid cars More Newsmakers Google, Oprah looking hot in '06 Ex-Enron exec pleads guilty NYC transit deal gets OK contact us | magazine customer service | site map | glossary | RSS | press room OTHER NEWS: CNN | SI | Fortune | Business2.0 = Money subscribers = Premium content -- * - Time reflects local markets trading time. † - Intraday data is at least 15-minutes delayed. Disclaimer © 2005 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. 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National Association of Home Builders Advanced Search This site is designed for those interested in home building and the industry - it contains vast resources for both members and consumers alike. Learn more about home building - do a search, buy a publication, or simply browse the site. Members, log in now ! 12/29/2005 New Lead Paint Rule Not A Fix, NAHB Says 12/21/2005 Nation's Strong Housing Market Seen 'Simmering Down' In 2006 12/20/2005 Revised - New Call-In Number For News Teleconference: Main Street vs Wall Street 12/20/2005 Housing Market Strengthens in November MORE NEWS The Annual Meeting of Members of the National Association of Home Builders will take place on Thurs., Jan. 12, 2006 in the Valencia A-C Rooms, Level 4 at the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando, Florida, for the purpose of electing Directors and State Representatives, and other matters as may come before the meeting.  Visit the Convention section to register , review meeting materials , and read the resolutions which have been submitted .  www.nahb.org provides extensive housing industry information for both the public and members. From our general home building and remodeling information in For Consumers to our detailed economic and housing data , there's something for everyone. Members, log in now to gain access to the resources that are available exclusively for you. MORE FEATURES Just Released! Purchase your copy of the newly updated and revised 2nd edition of Estimating Home Construction Costs . Custom builder Jerry Householder shows you how to bring your houses in under budget and make your construction process more efficient. Available at BuilderBooks.com. Order today ! Class of 2006 IRM Commencement Breakfast Orlando, FL | Jan. 11 International Builders' Show Orlando, FL | Jan. 11-14 Green Building Conference Albuquerque, NM | March 13-14 Multifamily Pillars of the Industry Conference & Awards Scottsdale, AZ | April 2-5, 2006 MORE © 2005 Home Contact Us Site Map Privacy Statement Terms of Use Link to Us Search