real estate prices in


Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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Real Estate Licensing Bill

Welcome To North Carolina Real Estate Commission News Update Effective April 1, 2006 Gov. Easley Signs Historic Real Estate Licensing Bill On September 14, Governor Easley signed legislation making the most significant changes ever in the Real Estate License Law. Soon, salesperson licenses will be converted to (provisional) broker licenses, license applicants will be required to complete more real estate education, and persons wishing to become brokers-in-charge of real estate offices must have additional training and real estate experience. At its September meeting, the Real Estate Commission recognized the following persons and organizations who were instrumental in the passage of the legislation: • Representative Julia Howard who, with Representatives William Culpepper and Harold Brubaker, sponsored the legislation and who advocated for it on the House Floor and in committee; • Senate Majority Leader Tony Rand who sponsored a companion bill and spoke for the legislation on the Senate Floor; • North Carolina Association of REALTORS® which used its considerable resources to promote the legislation; and the Commission’s 2004 Broker-in-Charge Advisory Committee which conceived and recommended the legislation to the Commission. Commission Chairman Rick Watts concluded the proceedings by remarking that, as a result of this important legislation, “Real estate consumers will soon be served by more knowledgeable agents, and North Carolina’s real estate licensing program will be restructured to meet the needs and demands of the 21st century marketplace.” For more information about the changes in the North Carolina Real Estate License Law, please click on the following links: Summary of Changes to Real Estate License Law and Frequently Asked Questions Proposed Commission rules effective April 1, 2006 New Publications Two new publications from the Real Estate Commission are now available. Real estate licensees and interested persons may now purchase the Broker-in-Charge Guide a reference publication covering the administrative and supervisory responsibilities of brokers-in-charge of real estate offices. The 104-page volume, which serves as the text for the Broker-in-Charge course, is newly re-designed, will be updated as needed and may be purchased at a price of $10 either here on the Commission’s website or with publications order forms. Also now available is the latest addition to the Commission’s popular series of “questions and answers” brochures - Questions and Answers on: Real Estate Closings . Designed to answer many of the questions frequently asked by purchasers about residential real estate closings, the pocket-sized publication covers such topics as loan commitment letters, property inspections, title insurance, deeds, homeowner associations, and closing statements. Memo to Brokers-in-Charge The Commission has published a memorandum to all Brokers-in-Charge describing the advantages of an all broker office. To view the memo in its pdf form, click here . Trust Account Compliant Software Vendors List Now Available A list of vendors of software that the Commission has found to be "substantially" compliant with Commission rules and the Trust Account Guidelines can be found by clicking here .



Real Estate Prices San

San Diego real estate, MLS real estate listings, San Diego County real estate San Diego real estate San Diego county real estate - San Diego homes San Diego real estate Search the San Diego MLS San Diego real estate source San Diego real estate . . .Buying, selling, relocating . .to INSURE the BEST POSSIBLE DEAL Use the expertise of Bob Schwartz, Certified Residential Specialist Cell/Pager: 619-300-8819 Home office: 619-286-5604 *This site is continually (usually twice weekly) updated. Just Listed! San Carlos - Cosmetic Fixer! SAVE TENS OF THOUSANDS 4Br./2.5Ba.+Fam. Rm 1,800+Sq.Ft. . Click Here for more info on this San Carlos home Westerly Sunset Views Value Ranged just $499,000 to $529,000 San Diego local real estate facts . Sellers - Expose your property to over 96 Times more traffic than most real estate sites! 17,341 Unique visitors in March '05 San Diego county real estate - San Diego homes San Diego real estate Search the San Diego MLS San Diego real estate news that affects you ! San Diego Neighborhood real estate activity Certified Residential Specialist --- The'inside' secret to your BEST real estate deal! San Diego Home appreciation San Diego CA real estate value growth San Diego California Population Growth San Diego Communities Real estate San Diego - Hi-Tech marketing California Real Estate Prices San Diego (92120) Average Residential Detached sales price Nov. 2005 -- $ 632,434 (Source:S.D.A.R.) Calif. median home price - Oct. 05: $538,770 (Source: C.A.R.) Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region Oct. 05: Santa Barbara So. Coast $1,225,000 (Source: C.A.R.) Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region Oct. 05: High Desert $315,870 (Source: C.A.R.) Come surf the San Diego California real estate market with the assistance of Bob Schwartz , a C ertified R esidential S pecialist with 27 years experience Bob & his long board. In surfing, selecting the right board is very important. When buying or selling real estate, selecting the right real estate professional is even more important! Many times, your real estate transaction is going to be the largest monetary decision you'll ever make! This is not something you want to trust to just anyone! Bob Schwartz, Certified Residential Specialist Just 5% of all Realtors have earned this coveted nation designation! San Diego real estate table of content s Sellers -Expose your property to over 96 Times more traffic than most real estate sites! www.brokerforyou.com Summary by Month Month Monthly Totals Visits Pages Files Hits Mar 2005 17341 41148 238856 309153 Feb 2005 14726 34034 221890 281081 Jan 2005 15353 35013 239054 295682 San Diego rentals For San Diego rental information on these rental and others, visit the free San Diego rental & sale photo site at: San Diego for sale by owner Find YOUR San Diego Dream Home Get FREE local real estate news ! 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Featuring La Jolla real estate Del Mar real estate Encinitas real estate The expertise of Bob Schwartz, real estate broker , Certified Residential Specialist = Your BEST POSSIBLE Deal Buying or Selling San Diego real estate Contact Information Bob Schwartz Telephone: Toll-Fre e : Only for sale/purchase real estate inquires: 1-866-895-3715 Cell/Pager: 619-300-8819 Home office: 619-286-5604 fax: 619-229-0048 Postal address: Brokerforyou c/o Bob Schwartz 7966 Laurelridge Road, San Diego CA 92120 Electronic mail: ***Privacy Policy*** We will NEVER release, sell or give any of your information to any other party or organization. You will only receive requested information or updates and only from us. SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE INTERNET WARNING: The Internet is a great source for information, but can never be a substitute for 27 years of actual real estate experience! California real estate sales, with their myriad of disclosure laws, makes for one of the most complicated sales transactions. From Natural Hazard Disclosures to City water retrofit transfer of responsibility forms, anyone entering into a real estate transaction here, without proper advice, guidance, and professional opinion is gambling with one of their biggest monetary investments. I care about my clients and strive to help them reach their goals in a conservative, professional manner. There is no substitute for the real estate experience I can bring to any negotiation. To insure an accurate understanding of any Internet real estate data, please contact : BOB SCHWARTZ, real estate broker, Certified Residential Specialist. brokerforyou.com/Bob Schwartz does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the information contained in brokerforyou.com. brokerforyou.com does not in any way endorse the individuals described in brokerforyou.com, nor does brokerforyou.com verify qualifications, licenses, practice areas or suitability of the listed service providers or web links. In no event shall brokerforyou.com be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you in reliance on such information. Any damages or expenses of any kind, for any reason, shall be limited to the amount paid to access brokerforyou.com. The above warranties are the only warranties of any kind, either expressed or implied, including warranties of merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose. Del Cerro, Santee, La Mesa, San Carlos Epson inkjet cartridges View our partner real estate websites Best Real Estate website Award Click here to apply for this FREE real estate website award. San Diego Excellent Website Award ... is presented to those San Diego websites whose web content provides useful, instructive information, shows superior design and has achieved levels of excellence deserving of recognition Click here to apply for this FREE San Diego California website award. Web Genie Website Award is presented by search engine placement - Promotions Unlimited San Diego real estate source = brokerforyou.com San Diego real estate broker, Bob Schwartz is a Certified Residential Specialist and is active in San Diego residential sales throughout San Diego County. Just a few of the San Diego communities Bob is active in are: San Carlos - La Mesa - Fashion Valley - Mission Valley - Point Loma - Pacific Beach - Clairemont - North Park - Hillcrest - Mission Hills - Kensington - San Diego State College -Santee - El Cajon - Lakeside - Allied Gardens - Del Cerro



Texas Land

Texas Veterans Land Board In Texas, call us Toll Free:1-800-252-VETS (8387) Outside Texas? Call 1-512-463-5060 (long distance charges apply) (PDF) -- • State Veterans Home Resident Awarded Bronze Star (PDF) • VLB is accepting nominations for naming the Texas State Veterans Home being built in Amarillo. Read the Press Release (PDF) and the Policy for Naming Texas State Veterans Homes ( Word2000 ) ( PDF ) and complete the Nomination Form ( Word2000 ) ( PDF ) • Corpus Christi awarded next Texas State Veterans Cemetery (PDF) • The Results of the October 25, 2005, FLS are now available on-line (PDF) • Watch the archived edition of the October 25, 2005, FLS Web cast • First Texas State Veterans Cemetery dedicated in Killeen (PDF) • Central Texas State Veterans Cemetery Dedication Information • James Baker III to help dedicate first Texas State Veterans Cemetery (PDF) • Rio Grande Valley State Veterans Cemetery Groundbreaking Information • Work begins on Valley's first Texas State Veterans Cemetery (PDF) The October Type I Forfeited Land Sale Handbooks are now available online (PDF) -- • Chairman Patterson visits veterans in Iraq • VLB Board Member, Mike Ussery, passes away after attending the dedication of the Texas State Veterans Home in McAllen, scheduled to open July 1, 2005. (PDF) • "Where Honor Lives" • "Voices of Veterans" Oral History Program • "Defending Freedom" A new TV Announcement honoring Texas Veterans from 1836 to today. Play Video 60 seconds High | Low Play Video 30 seconds High | Low Broadcaster Information (PDF) • Texas Veterans Voice Fall 2005 Veterans Voice Newsletter (PDF) Archived Editions of the Veterans Voice Newsletter • Media and Press Releases • Financial help available for activated Texas Reservists and National Guard members (PDF) ATTENTION-Loan Program Changes!!! VLB Land Loan maximum now $60,000. Land Loan now available for one-acre tracts. VHAP Changes Effective March 4, 2005: New-Construction housing loans must meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Energy Star ® rating as an energy efficient home. The Greenbuilding and Troops to Teachers Programs will no longer be available. The interest rate discounts previously associated with these programs will be re-directed to reducing the overall base rate for the Housing and Home Improvement Programs. The veterans with Disabilities Program discount will be available only to veterans with a VA compensable disability rated at 50% or higher. • Federal legislation filed to end discrimination in veteran loan eligibility • Convert your semiannual land loan payments to monthly payments (PDF) Message from Chairman Patterson Chairman Jerry Patterson Speaks to Veterans About the Veterans Land Board. (run time: 10:15) Play Video High | Low Land Loan Account Status Free Public Seminars and Educational Events • For Veterans • For Lenders • For Real Estate Professionals--view our upcoming events . Contact your nearest Outreach office for training opportunities. Registration for Veterans, Real Estate Professionals, and VLB Participating Lenders • Registration for Veterans to receive VLB program updates • Registration for Real Estate Professionals to receive VLB program updates • Web listing updates for VLB Participating Lenders Veterans' Resources • The National Personnel Records Center (NPRC) now accepting requests for some military records via the Internet • The Texas Veterans Commission (TVC) for information on VA benefits Laws and Rules • Laws and Rules PDF Files require the free Adobe Acrobat reader. Video media require the free Real Player . Privacy Policy Links/Accessibility Policy For our customers who are hearing impaired: The VLB TDD number is (512) 463-6367 or contact any of our program areas through Relay Texas at 1-800-735-2988. For more information, contact us .




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