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Google Answers: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators Log in | Google Answers Home View Question Ask a Question Q: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators ( Answered , 5 Comments ) Question Subject: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators Category: Family and Home > Home Asked by: nronronronro-ga List Price: $25.00 Posted: 19 Apr 2005 15:33 PDT Expires: 19 May 2005 15:33 PDT Question ID: 511542 Hi There!I was goofing off today, and started looking throughwww.craigslist.com for real estate. I looked at 11 different citiesfrom San Francisco to Phoenix to Washington, D.C.Mini-Eureka moment! I noticed the number of lease-options availablehas increased significantly in each and every city. 11 of 11 towns! The last time I checked www.craigslist.com was 5 months ago.This observation sparked my rusty brain cells. There must be leadingindicators for real estate, in the same way there are leadingindicators for stocks. Here's a list of possible danger signals forreal estate off the "top of my head":1. Increasing lease-options2. Increasing number of days on the market3. Increasing number of unsold homes in a city4. Decreasing ratio of Asking Price/Transaction Price5. Increasing number of homes on the market more than 120 days6. Decreasing number of mortgage applications7. Increasing number of newspaper classified ads for real estateI'm not a real estate guy. But I'm sure some brilliant professor hasdevised a computer model to predict when real estate prices willdecline 6-12 months hence.A 5-star answer would be 5-10 additional leading indicators for realestate. No background material needed. (However, if you happen tofind an objective study on leading indicators then I would love totake a look at that, too.)All comments greatly appreciated!Thanks.ronP.S. Please note that indicators like "Forecasted Job Growth" or"Forecasted Property Tax Receipts" won't help much, precisely becausethey are forecasts and not hard data. The best indicators wouldinvolve hard numbers that can be observed right now, and used to makecomparisons.EXAMPLES:1. Days on the market for San Francisco versus days on the market for Phoenix.2. Days on the market for San Francisco in April 2005 versus days onthe market in San Francisco in January 2002.(This question doesn't involve specific numbers or specific cities. Rather, it involves the kind of indicators one might observe. Thx.) Answer Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators Answered By: easterangel-ga on 19 Apr 2005 16:59 PDT Rated: Hi! Thanks for the question.The National Association of Realtors provides a list of real estateindicators that one can analyze to indicate some trends. Here are someof the indicators that they follow:- Existing Home Sales- Pending Home Sales Index- New Home Sales- Housing Starts- Housing Affordability- Mortgage Rates- Mortgage Applications“Latest Economic Indicators” http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EcoIndicator The US Census website provides a historical basis for its leadingindicators for real estate. The statistics are from 1900 to 2002.The indicators mentioned in the Census website are the following:- New housing units started - New one family houses sold- Existing one family houses sold- Manufacturing shipments- Index of industrial production- Manufacturing index- Retail Sales- Exports Basis- General Imports“No. HS-40. Economic Indicators for Construction, Real Estate, Manufacturing,Retail, and Foreign Trade Sectors: 1900 to 2002” http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-40.pdf Finally, here is an academic study about real estate prices.“Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles” http://urbanpolicy.berkeley.edu/pdf/Q_IRER99PB.pdf Search terms used: “real estate” housing economic indicatorsstudies real estate prices filetype:pdfI hope these links would help you in your research. Before rating thisanswer, please ask for a clarification if you have a question or ifyou would need further information. Thanks for visiting us. Regards, Easterangel-ga Google Answers Researcher Request for Answer Clarification by nronronronro-ga on 20 May 2005 15:33 PDT Alas, Phil...only the women in my life are cash-flow positive. Thatis to say, they stay positive when I let the cash flow.heh heh hehThanks for your great insights, Phil. As always!ron Clarification of Answer by easterangel-ga on 20 May 2005 17:43 PDT Hi!Sorry about this but I just have to make a reply to clarifications.Sincerely.Easterangel nronronronro-ga rated this answer: Heavenly answer, easterangel.As always, thanks a million !ron Comments Log in to add a comment Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: easterangel-ga on 19 Apr 2005 18:25 PDT You're welcome as well. Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: pafalafa-ga on 20 Apr 2005 05:03 PDT Since we're doing some work on the house in DC, I've been paying moreattention that usual to the real estate pages of the Washington Post.One of the sort-of-indicators that they mention often is theincreasing amount of property that is bought as an investment, ratherthan as a first home. They also cite the increasing trends in2nd-home sales.For both of these though, I don't know if there's an actual statistic,or just the observation of people in the business.Nice work, though, easterangel.paf Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: nronronronro-ga on 20 Apr 2005 10:52 PDT Thanks, pafalafa!My business partner just purchased a home across the street from theNational Cathedral. He obviously checked out DC. He found the "PMIRisk Index" for DC was very low, whereas the same PMI Risk Index formy state (California) was very high. The only place more risky thanSan Francisco/San Jose was Boston.Rut Row !ron Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: silver777-ga on 24 Apr 2005 05:35 PDT Ron,Your application of logic is spot on.Your points 1 to 7 could relate to any real estate market.In fact, I had counted the number of "for sale" ads by COLUMNnot just the pages. I also counted the number of propertiesfor lease. Another gauge might be to weigh the newspaper, orin the least the real estate section. I reckon that the more "for lease" properties tells us a lot about the climate of the sale market. An increase in borrowing rates will impact on the rental rates and realised sale prices,regardless of the asking prices published. Check also the auctionclearance rates.Have you sourced any cash-flow positive properties of late?Phil Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: nronronronro-ga on 20 May 2005 15:34 PDT Alas, Phil...only the women in my life are cash-flow positive. Thatis to say, they stay positive when I let the cash flow.heh heh hehThanks for your great insights, Phil. As always!ron Important Disclaimer: Answers and comments provided on Google Answers are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. 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