Investment Property for a

How to Sell an Investment Property for a Loss - eHow.com Clear Instructions on How To Do (just about) Everything Web eHow.com Home Finance & Business Center Real Estate How to Sell an Investment Property for a Loss Selling an investment property for a loss will give you a tax write-off directly against your income. Steps: 1. Calculate your "basis;" this is the base variable used to calculate the gain or loss on the sale of a property. Your original basis is comprised of the property's purchase price plus the buying expenses (non-recurring escrow costs such as title insurance, escrow fees, recording fees, transfer taxes, commission, tax service, deed preparation, credit report, appraisal fee and termite inspection) upon acquisition. 2. Calculate your adjusted basis. The adjusted basis is the original basis plus improvements made to the property while you've owned it. 3. Sell the property. With an all-cash transaction the tax event occurs in the year the property is sold. 4. Calculate depreciation. (According to the I.R.S., every asset has a useable life, and the amount of depreciation is calculated according to the life of a certain asset. Consult with the I.R.S. or an accountant/C.P.A. to determine the correct amount of depreciation you should use.) Use the total amount of depreciation taken on tax returns for the total time the property has been held. 5. Calculate the expenses of the sale. Expenses include real estate agent commission (if any) and any other expenses directly associated with the sale of the property. 6. Add the expenses of the sale to the adjusted cost basis. This is your new adjusted basis. 7. Add the total depreciation to the sales price, and subtract from the new adjusted basis. This is the amount of your loss. 8. Assure yourself of a loss by calculating that the adjusted cost basis of the property plus the expense of sale will be greater than the gross sales price plus all depreciation. 9. File I.R.S. form 4797, Sale of Business Property. Tips: Points are not deducted as a buying expense, but are amortized over the life of the loan. Properties held for investment must have been used for personal use less than 14 days throughout the year. There are other ways to sell investment property, such as through an installment sale or an exchange. Consult a C.P.A or exchange facilitator for assistance. These selling options are complicated and require the assistance of a trained professional. Sometimes a seller will agree to pay a certain number of the borrower's points for obtaining a loan. When a seller pays points for a loan, they are considered to be selling expenses (just like a commission) and can be added to the adjusted cost basis. Warnings: In order to include certain selling costs, such as repairs required to sell the property, these costs have to occur within a specific period of time before the sale to qualify. Check with your accountant or C.P.A. Please Share Your Tips with Us More Resources: Contribute to eHow: Write an eHow Article Suggest a Topic Give Us Feedback on This Article Related eHows: Choose a Real Estate Agent to Sell a House Pay Taxes on Your Rental Home Get Tax-Free Profit From Your Rental Home Sell Mineral Rights Do a Tax-Deferred Exchange on Investment Property Things You'll Need: calculators tax consultants Project Details: Skill Advisory: Moderately Easy New! -- Related eHows: Choose a Real Estate Agent to Sell a House Pay Taxes on Your Rental Home Get Tax-Free Profit From Your Rental Home Sell Mineral Rights Do a Tax-Deferred Exchange on Investment Property Check out Thousands of How-To Solutions in eHow's Centers Automotive Careers & Education Computers & Home Electronics Family & Relationships Finance & Business Food & Entertaining Health Hobbies & Games Holidays & Traditions Home & Garden Personal Care & Style Pets Sports & Fitness Travel How to: --? Web eHow.com Home | Site Map | About Us | How To Books | Link to eHow Subscribe to the eHow of the Day Mailing List : Have the eHow of the Day appear on your My Yahoo! Page: Add the eHow of the Day to your RSS reader: © 1999-2005 eHow, Inc. How things get done. Use of this web site constitutes acceptance of the eHow Terms of Use and Privacy .

Real Estate Investing

Bob Bruss Real Estate Center An Audio Message from Bob Bruss Subscribe to Bob's Weekly e-mail update and get this Free Report: 2005 Realty Tax Tips: 8 Chapters of Tax Savings for Homeowners and Investors First Name: Primary E-mail Address: >> Order Bob’s Special Real Estate Reports only $4.95 each! >> Ask Bob a Real Estate Question >> Subscribe to Bob’s Newsletters NEW REPORT! “Foreclosure and Distress Property Profit Secrets” >> Order Why pay upwards of $300 per hour for real estate legal, tax or investment advice? Bob Bruss, America’s most trusted real estate expert, offers Special Reports on a wide range of real estate topics for less than $5.00 each! Bob’s columns appear in over 150 newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times and San Francisco Chronicle. Bob draws on more than 25 years of real estate writing, teaching and investing to bring you unbiased information that will help you make smart real estate decisions. Click above & get a free 6-month newsletter subscription! Bob's Notebook SIX KEY REAL ESTATE NEGOTIATION TIPS FOR BUYERS, SELLERS Determining other party's motivation paramount to success The year 2005 has been very good for most property owners and realty sales agents. Home sales prices appreciated handsomely in most communities and the sales volume of new and resale homes were near-record. But 2006 promises to be more "normal" as mortgage interest rates slowly rise, resulting in a modest new home construction volume decline with a corresponding residence market value appreciation and sales volume slowing. Having been through many real estate market ups and downs over almost four decades, both as an investor, sales broker, and realty writer, I've learned that success in a slowing real estate market requires paying greater attention to negotiation skills. NEGOTIATE WITH PEOPLE WHO WANT TO NEGOTIATE . As a lifelong student of real estate negotiation techniques, because there is always more to learn, I've discovered it usually is a waste of time to attempt to negotiate with people who are not highly motivated to make a change. Most experienced real estate agents hate the situation when a home seller lists their desirable property for sale with a top price but they really don't have a good motivation for selling. These sellers often have the attitude "If we can get our price, we'll sell. Otherwise, we won't sell." Their homes often take "forever" to sell. But in 2005, many homes sold for above their asking prices because buyers wanted to purchase more than sellers wanted to sell. A strong motivation for many buyers was to beat the long-predicted rise in home mortgage interest rates. The result was a "seller's market" in many communities with more qualified buyers than motivated sellers. However, as the number of residence listings for sale has risen recently and is expected to continue rising in early 2006, especially after the customary holiday 2005 year-end lull in home sales, many real estate economists are predicting a more normal balance of motivated sellers and buyers. The result should put a premium on negotiation skills for home buyers and sellers, as well as their realty agents, to conclude successful sales. HOW TO ACHIEVE A SUCCESSFUL NEGOTIATION . Whatever your role in a home sale, as buyer, seller or realty agent, you can't ask too many questions. Of course, the best negotiators inquire in a friendly manner interjected with compliments. Here are the six key questions to get answered for a successful home sale negotiation: 1. WHY IS THE SELLER SELLING THIS LOVELY HOME? One way or another, successful home buyers and their realty agents need the answer to this key question so the buyer can make a purchase offer which meets the seller's needs (of course, buyers should leave out the word "lovely" if the place is a dump!). As a long-time investor in rental houses, and my personal residences, I always try to tailor my purchase offers to meet the seller's needs (and mine too). For example, several years ago I bought a house from an elderly lady who was retiring. So I offered her 10 percent cash down payment and a 90 percent seller carryback mortgage to provide for her retirement income. When she saw my offer and how much she would receive from my payment each month, she accepted (although the listing agent previously told me she wouldn't carry back any mortgage financing). Another time a listing agent told me the retired sellers of an "el dumpo" house were living in a boarding house and needed cash. As a result, I figured they wanted an all-cash sale so I arranged 100 percent financing at a community bank. The sellers immediately accepted my low purchase price offer for cash. 2. WHAT WAS THE HOME SELLER'S PURCHASE PRICE? Buyers who don't find out the answer to this key question, either from the listing agent or their buyer's agent, are at a severe negotiation disadvantage. Here's why: If the seller purchased the home many years ago for a low purchase price compared to today's market value, that seller has lots of negotiation room. However, if the home seller bought within the last few years for a price not far from today's market value, there isn't much negotiation flexibility. Of course, if the seller has a high-motivation reason for selling, as disclosed by the answer to the first question, even a recent home buyer is often willing to sell in a quick sale for close to the seller's purchase price. Such a situation is an ideal candidate for the buyer to take over payments on the current mortgage with the lender's permission. 3. DOES THE OTHER PARTY HAVE A TIME DEADLINE? This is a question both home buyer and seller should ask of their realty agent. To illustrate, if one party has a job transfer, then purchase or sale of the home can be very important. But if the seller is moving to a retirement residence, time usually isn't so critical. However, if the seller already bought another home and needs to sell the current home to produce the down payment, then closing time is ultra-important. As experienced real estate agents know, the worst home buyers and sellers are those without any time deadlines. Those folks can take forever to make decisions. 4. HAS THE SELLER OBTAINED A PROFESSIONAL HOME INSPECTION REPORT? Today's smartest real estate agents suggest their sellers obtain a professional inspection report at the time of listing the home for sale. Then the seller is fully aware of most home defects and can either have the defect repaired or fully disclose it to prospective buyers, thus averting future lawsuits. Sharp home purchasers, and their buyer's agents, understand this trend. When a buyer is seriously interested in a house, always ask if the seller has already obtained a professional inspection the buyer can review before making a purchase offer. Even if the seller has obtained customary professional inspection reports, smart buyers should always include in their purchase offers a contingency clause for the buyer's approval of their own inspection report obtained at the buyer's expense. Most states now have some form of required seller disclosure statement revealing known home defects. However, many sellers are not aware of all their home's defects, or they might "forget" to disclose a defect. The old days of "caveat emptor" (let the buyer beware) have disappeared. Today, the new rule seems to be "let the home seller beware of the buyer and his lawyer." 5. WHAT IS THE BUYER'S MOTIVATION TO PURCHASE MY HOME? Just as home buyers need to know the seller's reason for selling, to create a harmonious negotiation situation, home sellers should ask why the buyer wants to purchase. Of course, there are many home purchase reasons. However, if the buyer has indicated a key reason why that particular house is under consideration, such as its great condition, outstanding school district, or need to move in quickly, the seller can use that information to enhance their negotiation position. 6. ASK AN OPEN-ENDED QUESTION, SUCH AS WHAT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SHOULD I KNOW BEFORE MAKING A DECISION? There are many variations of this question home sellers and buyers can ask, especially of their real estate agents. To illustrate, a home buyer might ask their buyer's agent "What else should I know about this house?" Or the seller might ask their listing agent "If you were in my situation, would you accept or counteroffer the buyer's purchase offer?" SUMMARY : When negotiating a home sale, sellers and buyers can't ask too many questions to enhance their negotiation position. The prime reason is to determine how motivated the other party is to buy or sell. If there is weak motivation, you aren't in a strong negotiation situation. However, if the other party is highly motivated, then you are in a strong circumstance to negotiate your strongest price and terms. More details are in my special report, "How to Become a Super-Successful Real Estate Negotiator," available for $5 from Robert Bruss, 251 Park Road, Burlingame, CA 94010 or by credit card at 1-800-736-1736 or instant Internet PDF delivery at www.bobbruss.com . Back to top © 2005 Inman News Home | Real Estate Reports | Real Estate Newsletter | About Bob Bruss | Site Map

Denver Real Estate

Denver Real Estate and Relocation, Littleton Real Estate, Denver Metro Area County Real Estate, Tim Pfannenstiel " Denver Homes, Real Estate & Relocation Access all listings! Have you ever wanted to see all of the listings your Realtor sees? Now, with a HomeCard, you can finally have the 'INSIDE SCOOP'. Area Market Stats. Need to know what home prices are doing in your community? What did the neighbors really get for their home? Make an informed buying or selling decision with your HomeCard. Auto Email Alerts. In a 'HOT' Real Estate market, do other home buyers learn about new listings before you do? Sign up for a HomeCard and stop worrying now. You will automatically receive an email alert whenever a property matching your Profile becomes available. Store Documents. Your HomeCard gives you a convenient place to store all house related documents on-line. Shop For Loans. Worried about getting the best possible deal on your loan? Let us help you get funded. Home Services. Access home improvement products and services on-line. Read reviews and rate these vendors on-line. Permanent Site. Your HomeCard survives the Real Estate transaction and becomes a permanent Web Site for your new home. Email Listings Program! Why drive all over the city or spend hours in front of you computer when this FREE service can do the work for you? With Homefinder, I will help you find your dream home by conducting a daily search of my listing database on your behalf. Each day that I find new properties matching your criteria, I will promptly let you know via email. CLICK HERE TO GET STARTED TODAY!! Whether You Are Buying Or Selling A Home, View Tim's Commitment To You! Click Here SELLING OR REFINANCING? Click Here for a FREE Comparative Market Analysis on your home! FREE! REPORTS Real Estate Information The buying or selling of your home will be one of the most important transactions of your lifetime... 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Home Mortgage

National Real Estate Investor - commercial real estate investing and development About Us | Contact Us | Advertising | For Search Partners | Privacy Policy Sort by Date Relevancy Resources and Services Capital Markets Center Retail Tenant Directory Best of the Best Industry News Developer News Broker News Area Reviews Executive Q&A Office Multifamily Retail Industrial Hotel Net Lease/1031 Exchanges REIT Updates Investors Capital Markets Property Management Corporate Real Estate Technology Tax Issues First Word Financing Today Money & Real Estate Tax Notes Washington Wire Last Word Retail Traffic Industry Associations Data Points Home -- Kelo Verdict Bolsters Private Development As Public Use -- TIME TO SELL? New research from National Real Estate Investor and Retail Traffic , and sponsored by Hutensky Capital Partners, provides insights on the climate for shopping center sales. Click here to download . December's Cover Story Forecast 2006: Five trends driving the industry Dec 1, 2005 12:00 PM While mounting pressures may produce cracks in the economic recovery in 2006, the nation is on track to close out 2005 on a resilient note. Real GDP growth... More -- FEATURED DOWNLOAD 100 Ways to Save Costs in your Retail Operation Supplement For ways to save on day-to-day operational products and services, be sureto to download a copy of our 100+ Ways to Save including a complete listing ofSimon Preferred Vendors and Service Providers. Clickhere to download . News Articles GE/Arden Deal Caps Big M&A Year Dec 28, 2005 3:32 AM When General Electric agreed to buy office real estate investment trust (REIT) Arden Realty last Thursday, the $3.2 billion deal capped a heady year for REIT mergers. Not only is the southern California-based office landlord the eighth publicly-traded REIT to change hands this year in roughly $20 billion worth of deals, but its also further evidence that institutional capital still has a voracious appetite for real estate. And December proved to be an especially active month for REIT mergers: Centerpoint Properties Trust was sold to a joint venture earlier this month for $2.4 billion.... More -- Ground Zero Waiting Game Dec 21, 2005 1:49 PM Four years after the 9-11 attacks, lower Manhattans office market is on the mend. But 7 World Trade Center, one of the first towers to rise along Ground Zero, is lagging behind the recovery with just 40,000 sq. ft. of its entire 1.7 million sq. ft. leased as of late December. The problem, say brokerage sources, are the above-market rents at 7 World Trade Center, which is being developed by Silverstein Properties and is slated for occupancy in March. ... More -- D.C. Hotel Property Sold Dec 21, 2005 10:57 AM LaSalle Hotel Properties has bought a downtown Washington, D.C. hotel for $44.6 million. The hotel REIT also plans to invest another $21 million into the Holiday Inn Downtown. ... More -- GE Buys Swedish Office Tower Dec 21, 2005 10:55 AM GE Commercial Finance Real Estate has bought the leasehold to Gta Ark, an office building located in downtown Stockholm. The purchase price amounts to roughly $57 million (U.S.). Approximately 28% of the property is leased to the Local Authority of Stockholm. This is the second office property that GE Commercial Finance Real Estate has acquired in Stockholm since last summer. ... More -- GE Lends To Investment Fund Operator Dec 21, 2005 10:54 AM GE Commercial Finance Real Estate has closed a $28.7 million transaction with HEI Hospitality for the HEI acquisition of the 250-room, full service Sheraton Fort Lauderdale Airport. ... More -- Hoteliers Eye Booming 2006: Report Dec 16, 2005 11:48 AM The U.S. hotel industry should post record profits in 2006, based on a recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers hospitality practice. Not only is 2006 likely to bring record profits but also the industry should expect two more years of solid growth. ... More -- No Worries On Non-Core Industrial Development Spike Dec 14, 2005 1:34 PM Planned development activity in secondary and tertiary industrial markets set a blistering pace in the third quarter with 38.5 million sq. ft. of new construction starts, reports CB Richard Ellis. That was up from only 16 million sq. ft. in the second quarter. Whats more interesting, however, is that a full third of that third quarter activity was initiated in secondary and tertiary industrial markets rather than the major shipping hubs on the west and east coast. ... More -- Property Fund Launched Dec 9, 2005 4:24 PM Henderson Global Investors has launched an open-ended, commingled real estate fund that will invest in a range property classes. The fund will chiefly buy apartment, retail, industrial and office properties located in select U.S. markets. Henderson Global Investors manages more than $10.1 billion in assets. ... More -- CB Richard Ellis and Trammell Crow Agree… The top 2 U.S. asset managers -- CB Richard Ellis and Trammell Crow -- have all moved to the Realm PAY Platform for Paper-Free A/P. Click here to discover why. The Best of the Best 2005 Oct 20, 2005 1:55 PM National Real Estate Investor presents its annual rankings of the leading commerical real estate companies. Intent on shedding its image as a highly fragmented industry, commercial real estate continues to experience a wave of consolidation. For industry veterans, it's like watching a game of PacMan. The giants of the industry are gobbling up smaller players and each other at a healthy clip.... More -- IN PRINT Current issue Hurricane Winds Blow Through Condo Market Dec 1, 2005 12:00 PM The condo market in Miami-Dade County, which is bursting at the seams with new construction and intense investor demand, took an unexpected hit in October... More -- Unlocking Building Value Through Repositioning Dec 1, 2005 12:00 PM One of the most striking buildings on Chicago's skyline is CNA Center. Since it was built in 1972, the 1.3 million sq. ft. red tower has operated as a... More -- Why Public REITs Are Going Private Dec 1, 2005 12:00 PM During the early 1990s, private real estate companies with large portfolios rushed to become public real estate investment trusts. Now the pendulum has... More -- Magazine Subscriptions Email Newsletter Advertiser Information Online Marketplace Back to Top © 2005 Primedia Business Magazines and Media. 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real estate prices in

Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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