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Real Estate Prices
Housing prices can go down. - Sep. 19, 2005 Web CNN/Money Home News Markets Technology Commentary Personal Finance Autos Real Estate Real Estate Buying & Selling SAVE | EMAIL | PRINT | SUBSCRIBE TO MONEY | Real estate: When booms go bust... Home prices can and do go down. Here's what declines have looked like in the past. September 19, 2005: 6:21 PM EDT By Les Christie, CNN/Money staff writer NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Across America, real-estate prices continue to confound the skeptics. Many Americans have come to think of their homes as rock-solid investments with little downside. And why not: For the past 40 years, national home prices have surpassed inflation by a percentage point or two on average and there has never been a national real-estate bust. But are people ignoring the risks? "I think Americans are not well aware that many markets are risky," says Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor, which sells real-estate market analysis to corporate and consumer clients. Those investors should realize that price reversals do happen, even if only locally rather than nation-wide. A look at the not so distant past reveals numerous examples of cities that went through housing busts -- followed by years of falling prices. Some have never fully recovered. Once hot, then not Take Los Angeles, where real estate has been turbocharged for nearly 10 years. But the early 1990s were a different story; the average house price in L.A. dropped from $222,200 in 1990 to $176,300 in 1996, a loss of 20.7 percent. Furthermore, those are nominal prices, not real values. To calculate the loss more realistically you would have to figure in the cost of inflation: $222,200 in 1990 would have been worth $266,700 in 1996 dollars, which means the actual loss for homeowners buying in 1990 and selling in 1996 was closer to 34 percent. Not exactly the Nasdaq meltdown for investors, but getting closer. But that's L.A., where the aerospace- and film and television production-based economy can be a bit volatile. What about cities in more traditional areas? How did things play out in Peoria, Ill. for instance? Not well, not in the early 1980s at least. Peoria experienced real-estate price drops amounting to more than 15 percent tied, in part, to strikes and lay-offs at Caterpillar, the city's biggest employer. In 1981, the average home there sold for $60,800. By 1985, that had dipped to $51,400. "Oil patch" cities, suffered even sharper declines. In Oklahoma City prices plummeted 26 percent from 1983 to 1988. It took 15 years for prices there to return to nominal 1983 levels. Houston home prices fell 22 percent from $111,000 to $86,800, and also took 15 years to rebound. Counting inflation, the average Houston home, which cost just $159,700 in 2004, is actually worth less now than it was 22 years ago. When, adjusted for inflation, a home cost about $219,000 in 1983. In Oklahoma City, the inflation-adjusted price in 1983 was $196,600. Today, it's just $135,100. The boom will end, but when? History seems to dictate that the current price boom is at risk. One factor is that real-estate investing has spiked, pressuring prices upward. In Phoenix, according to Bill Jilbert, president and COO of the Coldwell Banker brokerage there, investors from Nevada and California have invaded the Arizona market, and "affordable housing has been pushed to extremes." That story is echoed in many local markets. Low interest rates have also kept real estate bubbling. Cheap mortgages enable entry level buyers to get into the market and wealthier ones to afford more expensive houses. That means higher demand and higher prices at all market levels. Winzer says that low rates "have extended the cycle." Winzer assesses local market risk by taking into account economic and population growth, construction costs, vacancy rates, and, especially, income. He also considers such factors as density and access to open land. Prices in densely settled New York have always been higher than those of cities with lots of space for new housing. Winzer considers real estate "very risky right now." And because the price run up has been so high he expects the adjustment period where home prices stagnate as income catches up -- to take a very long time. Before they purchase a home, buyers better figure on scenario of many years of little or slow home-price appreciation. Counting on home price increases could be a big mistake. The boom has already gone on longer than Winzer thought it would. "Bubbles do tend to last longer than most people expect," he says, "and end quicker." _____________________________________________________________________________________ Think you're living in a bubble? Here are four strategies . Watch out: 5 crazy loans that could hurt you Hot markets have not slowed much yet. See that story by clicking here . 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Real Estate Loan
Mortgage Mag Main Page Mortgage Mag Main Page MBA Orlando Convention! New Clips! - View the daily clips, contact us. 1.0 State Information Loans, Lenders, Jobs, Associations 2.1 Loan Leads Lead Generation, Telemarketing 2.3 Software Registry Software, Systems, Technology 2.7 Free Loan Search Engine Find a Home for a Loan 4.1 Secondary Marketing Loan Securities, Pipeline, Software 5.0 Industry News Press Releases, Events 5.1 Market Commentary Rates, Events, Calendar 5.3 MortgageMag LIVE! Multimedia, Interviews, Audio, Video 6.1 Net Branching Branching, Associative, Partnerships 6.2 LOX Loan Officer Exchange Job Seekers & Employers 6.3 Job Listings Jobs, Resume Postings and Services 6.4 Recruiter Registry Mortgage, Banking, Finance 7.0 Consulting Registry Mortgage Banking, Finance 8.0 Mortgage Forums Jobs, Branching, IT 11.1 Appraisal Registry Find an Appraiser, Services 17.0 Administration Advertise , FREE LINK! , Search , Help • Friday Update w/ Aaron Freedman Rob Hain 12/16/2005 • Friday Update w/ Aaron Freedman Rob Hain 12/9/2005 • Friday Update w/ Aaron Freedman Rob Hain 12/2/2005 • Tuesday Market Update Rob Hain 11/29/2005 • Monday Market Update Rob Hain 11/28/2005 MortgageMag Live Interviews • Impac Mortgage Group of Companies Bill Ashmore 12/15/2005 • Quality Control in Leads Seth Goldstein 12/13/2005 • More Than Just Mortgages Roger Dunker 11/29/2005 • The Freedman Report Aaron Freedman 11/22/2005 • Old School Recruiting Rob Huxtable 10/25/2005 Market News • MortgageMag will be at the MBA Orlando Convention! - 10/04/2005 • Mortgage Application Volume Down In Latest Survey - 12/21/2005 • President Expected to Sign TRIA Legislation - 12/21/2005 • Pros See No Doom, Gloom in Slowdown - 12/19/2005 Mortgage Technology • SupportTrac and TracTalk Provide Del Mar Database Customers with Online Support Tools - 12/21/2005 • Digital Map Products Partners with Aerials Express - 12/17/2005 • SupportTrac and TracTalk Provide Del Mar Database Customers with Online Support Tools - 12/17/2005 • Swiftpro recruitment software is pleased to announce the launch of two new channel partner and reseller schemes. - 12/17/2005 Fannie Mae • Fannie Mae Updates 12/16/2005 - 12/17/2005 • Fannie Mae Alerts - 12/12/2005 • Fannie Mae Alerts - 11/15/2005 • Fannie Mae Updates 11-7-2005 - 11/07/2005 Freddie Mac • Freddie Mac Updates 12/16/2005 - 12/17/2005 • Freddie Mac Updates 12/12/2006 - 12/12/2005 • Freddie Mac Alerts - 11/15/2005 • Freddie Mac Updates - 10/28/2005 Mortgage Mag Main Page Main Index 1. Loans 2. Loan Originations 3. Loan Processing 4. Mortgage Banking 5. News/Commentary 6. Jobs & Resumes 7. Consulting Registry 8. Forums/Groups 10. Real Estate 11. Property Services 12. Finance 13. Banking 14. Credit Services 15. Legal Services 16. IT/Systems 17. Administrative 18. Related Web sites 1. Loan Center 1.1 Loans by State 1.2 Lenders by State 1.3 Commercial 1.4 Note Sales 2. Loan Originations 2.1 Loan Leads 2.2 Mortgage Marketing 2.3 Lending Software 2.4 Training/Education 2.5 Mortgage Exam 2.6 Licensing 2.7 LoanSearch Engine 2.8 Advertise/Marketing 2.9 Associations 3. Loan Processing 3.1 Processing 3.2 Underwriting 3.3 Closing 3.4 Document Services 3.5 Title Services 3.6 Mortgage Services 4. Mortgage Banking 4.1 Wholesale 4.2 Correspondent 4.3 Loan Processing 4.4 Secondary Markets 4.5 Portfolio Services 4.6 Loan Administration 4.7 International 4.8 Support Services a. Warehouse Loans b. Consultants c. Software d. Govenrment 4.9 Industry Info 5. News/Information 5.1 Market Audio 5.2 Daily News 5.3 MortgageMag Live! 5.4 Lending Forums 5.5 Convention Info 5.6 PR Posting 6. Jobs & Resumes 6.1 Branching [Net] 6.2 Loan Off Exch-LOX 6.3 Jobs - Search/Post 6.4 Recruiter Database 6.5 Job Forums 6.6 Resume Search 6.7 Resume Resources 7. Consulting Registry 8. Forums/Groups 8.1 Market Commentary 8.2 Loan Requests 8.3 Commercial Loans 8.4 Broker Licensing 8.5 Loan Leads 8.6 Mortgage Banking 8.7 Software/Technology 8.8 Branching [Net] 8.9 Employment 10. Real Estate 10.1 Agents 10.2 Resources 10.3 Commercial 10.4 Rental/Apartments 10.5 Construction 11. Property Services 11.1 Appraisal Registry 11.2 Flood Services 11.3 Property Services 11.4 Insurance 11.5 Environmental 11.6 Trust Management 11.7 Mortgage Services 11.8 Government Links 12. Finance 13. Banking 14. Credit Services 15. Legal Services 15.1 Attorneys 15.2 Accounting & Tax 16. IT/Systems 16.1 Video Services 16.2 Video Production 16.3 Webcasting 16.4 Audio 16.5 Multi-Media 16.6 Graphics 16.7 Internet Services 16.8 Software 17. Administrative 17.1 Contact 17.2 Advertising 17.3 Free Listings 17.4 News Posting 17.5 Job Posting 17.6 Resume Posting 17.7 E-Mail Posting 17.8 Search the Site 17.9 Forums 18. Related Web Sites 18.1 Home Loans 18.2 Media 18.3 Brokers 18.4 Mortgage Bank 18.5 Employment 18.6 Real Estate 18.7 Legal 18.8 Finance 18.9 Banking 18.10 Technology
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Find Real Estate, Rentals, New Houses, Real Estate Agents and Mortgages on Yahoo! Real Estate Find Real Estate, Rentals, New Houses, Real Estate Agents and Mortgages Choose Location Home Homes for Sale Apartments for Rent Home Loans Moving & Insurance Tools My Real Estate Hurricane Katrina Resources Features Classifieds • Sell Your Home • Rent Your Apartment Home Loans • Mortgage Rates • Online Rate Quotes • Refinance Loans & Rates • Home Equity Loans & Rates • Free Credit Reports Resources • Find & Compare REALTORS • Find a Mover Insurance • Homeowner's Insurance • Renter's Insurance Tools • What's My Home Worth? • Research Neighborhoods • Free School Reports • Foreclosure Center • Home Service Center Commercial Real Estate • List Commercial Property National Mortgage Rates Thu Dec 29 Mtg Loan Rate APR 30-yr Fixed: 5.70% 5.88% 15-yr Fixed: 5.27% 5.57% 1-yr ARM: 4.53% 6.89% See Local Mortgage Rates Provided by Bankrate.com Neighborhood Profile Research neighborhoods nationwide! City, State, or Zip: Real Estate Listings Browse by City New! Home Loans Center - Find, Compare, & Graph Rates Find a Home Find a Rental City & State, or Zip: Price Range: $0 $30,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $650,000 $750,000 $850,000 $1 million $1.25 million $1.5 million $1.75 million $2 million $2.25 million $2.75 million $3 million $3.5 million $4 million $4.5 million $5 million $6 million $8 million $10 million to No limit $30,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $650,000 $750,000 $850,000 $1 million $1.25 million $1.5 million $1.75 million $2 million $2.25 million $2.75 million $3 million $3.5 million $4 million $4.5 million $5 million $6 million $8 million $10 million Beds: Any 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Baths: Any 1+ 1 1/2+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Search For: Existing Homes Yahoo! Classifieds New Homes Foreclosures Advanced Search Search Commercial Real Estate Mortgage Payments Calculate your biweekly & monthly payment for different loan amounts, interest rates and amortization terms. Loan Amount: $ Term (years): Interest Rate: % Show table?: Yes No See More Loan Calculators Sponsored Links New Homes and Home Builders - iNest iNest's guide to new homes and home builders in 19 states: AZ, CO, FL, GA, IL, IN, MD, MI, MN, NC, NM, NV, OH, SC, TN, TX, VA, UT and WI. Save 1% on your new home with a cash back coupon. www.inest.com What's Your Home Worth? Thinking of selling your home? Wonder how much it might be worth? You can find out with a free home or property valuation at HouseValues.com. Click here to get started. www.housevalues.com Micro Mosaic Home Decoration Decorate your home with ancient mosaic reproductions, free color and size customization. Choose among 4000 designs. www.mosaicmarble.com (Become a Sponsor) Partner Spotlight Featured Sponsor Find a Local REALTOR by HomeGain • Find & Compare REALTORS • Get Home Prices Featured Videos Dream Home Videos by Inman Stories Real Estate News Can separated couple sell two houses in one year? Dec 20, 2005, Inman News Realty Reality: HOA Members have Greater Access to Records Dec 20, 2005, Realty Times Demystifying Escrow For First-Time Home Buyers Dec 15, 2005, RealEstateJournal.com Housing starts rise, core inflation tame Dec 20, 2005, Yahoo! Finance Dubai firm in 26.6-billion-dollar Saudi project (AFP) Dec 20, 2005, Yahoo! News Number of New Homes Increase for a Strong Year Dec 20, 2005, Quicken Loans more real estate news Homes For Sale - Apartments For Rent - Current Mortgage Rates - Real Estate Agents - Local - Yellow Pages