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Expat Singapore - Houses In Singapore For Rent Search this site Searching for aroad or building? Basics Before Coming Culture Shock Expat Tips General Info Once You're Here Setting Up Singapore Dining Singapore Life Travel Resources Careers Expat Friends Links & Resources Message Board Schools & Childcare Products & Services All Car Rental Financial Services Legal Services Furniture & Decoration Fine Wines Housing International Movers Serviced Apartments Travel Professional Maid Services ExpatSingapore About Us Advertise With Us Archived Articles E-letters Email Us Events Photos Register Search our Site Bookmark Us: Hold down Control and press D Home Register Message Board Resources About us Houses In Singapore For Rent Click here to see Apartments for rent Click here to see Rooms for rent Relocation Services Click Here EXPAT HOUSING - Your Real Estate Contact If you are interested in advertising on our site, please Email us for rates and details. For a more up-to-date listing on houses available for rent, please go to the Message Board Setting Up home in Singapore? We can help you. As we are associated with the Expat Singapore website, we will ensure your interests are looked after, and that your housing needs are best met. Tell us when you are arriving, when you'd like to view or rent the property, your budget as well as what you'd like - house versus apartment, number of rooms, facilities, preferred location, etc - and leave the rest to us. Our associates, prequalified real estate agents, will be in touch with you directly once initial contact has been made. For monthly rentals above S$2500.00 on a two year lease or above S$5000 on a one year lease, there is no charge for services. Otherwise the agency fee payable by the tenant to the real estate agent is 2 weeks' rent. Special note : Several of our realtors have given us feedback that expats seeking housing go to different agents at the same time. We do not encourage this as this not only causes confusion but often upsets all parties concerned - the agents, landlords, and ultimately the tenants themselves. You may choose not to use any of our recommended agents, but if you do, kindly cooperate and be considerate to these service professionals. Thank you. For any queries and/or assistance with viewing of any of the properties, including many more not listed here, please contact us Telephone : 65 - 6226 6062 If you are interested in advertising on our site, please Email us for rates and details. ***** Holland Road houses for rent Nice and quiet neighbourhood. Off Holland Road and very close to Holland Village. 1. 2-storey semi-detached. Newly renovated. Land size 4,800 sqft; built-in 2,800 sqft. 4+1 bedrooms. Asking S$5,000. Immediate. 2. Single storey bungalow. Charming. A little old-world style. Huge garden. Land size about 8,600 sqft; built-in 2,500 sqft. 4+1. Asking S$8,000. Immediate. 3. Off Grange Road. Very convenient to Orchard Road. Modern 3-storey semi-detached. Land size 2,200 sqft; built-up 3,000 sqft. 4+1+1. Asking S$7,000.00. Immediate. Enquiries and viewing appointments : please call (+65) - 6226 6062 or Email us Bungalows near American school 3 Unit Bungalows with Swimming Pools For Rent in the American School vicinity - yes, walk to and from school! 1. 2 units Classic-Styled Bungalow dwellings. 2. 1 unit Modern design, brand new Bungalow. Location : Right by the American School. Description. a) Approximately 8,000 sqft plot; 8000 sqft built-up for the 2 units Classic designed bungalows, with in-ground swimming pool. b) Modern brand new unit is about 11,500 sqft plot, 5,700 sqft built-up, with in-ground pool. All houses well fitted out, fully air-conditioned, cabled. 3. Price : a) Classic designs : S$13,000 per month; b) Modern design : S$16,500 per month. 4. Availability : Immediately. Please Email us or call (+65) 6226 6062. House near American / Canadian school Location : Upper Bukit Timah, in quiet residential neighbourhood. Conveniently located near shopping mall, banks, food places and French School. Description : Plot Size 7000 sqft; Built-up 4400 sqft. 4+1 rooms, with huge garden (front and back). Newly and completely renovated, like new. Asking : S$6,000.00 pm, partially furnished. Availability : Immediately. Contact: Email us or call 65-6226 6062. East Coast semi-detached house Location : Siglap, East Coast. Very convenient to city centre. Close to amenities and beach. Description : Beautiful 2-storey semi-detached house with garden. 3+1 rooms, Plot size : 2800 sqft; Built-Up space : 4,000 sqft. (Lots of space!) Asking : S$5,000.00 pm negotiable. Availability : Immediately. Contact: Email us or call 65-6226 6062. Huge East Coast townhouse for rent Location : Brand new townhouse in East Coast, right by the Tanah Merah MRT (4 minutes from condo entrance!). Description : 4 levels, 4 bedroooms, 2800 sqft of space! 2 covered basement car-park lots. Partially furnished but property comes with many electrical appliances eg overhead projector with home entertainment system, huge television set. Asking : S$3,500.00 pm negotiable. Availability : Immediately. Contact: Email us or call 65-6226 6062. Conservation shophouse: home and office One of only 5,000 units in all of Singapore. Full of History; built during Singapore's early founding days. Houses for rent: conservation shophouse, Balinese-style terrace house 1. Emerald Hill 3-storey, fully restored shophouse with roof terrace and car porch. 4 + 1. Very rarely available. Built-in: 5,000 sqft Rent: Asking S$16,000 2. Makepeace Road Beautifully landscaped, Balinese design, corner terrace house. 3 + 1 + 1 with gazebo. Charming. Land: 3,300 sqft Built-in: 3,400 sqft Rent: Asking S$9,000 These properties are available immediately. Please email Email us or phone 62266062 for further information. ***** More houses for rent 1. Bukit Timah Nature Reserve a) 3-storey semi-detached house. 4 + 1, pool. Brand new. Land: 2,220 sqft Built-in: 3,000 sqft Rent: Asking S$10,000 b) 3-storey detached bungalow. 5 + 1, pool. Brand new. Land: 4,400 sqft Built-in: 5,150 sqft Rent: Asking S$15,000 2. Kheam Hock Road, off Bukit Timah 2.5-storey bungalow, 6 + 1, pool. Rent: Asking S$15,000 3. Thomson Road a) Huge bungalow, Windsor Park. 5 + 1, pool. Land: 25,000 sqft Built-in: 7,000 sqft Rent: Asking S$28,000 b) Semi-detached, Springleaf Garden. 4 + 1. Land: 3,600 sqft Built-in: 2,800 sqft Rent: Asking S$4,500 These properties are available immediately. Please email Email us or phone 62266062 for further information. ***** Bungalows, semi-detached and terrace houses for rent 1. Gallop Road - bungalow Land: 15,000 sqft Built-in: 5,000 sqft 4 + 3, pool, beautiful garden. Rent: Asking S$15,000 2. Leedon Park - bungalow Land: 20,000 sqft Built-in: 11,000 sqft 6 + 2, pool, huge mature garden. Rent: Asking S$30,000 3. Andrew Road - bungalows (2 units) Land: 17,000 / 13,000 sqft Built-in: 5,000 sqft Both houses come with outhouse, patio and garden. Rent: Asking S$15,000 / S$11,000 4. American School vicinity, walk to school! a) Bungalows for rent with pool, 5 + 1. Land: 11,000 sqft Built-in: 5,000 sqft Rent: Asking S$13,000 b) Terrace houses for rent, 4 + 1. Land: 2,000 - 3,200 sqft Built-in: 3,000 - 3,700 sqft Rent: Asking S$5,500 - S$7,000 5. Sunset Drive (off Holland Village / Bukit Timah) Land: 6,750 sqft Built-in: 5,600 sqft 4 + 1, with pool. Rent: Asking S$11,000 6. Bukit Timah (2 units) a) Semi-detached house, brand new. 4 +1. Land: 4,400 sqft Built-in: 3,500 sqft Rent: Asking S$7,500 b) Bungalow, 4 + 3. Land: 10,000 sqft Built-in: 5,500 sqft Rent: Asking S$11,000 These properties are available immediately. Please email Email us or phone 62266062 for further information. ***** West Coast bungalow for rent Description: 11,500 sqft bungalow on hilltop. 4 + 1 bedrooms plus 3 bathrooms, swimming pool (regularly maintained) and patio. Fully furnished. Location: Pasir Panjang, West Coast Availability: Immediate Rent: Asking S$5,500 Contact: 62266062 or Email us ***** Bungalow House for Rent Almost new, beautiful 3-storey bungalow house, 6+1 rooms with built-in wardrobes, 4 bathrooms, high ceiling living hall (7m), 2 jacuzzi bathtubs. Big masterbedroom. Approx. 5000 sq.ft with aboveground pool. Located in bungalow zone, 50m away from quiet playground, walking distance to East Coast Park, 400m from Kembangan MRT. Price : Asking $11K, partially furnished. Available now. Contact : email us or 62266 062 ***** House for rent at Woodgrove View, Century Woods, next to American school Location: Woodgrove View, Century Woods. 1 minute walk to American school. Large American Community. MRT station and Supermarket within walking distance. Price: S$5,500 Size: 3,200 sq ft built-in, small garden in the front yard. 5 airy bedrooms plus family room with high ceiling. Features: 3 Storey Corner Terrace House. Brand new, fully aircon and partially furnished. Quality finish. Availability: Immediate. Contact: Email us or at (+65) 6226 6062. ***** The Best of Century Woods Phase 2 Location : Woodgrove Walk (adjacent to Singapore American School). Just 1 minute walk to American School. Large and friendly American community. Price : S$7,500 per month. Size: 5 bedrooms plus 1 maid's room plus extra family room. Built in spacious 3,400 sq ft. Features: Brand new 3-storey corner terrace. High ceiling with unique alcove design (not standard feature to all units). Fully air-conditioned. Beautiful garden. Autogate. Morning sun. Partially furnished. Availability: Immediate Contact: Tel: 6226 6062 or email: email us ***** House for rent at Woodgrove View at Century Woods Location: Woodgrove View, Century Woods. Next to American School in Woodlands. Large American Community. Price : S$7.000 Size: Cosy 5 bedrooms plus family room and courtyard. Built in 3,200 sq ft. Features: Intermediate 3 Storey Terrace House. Brand new, fully aircon and partially furnished. Availability : Immediate. Contact: 6226 6062 or email Email us ***** House for rent: a life of luxury awaits you Location : Brandt New 4 Storey Cluster House with full condo facilities and 24 hours security, located 5 mins away from Tanah Merah MRT station, 10 mins to Bugis Junction & City Hall where the Central Business District offers the most cosmopolitan lifestyle. Ideal for nature lovers as is only 5 min drive to East Coast Beach where the famous "Lagoon Seafood Centre" is located. Description : Fully Furnished with five designer bedrooms with full panel of wardrobes, IDD line, SCV, night table with lamps. Master bedroom & living facing swimming pool & greenery. One large living/dinning area & one basement family hall. 2 patios, and 1 large veranda, 1 utility room, 1 store room & washer. See Photos Size : 3,000 sq ft. Price : S$ 4,000.00 per month Available : Immediate Contact : 6226 6062 or email at Email us ***** The following houses were advertised here and rented. They have been placed here so readers know what kind of accommodation Singapore offers. ***** House for rent at Holland Grove Location : Holland Grove vicinity single storey semi-detached, 10 minute walk to Henry Park Primary School and Jelita Cold Storage. Quiet residential area Price : S$5,000 per month. Size: Land 4,069 sq. ft. Built in approx. 2,300 sq ft. Features: Car porch, large living and dining, study, kitchen, 3 bedrooms. Fully air-conditioned. Autogate. Mature garden. Partially furnished. See Photos Availability: Taken Contact: 6226 6062 or Email us ***** House for rent off Grange Road Location : Jalan Kelawar (off One Tree Hill), 3 min from Orchard Road. Description : 3 bedroom, 2 story house, front garden with 2 fish ponds, outhouse, BBQ. Price : S$6800 per month negociable. Availability : Taken Contact : 6226 6062 or email at Email us ***** Semi-Detached House at Siglap Description : Modern and well constructed house in the East Coast for rent. Clean lines, functionally laid out, bright and spacious. There are 5 + 1 + 1 rooms. Fully equipped kitchen with all the appliances to make it your home. Location : Off Siglap Road. 10 minutes by car to CBD Price : S$5,500.00 per month Size : Approx 3,600 sq ft land ; 4,200 sq ft built-in. Availability : Taken ***** House For Rent at Garlick Avenue Location : Bukit Timah vicinity, double storey bungalow house with swimming pool in one of Singapore's finest residential areas. Quiet neighbourhood. 10 mins drive to Orchard Road. Land area : 10,475 sq ft Built-in : 3,853 sq ft Rooms: 4 rooms with attached bathroom Features : High celing, fully air-conditioned. Well kept garden. Partially furnished. See Photos Price : $ 8,000 per month, negotiable. Availability : Taken ***** House for rent at East Coast Location : East Coast vicinity, 3 storey S/Detached, 5 mins to airport, 15 mins to city centre, Quiet neighbourhood. Price : S$5500 per month, negotiable depending what is needed. Size : Built-in 3111 ft2. Features : Large living & dining, Very large master bedroom + 4 bedrooms + 1 maid's room, 6 toilets, Fully air-con, Full kitchen, Car porch, Autogates, Alarm system, Wardrobes Available : Taken ***** 29 Kelulut Hill Location : 29 Kelulut Hill, Off Seletar Hills Type : 2-Storey Intermediate Terrace House Price : S$3,500 /pm (negotiable) with partial furnishings Size : Land: 1,884 sqft / Built-in: 2,151 sqft Features : 4 Bedrooms + 4 En-Suite Bathrooms; Maid's room; Brand New; Autogate; cul-de-sac. Quiet residential area; yet walking distance to shops and amenities. Photos available Availability : Taken No 36, Jalan Merah Saga Location : No 36, Jalan Merah Saga Singapore 278111 Type : 2 storey semi-detached house Price : S$15,000 /pm (negotiable) with partial furnishings Size : Land: 3770 sqft / Built-In: 2500 sqft Features : 5 Bedrooms + 3 Bathrooms + Huge Dining Room Photos available Availability : Taken 31 Nim Green Location: 31 Nim Green, Off Seletar Hills Type : 2-Storey Semi-Detached Price : S$3,500 /pm (negotiable) with partial furnishings Size : Land: 4500 sqft / Built-in: 3520 sqft Features : 3 Bedrooms + 3 Bathrooms + 1 Store-room Photos available Availability : Taken House Also For Sale At S$2.5 million 75 Neram Road Location: 75 Neram Road, Off Seletar Hills, (Near American School) Type : Brand New 2 1/2 Storey Detached Bungalow Price : S$15,000 /pm (negotiable) with partial furnishings Size : Land: 6000 sqft / Built-in: 5500 sqft Features : 6 Bedrooms + 5 Bathrooms + 1 Study-Room + 1 Store-Room + Huge Attic Photos + Floor Plan available Availability : Taken Back to Products and Services About Us | Advertise With Us | Email Us | Missing Links | Register | Search General Info | Getting Here | Starting Up | Once You're Here | Enjoying Singapore | Eating in Singapore | Message Board | FAQs | Products & Services | Links ExpatSingapore Jurong West Post Office P.O. 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Estero Florida Real Estate - Bonita Springs Florida Real Estate - Lee County Real Estate Select Page Community Links School Information Apply Online Interest Rates Favorite Links Consumer Links Realty Times News Real Estate News Useful Tools Resource Center REALTOR® Links Link Exchange Email Me Lynette L. Grout, P.A. & Friley Saucier, P.A. Bonita Springs, Florida Real Estate Estero, Florida Real Estate Naples, Florida Real Estate Click a Neighborhood and learn more: Pelican Landing | The Colony Golf & Bay Club | The Colony at Pelican Landing | Bonita Bay Mediterra | Bay Colony | Pelican Bay Southwest Florida Relocation Lynette and Friley have helped many families relocate to the Bonita Springs, Estero and Naples area and they know that there is more to the relocation process than just moving your family's possessions from one home to another. One of the ways Lynette and Friley can help make your move to Bonita Springs, Estero and Naples as smooth as possible is by providing you with free relocation information. You will find everything you need to know about real estate in Bonita Springs, Estero and Naples within one easy source. This comprehensive on-line tool offers direct access to the latest properties for sale featuring extensive community information, consumer links, school information, free reports, answers to commonly asked real estate. Bonita Springs Florida MLS Are you looking to buy the home of your dreams in Bonita Springs, Estero or Naples? With the free MLS (Multiple Listing Service) on-line search you'll be able to access Bonita Springs real estate, Estero real estate and Naples real estate. With the areas largest inventory of listing, you will be able to immediately search for properties and view information about all homes that are currently available and quickly locate homes based on your needs, complete with pictures and descriptions. What is in it for you? If you currently own property in the Bonita Springs real estate, Estero real estate and Naples real estate market and are thinking of selling, this site contains information about preparing your home for sale, selecting the right agent, pricing your home appropriately, marketing it effectively, going through the inspection processes, and receiving a timely market evaluation. Thanks for visiting our on-line real estate source. Please bookmark this site for future reference. Regards, Lynette and Friley Lynette Grout and Friley Saucier John R. Wood Inc., REALTORS 26269 S. Tamiami Trail Bonita Springs, FL 34134 Business: (239) 949-7454 Fax: (239) 498-9250 Toll Free: (800) 966-3180 ext 4578 Email: Lynette@NaplesToBonitaHomes.com Email: Friley@NaplesToBonitaHomes.com Real Estate Excellence Referral Network Realtors Bullhead City Real Estate Oak Island . Southport . St. James Real Estate New Homes in Sarasota, Florida Huntsville Alabama Real Estate Cobb County Real Estate Agents Longboat Key Real Estate REALTOR® Partners Tips and information about the Home Buying Process Lee County Guide Some Communities That I Serve Pelican Landing , The Colony Golf & Bay Club , The Colony at Pelican Landing , Bonita Bay , Mediterra , Bay Colony , Pelican Bay Return Home Looking for: Estero Real Estate | Bonita Springs Real Estate Search For Homes: Featured Listings | Search For Homes in Bonita Springs Click here for more links! Oahu Hawaii Real Estate Real Estate Agents & Realtors PostYourProperty.com Hawaii Real Estate Web Site Design and Hosting Provided By: Advanced Access © 1998-2005



real estate prices in

Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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