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* Refinance Purchase Home Debt Consolidation Home Equity Estimated Home Value * $ Select One 75,000 - 80,000 80,001 - 85,000 85,001 - 90,000 90,001 - 95,000 95,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 105,000 105,001 - 110,000 110,001 - 115,000 115,001 - 120,000 120,001 - 125,000 125,001 - 130,000 130,001 - 135,000 135,001 - 140,000 140,001 - 145,000 145,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 155,000 155,001 - 160,000 160,001 - 165,000 165,001 - 170,000 170,001 - 175,000 175,001 - 180,000 180,001 - 185,000 185,001 - 190,000 190,001 - 195,000 195,001 - 200,000 200,001 - 210,000 210,001 - 220,000 220,001 - 230,000 230,001 - 240,000 240,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 260,000 260,001 - 270,000 270,001 - 280,000 280,001 - 290,000 290,001 - 300,000 300,001 - 310,000 310,001 - 320,000 320,001 - 330,000 330,001 - 340,000 340,001 - 350,000 350,001 - 360,000 360,001 - 370,000 370,001 - 380,000 380,001 - 390,000 390,001 - 400,000 400,001 - 420,000 420,001 - 440,000 440,001 - 460,000 460,001 - 480,000 480,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 520,000 520,001 - 540,000 540,001 - 560,000 560,001 - 580,000 580,001 - 600,000 600,001 - 620,000 620,001 - 640,000 640,001 - 660,000 660,001 - 680,000 680,001 - 700,000 700,001 - 720,000 720,001 - 740,000 740,001 - 760,000 760,001 - 780,000 780,001 - 800,000 800,001 - 820,000 820,001 - 840,000 840,001 - 860,000 860,001 - 880,000 880,001 - 900,000 900,001 - 920,000 920,001 - 940,000 940,001 - 960,000 960,001 - 980,000 980,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,000+ 1,500,000+ 2,000,000+ Where is the property located? * Select One Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Iowa Idaho Illinois Indiana Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Mississippi Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Home Description * Single Family Multi Family Town House Condo Tell Us About Your Current Loan Your Mortgage Balance * $ Select One 0 1 - 5,000 5,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 15,000 15,001 - 20,000 20,001 - 25,000 25,001 - 30,000 30,001 - 35,000 35,001 - 40,000 40,001 - 45,000 45,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 55,000 55,001 - 60,000 60,001 - 65,000 65,001 - 70,000 70,001 - 75,000 75,001 - 80,000 80,001 - 85,000 85,001 - 90,000 90,001 - 95,000 95,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 105,000 105,001 - 110,000 110,001 - 115,000 115,001 - 120,000 120,001 - 125,000 125,001 - 130,000 130,001 - 135,000 135,001 - 140,000 140,001 - 145,000 145,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 155,000 155,001 - 160,000 160,001 - 165,000 165,001 - 170,000 170,001 - 175,000 175,001 - 180,000 180,001 - 185,000 185,001 - 190,000 190,001 - 195,000 195,001 - 200,000 200,001 - 210,000 210,001 - 220,000 220,001 - 230,000 230,001 - 240,000 240,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 260,000 260,001 - 270,000 270,001 - 280,000 280,001 - 290,000 290,001 - 300,000 300,001 - 310,000 310,001 - 320,000 320,001 - 330,000 330,001 - 340,000 340,001 - 350,000 350,001 - 360,000 360,001 - 370,000 370,001 - 380,000 380,001 - 390,000 390,001 - 400,000 400,001 - 420,000 420,001 - 440,000 440,001 - 460,000 460,001 - 480,000 480,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 520,000 520,001 - 540,000 540,001 - 560,000 560,001 - 580,000 580,001 - 600,000 600,001 - 620,000 620,001 - 640,000 640,001 - 660,000 660,001 - 680,000 680,001 - 700,000 700,001 - 720,000 720,001 - 740,000 740,001 - 760,000 760,001 - 780,000 780,001 - 800,000 800,001 - 820,000 820,001 - 840,000 840,001 - 860,000 860,001 - 880,000 880,001 - 900,000 900,001 - 920,000 920,001 - 940,000 940,001 - 960,000 960,001 - 980,000 980,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,000+ 1,500,000+ 2,000,000+ Current Interest Rate * Select 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.50 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 10.50 10.75 11+ % Existing Rate Type * Fixed Adjustable Fixed/Adj Do You Have a Second Mortgage Balance? None 5,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 15,000 15,001 - 20,000 20,001 - 25,000 25,001 - 30,000 30,001 - 35,000 35,001 - 40,000 40,001 - 45,000 45,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 55,000 55,001 - 60,000 60,001 - 65,000 65,001 - 70,000 70,001 - 75,000 75,001 - 80,000 80,001 - 85,000 85,001 - 90,000 90,001 - 95,000 95,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 105,000 105,001 - 110,000 110,001 - 115,000 115,001 - 120,000 120,001 - 125,000 125,001 - 130,000 130,001 - 135,000 135,001 - 140,000 140,001 - 145,000 145,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 155,000 155,001 - 160,000 160,001 - 165,000 165,001 - 170,000 170,001 - 175,000 175,001 - 180,000 180,001 - 185,000 185,001 - 190,000 190,001 - 195,000 195,001 - 200,000 200,001 - 210,000 210,001 - 220,000 220,001 - 230,000 230,001 - 240,000 240,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 260,000 260,001 - 270,000 270,001 - 280,000 280,001 - 290,000 290,001 - 300,000 300,001 - 310,000 310,001 - 320,000 320,001 - 330,000 330,001 - 340,000 340,001 - 350,000 350,001 - 360,000 360,001 - 370,000 370,001 - 380,000 380,001 - 390,000 390,001 - 400,000 400,001 - 420,000 420,001 - 440,000 440,001 - 460,000 460,001 - 480,000 480,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 520,000 520,001 - 540,000 540,001 - 560,000 560,001 - 580,000 580,001 - 600,000 600,001 - 620,000 620,001 - 640,000 640,001 - 660,000 660,001 - 680,000 680,001 - 700,000 700,001 - 720,000 720,001 - 740,000 740,001 - 760,000 760,001 - 780,000 780,001 - 800,000 800,001 - 820,000 820,001 - 840,000 840,001 - 860,000 860,001 - 880,000 880,001 - 900,000 900,001 - 920,000 920,001 - 940,000 940,001 - 960,000 960,001 - 980,000 980,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,000+ 1,500,000+ 2,000,000+ How Much Additional Cash do You Wish to Borrow? $ Tell Us About Your Home Purchase Is there a Specific Home You Want to Buy? * Yes No Purpose of Property * Primary Secondary Investment Vacation How Much do You Want to Put Down? * Select One 0 1 - 5,000 5,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 15,000 15,001 - 20,000 20,001 - 25,000 25,001 - 30,000 30,001 - 35,000 35,001 - 40,000 40,001 - 45,000 45,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 55,000 55,001 - 60,000 60,001 - 65,000 65,001 - 70,000 70,001 - 75,000 75,001 - 80,000 80,001 - 85,000 85,001 - 90,000 90,001 - 95,000 95,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 105,000 105,001 - 110,000 110,001 - 115,000 115,001 - 120,000 120,001 - 125,000 125,001 - 130,000 130,001 - 135,000 135,001 - 140,000 140,001 - 145,000 145,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 155,000 155,001 - 160,000 160,001 - 165,000 165,001 - 170,000 170,001 - 175,000 175,001 - 180,000 180,001 - 185,000 185,001 - 190,000 190,001 - 195,000 195,001 - 200,000 200,001 - 210,000 210,001 - 220,000 220,001 - 230,000 230,001 - 240,000 240,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 260,000 260,001 - 270,000 270,001 - 280,000 280,001 - 290,000 290,001 - 300,000 300,001 - 310,000 310,001 - 320,000 320,001 - 330,000 330,001 - 340,000 340,001 - 350,000 350,001 - 360,000 360,001 - 370,000 370,001 - 380,000 380,001 - 390,000 390,001 - 400,000 400,001 - 420,000 420,001 - 440,000 440,001 - 460,000 460,001 - 480,000 480,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 520,000 520,001 - 540,000 540,001 - 560,000 560,001 - 580,000 580,001 - 600,000 600,001 - 620,000 620,001 - 640,000 640,001 - 660,000 660,001 - 680,000 680,001 - 700,000 700,001 - 720,000 720,001 - 740,000 740,001 - 760,000 760,001 - 780,000 780,001 - 800,000 800,001 - 820,000 820,001 - 840,000 840,001 - 860,000 860,001 - 880,000 880,001 - 900,000 900,001 - 920,000 920,001 - 940,000 940,001 - 960,000 960,001 - 980,000 980,001 - 1,000,000 Over 1,000,000 Are you Looking for a Fixed or an Adjustable Loan? * Fixed Adjustable Fixed/Adj Tell Us About Yourself Select Your Credit Profile * Excellent Good Fair Poor Annual Income $ What is Your Occupational Status Employed Self Employed Retired Unemployed Monthly Debt Payments $ Select 0-249 250-499 500-749 750-1,000 Over 1,000 Have You Declared Bankruptcy * No Not in the last 7 years 1-2 years 2-5 years Your Contact Information First Name * Last Name * Email * Street Address * City * State * Select One Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Iowa Idaho Illinois Indiana Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Mississippi Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Zip * Primary Phone * Secondary Phone Best Contact Time * Morning on Primary Morning on Secondary Afternoon on Primary Afternoon on Secondary Evening on Primary Evening on Secondary * REQUIRED FIELDS Service and Data Privacy provided by Secure Rights Note: Secure Rights is responsible for the collection and transfer of information on this page for the purpose of completing your request. By submitting your request you agree to be contacted in accordance with Secure Rights Privacy Policy . View Secure Rights licenses . Paid Advertisement Article Make Dreams a Reality with a Home Mortgage Loan The decision to buy a home is one of the most important commitments you’ll make in your life. If you’re thinking about making the transition from renting to owning, or even buying a new house and selling an old one, many factors come into play. For most Americans looking to buy a house, financial considerations can be daunting. Home mortgage loans are available to most, but deciding which option makes most sense for your personal situation can seem a difficult task, since there are many varieties of home mortgage loans, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, and numerous companies offering advice. Submit the form above to acquire your own home mortgage loan consultant to help you get started with the mortgage process and explain which type of loan is best. Obtaining a Home Mortgage Loan Isn't So Bad When seeking home mortgage loan advice, you should know that there are essentially two types: fixed-rate loans and adjustable-rate loans (ARMs). Fixed-rated loans are very predictable – when the contract is made, the rate of interest to be paid on the loan is calculated and locked in. The interest paid on adjustable-rate loans over the years changes with the interest rate, so when rates are low, you pay less each month, but when rates are high, you will pay more accordingly. Within the two main types, there are variations to suit the specific needs of individuals, which your home mortgage loan company consultant will be happy to discuss with you in greater detail. Your consultant will also explain the fees involved in buying a house, for such necessary tasks as appraisal, closing and settlement. Most home mortgage lenders charge a “loan origination fee,” usually defined as one percent of the amount you’ve borrowed. If you haven’t got the cash to pay these fees up front, they can usually be “rolled” into your loan and paid over time. Buying a house is challenging, but it need not be overwhelming. We’re always on call to help you make the best choices for today, and for the future. Fill out the form on the very top of this page to get the ball rolling. ^ Paid Advertisement Article ^ Ad Information        Forbes.com Wireless        Reprints / Permissions        Subscriber Services        ©2004 Forbes.com™      All Rights Reserved       Privacy Statement        Terms, Conditions and Notice Search Engine Marketing by 360i, Inc.

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Intellectual Property Digital Library Welcome PCT (Patents) PCT Online File Inspection Trademarks Designs Article 6ter Appellations of Origin Resources [ Printable version ] Home > News & Information Resources > Intellectual Property Digital Library Intellectual Property Digital Library Search: Database: **Select** PCT (Patents) Trademarks Designs Article 6ter The Intellectual Property Digital Library Web site provides access to intellectual property data collections hosted by the World Intellectual Property Organization. These collections include PCT (Patents), Madrid (Trademarks), Hague (Industrial Designs), Article 6ter (State Emblems, Official Hallmarks, and Emblems of Intergovernmental Organizations) and others . Access a detailed index of all IPDL data collections . The form above allows you to conduct a simple search for terms occurring within any field of a givendatabase. For a more advanced interface allowing fielded term searches,pleaseselect a database from the left-hand menu. Frequentusers who would like to maintain a search query history across connectionsshould set up a free user account . Registered Users Log in Other Data Collections International Classifications Industrial Property Statistics Collection of Laws (CLEA) New addition PCT Online File Inspection : This service provides access to over one million published PCT international applications and to the latest bibliographic data and documents contained in the files of PCT international applications. Terms of use

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Florida Real Estate Estero,

Estero Florida Real Estate - Bonita Springs Florida Real Estate - Lee County Real Estate Select Page Community Links School Information Apply Online Interest Rates Favorite Links Consumer Links Realty Times News Real Estate News Useful Tools Resource Center REALTOR® Links Link Exchange Email Me Lynette L. Grout, P.A. & Friley Saucier, P.A. Bonita Springs, Florida Real Estate Estero, Florida Real Estate Naples, Florida Real Estate Click a Neighborhood and learn more: Pelican Landing | The Colony Golf & Bay Club | The Colony at Pelican Landing | Bonita Bay Mediterra | Bay Colony | Pelican Bay Southwest Florida Relocation Lynette and Friley have helped many families relocate to the Bonita Springs, Estero and Naples area and they know that there is more to the relocation process than just moving your family's possessions from one home to another. One of the ways Lynette and Friley can help make your move to Bonita Springs, Estero and Naples as smooth as possible is by providing you with free relocation information. You will find everything you need to know about real estate in Bonita Springs, Estero and Naples within one easy source. This comprehensive on-line tool offers direct access to the latest properties for sale featuring extensive community information, consumer links, school information, free reports, answers to commonly asked real estate. Bonita Springs Florida MLS Are you looking to buy the home of your dreams in Bonita Springs, Estero or Naples? With the free MLS (Multiple Listing Service) on-line search you'll be able to access Bonita Springs real estate, Estero real estate and Naples real estate. With the areas largest inventory of listing, you will be able to immediately search for properties and view information about all homes that are currently available and quickly locate homes based on your needs, complete with pictures and descriptions. What is in it for you? If you currently own property in the Bonita Springs real estate, Estero real estate and Naples real estate market and are thinking of selling, this site contains information about preparing your home for sale, selecting the right agent, pricing your home appropriately, marketing it effectively, going through the inspection processes, and receiving a timely market evaluation. Thanks for visiting our on-line real estate source. Please bookmark this site for future reference. Regards, Lynette and Friley Lynette Grout and Friley Saucier John R. Wood Inc., REALTORS 26269 S. Tamiami Trail Bonita Springs, FL 34134 Business: (239) 949-7454 Fax: (239) 498-9250 Toll Free: (800) 966-3180 ext 4578 Email: Lynette@NaplesToBonitaHomes.com Email: Friley@NaplesToBonitaHomes.com Real Estate Excellence Referral Network Realtors Bullhead City Real Estate Oak Island . Southport . St. James Real Estate New Homes in Sarasota, Florida Huntsville Alabama Real Estate Cobb County Real Estate Agents Longboat Key Real Estate REALTOR® Partners Tips and information about the Home Buying Process Lee County Guide Some Communities That I Serve Pelican Landing , The Colony Golf & Bay Club , The Colony at Pelican Landing , Bonita Bay , Mediterra , Bay Colony , Pelican Bay Return Home Looking for: Estero Real Estate | Bonita Springs Real Estate Search For Homes: Featured Listings | Search For Homes in Bonita Springs Click here for more links! Oahu Hawaii Real Estate Real Estate Agents & Realtors PostYourProperty.com Hawaii Real Estate Web Site Design and Hosting Provided By: Advanced Access © 1998-2005

real estate prices in

Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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