Real Estate Prices Still

Agricultural Economist Newsletter: Winter 2001--Farm Real Estate Prices Still Rising in Minnesota Farm Real Estate Prices Still Rising in Minnesota Steven J. Taff Average Minnesota farm real estate sales prices just keep on climbing (figure 1). This despite low output prices, rising input costs, and continued uncertainty about the future of federal subsidies. Sales price increases were seen in all parts of the state except in the northwest. In this annual sales price summary, I can provide only an overview, some cursory analysis, and--as always--a few opinions. I'll not bore you with text that simply repeats what's already shown in the charts. Instead I'll spend some time discussing how land transaction data are recorded, adjusted, and employed. I think it's useful to go through some administrative and procedural details to further our understanding of what these data are and what they are not. If this prospect makes you say, "Just show me the data, Steve," then you can stop right after the sales summary section. Or, if your impatience knows no bounds, go straight to the Minnesota Land Economics (MLE) Web site at http://apec.umn.edu/faculty/sjtaff/landdata/index.html and start working the numbers yourself. Farm Land Sales in 2000 Assessors are required to report initial assessments in late fall, based on sales data to date. That's why the data are reported on a "record year" basis: these are the sales that were, presumably, available for assessor scrutiny at the time the initial estimated market-values are calculated. Final values are set by summer, to be used in the succeeding tax year. So, for example, sales made in late 1999 are used by assessors to set initial values for January 2001. These estimates are adjusted in spring 2001, finalized in summer 2001, and then used for tax purposes in 2002. The adjusted record year 2000 sales data were therefore not available until April of this year. Figure 2 shows the distribution of all farmland sales in 2000. The bulk of the sales lie between $500 and $2,000 per acre. I excluded a small number of sales that exceeded $5,000 per acre as well as those involving parcels of land less than 20 acres in size. Both were excluded as not being plausibly "agricultural"--despite their designation on the Certificate of Real Estate Value (CRV) as "agricultural" land. (Although excluded from figure 2, these data are included in the MLE Web site data.) Even though MAE readers and MLE Web site users can view the full distribution of sales prices, most still ask for a single number that somehow captures the story behind the figures. Obviously, for a set of sales that span such a wide range in prices, any single number fails completely to accomplish this end. Movements in averages, while arithmetically correct, usually fail to tell the entire story. The particular average I use in this article is a location- and size-weighted mean (table 1). In last year's farm real estate report ( agecon.lib.umn.edu/mn/mae699.pdf ), I discussed the usefulness of such weighting as well as the desirability of examining sales data at the smallest geographic scale possible. Table 1. Minnesota farm real estate sales summary Record year Number of sales Acres sold Average price* 1996 2,504 263,728 936 1997 2,641 296,803 1,039 1998 2,724 303,968 1,113 1999 2,212 235,359 1,196 2000 2,258 250,979 1,222 * Location- and size-weighted per-acre mean Figure 1 compares the movements of actual sales price averages with those two other estimates of land value--the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) annual state estimates (based on a farmer opinion survey) and the average assessor estimates (the location- and size-weighted mean estimated market value). The University of Minnesota sales prices averages are location- and size-weighted means. The fact that all three (somewhat) independent estimates of farmland real estate values shown in figure 1 move in lockstep adds credence, I believe, to the conclusion that, on average, farmland values really are increasing in Minnesota. Geographic variations in real estate values for the past 11 years are shown in the box-and-whisker plots of figure 3. (District boundaries are shown in figure 4.) The range of sales prices for each district for each year is shown by the endpoints of the vertical lines. The ends of each box show the prices at which 25 percent of the sales were higher (or lower). The median is indicated by the horizontal bar within each box. So, for example, the median Central district farmland sale was about $1,200 per acre, with 25 percent of the sales lower than $750 and 75 percent lower than $1,850 per acre. In previous years' reports, I've noted the wide variation in average price movements among districts. Such differences were accentuated in 2000 by the continued climb of values in the South East district combined with the continued stagnation in the North West district (figure 5) . Farm Sale Data When a Minnesota property is sold, the transaction details must be recorded at the county courthouse on a form called a CRV. On it, the seller attests that such-and-such a property was sold to so-and-so on a certain date for a specific price. Other information about the property (its size, soil characteristics, prior year's estimated market value) is often entered on the CRV as well. Frequently, the per-acre prices that underlie this article and are also shown in the MLE Web site are not the prices entered on the CRV. Long before a land sales figure enters the official data base, it has been passed through an array of filters and adjustments designed to make comparison among transactions more meaningful and more reliable. Recording the Transactions There are many possible slips between an ownership change and data analysis. Of course, there is always the chance that simple recording errors are made. For example, numbers may be miscopied from bills of sale onto the CRV, or into a computer file, or into a spreadsheet. There is also a chance of misrepresentation. The person who fills in the CRV might have a reason to understate or overstate the actual sales price--perhaps to avoid a tax. This, of course, is illegal, but, as any courthouse veteran can tell you, it occasionally happens. Not every sale receives further processing. Local or state officials remove from subsequent analysis any sale not deemed "arms-length," because it was sold, for example, to a member of the seller's immediate family. Or, a sale might be pulled because the new buyer intends to convert the land to a non-agricultural use. Adjusting the Prices After this filtering, sales prices are frequently adjusted to make comparison among sales more appropriate. First, to expunge the effects of inflation, sales prices are deflated by an officially reported rate to January 2 of the year in which they were recorded. This "adjustment for time" is fairly minor in years (like the past decade) where inflation has been low. The second adjustment is "for terms." Not all farm real estate sales are for the full property. Some are made through a contract for deed, an arrangement that allows the buyer to pay a certain amount now and other amounts at stated intervals. Until the final payment is made, the property remains in the possession of the seller--even though it has been "sold." Because the full payment schedule is entered on the CRV, the Department of Revenue can calculate a present value of the initial and subsequent payments at an official discount rate. This becomes the official sales price of the property, regardless of what the buyer and seller had in mind when they sealed the deal. Adjustments don't end with a time- and terms-adjusted sales price, honestly reported and accurately recorded. In most cases, users of the data are interested in per-acre prices, not per-parcel prices. That means some chosen total price must be divided by some total acreage. But which price? Which acres? Should we use the total price or should we first subtract out the value of buildings, personal property, ancillary property, or machinery to get closer to the "true" land price? In this article (and on the MLE Web site), I choose to follow conventions established years ago in Minnesota. I report the time- and terms-adjusted total sales price, minus the value of personal property, divided by the entire acreage of the parcel. That's why, when I'm being careful, I speak of the average price of farm real estate, not of farm land . Employing the Data The sales reported here are only those recorded between October 1, 1999, and September 30, 2000. These "record year 2000" sales are so bundled because of the way real estate transactions are used to help local assessors value land for property tax purposes. Strange as it may seem, the Department of Revenue does not collect sales data merely to satisfy the data cravings of University economists like me. No, statewide sales data are collected principally to create statistics that are used to "equalize" property tax valuations across county boundaries. Each year, county assessors are required to assign an estimated market value (EMV) to each of the thousands of real estate parcels in the county. The estimate is supposed to be based on an examination of similar properties that were actually sold recently. (The combined valuations for each township, city, or county are the source of the Land Values--in contrast to the Farmland Sales--data on the MLE Web site.) Because every county has its own assessor who uses largely independent valuation procedures, there are inevitably discontinuities across county lines--even for adjacent properties. Farmer Brown wonders why Farmer Olson's land, just across the fence line in the next county, carries an assessed value that is lower by $200 per acre. The state has created an equalization procedure that is supposed to smooth over such discontinuities. Assuming that nearby properties really would sell for similar prices, any observed difference in assessed values for otherwise similar properties is presumed to be evidence that one or both of the assessors is either undervaluing (that is, assigning an EMV that is too low) or overvaluing properties. To test this, the state calculates a sales ratio (the EMV divided by sales price) for every property sold in a particular area. If an assessor systematically undervalues properties (shown by sales ratios that are consistently lower than some threshold), the state might demand the EMVs in that jurisdiction be uniformly raised, to better accord with what is thought to be "true" market conditions. How Accurate Are the EMVs? We can see for ourselves how close the final assessor estimates are by comparing actual sales prices against the previous year's estimated market values for the same property (figure 2). Each point in the figure represents one sale. For example, the rightmost point is for a property that was estimated to have a value of $4,900 per acre, but actually sold for only $2,900 per acre. While some of the estimates are obviously way off (like this example), the bulk are pretty close. In most cases, the EMV was lower than the sale price, but in a neatly predictable manner. A simple one-variable regression model, shown as the straight line in the figure, accounts for nearly 75 percent of the observed variation in farm real estate sales prices. Parting Thoughts What accounts for the ever-onward-and-upward movement of average farm real estate prices in Minnesota? We need only to round up the usual suspects, most of which I have discussed at length in previous issues of MAE . These include 1) perennial farmer optimism about future crop and livestock prices, 2) expected extensions of federal farm subsidy programs, 3) continued favorable local property tax treatment for farmland, 4) the desire of some farmers to increase the size of their current operation by buying adjacent farmland, 5) the desire of some non-farm buyers to use land as a hedge against inflation, and 6) inflation itself. An additional suspect that we need to add is the increasing prominence of location even in rural land markets. We simply can't explain current price levels on the basis of income potential (including subsidies) and speculation potential alone. Clearly, where the land sits with respect to job centers and what it looks like is influencing the price buyers are willing to pay for a particular parcel of land. As always, I caution potential land buyers and sellers about reading too much into the average land prices reported here and elsewhere. If you've got land to sell or if you have a hankering to buy land--look before you leap. The financial stakes are too high for casual empiricism. Hire an appraiser. Talk with your spouse. Check your finances. Think about the children. Be careful out there! Steven J. Taff is an associate professor and extension economist with the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota. Return to Minnesota Ag Economist Newsletter Index Page University of Minnesota Extension Service HomePage

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Air Force Reserve Command Public Access Web Page Home News Releases Resources for Reservists /Employers Subscribe AFRC Units Site map Search AFRC Charleston Reserve unit help set C-17 flying record CHARLESTON AIR FORCE BASE, S.C. (AFPN) -- The largest formation of C-17 Globemaster IIIs from a single base took off this morning from here in a demonstration of the strategic airdrop capability of the Air Force. ( full story ) Air Force Reserve Command Headlines Hurricane hunters close out record season KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE, Miss. -- The "Hurricane Hunters" of Air Force Reserve Command's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flew their last mission of the record 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season in December. Bradley endorses new hearing protection for Reservists WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, OHIO -- Technology developed at the Air Force Research Laboratory here to prevent noise-induced hearing loss will become the preferred solution for Air Force Reserve Command aviators. AF Reserve Command vice commander retires ROBINS AIR FORCE BASE, Ga., -- Maj. Gen. David E. Tanzi, Air Force Reserve Command vice commander, will retire in a ceremony Jan. 11 after 37 years of service. Leadership changes in AFRC, 10th Air Force ROBINS AIR FORCE BASE, Ga. Senior leaders in Air Force Reserve Command and one of its numbered air forces change jobs in late December and early January. Space group to activate new unit SCHRIEVER AIR FORCE BASE, Colo. Air Force Reserve Commands 310th Space Group will travel deeper into the space program when it activates a new unit Jan. 7. Security forces compete for Air Force awards ROBINS AIR FORCE BASE, Ga. Security forces units in Ohio and New Jersey are competing for the title of best Air Force Reserve Command SF unit. In addition, these units have representatives in the hunt for top individual awards in the Air Force. Reservists act as Santa for Veterans Home residents MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL JOINT AIR RESERVE STATION, Minn. (AFPN) -- Santa visited the residents of the Minnesota Veterans Home in Minneapolis Dec. 13, but this time he came in the form of the Air Force Reserve. Hanoi Taxi checks out its new home A C-141 Starlifter aircraft, better known as the Hanoi Taxi, flies over its soon-to-be new home at the National Museum of the U.S. Air Force adjacent to Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, Dec. 13. This particular aircraft gained fame when it was used to return American prisoners of war back home at the end of the Viet Nam War. As the last operational C-141 in Air Force Reserve Command's 445 Airlift Wing, the historic aircraft is scheduled to retire and be dedicated at the museum May 5-6. The Reserve wing started replacing its C-141s with C-5 cargo aircraft in October and plan to have a total of 11 C-5s by April 2007. (Courtesy Photo by John Rossino) Download Full Image New rules to reinforce Guard, Reserve re-employment protections WASHINGTON (AFPN) -- The National Committee for Employer Support of the Guard and Reserve is lauding the Labor Department announcement issuing rules clarifying re-employment rights for citizen-soldiers. They said the Dec. 16 announcement is a major step forward for guardsmen, reservists and their civilian employers. 301st home from Iraq 12/12/2005 - NAJ JRB FORT WORTH, Texas -- Capt. Chris Gough, 457th Fighter Squadron pilot, gathers hugs of love from his family members after their return from Iraq. More than 150 members of the Air Force Reserve Command's 301st Fighter Wing returned Dec. 11 following a two-month deployment Balad AB, Iraq in support of the Air Expeditionary Forces. Other AFRC F-16 units are scheduled to return from Balad in January. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Julie Briden-Garcia) ( hi-resolution image ) Red, White and Air Force Blue Christmas Lee Ann Womack helps ring in the holidays with a special tribute for Air Force members. Click here to go to Air Force Link and click on the Air Force Holiday Music tab to listen in to this holiday special. Reservists can manage career info online DENVER (AFPN) -- Air Force reservists can now go online to create an account on the Reserve Personnel Centers Virtual Personnel Center-Guard Reserve portal. Reserve Personnel Center automates 20-year and mortgage letters DENVER (AFPN) -- The Air Reserve Personnel Center set another transformation milestone with the self-service automation of the reissue of 20-year and mortgage letters. Delivering the 'J' Lt. Gen. John A. Bradley, commander of Air Force Reserve Command, sits in in the cockpit before takeoff in a new C-130J Hercules Monday from the Lockheed-Martin facility in Marietta, Ga. General Bradley helped ferry the Herc from Marietta to the 403rd Wing at Keesler Air Force Base, Miss. The flight took about one hour. ( hi-resolution ) Trick Pony brings season's greetings to troops Trick Pony, Country Music Award winners, join up with Blues Traveler's John Popper to hitch a ride and entertain U.S. troops in Germany, Turkey, a forward-operating base in Southwest Asia, and a final stop at Keflivik, Iceland. From left, Ira Dean, Heidi Newfield, John Popper and Keith Burns bring it all together to tell the troops thanks. (U.S. Air Force photo by Ken Hackman) ( More photos and story ) Air Force Reserve fighters destroy terrorist hideout SOUTHWEST ASIA Air Force Reserve Command F-16 pilots bombed a booby-trapped house near Al Mahmudiyah, Iraq, Nov. 23. Reservist giving warfighters gifts they can use INCIRLIK AIR BASE, Turkey (AFPN) -- Giving and receiving are the hallmarks of the holiday season. If you don't believe it, ask the aerial porters here who receive an average of 600,000 pounds of cargo every day and give the warfighters in Iraq "gifts" they can use. Ramstein Reservist helps injured troops get home RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany (AFPN) -- "Home for the holidays" is a familiar goal for many military people, but not Tech. Sgt. Katheryn Bicker. This Reservist from the 944th Fighter Wing at Luke AFB, Ariz., is forgoing her own holidays to help others in what she feels is the true spirit of the season. Late bloomer goes to other lands to help people WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Ohio A flight nurse in the 445th Aeromedical Evacuation Squadron here is a classic example of a late bloomer. 9 one-stars, 15 colonels get promotion nod WASHINGTON Nine brigadier generals and 15 colonels in the Air Force Reserve were nominated by the president Nov. 22 for promotion to the next higher rank. US builds bonds during the 2005 Dubai air show DUBAI, United Arab Emirates Usually when one thinks of the United States displaying air power in the Middle East, the promotion of economic growth and good will does not come to mind, but that is exactly why the U.S. Air Force and Navy are on hand during the Dubai 2005 Air Show. Reservist medical-dental records easier to get DENVER (AFPN) -- The Air Reserve Personnel Center will move the medical and dental records of some reservists to the active-duty base where they serve as part of a test to streamline operations. Reserve F-16s strike insurgents in Iraq SOUTHWEST ASIA -- Air Force Reserve Command F-16s along with Air Force F-15s and Predators flew air strikes against insurgents near the Iraqi-Syria border Nov. 14 in support of Operation Steel Curtain. ( full story ) Reserve F-16s patrol over Iraq FORT WORTH, Texas -- Air Force Reserve Command F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters are providing combat air support for U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. Hundreds of aircrews and support people from four fighter wings began flying close-air-support and combat air patrol missions in September on a rotational basis. The last contingent of reservists from the 10th Air Force units returns home in January. Holiday season message highlights importance of life WASHINGTON As the holiday season and another year approach, let us take time to consider what is really important family and friends. Home Please read this privacy and security notice AFRC Units Resources for Reservist Pubs and Forms News Releases Search AFRC Contact Public Affairs FOIA Site map AFRC Site Accessibility Page last updated on December 29, 2005 Hot Job opportunities V olunteer R eserve S ystem Job vacancies Active Guard and Reserve Air Reserve Technician Civil Service positions Join the Air Force Reserve News and Information News Release s Citizen Airman Magazine Handbook for Congress AFRC Facts and Figures AFRC Fact Sheets AFRC Leadership Bios AFRC Mission Briefing Air Force Link AF TV News AF Radio News Airman Magazine Army News Service Defense Link Early Bird Anthrax Brief Parent Pin Program Freedom of Information AFRC Units/Directorates AFRC Wings/Groups AF Reserve Band Command Chaplain Logistics (Contracting) Resources for Reservists FAQs about active duty Guard Reserve Portal USERRA Advisor Military Health System Family Readiness Reserve Advisory Board Pay Matters Air Force Crossroads Resources for Employers Employer Support of the Guard and Reserve (ESGR) Info for Employers Info for Military Info for Volunteers Get the facts: Read the latest edition of Air Force Reserve Handbook for Congress