Real Estate Prices

CNN/Money: The hottest zip codes Web CNN/Money Buying & Selling Investment Property Home Improvement Million $ Life Financing Best Places This year's hottest zip codes By Sarah Max, CNN/Money senior staff writer PLUS: • What makes a zip code HOT? • Homes in hot zip codes • Ultimate home guide 2005 SALEM, Ore. (CNN/Money) - Whether home prices will rise or fall in the coming year is anyone's guess. The housing market continues to stump experts on both sides of the bubble debate. Even so, economists at Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss think they have a pretty good idea what's in the cards for most metros in 2005. Their prediction: Los Angeles will fizzle. Miami will sizzle. There's some reason to believe them. Fiserv CSW has been forecasting annual home-price growth at the metro level for more than a decade, with a not-too-shabby record: the group's median forecast error is less than 2 percent. To track housing performance, the researchers look at repeat sales data for a sample of houses in each zip code, a method they consider more accurate than simply looking at changes in an area's median home price. They also consider past price changes, employment trends and interest-rate trends to devise a forecast for the coming year. Finally, they make adjustments to individual areas to account for other factors that could influence an area's housing market. What's up in L.A.? Over the past five years home prices in the Los Angeles area appreciated 125 percent, with prices in a handful of zip codes up nearly 200 percent. But Fiserv CSW is predicting that prices in the greater Los Angeles area will increase by only 5.8 percent in 2005, with slightly better appreciation in some L.A. markets and price declines in others. "There is anecdotal evidence that the market there is weakening," said David Stiff, a senior economist with Case Shiller Weiss. "It hasn't worked its way into our model yet." For that reason, the firm declined to give a forecast for individual zip codes in Los Angeles. "We are very uncertain about what will happen to home prices in Los Angeles this year," Stiff added. Miami's market, however, may still have room to grow. Home prices in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro have doubled over the last five years, and Fiserv CSW is forecasting that they will appreciate another 16.4 percent this year. "Unlike L.A., Miami has a higher ceiling [for price appreciation] because affordability is less of an issue," said Stiff. What's the forecast for your hood? For each of the 10 largest metro regions tracked by Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss, here are the 10 zip codes with the largest median five-year price increases -- and their prospects for the coming year. Data on five-year price change are through the fourth quarter of 2004, while the forecasted change is for the first quarter of 2005 through the first quarter of 2006. Click on column headings to re-sort » Metro Area Median price 5-Yr Price Change 1 Forecasted change 2 Boston 338,000 73.60% 8.00% Lawrence MA 01841 226,000 121.10% 9.90% New Bedford MA 02744 207,000 120.50% 9.60% New Bedford MA 02740 225,000 118.10% 9.80% Worcester MA 01610 193,000 116.30% 16.20% Fairhaven MA 02719 254,000 113.50% 9.80% New Bedford MA 02745 245,000 112.30% 11.10% Wareham MA 02571 260,500 111.50% 8.20% Manchester NH 03102 242,000 111.10% 10.80% North Dartmouth MA 02747 324,500 110.90% 10.90% Mattapoisett MA 02739 353,500 110.70% 9.80% Chicago 254,000 49.60% 8.30% Chicago IL 60632 205,000 91.20% 13.80% Chicago IL 60638 237,000 90.90% 15.30% Chicago IL 60629 195,000 89.90% 16.70% Chicago IL 60652 180,000 84.60% 16.00% Chicago IL 60639 265,000 84.10% 11.20% Chicago IL 60630 318,000 83.30% 12.20% Chicago IL 60634 300,000 83.20% 12.50% Chicago IL 60640 511,000 82.20% 12.50% Oak Park IL 60302 450,000 80.50% 8.80% Chicago IL 60641 320,000 79.80% 11.10% Detroit 156,000 23.50% 4.50% Inkster MI 48141 85,000 39.80% 3.80% Pontiac MI 48342 75,000 37.90% 3.30% Mount Clemens MI 48043 136,000 35.90% NA Romulus MI 48174 145,000 35.80% 3.40% Dearborn Heights MI 48125 110,000 35.60% 3.40% Center Line MI 48015 125,000 35.60% 5.50% Ann Arbor MI 48103 263,000 35.50% 2.90% Detroit MI 48223 75,000 35.30% 2.00% Ann Arbor MI 48104 314,000 35.00% 1.30% Detroit MI 48235 97,000 34.30% 2.00% Los Angeles 418,000 125.70% 5.80% Rialto CA 92376 270,000 191.90% NA Littlerock CA 93543 230,000 185.80% NA Fontana CA 92335 272,000 184.70% NA Mira Loma CA 91752 449,000 182.50% NA Burbank CA 91502 677,500 180.50% NA Glendale CA 91203 538,000 180.40% NA Inglewood CA 90305 425,000 176.60% NA Santa Ana CA 92707 475,000 176.10% NA Riverside CA 92509 325,000 174.70% NA Inglewood CA 90303 390,000 173.80% NA Miami 246,000 106.00% 16.40% Miami FL 33137 265,000 171.30% NA Miami FL 33138 360,000 161.40% NA Miami FL 33150 142,000 147.80% 21.80% Fort Lauderdale FL 33311 175,000 134.50% 19.90% Pompano Beach FL 33062 355,000 133.00% 20.00% Deerfield Beach FL 33441 253,000 130.70% 17.10% Fort Lauderdale FL 33314 175,000 128.40% 22.80% Hollywood FL 33020 204,000 128.30% NA Pompano Beach FL 33064 171,000 126.90% 21.50% Miami FL 33179 169,000 125.50% 18.20% New York 360,000 87.50% 11.90% Beach Haven NJ 08008 687,500 146.00% 14.30% Tuckerton NJ 08087 216,000 134.50% 13.70% Mastic Beach NY 11951 228,000 130.20% NA Manorville NY 11949 392,000 128.80% 16.30% Brielle NJ 08730 519,000 127.70% 11.70% Bellport NY 11713 158,000 127.50% NA Mastic NY 11950 239,500 127.20% 17.10% Lavallette NJ 08735 557,500 127.00% 12.90% Perth Amboy NJ 08861 260,000 126.90% 13.00% Waretown NJ 08758 350,000 125.60% 15.50% Philadelphia 199,000 71.00% 11.40% Brigantine NJ 08203 358,500 149.50% 15.40% Sea Isle City NJ 08243 699,000 136.50% 20.10% Ocean City NJ 08226 650,000 133.80% 18.50% Ventnor City NJ 08406 285,000 132.20% 18.50% Villas NJ 08251 167,500 124.40% 20.60% Margate City NJ 08402 549,000 122.70% 17.10% Ocean View NJ 08230 325,000 118.50% 15.30% Northfield NJ 08225 207,500 117.30% 15.60% Marmora NJ 08223 265,000 116.50% 16.00% Somers Point NJ 08244 225,500 111.50% 16.00% San Francisco 576,000 82.00% 14.40% Vallejo CA 94590 361,000 149.00% 16.90% Oakland CA 94621 310,000 144.20% 15.00% Dixon CA 95620 448,000 140.70% 16.10% Fairfield CA 94533 367,000 137.00% 18.00% Vallejo CA 94589 370,000 135.70% 17.80% Oakland CA 94603 326,500 135.70% 15.30% Suisun City CA 94585 380,000 131.50% 17.20% Oakley CA 94561 400,500 130.20% 21.40% Pittsburg CA 94565 389,000 129.90% 20.10% Vacaville CA 95687 391,500 129.70% 14.80% Seattle 289,000 38.50% 10.10% Seattle WA 98126 294,000 57.80% 10.30% Seattle WA 98106 233,000 53.40% 12.30% Seattle WA 98109 556,000 53.00% 11.40% Seattle WA 98107 362,000 52.50% 9.50% Seattle WA 98117 380,000 52.40% 8.40% Seattle WA 98103 399,000 52.30% 8.90% Seattle WA 98199 510,000 51.10% 8.20% Seattle WA 98116 389,000 51.10% 8.10% Seattle WA 98105 441,000 50.60% 6.90% Seattle WA 98168 229,000 48.80% 9.00% Washington, D.C. 335,000 99.00% 14.90% Gaithersburg MD 20877 329,000 127.40% 14.30% Germantown MD 20874 291,000 117.80% 16.00% Silver Spring MD 20903 340,000 116.90% 12.40% Gaithersburg MD 20879 309,000 115.90% 13.70% Rockville MD 20851 320,000 112.50% 9.30% Silver Spring MD 20910 450,000 112.00% 8.70% Gaithersburg MD 20878 485,500 112.00% 10.60% Rockville MD 20853 400,000 111.10% 12.30% Rockville MD 20850 523,000 109.80% 9.30% Silver Spring MD 20901 365,000 109.60% 12.50% Notes: 1 Q4 1999 through Q4 2004 2 Q1 2005 through Q1 2006 Source: Fiserv CSW «top» The Hot List Most profitable renovations How risky is your 401(k)? 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Find a Property - Properties for sale & rent from estate agents Find a Property - Home Property Search Estate Agents Property News Specialist Properties Browse All Areas Find your ideal house, flat or apartment for sale or rent Find a Property - Moving made easy Search 171,640 houses, flats and apartments for sale and rent through 3,617 estate agents. Area Guide Search for properties by area, with price guides, maps and local information Find a Property has 171,640 properties for sale and to rent throughout the UK and overseas. Review our estate agent list or start searching properties by location now... Property Prices How much is your house or flat worth? Review recent property price trends... Search all Editions 6,711 new properties for sale and to rent in the last 7 days Search for properties in... London (North of Thames) London (South of Thames) Surrey & Middlesex Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire & Essex Hampshire, Sussex & Kent Rest of UK Rest of Europe Rest of World Virtual Tours Get a 'real' feel for a property with a 'virtual' tour... Estate Agents Review a full list of letting and estate agents advertising on Find a Property Sector Inspector We talk to estate agents who focus on a particular corner of the property market... Specialist Properties Commercial property, new homes, investment properties and more... Dream Houses Forget the house price review the properties of your dreams... Premier Property The finest properties in some of England's prime residential locations New Homes for Sale New homes for sale and new build property developments Short Lets Properties available for short or holiday let and serviced apartments Commercial Commercial property from office and retail space to industrial sites Waterside Property River views, house boats, canal apartments... Investment Properties Buy to let, property development and investment opportunities Property Auctions A selection of properties for sale by auction Contemporary Properties Loft apartments, warehouse conversions and other contemporary property Property features Animal House (29 Dec 2006) Finding the perfect rented home can be difficult at the best of times; but for pet-owners especially, house-hunting can be an uphill struggle... more Oxford's Eco Home (16 Dec 2005) In 1997, George Marshall bought a rundown 1930s terraced house on an Oxford council estate. Then he did something rather unusual with it... more The Truth About ... Ex-Council Properties (15 Dec 2005) They're still within reach for hard-pressed first-time buyers and a tempting prospect for canny buy-to-let investors. But are ex-local authority properties really a safe bet? ... more Christmas: Far Away But At Home (09 Dec 2005) What could be more Christmassy than a holiday season in an exotic winter location - think hats and scarves and New York in the snow; or a barbecued turkey with all the trimmings, cooked on sizzling Bondi Beach... more Headlines Scotland's Year, Says Halifax 29 Dec 2005 It was a good year for Scottish house prices: nearly half of the top twenty increases were recorded by towns north of the border... more Huge Annual Increase In Mortgage Lending 23 Dec 2005 Gross mortgage lending in November was a whopping 30 per cent higher than the same month last year, says the CML... more NAEA: Christmas Cooldown In November 22 Dec 2005 The seasonal Christmas slowdown was evident in November, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Estate Agents... more Flat Year Ahead For House Prices 21 Dec 2005 A broadly flat market is what we can expect next year, according to a report from HBOS... more More news... Local Links A list of local guides, resources and directories Word on the Street This week's area info posted by local residents Top Top Find a Property - Home Property Search Estate Agents Property News Specialist Properties Browse All Areas Find a Property 2004 Advertise (estate agents only) Contact us (estate agents only) About us Privacy Policy Terms & Conditions

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Towards Liberty International Society for Individual Liberty > Don't Get Stuck Paying "Zombie" Debt – Towards Liberty – A commentary on current events by Jarret Wollstein The Coming Real Estate Collapse – 05-24-05 – As real estate prices in much of the U.S. continues to soar, evidence is growing that both commercial and residential real estate is greatly over-priced in many of the country's hottest markets – including New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., Miami, and much of California. One clear indication that real estate is overpriced is that rents are now a fraction of mortgage payments, and are continuing to fall in terms of real dollars. For instance, Forbes reports that cash return on income-producing real estate has fallen from 9% a few years ago, to just 5% to 7% now, and is likely to go lower. You can clearly see why rents are falling in overheated markets like California's Silicon Valley. In the San Francisco-San Jos corridor, there is currently over 33 million square feet of un-rented (and in many cases never occupied) commercial space. Last year, just 65 thousand square feet of this enormous inventory was rented. At that rate, it will take over 507 years to rent all unoccupied commercial real estate in Silicon Valley. Since most investors can't wait over half a millennium for returns on their capital, what's more likely is that commercial real estate prices in this "hot market" will soon fall like a rock. Another indication that real estate is poised for a fall, that fewer and fewer people can afford today's astronomically-priced houses. For instance, in California – where ordinary 2,000 square foot, 3-bedroom homes are going for $500,000 to $2,000,000+ – less than one family in six now qualifies to repurchase their own house. Another indications that real estate is ready for a fall: Of 362 U.S. metropolitan areas, about 15% are experiencing a housing "boom" – a three-year, inflation adjusted price gain of 30% or more – according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That's the highest number of boom markets ever recorded in the 30 years that they have been tracked. In Americas hottest real estate markets – including the big cities in New York, Florida and California – housing prices went up by 15% to 35% in the past year alone. This is clearly unsustainable. No matter how low interest rates are and no matter how many schemes George Bush comes up with for an "ownership society," it's clear that we are rapidly reaching the point when hardly anyone can afford to buy a new house in a hot real estate market, without putting their financial future in jeopardy. So what's propping up the real estate bubble, and causing housing prices to go ever-higher, even as rents fall and commercial landlords face enormous vacancy rates? Besides artificially low interest rates, the answer, in a word, is speculation. Up to one residence in three in California is now purchased not to live in, but for resale, according to the San Francisco Chronicle . The comparable figure may be as high as one property in two in the Las Vegas area. In downtown Miami, 80% of approximately 35,000 new condos now under construction or just completed, are owned by investors – not people who actually plan on living in them – according to MoneyNews.com. Call it the triumph of delusion over reality. I can't tell you how many people have told me that real estate price "can't fall, because if they did, they would be bankrupt." In other words, because they want prices to stay up, they must stay up. If you believe that, there is a nice three-bedroom fixer-upper on a dirt lot, and on the edge of an eroding cliff, in Pacifica, California, I'd like to sell you for just $2.5 million. Buy this bargain now, before the price really goes up! (This is a real example.) In the current frenzied real market, self-delusion is rampant. In Florida's red-hot real estate market, one Miami realtor recently told the New York Times , "South Florida is working off a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past." That's precisely what executives of dot coms told investors to justify their astronomical stock prices, just before the collapse – which triggered the destruction of over $3 trillion in stock value. Unfortunately, for many overextended home owners, property prices aren't immune to the laws of economics. Property prices can and do fall in America, as witnessed by the bear markets of 1974-75, 1980-82 and 1990-92. A personal example: One Northern California home owner I know bought his 2,000 sq. ft. house for $750,000 in 1989. In 1992, he was couldn't get $450,000 for his property, and was forced to declare bankruptcy after he lost his job. Millions of overextended American families with "interest only" and adjustable rate mortgages will likely find themselves in the same boat, when mortgage interest rates edge up above 7% or 8% – which is likely by the end of this year. (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that we can expect at least a 2.25% increase in interest rates in 2005, on top of the 2% increase in 2004.) The brutal financial reality is that a mere 2% rise in mortgage rates, can increase ARM payments by as much as 40% – an unsustainable burden for families living on the edge. One way or another, at best , the U.S. real estate bubble has 1 to 2 more years to run before it collapses. If you or your children are among those living in overpriced homes you can barely afford, NOW is the time to sell, when the market is at or near its peak, and before prices drop by 30% or more – and they find themselves living in a Motel 6 or in your basement. To minimize taxes on the profits, reinvest in a home in a small town or rural area where prices arent so absurd, and bank the rest. Please stay in touch! Add yourself to our e-mail list. Two times per month we send an update on the activities of our members and new features at ISIL.org. Simply enter your e-mail address here and click the button. You can easily remove yourself (unsubscribe) at any time. E-mail us at isil@isil.org if you have any personal questions or comments. E-mail address: Subscribe Unsubscribe