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Home price increases may have flattened - Nov. 15, 2005 Web CNN/Money Home News Markets Technology Commentary Personal Finance Autos Real Estate Real Estate Buying & Selling SAVE | EMAIL | PRINT | SUBSCRIBE TO MONEY | Outlook sours for real estate Many indicators point to a major slowdown in home prices. November 15, 2005: 5:47 PM EST By Les Christie, CNN/Money staff writer Most overvalued markets The real estate markets most vulnerable in a housing bust Metro market Median home price Percent overvalued Naples, FL $489,875 79.35% Santa Barbara, CA $609,999 73.69% Merced, CA $256,348 71.71% Salinas, CA $539,273 70.49% Stockton, CA $307,849 68.66% Medford, OR $246,245 64.78% Port St. Lucie, FL $210,727 64.17% Riverside, CA $291,170 62.92% Modesto, CA $287,030 62.77% Madera, CA $256,417 60.39% Source:National City NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Did homeowners who sold in September get out just in time? The latest report on third-quarter home prices, released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors, showed continued strength. But increasingly there are signs that prices have plateaued. Of 147 markets tracked , 69 had gains from a year ago of more than 10 percent -- only six metro areas experienced declines. But from the second quarter to the third quarter, the national median home price rose to $215,900, up just 3.8 percent. That contrasts with a 10.4 percent jump in the prior quarter. And more and more leading indicators are pointing to a slowdown. In Boston, real-estate investor Matthew Martinez reports recently having spoken to five condo converters. "They all said the party was over," Martinez said. In Florida, Elena Filipa, vice president of the Corcoron Group in West Palm, said "We've leveled off. I would say prices will go up this year, but not as fast as they have." None of this surprises the many economists who have been waiting for a downturn. Richard DeKaser, chief economist for mortgage banker National City, has been reluctant to call the top, but thinks it has finally passed. "We're coming down the other side of the mountain," said DeKaser. The signs include: Builder pessimism The builders DeKaser surveys are less optimistic than they were even a few months ago. Separately, one leading builder, Pennsylvania-based Toll Brothers, announced last week that expected demand for 2006 would be down, resulting in moderating price increases and fewer sales. New-home sales declining DeKaser also notes that the number of new homes sold have fallen sharply since peaking in July at an annual rate of 1.3 million units. DeKaser calls new-home sales (rather than existing-home sales) the canary in the coal mine. "Developers tend to be more sensitive to market conditions," he said. They have cash flow issues, payrolls, and loans that put more pressure on them to sell. Ordinary home sellers are often more selective than developers, even taking properties off the market if they don't get the price they want. Developers have to drop prices to move inventory. Inventories rising Supplies of new homes are way up, to nearly 500,000 units, from 350,000 a few months ago. "That's an all-time high for new homes," says DeKaser. The higher the inventory, the more likely prices will fall. Sell times are up Houses are sitting on the market longer. New homes now take about 4.1 months to sell and existing homes 4.7; both figures are up substantially. What to expect In a recent survey, NAR members say they predict home prices to rise only 5 percent in the next 12 months. Nearly half of the realtors predict prices will rise less than five percent and 6.4 percent actually expect prices to fall. "You can't expect double-digit price increases to go on forever," said Walter Molony, spokesman for NAR. "We're seeing a market in transition in which there'll be an easing of price increases in the future." While DeKaser expects a slowdown, he predicts an "orderly transition" for the most part, with some exceptions. "There will be busts in some markets," he said. "Mostly, we'll come out of it unscathed." For the most part, DeKaser doesn't envision losses on that scale. He thinks home prices will decline 1.7 percent during the fourth quarter of 2005 and stay almost flat all the way through 2007. But history shows that some over-valued markets could fare much worse. Molony points out that the most severe drops in real-estate prices are usually triggered by an underlying economic crisis. After oil prices went into a six-year decline in the late 1970s, housing prices in oil cities experienced steep drops. In Oklahoma City, prices plummeted 26 percent in real dollars from 1983 to 1988. With inflation, the "real" loss was more than 40 percent. Houses in many oil patch cities are worth less in real dollars than they cost more than 20 years ago. How to protect yourself It may already be too late to cash out at the top, which some residents of hot markets have already done. About 500,000 California residents moved out of state since 2001, according to economy.com, many to take advantage of lower housing prices elsewhere. But houses are not really investments in the same way stocks or bonds are. As an investment, timing the market is touchy -- miscalculate and it can cost you. If, for example, you cashed out a year ago in Los Angeles, expecting to buy back in at a lower price, you'd have to spend nearly 23 percent more for a similar house this year. Add closing and moving costs and commissions and it could cost 30 percent more to get back into the market. Cashing out just doesn't make sense except for retirees or others in a position to relocate or downsize. People looking to buy right now should shop carefully. Look at a number of homes, try not to fall in love, and be realistic about prices. Don't be afraid to bid low. The days of multiple bids may be over for a while. With interest rates rising, try to get into a fixed-rate loan. Adjustable rate loans could adjust to a much higher level when they come due, making monthly bills much costlier. ARMs rates are so close to fixed at this point, it costs little extra to forego the risk of higher rates in the future. ________________________________________________________ Latest prices for 147 markets. Housing affordability is at a low point. For more, click here . Just as the good times may be ending, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is beginning to offer futures trading in home prices. For more click here . For more articles on Real Estate, subscribe to MONEY Magazine . The Hot List Most profitable renovations How risky is your 401(k)? Big new tax credits for hybrid cars More Buying & Selling Least affordable rental markets Take this home market...and love it Double jeopardy for landlords contact us | magazine customer service | site map | glossary | RSS | press room OTHER NEWS: CNN | SI | Fortune | Business2.0 = Money subscribers = Premium content -- * - Time reflects local markets trading time. † - Intraday data is at least 15-minutes delayed. Disclaimer © 2005 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. A Time Warner Company ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms under which this service is provided to you. privacy policy Reprints of site stories are available. Top Stories Most overvalued housing markets Risks to the economy in 2006 Which was the worst ad of all in 2005? After the ride, a rest Hilton brands reunite after 40 years YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS Follow the news that matters to you. Create your own alert to be notified on topics you're interested in. Or, visit Popular Alerts for suggestions. Manage alerts | What is this?

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LandAndFarm.com - Land for sale, Farms for sale, Rural Property for sale Advertise here Search Properties Wanted Auctions Newsletter Quick Start Register About My Properties Number of visitors online now: 231 Thursday, December 29, 2005 Ad Prices Help Contact Login Subscribe to Rural Property Bulletin Last Few Listings Most Viewed Least Viewed Recently Updated Search by USA Map Rural Property Sites Tool Box Get new properties in your email box! 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Brand new cabin on over 6 acres with a stream and stateland across the road on 2 sides. New septic, new well and electric. Wrap around porch and no ne ...(Click here to learn more) This property is for sale. Location: Chenango , New York [Email this listing to someone] 12/29/2005 3:37:29 PM Web LandAndFarm.com Search eBay Land Listings! Quick Search Search Properties/ Advanced Search Recent searches: 3 properties - 38 seconds ago 20 properties - 1 minute ago 9 properties - 1 minute ago 16 properties - 1 minute ago Click a Pro! Visit the following real estate pros for the best properties from around the world! Debra Dodd, TENNESSEE Craig McKenzie, South Africa (Singell) Countrytyme, OHIO (Kimmel) Countrytyme ALC LTD, OHIO Virginia R. Reid, MAINE Melinda Barrington, TENNESSEE David A. 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Home Equity Loan | Home Equity Line of Credit -- BUY A HOME SELL A HOME HOME LOANS NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION ABOUT US MY ACCOUNT Find a REALTOR ® Buy or sell your home and you may receive a Gift Card worth up to $1,000. Find a REALTOR ® Find a Builder with iNest and Get 1% Cash Back! Finance Your Home Get a Mortgage Refinance Your Mortgage Home Equity Loan / Line of Credit Online Credit Report Search Homes for Sale Start Your Search Home Price Check ® Additional Services Insurance Quotes Get a Home Warranty Get a Home Inspection Find a Mover Find Home Improvement Professionals Change Your Address Setup Your Utilities Learning Center Qualifying for Home Loan How Much Can You Afford? How To Choose the Right Loan You are here: Home | Home Finance | Home Equity Loan Center Home Equity Loan Center Get up to 4 lenders competing for your home equity loan. When Banks Compete, You Win ® ! 3 Great Reasons to Use Your Home's Equity 1. Home Improvements Why wait to make needed home improvements. Redo your bathroom or kitchen now. 2. Major Purchases Thinking about buying a car or boat? Take advantage of low home equity rates now. 3. Dream Vacation The weather is getting warm. If you want to get away think about using a home equity line of credit. Login and View Your Offers Email: Password: Forgot Your Password? Know Your Credit Score. Make Smarter Decisions. Credit Reports TM , Score Power ® and Score Watch TM give you the tools you need to understand, manage and use your credit wisely. Need Help Before Getting Started? How large a line of credit can you obtain? Before You Remodel Your Home Should you consolidate debts? Home equity loan or an auto loan? Home Improvement What is a Credit Score? Furnishing on a Budget How to Find an Architect Buying a Home | Selling a Home | Homes for Sale | Credit Report & Score | House Prices at Domania New Home Construction | Find a Mover | Find a REALTOR ® | Home Financing | Real Estate Learning Center Customer Service | Publications | For the Media | News Releases | Join Our Real Estate Network | Post Home Listings Privacy | Security | Terms of Use | Jobs | Disclosures and Licenses | Sitemap | Loans | Commercial Real Estate Houses for Sale in: Atlanta | Austin | Boston | Charlotte | Chicago | Dallas | Denver | Houston | Las Vegas | Los Angeles Miami | Minneapolis | New York | Philadelphia | Phoenix | San Antonio | San Diego | San Francisco | Seattle Washington, DC | Real Estate in More Cities LendingTree technology and processes are patented under US Patent Nos. 6,385,594 and 6,611,816. © 1998 - Real Estate.com, a service of LendingTree, LLC. All Rights Reserved.This site is directed at, and made available to, persons in the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii only. Conversion to LendingTree, LLC We are pledged to the letter and spirit of U.S. policy for the achievement of equal housing opportunity throughout the Nation. We encourage and support an affirmative advertising and marketing program in which there are no barriers to obtaining housing because of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, or national origin. REALTOR ® -- A registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS ® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Not all of the real estate professionals participating in the "Agent's Competing" program are REALTORS ® , which are members of the National Association of REALTORS ® . The Home Depot ® is not affiliated with LendingTree, LLC. The Home Depot ® is a registered trademark of Homer TLC, Inc. RealEstate.com is not sponsored by or affiliated with the parent franchisor companies of any of the participating members of its network. Partner Sites: Citysearch | Expedia | Hotels.com | Ticketmaster.com | Hotwire.com | Entertainment.com | Match.com Home Shopping Network | ReserveAmerica | LendingTree.com | iNest | ServiceMagic | Ask Jeeves | Gift Ideas Mortgage Calculator | Refinance at GetSmart | LendingTree Mortgage | Free Online Credit Report | Home Equity Loans