Real Estate Prices ---

Google Answers: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators Log in | Google Answers Home View Question Ask a Question Q: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators ( Answered , 5 Comments ) Question Subject: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators Category: Family and Home > Home Asked by: nronronronro-ga List Price: $25.00 Posted: 19 Apr 2005 15:33 PDT Expires: 19 May 2005 15:33 PDT Question ID: 511542 Hi There!I was goofing off today, and started looking throughwww.craigslist.com for real estate. I looked at 11 different citiesfrom San Francisco to Phoenix to Washington, D.C.Mini-Eureka moment! I noticed the number of lease-options availablehas increased significantly in each and every city. 11 of 11 towns! The last time I checked www.craigslist.com was 5 months ago.This observation sparked my rusty brain cells. There must be leadingindicators for real estate, in the same way there are leadingindicators for stocks. Here's a list of possible danger signals forreal estate off the "top of my head":1. Increasing lease-options2. Increasing number of days on the market3. Increasing number of unsold homes in a city4. Decreasing ratio of Asking Price/Transaction Price5. Increasing number of homes on the market more than 120 days6. Decreasing number of mortgage applications7. Increasing number of newspaper classified ads for real estateI'm not a real estate guy. But I'm sure some brilliant professor hasdevised a computer model to predict when real estate prices willdecline 6-12 months hence.A 5-star answer would be 5-10 additional leading indicators for realestate. No background material needed. (However, if you happen tofind an objective study on leading indicators then I would love totake a look at that, too.)All comments greatly appreciated!Thanks.ronP.S. Please note that indicators like "Forecasted Job Growth" or"Forecasted Property Tax Receipts" won't help much, precisely becausethey are forecasts and not hard data. The best indicators wouldinvolve hard numbers that can be observed right now, and used to makecomparisons.EXAMPLES:1. Days on the market for San Francisco versus days on the market for Phoenix.2. Days on the market for San Francisco in April 2005 versus days onthe market in San Francisco in January 2002.(This question doesn't involve specific numbers or specific cities. Rather, it involves the kind of indicators one might observe. Thx.) Answer Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators Answered By: easterangel-ga on 19 Apr 2005 16:59 PDT Rated: Hi! Thanks for the question.The National Association of Realtors provides a list of real estateindicators that one can analyze to indicate some trends. Here are someof the indicators that they follow:- Existing Home Sales- Pending Home Sales Index- New Home Sales- Housing Starts- Housing Affordability- Mortgage Rates- Mortgage Applications“Latest Economic Indicators” http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EcoIndicator The US Census website provides a historical basis for its leadingindicators for real estate. The statistics are from 1900 to 2002.The indicators mentioned in the Census website are the following:- New housing units started - New one family houses sold- Existing one family houses sold- Manufacturing shipments- Index of industrial production- Manufacturing index- Retail Sales- Exports Basis- General Imports“No. HS-40. Economic Indicators for Construction, Real Estate, Manufacturing,Retail, and Foreign Trade Sectors: 1900 to 2002” http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-40.pdf Finally, here is an academic study about real estate prices.“Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles” http://urbanpolicy.berkeley.edu/pdf/Q_IRER99PB.pdf Search terms used: “real estate” housing economic indicatorsstudies real estate prices filetype:pdfI hope these links would help you in your research. Before rating thisanswer, please ask for a clarification if you have a question or ifyou would need further information. Thanks for visiting us. Regards, Easterangel-ga Google Answers Researcher Request for Answer Clarification by nronronronro-ga on 20 May 2005 15:33 PDT Alas, Phil...only the women in my life are cash-flow positive. Thatis to say, they stay positive when I let the cash flow.heh heh hehThanks for your great insights, Phil. As always!ron Clarification of Answer by easterangel-ga on 20 May 2005 17:43 PDT Hi!Sorry about this but I just have to make a reply to clarifications.Sincerely.Easterangel nronronronro-ga rated this answer: Heavenly answer, easterangel.As always, thanks a million !ron Comments Log in to add a comment Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: easterangel-ga on 19 Apr 2005 18:25 PDT You're welcome as well. Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: pafalafa-ga on 20 Apr 2005 05:03 PDT Since we're doing some work on the house in DC, I've been paying moreattention that usual to the real estate pages of the Washington Post.One of the sort-of-indicators that they mention often is theincreasing amount of property that is bought as an investment, ratherthan as a first home. They also cite the increasing trends in2nd-home sales.For both of these though, I don't know if there's an actual statistic,or just the observation of people in the business.Nice work, though, easterangel.paf Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: nronronronro-ga on 20 Apr 2005 10:52 PDT Thanks, pafalafa!My business partner just purchased a home across the street from theNational Cathedral. He obviously checked out DC. He found the "PMIRisk Index" for DC was very low, whereas the same PMI Risk Index formy state (California) was very high. The only place more risky thanSan Francisco/San Jose was Boston.Rut Row !ron Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: silver777-ga on 24 Apr 2005 05:35 PDT Ron,Your application of logic is spot on.Your points 1 to 7 could relate to any real estate market.In fact, I had counted the number of "for sale" ads by COLUMNnot just the pages. I also counted the number of propertiesfor lease. Another gauge might be to weigh the newspaper, orin the least the real estate section. I reckon that the more "for lease" properties tells us a lot about the climate of the sale market. An increase in borrowing rates will impact on the rental rates and realised sale prices,regardless of the asking prices published. Check also the auctionclearance rates.Have you sourced any cash-flow positive properties of late?Phil Subject: Re: Real Estate Prices --- Leading Indicators From: nronronronro-ga on 20 May 2005 15:34 PDT Alas, Phil...only the women in my life are cash-flow positive. Thatis to say, they stay positive when I let the cash flow.heh heh hehThanks for your great insights, Phil. As always!ron Important Disclaimer: Answers and comments provided on Google Answers are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. Google does not endorse, and expressly disclaims liability for any product, manufacturer, distributor, service or service provider mentioned or any opinion expressed in answers or comments. Please read carefully the Google Answers Terms of Service . If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by emailing us at answers-editors@google.com with the question ID listed above. Thank you. Search Google Answers for all questions answered questions unanswered questions Google Home - Answers Help & Tips - Answers FAQ - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy ©2005 Google

Las Vegas real estate

Real estate investors cast watchful eye on Las Vegas' high stakes housing game SFGate Home Business Sports Entertainment Travel Jobs Real Estate Autos SFGate News Web by Real estate investors cast watchful eye on Las Vegas' high stakes housing game Kelly Zito, Chronicle Staff Writer Monday, March 7, 2005 now part of stylesheet -- More... Printable Version Email This Article Las Vegas' lucky number last year was 52 -- as in 52 percent. That's how much real estate prices jumped in the nation's fastest-growing city in one year, as a housing shortage set off a wave of speculation by investors from California and other states. But as any gambler knows, Lady Luck eventually turns a cold shoulder. Las Vegans wanted to cash in, too, and so many put their houses up for sale that they flooded the market. By the end of the year, some homebuilders were slashing prices. For investors from states like California where prices seem to move in only one direction -- up -- it was a stark example of a deflating bubble. "When you lose money in real estate, you really feel it,'' said Igor Doncov, a software engineer in Half Moon Bay who bought two new houses in Las Vegas early in 2004 but sold them at a loss after his builder, Pulte Homes, cut prices on its new models by $180,000. "I thought I couldn't lose," he said in a telephone interview. "But it turned into a total disaster." Housing analysts don't think Las Vegas' slowdown is a sign that prices will soften soon in other fast-appreciating regions. But they say it is a warning of what could happen in the Bay Area as interest rates go up -- particularly for people trying to "flip" houses for a quick profit. "Everyone is watching Las Vegas with its price appreciation and flipping," said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick, the La Jolla real estate research firm. "If something weird happens, it'll happen there first." For years, Las Vegas real estate was cheap. Myrna Kingham, president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, remembers not-so-distant days of driving around in a pickup wearing high heels and showing clients dusty 5-acre parcels listed for $20,000. But as the population of Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County grew 81 percent in the 1990s, adding 621,160 people, housing prices caught up, matching the national median of $145,000 in 2001. Then last year, the market caught fire, boosted by healthy job gains, a growing stream of retirees, Californians drawn to lower home prices and an influx of investor money. Builders, faced with a shortage of workers, had trouble keeping up. Add rock-bottom interest rates, and the scene resembled the go-go days of the Bay Area's tech boom. Hundreds of would-be buyers descended on open houses, and home prices seemed to increase as quickly as the progressive jackpots in the slot machines on the Strip. Record appreciation In the spring of 2004, the median price for a single-family house was $269,000, 52 percent higher than the year before -- a national record for appreciation, according to the National Association of Realtors. "The market was hotter than blazes," Kingham said. "People were looking for affordability -- they wanted a nice home in an area with nice weather that they could buy for $200,000." Californians, who pay some of the highest home prices in the nation, took notice. Golden State residents have snapped up nearly 27,000 Las Vegas properties since 2000, according to DataQuick. In 2004 alone, California residents bought 11,600 homes -- 12 percent of the transactions in Clark County for the year. Bay Area residents bought nearly 7,800 Las Vegas properties over the past five years. In the second quarter of 2004 alone, the number who bought Las Vegas property doubled from the same quarter the year before, to more than 800,surpassing investment in Sacramento, the Tahoe region and Palm Springs for the seventh straight quarter. But in less time than it takes to build a single house, the market changed. Egged on by the stratospheric prices their neighbors were asking -- and getting -- homeowners in Las Vegas flooded the market with "for sale" signs. The number of existing houses posted for sale on the Multiple Listing Service ballooned from about 1,400 in February to more than 16,000 by October. Among them were never-lived-in homes offered by investors who had bought them only months before from national homebuilders -- who were selling their own brand-new houses literally across the street. In early fall one of those builders, Pulte Homes, took the extraordinary step of slashing prices by $25,000 to $180,000 on more than 20 of its Las Vegas-area developments. The move sent shock waves through the Las Vegas building industry and angered investors like Igor Doncov. Doncov, a 57-year-old engineer who was a victim of the technology flame-out, was one of thousands of investors who hoped to turn a quick profit by buying and selling Las Vegas property within a few months. Early last year he bought two new houses from Pulte Homes for $515,000 each. By the end of the summer, he said, the houses were worth well over $600,000, based on Pulte's prices for the same models. Then Pulte cut the price by about $180,000. Doncov sold the two properties in December and January for $480,000 and $490,000; after closing costs and sales fees, he estimates he lost $100,000. He is working with a lawyer to try to recoup the losses from Pulte, on the grounds Pulte misled investors by systematically raising new home prices, then abruptly lowering them. Many people in Las Vegas shrug at tales like Doncov's, saying any plan to get rich quick is fraught with risk. "There are people who come here and lose all kinds of money on the card table," said Keith Schwer, an economist at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. By December, it was clear the peak of the frenzy had passed. Residential building permits that month were 34 percent below the previous December's, as measured by the Center for Business and Economic Research, which Schwer directs. And 15 percent fewer people were moving to Las Vegas -- some undoubtedly spooked by the region's steep jump in home prices. Pulte officials would not comment on the price reductions. In the wake of Pulte's move, other builders also cut prices but made no formal announcements. KB Home, the region's largest home builder, didn't cut prices but did tighten its policies on sales to investors. Contracts now stipulate, that, barring the loss of a job or other major problem, those who resell their properties within a year have to give KB Home the profit. Despite the builders' moves, Schwer and other experts say the Las Vegas market remains healthy. In recent months, they say, the number of homes for sale has declined and homes are selling faster. In January, however, there were still 13,800 homes for sale. Though the median price for a new home climbed 6 percent to $307,500, the median for an existing home -- $251,000 - was up only one half of one percent from a year before, according to Schwer. Over the long term, the area's job growth -- including a new 8,000-employee casino opening in April -- warm climate, entertainment options and well-equipped airport will continue to draw buyers, Schwer said. On a Friday morning in February, Bill Jeffers, who owns Valley Furniture in Livermore, toured a $731,000 home in a subdivision called Inverness. By buying a home in Las Vegas, Jeffers, who has lived on Maui for several years, will shorten his twice-monthly commute to the store and put his grandchildren into strong school systems. "I tried to get in last year, but there were just too many other buyers," said Jeffers, a Livermore native. Some making profits And some investors who bought wisely are making profits. Stephanie Wedge, a San Jose real estate agent who also brokers property in Las Vegas, bought a house for $625,000 last May. She put the 5-year-old home on the market on Feb. 23 for $775,000, and she expected to get an offer the following week. "That's a really good turnaround," said Wedge, who also has reserved a condo in a yet-to-be built high-rise. "I think it depends on where the property is -- and this is in a gated, country club community." The continued pace of construction serves as an outward sign of the region's confidence. On a stretch of freeway south of the Strip, a sign reads "KB Home, Next 5 Exits." Adding more houses to a market already flush with them would seem to only exacerbate any stagnation in the market. But Dennis Smith, president of Las Vegas' Homebuilders Research Inc. pointed out the vast majority of new homes are presold. The market "is still in correction mode because of the high inventory in the resale segment,'' he said. "It will probably take at least six months for that to end." So, will what happened in Vegas, stay in Vegas? Schwer doubts Las Vegas' deceleration will bleed into the Golden State -- or any other state -- in part because Las Vegas growth rates were so far above the norm. Others say the arc of Las Vegas' recent experience may contain a hint of the Bay Area's future. While the nine-county region saw much lower price appreciation last year than Las Vegas -- an increase of about 17 percent -- Ed Leamer, a UCLA economist, contends that both regions are enveloped in a speculative frenzy. In Las Vegas, an oversupply of homes relative to demand may spell price declines. Back in the Bay Area, Leamer thinks rising interest rates will take some of the air out of the market as fewer people qualify to buy expensive properties -- though any correction would be far less dramatic than Las Vegas'. "Because the market has cracked in Las Vegas doesn't mean it's imminent in other areas," Leamer said. "But it gives you a sense of what may happen in these areas in the face of rising interest rates." E-mail Kelly Zito at kzito@sfchronicle.com . Page A - 1 Get up to 50% off home delivery of the Chronicle for 12 weeks! MARKETING Compelling writer? Action 36 Cable 6 (KICU-TV) MECHANIC SF tugboat co POKER Expert poker player needed REAL ESTATE Sales *FREE TRAINING! Prudential CA Realty SALES Can you sell the President? IPA SALES Benefit package AGI Publishing SALES $125K PLUS In-Home Kitchen Kitchenworks, Inc. 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Home For Sale

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Investment Property Databank IPD Home About IPD Portfolio Analysis Services Events Indices and Market Information Indices for Derivatives Online Services -- Research Services Indices & Publications Downloads Price List Property Vehicles Databank Lease Events Review In UK Europe France Germany Netherlands Ireland Sweden South Africa Canada Denmark Norway Spain Portugal Price List UK - Publications, Research and other Services Order Form (pdf) Annual Index Free Richard Gwilliam +44 (0)20 7643 9283 Monthly Index Sample 350 Angela Porter +44 (0)20 7643 9291 Quarterly Review 1000 Mark Callender +44 (0)20 7643 9238 Property Investors Digest Sample 3500 Mark Callender +44 (0)20 7643 9238 Key Centres Report Sample 6500 Anglea Sheahan +44 (0)20 7643 9238 Local Market Monitor Sample 250 Anglea Sheahan +44 (0)20 7643 9283 Monthly Market Monitor Sample 2000 Angela Porter +44 (0)20 7643 9291 Market information for Portfolio Managers (MIPS) £3000 Steven Devaney +44 (0)20 7643 9283 Property Funds Review Free to PAS Clients. £495 for non-PAS clients Kevin Swaddle +44 (0)20 7643 9275 Research Studies Quote from: Mark Callender +44 (0)20 7643 9238 Data to Order Quote from: Richard Gwilliam +44 (0)20 7643 9283 UK and European Directories of Property Vehicles UK - £450 European - £650 Both UK & European for £1000 Andreas Arend Mark Callender +44 (0)20 7643 9327 +44 (0)20 7643 9238 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Europe Order Form (pdf) European Digest Package (excl. UK) £7000 Andreas Arend +44 (0)20 7643 9327 European Digest Package (incl. UK) £9500 Andreas Arend +44 (0)20 7643 9327 UK and European Directories of Property Vehicles UK - £450 European - £650 Both UK & European for £1000 Andreas Arend Mark Callender +44 (0)20 7643 9327 +44 (0)20 7643 9238 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 IPD Multi-Country Spreadsheet Flyer €750 Siobhan Callaghan +44 (0)20 7643 9246 France Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Christian de Kerangal +44 (0)20 7643 9319 +33 (0)1 4501 4102 Property Investors Digest 1100 Carine Dasse +44 (0)20 7643 9319 Key Centres Report 1100 Carine Dasse +44 (0)20 7643 9319 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Germany Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Nassos Manginas +44 (0)20 7643 9316 Germany Property Digest 3000 Nassos Manginas +44 (0)20 7643 9316 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 The Netherlands Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Ian Townson Aart Hordijk +44 (0)20 7643 9245 +31 70 349 0195 Property Investors Digest 1500 Ian Townson +44 (0)20 7643 9245 Local Market Performance 2000 Ian Townson +44 (0)20 7643 9245 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Ireland Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Phil Tily +44 (0)20 7643 9311 Property Investors Digest 1500 Phil Tily +44 (0)20 7643 9311 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Sweden Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Andrew Buckley Joakim Franspm Christina Gustafsson +44 (0)20 7643 9265 +46 (0)850 565231 Property Investors Digest 2500 Andrew Buckley +44 (0)20 7643 9315 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 SFI / IPD Swedish Long term Property Index Report £2500 Christina Gustafsson +46 (0)850 565231 South Africa Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Richard Wetherell Stan Garrun +44 (0)20 7643 9266 +27 11 883 0679 Property Investors Digest 1500 Richard Wetherell +44 (0)20 7643 9266 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Canada Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Phil Tily +44 (0)20 7643 9311 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Quarterly Digest $5000 Ca Phil Tily +44 (0)20 7643 9311 Denmark Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Andrew Buckley +44 (0)20 7643 9315 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Norway Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Andrew Buckley +44 (0)20 7643 9315 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Spain Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Julia Marciano +33 1580 53682 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 Portugal Order Form (pdf) Portfolio Analysis Service Quote from: Luis Francisco Antonio Gil Machado +44 (0)20 7643 9318 +35 19 3973 6055 Remuneration Service Brochure Quote from: Vida Godson +44 (0)20 7643 9300 1 St. John's Lane London EC1M 4BL Tel: +44 (0)20 7336 9200 Fax: +44 (0)20 7336 9399 Privacy Policy | © 2005 IPD Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Home | About IPD | Portfolio Analysis Service | Events | Indices and Market Information | Indices for Derivatives | OPD Designed by Webrepro