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Why the world's best real estate investor is cashing out. - Oct. 24, 2005 Web CNN/Money Home News Markets Technology Commentary Personal Finance Autos Real Estate News Newsmakers SAVE | EMAIL | PRINT | SUBSCRIBE TO MONEY | The king of real estate's cashing out Tom Barrack is selling most of his U.S. portfolio. Maybe you should be nervous too. October 24, 2005: 7:56 AM EDT By Shawn Tully , Fortune Senior Writer NEW YORK (Fortune) - Tom Barrack, arguably the world's greatest real estate investor, is methodically selling off his U.S. real estate holdings as prices drive the market to nosebleed levels. He likens the current real estate market to a game of polo. "I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros," says the bronzed 58-year old. "But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don't know when to hold back." It's the same with U.S. real estate right now. "There's too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains." The amateurs are going to get trampled, he explains, taking seasoned horsemen, who should get off the turf, down with them. Says Barrack: "That's why I'm getting out." Investors take heed. Barrack may be an amateur at polo, but when it comes to judging markets, he's the ultimate pro. Arguably the best real estate investor on the planet, he runs a $25 billion portfolio of trophy assets, from the Raffles hotel chain in Asia to the Aga Khan's former resort in Sardinia to Resorts International, the largest private gaming company in the U.S. Barrack's Colony Capital, one of the largest private equity firms devoted solely to real estate, has racked up returns of 21 percent annually since 1990, handing investors, chiefly pension funds and college endowments, 17 percent after all fees. Barrack bought the Fukuoka Dome, Japan's Yankee Stadium, in part because he calculated that the titanium in the retractable roof was worth as much as the purchase price. His strategy is to buy classy but neglected properties anywhere in the world where prices are low. Then, he'll pour in capital to fix them up, and resell in them in five years of so with their pedigrees fully restored. Says his friend Donald Trump: "Tom has an amazing vision of the future, an ability to see what's going to happen that no one else can match." Right now, Barrack's view of the U.S. market couldn't be clearer: It's a great time to sell, and a terrible time to buy. In fact, he sees signs of the tech bubble mentality in real estate. Too much capital is chasing real estate, he explains, with hedge funds, private equity groups, and rich investors all bidding on the same properties. "They've driven prices to the point where the yields on high-quality properties are like the returns on bonds, around 5 percent or 6 percent," says Barrack. "That's too low." And he sees the bubble deflating soon. Barrack thinks the catalyst will be a trend few others are talking about, a steep rise in the price of building materials and labor. "Construction costs have spiked 20 percent in the past nine months," he says. The reasons: Shortages of labor and materials like lumber because of the building boom, and increases in the price of oil, needed to produce everything from plastic piping to insulation to shingles. The slump will show up first in speculative hot spots like Miami and Las Vegas, he says, where condo developers are preselling their projects for what looks like big profits. When they actually build the units over the next year or two, he predicts, they will end up spending more then the units are now selling for. At that point, says Barrack, the developers will try to raise prices. "But most of these buyers are speculators," he says. "They will either sue the developers to get the original price or take their deposits back and walk away." The developers will then put the units back on the market, and the glut of vacant condos will drive prices down. "It's the busted deals caused by construction costs that will cause the turn in the market," he says. So Barrack is buying just one type of property in the U.S.: Casinos. And in contrast to most gaming titans, he's doing it on the cheap. Extraordinary homes, on the cheap ... click here Colony paid just $280 million for the 3000 room Las Vegas Hilton in 2003, one-tenth of what Steve Wynn paid to build his new casino, which has roughly the same number of rooms. The reason Barrack likes casinos is that he's licensed to operate casinos in all the major markets, while most other private equity firms and other financial players don't have licenses. Hence, they're locked out of the market, and can't bid against Barrack. For Barrack, casinos are a safe, exclusive preserve, far from the frenzied melee that's makes every other part of U.S. real estate such a dangerous place to play. For now, Barrack is getting off the field. But when the din subsides, and the amateurs depart, look for Barrack to ride back in, mallet cocked, ready to play again. ---------------------- To read the full-length article from Fortune, click here . The Hot List Most profitable renovations How risky is your 401(k)? Big new tax credits for hybrid cars More Newsmakers Google, Oprah looking hot in '06 Ex-Enron exec pleads guilty NYC transit deal gets OK contact us | magazine customer service | site map | glossary | RSS | press room OTHER NEWS: CNN | SI | Fortune | Business2.0 = Money subscribers = Premium content -- * - Time reflects local markets trading time. † - Intraday data is at least 15-minutes delayed. Disclaimer © 2005 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. 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Preconstruction Real Estate Investments-Virgin Islands-Myrtle Beach Condos for Sale-Investing in Preconstruction Oceanfront Condos and Condominiums" Preconstruction Real Estate Investment Real Estate Pre-Construction Condos Myrtle Beach Condos New Construction Myrtle Beach HOME PRECONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES INVESTORS SELLERS HOME BUYERS OUR AGENTS MLS SEARCH MLS NUMBER SEARCH INVESTMENT NEWS HELPFUL RESOURCES CONTACT US Bahama Island Resort Pier Watch Villas Cherry Grove Tower Cherry Grove Villas I Cherry Grove Villas II Diamond Cay Marina BVI South Beach Villas Ocean Drive Villas Myrtle Beach Villas II Preconstruction Real Estate Investments The Resort at Cherry Grove Manor - 1, 2, 3, 4 Bedrooms Available - Floorplans and Renderings Coming Soon If you've decided to invest in preconstruction real estate in Myrtle Beach ormany other areas, you've made a wise decision indeed. Homes and condos on the beach are breaking records in sales. New construction is soaring and investors are buying before the costs of Myrtle Beach real estate increase to equal other beach resorts. Our experienced agents at Oceanfront Real Estate Company specialize in helping youto find that perfect real estate investment project, and in the sales and development of new homes and luxury vacationing condos. Pre-Sale Real Estate and Condos Browse our Featured Listings and view our choice properties. You'll find the newest Myrtle Beach Pre-Construction condo projects for real estate investment opportunites. From oceanfront real estate to water-front marina projects on the Intracoastal Waterway,and even Jost Van Dyke real estate in the British Virgin Islands, we can advise and assist you in finding the best pre-selling investment real estate with the most potential for high return. Investment Real Estate - Myrtle Beach & Other Resort Areas Real Estate Investment Property is the most highly sought and frequently misunderstood methods of increasing your net income and retirement savings. The fantastic new pre-sale opportunities that we offer will insurethat you put your money in the most innovative and potentially high income-producing oceanfront condos in Myrtle Beach and other spectacular resort areas. Knowledge and experience are the keys to making wise decisions in real estate investing, and in finding the new properties as soon as they become available. For more information on the presale process, read our information onthe INVESTORS page, or call us and let us explain it to you. With a combined background of100 years of experience in real estate, our investment savvy team can help you to find your dream vacation condo, or supplement your retirement income with a vacation rental property that produces years of profit and equity. You can trust Oceanfront Real Estate Company to guide you in building your financial security! Oceanfront Real Estate Company Specializing in Preconstruction Real Estate Steve McIntosh, Broker in Charge 414 Sea Mountain Hwy Cherry Grove Section North Myrtle Beach, SC 29582 Toll Free 1-866-372-6952 (843) 663-1101 EMAIL US! Resorts and Real Estate Agencies Myrtle Beach Vacations Guide! Sarasota Real Estate Sarasota Homes Los Angeles Real Estate Los Angeles Photographer The Real Estate Blog Burbank Real Estate Myrtle Beach Golf Packages Myrtle Beach Golf Vacations Las Vegas Real Estate and Homes Siesta Key Real Estate New Preconstruction Resorts Arizona Golf Vacations-Las Vegas Golf Clearwater Florida Real Estate Tucson Real Estate Real Estate Blog Myrtle Beach Condos Hawaii Real Estate Preconstruction Condos Columbus Ohio Real Estate Bay View Resort Condos Tucson Luxury Homes Vacation Home Real Estate Investments Oak Island Realty Ocean Isle Real Estate Oyster Harbour at Holden Beach River Bluff Estates at Holden Beach SeaScape at Holden Beach Shallotte Real Estate Real Estate Marketing Web Design for Realtors Henderson Real Estate New Myrtle Beach Condos Myrtle Beach Golf Packages Myrtle Beach Golf Austin Homes Canmore Real Estate-Banff Real Estate Sarasota Florida Real Estate Las Vegas Golf Homes Pasadena Real Estate South Carolina Real Estate Boca Raton FL Real Estate Florida Real Estate New Homes for Sale Costa Rica Vacation Rental Virgin Islands Vacations Real Estate St George Utah Real Estate Stuart Florida Real Estate Raleigh-Cary Real Estate Myrtle Beach Condos Hawaii Real Estate for Sale San Diego Real Estate Las Vegas High Rise Condos Prince Resort at Cherry Grove Pier South Myrtle Beach Real Estate Southport Real Estate St James Plantation Real Estate Sunset Beach Condos Sunset Beach Real Estate Sunset Harbor Real Estate Tampa Real Estate Orange County Real Estate - MLS - Realtor Timeshare Sales We're listed at Real Estate & Mortgage Roanoke Biz2Biz An Roanoke business to business marketplace and advertisement opportunity. Real Estate Agents & Realtors Investment Real Estate Real Estate Web Design and SEO by Myrtle Beach Web Design

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