Las Vegas real estate

Real estate investors cast watchful eye on Las Vegas' high stakes housing game SFGate Home Business Sports Entertainment Travel Jobs Real Estate Autos SFGate News Web by Real estate investors cast watchful eye on Las Vegas' high stakes housing game Kelly Zito, Chronicle Staff Writer Monday, March 7, 2005 now part of stylesheet -- More... Printable Version Email This Article Las Vegas' lucky number last year was 52 -- as in 52 percent. That's how much real estate prices jumped in the nation's fastest-growing city in one year, as a housing shortage set off a wave of speculation by investors from California and other states. But as any gambler knows, Lady Luck eventually turns a cold shoulder. Las Vegans wanted to cash in, too, and so many put their houses up for sale that they flooded the market. By the end of the year, some homebuilders were slashing prices. For investors from states like California where prices seem to move in only one direction -- up -- it was a stark example of a deflating bubble. "When you lose money in real estate, you really feel it,'' said Igor Doncov, a software engineer in Half Moon Bay who bought two new houses in Las Vegas early in 2004 but sold them at a loss after his builder, Pulte Homes, cut prices on its new models by $180,000. "I thought I couldn't lose," he said in a telephone interview. "But it turned into a total disaster." Housing analysts don't think Las Vegas' slowdown is a sign that prices will soften soon in other fast-appreciating regions. But they say it is a warning of what could happen in the Bay Area as interest rates go up -- particularly for people trying to "flip" houses for a quick profit. "Everyone is watching Las Vegas with its price appreciation and flipping," said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick, the La Jolla real estate research firm. "If something weird happens, it'll happen there first." For years, Las Vegas real estate was cheap. Myrna Kingham, president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, remembers not-so-distant days of driving around in a pickup wearing high heels and showing clients dusty 5-acre parcels listed for $20,000. But as the population of Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County grew 81 percent in the 1990s, adding 621,160 people, housing prices caught up, matching the national median of $145,000 in 2001. Then last year, the market caught fire, boosted by healthy job gains, a growing stream of retirees, Californians drawn to lower home prices and an influx of investor money. Builders, faced with a shortage of workers, had trouble keeping up. Add rock-bottom interest rates, and the scene resembled the go-go days of the Bay Area's tech boom. Hundreds of would-be buyers descended on open houses, and home prices seemed to increase as quickly as the progressive jackpots in the slot machines on the Strip. Record appreciation In the spring of 2004, the median price for a single-family house was $269,000, 52 percent higher than the year before -- a national record for appreciation, according to the National Association of Realtors. "The market was hotter than blazes," Kingham said. "People were looking for affordability -- they wanted a nice home in an area with nice weather that they could buy for $200,000." Californians, who pay some of the highest home prices in the nation, took notice. Golden State residents have snapped up nearly 27,000 Las Vegas properties since 2000, according to DataQuick. In 2004 alone, California residents bought 11,600 homes -- 12 percent of the transactions in Clark County for the year. Bay Area residents bought nearly 7,800 Las Vegas properties over the past five years. In the second quarter of 2004 alone, the number who bought Las Vegas property doubled from the same quarter the year before, to more than 800,surpassing investment in Sacramento, the Tahoe region and Palm Springs for the seventh straight quarter. But in less time than it takes to build a single house, the market changed. Egged on by the stratospheric prices their neighbors were asking -- and getting -- homeowners in Las Vegas flooded the market with "for sale" signs. The number of existing houses posted for sale on the Multiple Listing Service ballooned from about 1,400 in February to more than 16,000 by October. Among them were never-lived-in homes offered by investors who had bought them only months before from national homebuilders -- who were selling their own brand-new houses literally across the street. In early fall one of those builders, Pulte Homes, took the extraordinary step of slashing prices by $25,000 to $180,000 on more than 20 of its Las Vegas-area developments. The move sent shock waves through the Las Vegas building industry and angered investors like Igor Doncov. Doncov, a 57-year-old engineer who was a victim of the technology flame-out, was one of thousands of investors who hoped to turn a quick profit by buying and selling Las Vegas property within a few months. Early last year he bought two new houses from Pulte Homes for $515,000 each. By the end of the summer, he said, the houses were worth well over $600,000, based on Pulte's prices for the same models. Then Pulte cut the price by about $180,000. Doncov sold the two properties in December and January for $480,000 and $490,000; after closing costs and sales fees, he estimates he lost $100,000. He is working with a lawyer to try to recoup the losses from Pulte, on the grounds Pulte misled investors by systematically raising new home prices, then abruptly lowering them. Many people in Las Vegas shrug at tales like Doncov's, saying any plan to get rich quick is fraught with risk. "There are people who come here and lose all kinds of money on the card table," said Keith Schwer, an economist at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. By December, it was clear the peak of the frenzy had passed. Residential building permits that month were 34 percent below the previous December's, as measured by the Center for Business and Economic Research, which Schwer directs. And 15 percent fewer people were moving to Las Vegas -- some undoubtedly spooked by the region's steep jump in home prices. Pulte officials would not comment on the price reductions. In the wake of Pulte's move, other builders also cut prices but made no formal announcements. KB Home, the region's largest home builder, didn't cut prices but did tighten its policies on sales to investors. Contracts now stipulate, that, barring the loss of a job or other major problem, those who resell their properties within a year have to give KB Home the profit. Despite the builders' moves, Schwer and other experts say the Las Vegas market remains healthy. In recent months, they say, the number of homes for sale has declined and homes are selling faster. In January, however, there were still 13,800 homes for sale. Though the median price for a new home climbed 6 percent to $307,500, the median for an existing home -- $251,000 - was up only one half of one percent from a year before, according to Schwer. Over the long term, the area's job growth -- including a new 8,000-employee casino opening in April -- warm climate, entertainment options and well-equipped airport will continue to draw buyers, Schwer said. On a Friday morning in February, Bill Jeffers, who owns Valley Furniture in Livermore, toured a $731,000 home in a subdivision called Inverness. By buying a home in Las Vegas, Jeffers, who has lived on Maui for several years, will shorten his twice-monthly commute to the store and put his grandchildren into strong school systems. "I tried to get in last year, but there were just too many other buyers," said Jeffers, a Livermore native. Some making profits And some investors who bought wisely are making profits. Stephanie Wedge, a San Jose real estate agent who also brokers property in Las Vegas, bought a house for $625,000 last May. She put the 5-year-old home on the market on Feb. 23 for $775,000, and she expected to get an offer the following week. "That's a really good turnaround," said Wedge, who also has reserved a condo in a yet-to-be built high-rise. "I think it depends on where the property is -- and this is in a gated, country club community." The continued pace of construction serves as an outward sign of the region's confidence. On a stretch of freeway south of the Strip, a sign reads "KB Home, Next 5 Exits." Adding more houses to a market already flush with them would seem to only exacerbate any stagnation in the market. But Dennis Smith, president of Las Vegas' Homebuilders Research Inc. pointed out the vast majority of new homes are presold. The market "is still in correction mode because of the high inventory in the resale segment,'' he said. "It will probably take at least six months for that to end." So, will what happened in Vegas, stay in Vegas? Schwer doubts Las Vegas' deceleration will bleed into the Golden State -- or any other state -- in part because Las Vegas growth rates were so far above the norm. Others say the arc of Las Vegas' recent experience may contain a hint of the Bay Area's future. While the nine-county region saw much lower price appreciation last year than Las Vegas -- an increase of about 17 percent -- Ed Leamer, a UCLA economist, contends that both regions are enveloped in a speculative frenzy. In Las Vegas, an oversupply of homes relative to demand may spell price declines. Back in the Bay Area, Leamer thinks rising interest rates will take some of the air out of the market as fewer people qualify to buy expensive properties -- though any correction would be far less dramatic than Las Vegas'. "Because the market has cracked in Las Vegas doesn't mean it's imminent in other areas," Leamer said. "But it gives you a sense of what may happen in these areas in the face of rising interest rates." E-mail Kelly Zito at kzito@sfchronicle.com . Page A - 1 Get up to 50% off home delivery of the Chronicle for 12 weeks! MARKETING Compelling writer? Action 36 Cable 6 (KICU-TV) MECHANIC SF tugboat co POKER Expert poker player needed REAL ESTATE Sales *FREE TRAINING! Prudential CA Realty SALES Can you sell the President? IPA SALES Benefit package AGI Publishing SALES $125K PLUS In-Home Kitchen Kitchenworks, Inc. 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Business for sale | Businesses For Sale | Buy a business or sell a business on BizBuySell for brokers listings by email find a buyer advertise about us site map With over 35,000 active businesses for sale, BizBuySell is the Internet's largest and most heavily trafficked business for sale exchange. Start here to buy an established business for sale. 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Real Estate Banner Network, Real Estate Directory Reals.com Find Link Partners Classifieds Traffic Packages New User? Sign Up Create Username Create Password Comfirmation Password Email Address Banner URL Site URL Already a Member? Sign In Username Password Forgot your password? Email Address Increase traffic to your site. Join the Real Estate Banner Network and advertise your site for free! Real Estate Banner Network is a free service designed to help Real Estate web sites trade advertising with each other. When you place the Real Estate Banner Network HTML code on your web page, you can immediately earn exposure for your advertising banner on other sites in the Real Estate Banner Network. As your banner is shown elsewhere, visitors will be exposed to your product or service and click-through to your website. We accept only Real Estate related web sites. Display ratio of 2:1, 3:2 and 1:1 for Quality Placement Browse Real Estate Directory Agents & Brokers Apartment & Rental Appraisal Commercial Construction & Builders Consultant Directories & Guides Escrow & Title Service Finance and Mortgage For Sale By Owner Foreclosure Golf Property Home & Garden Inspection Insurance International Land Legal Luxury Home Mover & Relocation New Home News & Media Notaries Planned Community Property Listings Property Management Resort Support & Supplies © 2003-2005 Real Estate Banner Network All Rights Reserved. See Also : RealEstate4.com | LinkRE.com | iRealEstateDirectory.com | RealEstateYellow.com

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MSN Money - Nothing quick about getting rich with real estate MSN Home Hotmail My MSN Sign In Money S earch MSN Money: Help Home News Banking Investing Planning Taxes My Money Portfolio Loans Insurance Investing Home Portfolio Markets Stocks Funds ETFs Commentary Brokers CNBC TV MSN Money Insight Jubak's Journal SuperModels Start Investing Strategy Lab Company Focus Mutual Funds Street Patrol Other Views Contrarian Chronicles TheStreet.com Resources Commentary Index Decision Centers Start Investing Mutual Funds Find Hot Stocks Simple Strategies Power Tools Investing For Income Real Estate Related Links Expert Picks Market Dispatches CNBC Stock Picks Message Boards Print-friendly version Send this to a friend Research any REIT Find top-performing mutual funds Sortable database of SEC filings Find stock winners with our screener Personal finance bookshelf Find It! Article Index Finance Q&A Tools Index Site Map Recent articles by MP Dunleavey: • How to invest when you've got just $500 , 1/15/2004 • Your 3 worst debt consolidation moves , 1/11/2004 • Feel guilty if youre not shopping? , 1/4/2004 More... Related Sites Robert Allen Institute Millionaire Hall of Fame National Association of Realtors John T. Reeds Web site John T. Reeds reviews of the real estate gurus Carleton Sheets Web site Joe Crumps Real Estate Moneymaker.com The Basics Nothing quick about getting rich with real estate advertisement A real estate seminar promoter promised to create 1,000 new millionaires, but so far none are in sight. See what happened to his believers. By MP Dunleavey Like a lot of people these days, Marjorie Stark wouldnt mind making a little extra cash -- or even a lot of it. So when she attended an information session for Robert Allens Creating Wealth Through Real Estate seminar in New York, she was more than willing to pay $2,495 for Allens intensive three-day course on real estate investment strategies. Concerned about not having enough to retire on and wanting to pass along some wealth to her kids some day, the 62-year-old New York City educator said to me then: I am convinced that real estate is the way to go. I was there that night, too, and I could scarcely resist the mouth-watering idea that those three days could make me rich. As the guy leading the session announced: We are on a mission to create 1,000 new millionaires in 12 months! A year later, Stark isnt any closer to being a millionaire. She hasnt bought any new property nor made any money on real estate -- except for the rental property she owned before and bought the hard way (with cash and bank loans). She even admitted that when she saw Robert Allens newest venture was in vitamin sales, I thought I was going to puke. I was very disillusioned. But Stark is undaunted and still believes there are fortunes to be made in real estate. She just enrolled in another seminar at a local college on how to buy distressed and foreclosed properties, she says. With a full-time job, Im not sure how I can do it, but, boy, am I itching to go! Start investing with $100. Explore our new ETF center. Theres something about real estate Stark is not alone. The National Association of Realtors doesnt track independent real estate investment seminars or how many people attend them, but their allure springs eternal like the get-rich hopes of those who sign up for these courses. The odds of winning are not high. Robert Allens 1,000 new millionaires never materialized in the last year, for example. Allen operates whats called The Enlightened Millionaire Institute. Its Millionaire Hall of Fame Web site lists only 50 millionaires (defined as having generated gains averaging $2.6 million). A spokesman admits not all of them exclusively used the Allen method of real estate investing. (And, in a disclaimer, the site notes, No information has been verified or authenticated. Results vary. All successes are subject to one's own knowledge and effort.) Despite all that, the Robert Allen Institute still conducts two or three seminars a week in different cities and says it reaches about 1,200 people each month. (Thats 1,200 x $2,495 = $2.99 million a month, in case you left your calculator home.) Allen is just one of dozens of artful salesmen who preach fancy financing, no money down, flipping properties quickly and numerous other strategies to get rich buying and selling real estate. And the question all this preaching raises is, do these investment techniques, systems and strategies really work? Can they actually make you rich? After all, would people keep trying it if it couldnt be done? Or are hundreds of thousands of people simply seduced by expert sales pitches and swindled out of hundreds and sometimes thousands of dollars? Weighing the evidence Like so many things in life, it depends on whom you talk to. Or whose Web site you believe. John T. Reed is a real estate investment coach himself, based in Alamo, Calif. Hes also a self-appointed watchdog for this industry. He keeps the most exhaustive list I could find of dozens of so-called gurus, along with reviews of their techniques, books and other products. Although Reeds Web site , where you also can buy his various books for $29.95, reads a bit like he has a chip -- a very big chip -- on his shoulder, he was recommended by the National Association of Realtors as a serious investigator in the industry. Not that hes against real estate investment, or some of the reputable folks who teach their own hard-won wisdom. But those have been degraded by "the endless parade of B.S. artists coming into the real-estate-investment-advice field. It is an embarrassment to the good people in the business." And many people believe his grousing is justified. Norm Bour is the host of The Real Estate and Finance Hour on KLSX in Los Angeles, a top talk radio station. Hes worked in real estate as a mortgage lender and describes the proliferation of real estate seminars, workshops and scams as a major pet peeve. Case in point: foreclosures, he begins. Real estate in California has gone berserk in the last few years so people are looking for foreclosures to buy. The idea being you can buy a foreclosure more cheaply than other property and potentially gain a windfall when you sell it. But, as Bour notes, You can count on one hand how many actual foreclosure properties there are (for sale). Yet theres no lacking of people who are offering real estate foreclosure lists. One might pay $35 for a list, but it may be peppered with properties in other states. Its not fraudulent, but its certainly deceptive. The shady gray area Well-known personalities like Robert Allen or Carleton Sheets , who have extensive marketing organizations, are a little different, Bour says. They offer some very solid basics, but the number of people who can do what they propose is very small -- because they make it sound so much easier than it is. Thats what Josh Kelinson, a freelance advertising consultant in New York, found when he and two friends tried to follow the Sheets method. The three pals pooled their resources to master what Sheets preached, which is similar to the Allen method: buying property with no money down (or some other creative financing method) and flipping later on for a profit. One of his pals took the seminar, another bought the 8-CD set, etc. Thus inspired and determined, they tried to buy a building suitable for five apartments in Massachusetts, not far from where theyd all grown up. Kelinson says the actual experience of trying to buy an income property proved eye-opening. We spent a ton -- and I mean a ton -- of time on it. There was the approval process, the paperwork, getting lawyers. It took two to three hours a day, not including weekend travel time and unexpected snafus. I found it impossible to do with a full-time job. Ultimately, the project bogged down because of a major zoning problem. The building was in an area zoned for three apartments, and the building had been illegally converted into five apartments. The zoning authorities refused to grant an exception to the rules. Then, the building owner refused to return their deposit. The three were out $35,000. Still, Kelinson doesnt feel misled or duped by the Sheets method, and he and his friends are sure they can make it work with their next deal. There are a lot of other things out there that are scams, but this definitely can be done, he says. But investing in real estate is not nearly as easy as it looks, he says. Make sure you have the time to do it, he advises wannabe investors. If you dont allocate the time, it probably wont work. We want the system to work so much And therein lies the fundamental appeal, and ultimate trouble, of get-rich-quick (GRQ) strategies. Its the jackpot mentality, says psychologist Patricia Farrell, author of How to Be Your Own Therapist . Just like the schmoe who buys a winning lottery ticket -- every once in a while, someone, somewhere really does use these edgy real estate investment techniques to make millions. Its not the principles that are flawed, says Bour. Its the simplicity and ease that are overstated. Most of these courses are so seductive, Farrell says, because they operate according to a tried-and-true principle of behavioral psychology called the variable ratio reinforcement schedule. Basically, people (and rats) will persist in doing something, even with little or no return, if they are given the tiniest bit of hope of a coming reward. So the fact that some people do succeed at no money down strategies acts like a financial aphrodisiac for all those watching, waiting, hoping. So could the Starks and Kelinsons of the world be next? Is it just a matter of reapplying the Robert Allen/Carleton Sheets techniques until they work? Mark Wilson, one of the millionaires created by the Robert Allen Institute, would say yes. The president of Southeastern Housing Partners in Hickory, N.C., Wilson started investing in real estate in the late 1980s. We were doing OK, but nothing to write home about. Then in 2002, after hearing Robert Allen speak, Wilson paid $5,000 to join a one-year intensive coaching course. It changed his life, his business and, above all, his cash flow, he says. Although hed read Allen's No Money Down in college, the seminar focused more on another Allen signature strategy: developing multiple streams of income (from rentals, rehabs, buying foreclosed properties, commercial properties, etc.). Now, Wilson says, hes about to close a deal that will put his net worth at $8.5 million. He believes anyone can make big bucks from real estate if he or she is willing to take action -- not just sit on the sofa listening to tapes. Before you sign up, count to a million Of course, Wilson admits that it was easier for him to take the Robert Allen techniques and run with them. He had a lot of experience in real estate already. Most people, Bour points out, dont have those skills. And few people have the time or the diligence to acquire them. (Some skill sets you need to have -- and the course cant teach it to you, agrees Kelinson.) Bob Underwood of Stafford, Va., is one person who can testify to the fact that investing in real estate is not for those steeped in fantasy. Underwood bought an e-book from yet another author and teacher by the name of Joe Crump . Crump, who hails from Indianapolis, teaches a no-money-down technique, but he told me that he does it legally and ethically. Underwood, 43, has a wife and family and a full-time job -- and no time to muck about in real estate with no return. He paid Crump about $500 for one-on-one coaching in 2002 and, after a rocky start, has managed to buy three properties in the last two years. Hes sold one of them, made about $10,000, after taxes, in the process and is hoping to rehab and sell another this year. One deal Underwood did alone, the next was with a partner. He says theres no cookie-cutter method that works. What works, he says, is getting out into the market, investing the time to learn about the business, not neglecting your wife and kids (or day job), learning from your mistakes, making friends and getting advice from others as you move forward. Slowly, steadily and not particularly wealthily. Remember, you have to pay capital gains (taxes) on the profits, he says, so its not a lot of money in the end. But that, of course, isnt what people want to hear. People are lead to believe that all you need is the right plan and youll make a million, that if you use this system youll be rewarded, says psychologist Farrell. They dont realize that the possibility of getting that big reward is so remote. 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