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Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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Inman Real Estate News - Navigating real estate loan locks, docs Part 7: Finding the right home loan Navigating+real+estate+loan+locks%2c+docs Part+7%3a+Finding+the+right+home+loan %3ca+href%3d'http%3a%2f%2fwww.inman.com'+target%3d'_blank'%3eInman+News%3c%2fa%3e Jack+Guttentag 2005-12-19T00%3a00%3a00.0000000-08%3a00 49257 HOME | NEWS | JOIN | PRODUCTS | CONFERENCES | ADVERTISE | ADVICE | ABOUT US | CONTACT US | SUBMIT A TIP Member Resources Members Home Search Inman News Content Warehouse Cartoon Database Weekly Newsletter Special Reports Audio Files Inman Blog Feedback Connect Registration Audio Conference LETTERS TO THE EDITOR There's no denying real estate bubble Re: ' Worst-case scenario for housing next year ' (Dec. 28) Dear Editor: I have been a real estate investor since I was 19. I am now 54. To deny a real estate bubble is to ignore the obvious market fundamentals. Obviously, there are different factors in different markets, but as a longtime investor/Realtor/broker there is no logical argument against real estate prices declining 10 percent to 30 percent in the "hot markets." The South Florida condo market will be a blood bath. The median income cannot buy the median house in most markets; interest rates will continue creeping up; speculators have driven prices to insane levels and when the going gets rough they will walk from a lot of residential properties. Most "hot" areas are becoming alarmingly overbuilt with residential inventories rising; lenders have ticking time bombs in their ARMs, negative equity and interest-only mortgages. Do your homework. Be wary of those whose opinions are tainted by the fact that they or their company have a stake in this insane market continuing. Michael H. Mosieur Mosieur Business Brokers Re: ' America closes doors to architectural expression ' (Dec. 26) Dear Editor: This is one of the most insightful articles I've read in a long time. We might add, "And what are we doing to our children as we worship at the altar of the mundane?" Years ago I read that about 1,000 children were tested for creativity just prior to entering kindergarten. Eighty-five percent of the children tested "creative." Twelve years later the same group was tested, and only 35 percent of the students tested "creative." What happened to the children along the scholastic way, and does the country even care? Where's the outcry? Isn't the creativity of our generations one of our most precious resources? It's been said that we're only one generation away from losing our freedom. Could it be that with escalating offshore competition in view, and stultifying U.S. scholastic models utilized, that the above advisory could also apply to our economic freedom? A. Bruce Belfield III Associate real estate broker Hurricane, W.V. FREE website content! Make Inman.com your homepage Get the Inman News Toolbar Link to Inman News Consumer News Commercial News Real Estate Articles from Inman News Already a Member? Log in below to view full story: User ID: Password: Lost Password? Navigating real estate loan locks, docs Part 7: Finding the right home loan Monday, December 19, 2005 By Jack Guttentag Inman News To read this article, become a Member of Inman News now! JOIN NOW TO BECOME AN INMAN MEMBER 100% Satisfaction Guaranteed Group discounts available First Name: Last Name: E-mail: User Name: Call 1.800.775.4662 x128 8am - 5pm Pacific Time to order by phone or to get a discount group membership for your company or colleagues. View News Article Sample Hear Sample View Newsletter Sample Connect Info View Audio Conference Schedule Back Top © 2005 Inman News Home | Privacy | Editorial | Legal | Site Map

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Find Homes For Sale, New Houses, Foreclosures and Real Estate Agents on Yahoo! Real Estate Find Homes For Sale, New Houses, Foreclosures and Real Estate Agents Choose Location Home Homes for Sale Apartments for Rent Home Loans Moving & Insurance Tools My Real Estate Features Classifieds • Sell Your Home • Rent Your Apartment Neighborhood Research • What's My Home Worth? • School Profiles • Neighborhood Profiles Home Loans • Mortgage Rates • Online Rate Quotes • Refinance Loans & Rates • Home Equity Loans & Rates • Free Credit Reports REALTORS • Find & Compare REALTORS Resources • Moving Services • Foreclosure Center Home Improvement & Services • Home Services • Home Improvement Library • House Facts Search Homes For Sale City & State, or Zip: Price Range: $0 $30,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $650,000 $750,000 $850,000 $1 million $1.25 million $1.5 million $1.75 million $2 million $2.25 million $2.75 million $3 million $3.5 million $4 million $4.5 million $5 million $6 million $8 million $10 million to No limit $30,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $650,000 $750,000 $850,000 $1 million $1.25 million $1.5 million $1.75 million $2 million $2.25 million $2.75 million $3 million $3.5 million $4 million $4.5 million $5 million $6 million $8 million $10 million Beds: Any 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Baths: Any 1+ 1 1/2+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Search For: Existing Homes Yahoo! Classifieds New Homes Foreclosures Advanced Search Search Commercial Real Estate Sell Your Home with the Help of Yahoo! Classifieds. Generate leads quickly with placement in front of millions of Yahoo! users. Your ad runs for 21 days URL link to another Web site Post up to six photos Full property description Sell Your Home Today! Foreclosure Center Search Foreclosures Find properties at 20-50% off market value. Learning Center Get educated about foreclosure opportunities. Sponsored Links (Become a Sponsor) Partner Spotlight Featured Sponsor Find a Local REALTOR by HomeGain • Find & Compare REALTORS • Get Home Prices Home Services by ServiceMaster Clean, Fix and Improve your Home Get an Estimate or call 1-866-843-2834 Real Estate News Can separated couple sell two houses in one year? Dec 20, 2005, Inman News Realty Reality: HOA Members have Greater Access to Records Dec 20, 2005, Realty Times Demystifying Escrow For First-Time Home Buyers Dec 15, 2005, RealEstateJournal.com Housing starts rise, core inflation tame Dec 20, 2005, Yahoo! Finance Dubai firm in 26.6-billion-dollar Saudi project (AFP) Dec 20, 2005, Yahoo! News Number of New Homes Increase for a Strong Year Dec 20, 2005, Quicken Loans more real estate news Homes For Sale - Apartments For Rent - Current Mortgage Rates - Real Estate Agents - Local - Yellow Pages

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Information Resources for Texas Conservation David Bezanson 5 236 2004-08-04T20:52:00Z 2004-08-05T01:16:00Z 2 231 1321 TCONR 11 2 1622 9.6926 Information Resources For Texas Conservation TCONR works with other organizations, public and private, to promote conservation and efficient use of natural resources in Texas. This page contains links to fact sheets, white papers, and other information sources that have been compiled by TCONR members or are provided at other external websites. Check back routinely for updated information. Conserving Texas Land and Wildlife The Texas Environmental Profiles website jointly maintained by Environmental Defense and the TexasCenter for Policy Studies includes comprehensive information from many sources about wildlife and land conservation topics such as the status of Texas lands , threatenedspecies and habitat types . The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department conservation page includes links to descriptions of native and endangered species , informationabout opportunities for landowners interested in wildlife and nature tourism, and an introduction to the Texas Master Naturalist Program which has trained hundreds of volunteers to be better land and wildlife managers. Natural Vegetation Types and Their Representation in Conservation Areas . Thesis by David Bezanson lists plant communities that occur in Texas and examines the extent they are conserved in state parks, wildlife areas, and other public and private lands. A summary form, Conservation Priorities for Texas , by David Bezanson and David Wolfe was published in 2001 with a grant from the Magnolia Charitable Trust. The Audubon Society, Texas chapter promotesconservation of birds, other wildlife and their habitat. The Big Thicket Association is an advocacy organization which continues to work to conserve areas of the Big Thicket, one of Texas' most biologically diverse areas. State parks or outdoor links Texas Parks and Rec Many Texans have donated property or conservation easements to a land trust. The Texas Land Trust Council web page contains a guide to this growing movement. Land trusts in Texas include the Conservation Fund andtwo organizations founded by TCONR's Ned Fritz, the Nature Conservancy of Texas and Natural Area Preservation Association , which have conserved more than a million acres of wildlife habitat. The Texas Section Society for Range Management promotes rangeland conservation and research to support responsible grazing management. Native Prairies Association of Texas is a land trust that owns and manages native prairies and provides information about restoring prairies of Texas . The Texas Legacy Project website maintained by the Conservation History Association of Texas is an archive of interviews with individuals, past and present, who have contributed to natural resource conservation in Texas. Texas Water Use and Conservation The Texas Environmental Profiles website jointly maintained by Environmental Defense and the TexasCenter for Policy Studies is a resource for information on water quality , water use and other environmental concerns. Texas Parks and Wildlife Department's Texas: The Stateof Water page contains news articles about water rights and water conservation, designated significant streams, and links to economic analyses of outdoor recreation. For more information about water development and planning, visit the Texas LivingWaters Initiative website, a collaborative project of the National Wildlife Federation , Environmental Defense, and Sierra Club Lone Star Chapter to inform the public about the effects of reservoirs and the importance of water conservation. For specificinformation about Marvin Nichols Reservoir and regional water planning, visit Stop Marvin Nichols . The San Marcos River Foundation is a nonprofit organizationwhich advocates purchase of water rights to protect instream flows in Texas rivers. TCONR's Janice Bezanson and Gina Donovan serve with other volunteers on the Texas River Conservation Advisory Board to provide citizen input on theimportance of natural waters for recreation and the environment. Texas Facts, Figures, and Images Images of Texas natural areas for public use. Back to Home