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Why the world's best real estate investor is cashing out. - Oct. 24, 2005 Web CNN/Money Home News Markets Technology Commentary Personal Finance Autos Real Estate News Newsmakers SAVE | EMAIL | PRINT | SUBSCRIBE TO MONEY | The king of real estate's cashing out Tom Barrack is selling most of his U.S. portfolio. Maybe you should be nervous too. October 24, 2005: 7:56 AM EDT By Shawn Tully , Fortune Senior Writer NEW YORK (Fortune) - Tom Barrack, arguably the world's greatest real estate investor, is methodically selling off his U.S. real estate holdings as prices drive the market to nosebleed levels. He likens the current real estate market to a game of polo. "I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros," says the bronzed 58-year old. "But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don't know when to hold back." It's the same with U.S. real estate right now. "There's too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains." The amateurs are going to get trampled, he explains, taking seasoned horsemen, who should get off the turf, down with them. Says Barrack: "That's why I'm getting out." Investors take heed. Barrack may be an amateur at polo, but when it comes to judging markets, he's the ultimate pro. Arguably the best real estate investor on the planet, he runs a $25 billion portfolio of trophy assets, from the Raffles hotel chain in Asia to the Aga Khan's former resort in Sardinia to Resorts International, the largest private gaming company in the U.S. Barrack's Colony Capital, one of the largest private equity firms devoted solely to real estate, has racked up returns of 21 percent annually since 1990, handing investors, chiefly pension funds and college endowments, 17 percent after all fees. Barrack bought the Fukuoka Dome, Japan's Yankee Stadium, in part because he calculated that the titanium in the retractable roof was worth as much as the purchase price. His strategy is to buy classy but neglected properties anywhere in the world where prices are low. Then, he'll pour in capital to fix them up, and resell in them in five years of so with their pedigrees fully restored. Says his friend Donald Trump: "Tom has an amazing vision of the future, an ability to see what's going to happen that no one else can match." Right now, Barrack's view of the U.S. market couldn't be clearer: It's a great time to sell, and a terrible time to buy. In fact, he sees signs of the tech bubble mentality in real estate. Too much capital is chasing real estate, he explains, with hedge funds, private equity groups, and rich investors all bidding on the same properties. "They've driven prices to the point where the yields on high-quality properties are like the returns on bonds, around 5 percent or 6 percent," says Barrack. "That's too low." And he sees the bubble deflating soon. Barrack thinks the catalyst will be a trend few others are talking about, a steep rise in the price of building materials and labor. "Construction costs have spiked 20 percent in the past nine months," he says. The reasons: Shortages of labor and materials like lumber because of the building boom, and increases in the price of oil, needed to produce everything from plastic piping to insulation to shingles. The slump will show up first in speculative hot spots like Miami and Las Vegas, he says, where condo developers are preselling their projects for what looks like big profits. When they actually build the units over the next year or two, he predicts, they will end up spending more then the units are now selling for. At that point, says Barrack, the developers will try to raise prices. "But most of these buyers are speculators," he says. "They will either sue the developers to get the original price or take their deposits back and walk away." The developers will then put the units back on the market, and the glut of vacant condos will drive prices down. "It's the busted deals caused by construction costs that will cause the turn in the market," he says. So Barrack is buying just one type of property in the U.S.: Casinos. And in contrast to most gaming titans, he's doing it on the cheap. Extraordinary homes, on the cheap ... click here Colony paid just $280 million for the 3000 room Las Vegas Hilton in 2003, one-tenth of what Steve Wynn paid to build his new casino, which has roughly the same number of rooms. The reason Barrack likes casinos is that he's licensed to operate casinos in all the major markets, while most other private equity firms and other financial players don't have licenses. Hence, they're locked out of the market, and can't bid against Barrack. For Barrack, casinos are a safe, exclusive preserve, far from the frenzied melee that's makes every other part of U.S. real estate such a dangerous place to play. For now, Barrack is getting off the field. But when the din subsides, and the amateurs depart, look for Barrack to ride back in, mallet cocked, ready to play again. ---------------------- To read the full-length article from Fortune, click here . The Hot List Most profitable renovations How risky is your 401(k)? Big new tax credits for hybrid cars More Newsmakers Google, Oprah looking hot in '06 Ex-Enron exec pleads guilty NYC transit deal gets OK contact us | magazine customer service | site map | glossary | RSS | press room OTHER NEWS: CNN | SI | Fortune | Business2.0 = Money subscribers = Premium content -- * - Time reflects local markets trading time. † - Intraday data is at least 15-minutes delayed. Disclaimer © 2005 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. 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Find Homes For Sale, New Houses, Foreclosures and Real Estate Agents on Yahoo! Real Estate Find Homes For Sale, New Houses, Foreclosures and Real Estate Agents Choose Location Home Homes for Sale Apartments for Rent Home Loans Moving & Insurance Tools My Real Estate Features Classifieds • Sell Your Home • Rent Your Apartment Neighborhood Research • What's My Home Worth? • School Profiles • Neighborhood Profiles Home Loans • Mortgage Rates • Online Rate Quotes • Refinance Loans & Rates • Home Equity Loans & Rates • Free Credit Reports REALTORS • Find & Compare REALTORS Resources • Moving Services • Foreclosure Center Home Improvement & Services • Home Services • Home Improvement Library • House Facts Search Homes For Sale City & State, or Zip: Price Range: $0 $30,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $650,000 $750,000 $850,000 $1 million $1.25 million $1.5 million $1.75 million $2 million $2.25 million $2.75 million $3 million $3.5 million $4 million $4.5 million $5 million $6 million $8 million $10 million to No limit $30,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $650,000 $750,000 $850,000 $1 million $1.25 million $1.5 million $1.75 million $2 million $2.25 million $2.75 million $3 million $3.5 million $4 million $4.5 million $5 million $6 million $8 million $10 million Beds: Any 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Baths: Any 1+ 1 1/2+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Search For: Existing Homes Yahoo! Classifieds New Homes Foreclosures Advanced Search Search Commercial Real Estate Sell Your Home with the Help of Yahoo! Classifieds. Generate leads quickly with placement in front of millions of Yahoo! users. Your ad runs for 21 days URL link to another Web site Post up to six photos Full property description Sell Your Home Today! Foreclosure Center Search Foreclosures Find properties at 20-50% off market value. Learning Center Get educated about foreclosure opportunities. Sponsored Links HomeSmart - Property Selling Reports Buy a HomeSmart report now for just $24.95. Welcome to HomeSmart. Our instant home price estimates and area trend profiles will help you find the right value when buying or selling a home. www.homesmartreports.com FastCash4Homes.com - Sell Property Sell your home to FastCash4Homes.com. We buy homes in any condition, location or price range. Get fast cash for your home with an offer in minutes from our online analysis. www.fastcash4homes.com We Buy Houses Nationwide We buy houses in all 50 states. Fast close, cash buyers, no commissions. Simple one minute online offer form. www.nationwidehomebuyers.com 1-800-No-Agent: Cash for Houses America's fastest, stress-free home sale. Sell your property now. As seen on TV. Nationwide and local offices. No fees, no obligation. We can help. Available 24 hrs/7 days. www.1-800-no-agent.com (Become a Sponsor) Partner Spotlight Featured Sponsor Find a Local REALTOR by HomeGain • Find & Compare REALTORS • Get Home Prices Home Services by ServiceMaster Clean, Fix and Improve your Home Get an Estimate or call 1-866-843-2834 Real Estate News Can separated couple sell two houses in one year? Dec 20, 2005, Inman News Realty Reality: HOA Members have Greater Access to Records Dec 20, 2005, Realty Times Demystifying Escrow For First-Time Home Buyers Dec 15, 2005, RealEstateJournal.com Housing starts rise, core inflation tame Dec 20, 2005, Yahoo! Finance Dubai firm in 26.6-billion-dollar Saudi project (AFP) Dec 20, 2005, Yahoo! News Number of New Homes Increase for a Strong Year Dec 20, 2005, Quicken Loans more real estate news Homes For Sale - Apartments For Rent - Current Mortgage Rates - Real Estate Agents - Local - Yellow Pages
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