Real Estate Prices: Boom

Calculated Risk: California Real Estate Prices: Boom and Bust Notify Blogger about objectionable content. What does this mean? BlogThis! Calculated Risk Click Here to Return to Main Page Politics and Economics Tuesday, March 15, 2005 California Real Estate Prices: Boom and Bust Today I heard someone comment that California Real Estate never goes down. In fact, California RE has declined in the past in both real and nominal terms. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the price of California RE based on the OFHEO California housing index . For the real price, the nominal price is adjusted by CPI, less Shelter, from the BLS . (1976 = 100) The graph shows that in real terms we have seen two declines since 1980. The first decline, in the early '80s, lasted 3 years. The second decline, in the early to mid '90s, lasted 6 years. The second graph shows the same information by annual rate of return, both real and nominal. The decline in the '90s lasted 24 quarters from peak to trough. It took 9 years for prices to recover in nominal terms to their early '91 peak. Overall prices declined 12% in nominal terms and 26% in real terms. Even more important for the economy are the coincident declines in sales volume. Real Estate prices are “sticky downward” since sellers are slow to adjust their prices down, and buyers are reluctant to buy a declining price asset. In this regards, real estate is an imperfect market in that prices adjust slowly to changes in supply and demand (unlike commodities like corn or wheat). Although prices do decline, it’s the decline in volume that leads to declining employment in real estate related occupations like construction, RE sales, mortgages, and more, and impacts the general economy. posted by CalculatedRisk at 8:39 PM Comments | Trackback Calculated Risk: a senior executive, retired from a public company, with a background in investing, finance and economics. Guest blogger: Angry Bear Commentator: Economics Roundtable WWW Calculated Risk Previous Posts UCLA Anderson Forecast: False Sense of Wealth Mortgage Debt and the Trade Deficit China Reduces Dollars in Its Reserves, Lehman Says Mortgage Debt Increases 13% in 2004 The Other Trust Funds Fed's Poole: Social Security Needs Small Changes Housing: Excessive Leverage? Housing: Two Worrisome Signs China and the Price of Gas Greenspan's March to Infamy Housing Sites: Housing Bubble Blog The Housing Bubble Prof. Pigginton's Econo-Almanac housebubble.com Bubble Meter Boy in the Housing Bubble Email: Calculated Risk "Homeownership has become a vehicle for borrowing and leveraging as much as a source of financial security." Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, Feb 11, 2005 More excerpts of Volcker's Speech and video

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MSN Money - The hazards of some home-equity loans MSN Home Hotmail My MSN Sign In Money S earch MSN Money: Help Home News Banking Investing Planning Taxes My Money Portfolio Loans Insurance Banking Home My Accounts Bill Pay Mortgages/Loans Services Credit Reports Financial Tools Track your bills Resources Decision Centers Home Buying Guide Home Financing Your Credit Rating Financial Privacy Better Banking Credit Card Smarts Bankruptcy Guide Commentary Index Related Links Manage Debt More on Budgeting Print-friendly version Send this to a friend See where rates stand Calculate your debt burden here Find a home-equity loan Find books on home buying Find It! Article Index Finance Q&A Tools Index Site Map Don't get fooled by the "special programs" offer mentioned in advertisements. Today's homeowners have forgotten -- or never learned -- the lessons of their grandparents. Recent articles by Terry Savage: • How to limit divorce's financial sting , 1/5/2003 • 5 financial steps to help your aging parents , 1/5/2003 • Prepare for the unthinkable: long-term care , 1/5/2003 More... The Basics The hazards of some home-equity loans advertisement What looks like an easy way out of debt could one day put your family out on the street. Get the facts behind those enticing ads for 125% home-equity loans before you put your home on the line. By Terry Savage What looks like a great deal, but could turn out to be the most devastating financial decision of your life? It's when you consolidate credit-card debt by taking out home-equity loans for more than the value of your house, sometimes for up to 125% of the home's value. Unlike traditional home-equity loans that rely on the equity you've built up in your home, these loans aren't tax deductible and usually carry higher interest rates. Find a loan that's right for you at the Loan Center By television, direct mail and now by e-mail, lenders are pushing you to consolidate your credit-card debt by borrowing on your home. Here's the text of an actual e-mail I received recently: Consolidate Debt, Refinance Your Home or Put Cash In Your Pocket! We Have Special Programs with rates starting as low as 2.5% APR 7.22% Special Programs for Self-Employed Borrowers Previous Bankruptcies or Foreclosures OK!! Debt Consolidation - pay off high-interest debts and get the cash you need Second Mortgages - get 125% of your home's value. The television commercials make it look easy and enticing. A top athlete, like quarterback Dan Marino, offers you the chance to cut your monthly payments, pay off your credit cards and take out extra cash to remodel your kitchen or go on a vacation. But think twice. It's important to understand the risks, as well as the attraction, of those lower monthly payments. For some, this is the way to go For many people, a home-equity loan is indeed the smart way to borrow. The interest rate is typically lower, and the interest is tax deductible. Plus, home-equity loans are amortized over about 15 years vs. about four years for credit cards. That means the monthly payment on a home-equity loan is far lower than a minimum required credit-card payment. For example, if you owe $10,000 on your credit card at 15%, you'll probably have a monthly payment of $278. But the same amount owed at 15% on a home-equity loan that's amortized over 15 years results in a monthly payment of only $140. The more you owe, the more enticing a home-equity loan looks. At $20,000 in debt in the same scenario, the home-equity loan costs $280 a month, while the credit card and/or auto debt requires a $557 monthly payment. The trouble comes when people borrow all their home equity to pay off their debts, but they haven't learned how to manage their money well enough to avoid running up credit-card debts and auto-loan debts again. In fact, the lenders have a name for this process: It's called "reloading." Then, if the economy slows or one of the breadwinners loses a job, the next time you get into credit-card trouble, you could actually lose your house. Statistics from the Mortgage Bankers Association underscore the problem. The percentage of homes foreclosed in 1998 was 1.16%, about double the rate of the terrible recession years of the early 1980s, when 0.59% of homes were in foreclosure. The rising foreclosure rate comes even as bankruptcy rates remain high, with 1.2 million filings in 1999. But as people try to avoid bankruptcy, they're increasingly taking out home-equity loans to pay off their other bills. As a result of those home-equity loans (and new mortgage programs designed to help people buy homes with down payments of less than 5%), Americans have a lower percentage of equity in their homes than at any time in history. Essentially, an unsecured loan The real kicker comes if you borrow past the value of your home. Unlike home-equity loans, these loans usually are not considered tax deductible. The law says that all interest on a first mortgage (of up to $1 million) is deductible. And interest on up to $100,000 of a second mortgage or home-equity loan also is deductible. By law, interest on any part of a loan that exceeds 100% of the value of your home is not deductible. In addition, lenders typically charge higher rates, because you've essentially taken out an unsecured loan. An unsecured loan means there is no collateral in case you default on the loan. A mortgage for up to the value of your home is "secured" by the home itself. Many lenders charge interest rates seven or eight percentage points higher than traditional mortgages. In some cases, that's twice what you'd pay for a regular mortgage or home-equity loan. Don't get fooled by the "special programs" offer mentioned in advertisements like the one I mentioned earlier, either. They're either introductory loans, which require large "balloon payments" several years later, or adjustable rate loans in which the rates -- and the payments -- can increase every year. As long as the loan is repaid, it's very profitable. And the lenders know that paying off mortgage or home-equity loans takes a high priority in a consumer's mind, so the default rate is far lower than on unsecured credit-card lending. SMR Research, a financial industry market-research firm, reports that about 30% of all home-equity loans are sub-prime. That is, these are loans made to borrowers who are considered a poor credit risk -- the very people most likely to be caught in the crunch when the economy turns down. Bankruptcy: the only escape The greatest danger for those who fall for this pitch is the fact that they've put their home on the line. If they fail to make the payments, the lender can force the home to be sold in a foreclosure proceeding. The grantor of the original mortgage must be paid off first; then the home equity lender collects what's left from the sale price. And if there's not enough equity to repay the home equity lender, a default judgment will be entered against the borrower for the difference. The only escape is bankruptcy. The generation that went through the Great Depression of the 1930s learned the hard way not to borrow against the family home. So many people lost their homes that by 1935, banks categorized 20% of all mortgages as "real-estate owned" -- that is, foreclosed. But today's homeowners have forgotten -- or never learned -- the lessons of their grandparents. Rising home prices have tempted homeowners to count home equity as a source of ready cash. But that kind of home equity borrowing should only be done as part of an overall financial plan and a disciplined approach to money management. Otherwise, today's easy way out of debt could one day put your family out on the street. Editors' choice Don't get scammed by your mover Safeguard your Social Security number 5 ways to tap into the onshore drilling boom Your checkbook just became obsolete Turn $1 a day into $67,815 Readers' choice Ratings Top 5 Articles 9.30 Zombie debt collectors dig up your old mistakes 9.24 Keep thieves out of your bank account 9.22 Credit reports now free for entire U.S. 9.19 10 ways to avoid outrageous hospital overcharges 9.17 Tax breaks for Katrina victims -- and all of us View all top rated articles More Resources · E-mail us your comments on this article · Post on the Your Money message board · Get a daily dose of market news S earch MSN Money tips advertisement MSN Money's editorial goal is to provide a forum for personal finance and investment ideas. Our articles, columns, message board posts and other features should not be construed as investment advice, nor does their appearance imply an endorsement by Microsoft of any specific security or trading strategy. 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Colorado Real Estate

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FOXNews.com SEARCH Raging Wildfires Grass fires in Oklahoma, Texas blamed for deaths, destruction of more than 200 homes Photo Essays • Southern Fires AP Soccer fields sit under floodwaters in Marysville, Calif. Heavy rains swell rivers in northern Calif., causing power outages, forcing some residents to evacuate Photos: California Floods Video: Fierce Storm 'Had to Be Done' Bank robber's officer son defends turning in dad Illinois man gets 40 years in prison after sons spot him in surveillance photo, turn him in LATEST HEADLINES ONLY ON FOX Israeli Warning Video: Is Iran much closer to nuclear weapons than many think? Politics of 2005 Rewind: President Bush, war in Iraq, Supreme Court top stories of the year Home of the Homeless Video: Community of rich residents supports ample homeless population Avoid the Yellow Snow Out There: Man busted throwing bottles of urine over fences The No Spin Year? Grrr! Americans are politically obsessed. Can't we all just get along? 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