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Real Estate Prices

Why the world's best real estate investor is cashing out. - Oct. 24, 2005 Web CNN/Money Home News Markets Technology Commentary Personal Finance Autos Real Estate News Newsmakers SAVE | EMAIL | PRINT | SUBSCRIBE TO MONEY | The king of real estate's cashing out Tom Barrack is selling most of his U.S. portfolio. Maybe you should be nervous too. October 24, 2005: 7:56 AM EDT By Shawn Tully , Fortune Senior Writer NEW YORK (Fortune) - Tom Barrack, arguably the world's greatest real estate investor, is methodically selling off his U.S. real estate holdings as prices drive the market to nosebleed levels. He likens the current real estate market to a game of polo. "I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros," says the bronzed 58-year old. "But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don't know when to hold back." It's the same with U.S. real estate right now. "There's too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains." The amateurs are going to get trampled, he explains, taking seasoned horsemen, who should get off the turf, down with them. Says Barrack: "That's why I'm getting out." Investors take heed. Barrack may be an amateur at polo, but when it comes to judging markets, he's the ultimate pro. Arguably the best real estate investor on the planet, he runs a $25 billion portfolio of trophy assets, from the Raffles hotel chain in Asia to the Aga Khan's former resort in Sardinia to Resorts International, the largest private gaming company in the U.S. Barrack's Colony Capital, one of the largest private equity firms devoted solely to real estate, has racked up returns of 21 percent annually since 1990, handing investors, chiefly pension funds and college endowments, 17 percent after all fees. Barrack bought the Fukuoka Dome, Japan's Yankee Stadium, in part because he calculated that the titanium in the retractable roof was worth as much as the purchase price. His strategy is to buy classy but neglected properties anywhere in the world where prices are low. Then, he'll pour in capital to fix them up, and resell in them in five years of so with their pedigrees fully restored. Says his friend Donald Trump: "Tom has an amazing vision of the future, an ability to see what's going to happen that no one else can match." Right now, Barrack's view of the U.S. market couldn't be clearer: It's a great time to sell, and a terrible time to buy. In fact, he sees signs of the tech bubble mentality in real estate. Too much capital is chasing real estate, he explains, with hedge funds, private equity groups, and rich investors all bidding on the same properties. "They've driven prices to the point where the yields on high-quality properties are like the returns on bonds, around 5 percent or 6 percent," says Barrack. "That's too low." And he sees the bubble deflating soon. Barrack thinks the catalyst will be a trend few others are talking about, a steep rise in the price of building materials and labor. "Construction costs have spiked 20 percent in the past nine months," he says. The reasons: Shortages of labor and materials like lumber because of the building boom, and increases in the price of oil, needed to produce everything from plastic piping to insulation to shingles. The slump will show up first in speculative hot spots like Miami and Las Vegas, he says, where condo developers are preselling their projects for what looks like big profits. When they actually build the units over the next year or two, he predicts, they will end up spending more then the units are now selling for. At that point, says Barrack, the developers will try to raise prices. "But most of these buyers are speculators," he says. "They will either sue the developers to get the original price or take their deposits back and walk away." The developers will then put the units back on the market, and the glut of vacant condos will drive prices down. "It's the busted deals caused by construction costs that will cause the turn in the market," he says. So Barrack is buying just one type of property in the U.S.: Casinos. And in contrast to most gaming titans, he's doing it on the cheap. Extraordinary homes, on the cheap ... click here Colony paid just $280 million for the 3000 room Las Vegas Hilton in 2003, one-tenth of what Steve Wynn paid to build his new casino, which has roughly the same number of rooms. The reason Barrack likes casinos is that he's licensed to operate casinos in all the major markets, while most other private equity firms and other financial players don't have licenses. Hence, they're locked out of the market, and can't bid against Barrack. For Barrack, casinos are a safe, exclusive preserve, far from the frenzied melee that's makes every other part of U.S. real estate such a dangerous place to play. For now, Barrack is getting off the field. But when the din subsides, and the amateurs depart, look for Barrack to ride back in, mallet cocked, ready to play again. ---------------------- To read the full-length article from Fortune, click here . The Hot List Most profitable renovations How risky is your 401(k)? Big new tax credits for hybrid cars More Newsmakers Google, Oprah looking hot in '06 Ex-Enron exec pleads guilty NYC transit deal gets OK contact us | magazine customer service | site map | glossary | RSS | press room OTHER NEWS: CNN | SI | Fortune | Business2.0 = Money subscribers = Premium content -- * - Time reflects local markets trading time. † - Intraday data is at least 15-minutes delayed. Disclaimer © 2005 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. A Time Warner Company ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms under which this service is provided to you. privacy policy Reprints of site stories are available. Top Stories Most overvalued housing markets Risks to the economy in 2006 Which was the worst ad of all in 2005? After the ride, a rest Hilton brands reunite after 40 years YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS Follow the news that matters to you. Create your own alert to be notified on topics you're interested in. Or, visit Popular Alerts for suggestions. Manage alerts | What is this?

real estate agent Tommy

Tommy Pennington Real Estate - Agent for Southlake, Keller, Grapevine and North Texas About Tommy Client Testimonials Free Loan Pre-Approval Local Links Golf Courses Schools Sitemap Clients Only Texas quick question Have a quick question about the Texas real estate market? Fill out this form and we'll get right back to you! Name: Email: Comments: Real Estate By Area Colleyville Real Estate Grapevine Real Estate Haslet Real Estate Keller Real Estate Roanoke Real Estate Southlake Real Estate Trophy Club Real Estate Westlake Real Estate Dallas/Fort Worth and Southlake Texas Real Estate Texas real estate agent Tommy Pennington welcomes you. You've found the web site of Tommy Pennington, Accredited Buyers Representative for Realty Executives, specializing in Southlake Texas Real Estate for the Roxann Taylor Team. Tommy is one of the preferred Buyers Agents in the Southlake Texas real estate market. His expertise lies in helping his Buyers with making educated decisions, negotiating strong contracts, and having a very smooth transition into their new home. Not sure what type of Southlake Texas real estate will suit you best? Try browsing the Northern Texas MLS listings . You can search hundreds of Southlake Texas, Dallas, Ft Worth and North Texas homes at the push of a button! If you want to post your property for free on the MLS, Tommy Pennington can do it for you. Here are a few benefits of using the MLS: Find Texas homes, condos and lofts quickly and effortlessly. Expose your Texas property to hundreds of interested buyers. Search the MLS by price, area and home specification. Tommy is one of the top agents in sales with The Roxann Taylor Team. He focuses on being the local expert in Southlake, Keller, Grapevine, Colleyville, Westlake and the surrounding areas. Call Tommy Pennington today! 888-691-1710 Southlake Texas Real Estate Tommy makes every attempt to help his real estate clients through the home-buying process. Whether you are relocating from out of state or just around the corner, Tommy covers all of the details that are needed in order for his Southlake real estate clients to have a great real estate experience. Southlake Texas Schools Southlake is part of the Carroll Independent School District, given an Exemplary rating by the State of Texas. It's the largest Texas school district to maintain the highest rating of "Exemplary" at the district level, and at every campus. Furthermore, five of Carroll ISD's schools have been marked as National Blue Ribbon Schools by the U.S. Department of Education. Let Tommy Pennington, Texas Realtor sell your home for you today! Call now: 888-691-1710 Southlake Texas Real Estate | Soutlake Texas MLS | Real Estate Resources © 2005 Tommy Pennington Texas MLS Listings | Search For Homes | Texas Relocation | Texas Home Buyers | Texas Home Sellers | Client Testimonials

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