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Real Estate Investment Ideas? 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Peter Coy Every December, BusinessWeek publishes an investment guide for the year ahead. This year I'm doing the real estate story. Here's the question my editors want me to answer: Are there still any real estate bargains out there? What do you think? Any U.S. cities where house prices still have room to rise? ( Youngstown ?) Any countries where real estate is still relatively cheap? ( Germany ?) Condos feel kind of pricey lately, but are there still deals to be had? What about REITs? If you like REITs, which kinds? Name names, please. Remember, it's not enough to say that an investment costs less. You have to make the case that it's likely to go up in price and/or throw off a lot of cash in the next year. Be prepared to defend your choices because at least someone reading this blog is bound to disagree with whatever you say. I'm thinking of giving a prize to the Hot Property reader who comes up with the idea that works out the best over the next year. Let's say, either 100 acres of midtown Manhattan real estate or a paper crown labeled Real Estate Emperor. My choice. So ... send in those ideas and start arguing with each other. 04:56 PM Investing in Real Estate Trackback Pings TrackBack URL for this entry: http://blogs.businessweek.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/ Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Real Estate Investment Ideas? : » Business Week posts "Hot Property" Real Estate Contest from Pacesetter Mortgage Blog Peter Coy, over at the Business Week Hot Property Blog, is posting a Real Estate Investment contest of sorts. His question is this, Are there still any real estate bargains out there? I will put my hat in the ring [Read More] Tracked on October 29, 2005 12:06 PM » The US Real Estate Market from Adam Dudley This article at Business Week Online caused me to post my thoughts about the US real estate investing market. With rising interest rates and a multitude of home owners using deadly interest only loans and ARM's in the US, there [Read More] Tracked on October 31, 2005 09:25 AM Comments how about being a contrarian, and invest in the tanking market. For example, buy puts or short homebuilders and the credit agencies that have the largest exposure. Posted by: bradley jellerichs at October 28, 2005 06:37 PM I'll start the brawling by saying that I'm pretty darn bullish on the Seattle market. My reasoning? It's the economy... With Boeing and Microsoft doing a wonderful job of holding down the fort, and a thriving start-up vibe (in real estate alone, there is Zillow, Redfin, and HouseValues), it seems like enough of the area residents will be flush with cash for the near future to keep prices rising. And while Seattle has definitely seen some growth in the recent past, things have never gotten out of control like they have in the Bay Area. Because I really want to win the 100 acres in Manhattan (or at least an Emperor crown!), I'll get a little more specific. I'd invest in a starter home (~$350K) in the Ballard neighborhood. Of course I'm only speculating, but I think that a home like this still has plenty of room to grow in the near future (i.e. one year). Posted by: Dustin at October 31, 2005 01:30 AM OK, so far I have Maricopa County, Ariz., and Seattle. I have "short the homebuilders." I also got a very intelligent email from someone suggesting a narrow segment of REITs--ones with low debt/equity ratios that get most of their income from leasing buildings to companies in healthy industry sectors. What else? Posted by: Peter Coy at October 31, 2005 05:23 PM First, I have put aside some cash ($50k) in my money market account. I also have on my current house a 15-Year fixed mortgage (50% loan-to-value) with really affordable monthly mortgage payment. Finally, I have no plan to move out for at least 5 years. Second, I opened an (still untapped) equity line of credit on my current home (200k, about half of the equity in my house). And now, guess who will be a major player in the foreclosure market in my county after the housing boom goes bust. Assuming a worst case scenario of a 25% decline in valuation in the years following the bust, my remaining equity stake will vanish but I compensated for that by buying $20,000 worth of premium on OTM put options (CTX Jan08 45 Put for example) on the 2 big home builders in my county. Posted by: the contrarian at October 31, 2005 11:04 PM The conventional wisdom is that "as interest rates rise, real estate values must decline, and so to must REITs." The problem with this CW is that it is too simple, and it doesn't take into account the wide variation in the various types of REITs out there. If rising interest rates and the risk of a "real estate bubble" is a concern, then it is possible to screen for REITs that minimize that risk. For example, if we look at REITs that have low debt/equity ratios and derive their income mostly from leasing properties to other businesses, those REITs will be less sensitive to land valuation and interest rates. These success of these REITs are more dependent on the segment they lease to, such as healthcare, retail, etc. I ran a screen looking for REITs with debt/equity ratio less than 0.5 and whose income is tied to leases. Some promising candidates include Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT). Leases out 43 medical buildings in the Southwest (where there are plenty of retirees and demand for medical services), has a debt/equity ratio of 0.23. Dividend yield is 6.5% and UHT has steadily increased their dividend over the years. A similar healthcare REIT is LTC Properties Inc. (LTC), with 200 senior long-term care facilities, a debt/equity ratio of 0.23 and a divident yield of 6.6%. Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT). Owns and leases hotel and motels to various national chains such as Courtyard by Marriott and Candlewood Suites. Debt to equity is 0.49. Has more debt than I'd like but income from operations has been increasing. Good dividend payer at 7.4%. Correctional Properties Trust (CPV). Leases out 12 prison facilites and has no debt, with a dividend yield of 6.5%. The leases are long-term and include rent increases tied to the CPI. Given the latest White House shenanigans this may be a real growth industry. Interestingly, there were no residential REITs that met my low debt criteria. Many of them have debt/equity ratios greater than one. I believe those REITs are to be avoided. Posted by: Jim in Calif at October 31, 2005 11:06 PM Ernest and Young's Steven Friedman told real estate editors at the National Assn. of Realtors annual convention that the best places to buy a condo in today's market are: Jacksonville, FL Austin, TX Boise, ID Friedman said his choices are based on job growth, affordability, and quality of life. Posted by: Frances Flynn Thorsen at November 1, 2005 06:14 AM Is land still a good buy anywhere? Great comment by Boe Clark about land over on the "Land Sales Could Slow" thread (justly accusing me of being vague). Here's what he wrote: The blogger speaks of land (improved and unimproved I assume), as if it were a homogeneous commodity. Prices are going down...in which markets? In Florida, Arizona, and Texas? Or in California and Colorado? In urban, sub urban, ag, commerically zoned, or residentially zoned land? 10 miles, or twenty miles, from population centers? In urban infill areas? With or without utilities/services? Generalities get us nowhere...specifics you can use to make prudent investment decisions with. Posted by: Peter Coy at November 1, 2005 10:36 AM Here's an Idea: Wait on the housing market and slowly move towards equities. There's some bet up stocks that could bought for a song. Posted by: Joe at November 3, 2005 01:27 PM It probably doesn’t bode well for the real estate market that there are not a lot of investment ideas! Posted by: Dustin at November 3, 2005 04:15 PM What about fixing up and renting or selling dilapidated properties in out-of-favor markets? Somebody in that business emailed me with that suggestion. Seems like it could be a good deal for people who don't mind supplementing their cash with elbow grease. Posted by: Peter Coy at November 3, 2005 06:00 PM Forget the US. Japan's real estate market is rip-roaring. Posted by: Taro Akasaka at November 3, 2005 11:15 PM 1. REITs holding a lot of mid level apartment buildings (where the former homeowners in CA will be moving once the number of foreclosures exceeds 100,000 in the state). 2. REITs specializing in self storage facilities. These units rent for the same price per square foot as apartments, but cost a fraction of the cost to build and maintain and are enormously profitable. Again, demand will soar as the number of foreclosures in CA exceeds 100,000. The number of foreclosures in CA WILL exceed 100,000 now that rates are rising and the I/O speculators and such will be driven out of the market as will so many first time buyers who have been sold these disastrous loans (half of buyers in San Diego and 2/3 of buyers statewide for the past 18 months). Posted by: Dave at November 8, 2005 06:58 PM Are we talking about investments (say 5-7% compounding growth over 20 years) or speculation (dreams of 100% inflation over 1 year)? I like the idea of getting a positive cash flow with 20% down and then watching 5-7% appreciation over 20 years. Summit County, Colorado, is 90 miles west of Denver and another mile higher. From 2001 to 2005, prices were flat, since demand equaled supply. Since January of 2005, demand has increased and prices are starting to climb sharply. Summit County has a great location, great weather, and spectacular scenery, yet is much less expensive than Aspen and Vail. To me it looks like a great bet. Posted by: DaveB at November 12, 2005 04:32 PM Bulgaria is the hottest real estate market in Europe. http://www.thepropertyinvestorsclub.co.uk/pic-bulgarian-property-investment.htm http://www.thepropertyinvestorsclub.co.uk/property-investment-tracker.htm http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/06/global_real_est.html http://bbtbulgaria.blogspot.com Posted by: Dimitar Vesselinov at November 19, 2005 09:21 PM How about India; bungalos on the beach near major cities. Bocas in Panama? Or, Tibet, near Changdu. Those are my bets. Douglas Posted by: Douglas at December 12, 2005 02:55 AM Post a comment Name: Email Address: URL: Comments: Recent Posts New and Improved In 2006, a Harsher Reality for Realty A Gloomy Christmas for Real Estate? The Reflex Effect Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up Recent Comments Cooling in California (6) Housing Numbers Continue to Surprise (9) Neg Am Mortgages (6) Taxpayer-backed mortgages for undocumented immigrants? (5) No mass exodus from the Golden State (12) Short Countrywide? (1) A Gloomy Christmas for Real Estate? (1) Washington DC bubble? (214) Riskiest housing markets (6) Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up (2) Recent Trackbacks Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up (1) More New Homes for Sale (1) A Fun Website for Checking Affordability (1) Impact of higher mortgage rates? (2) Making Sense of Average Mortgage Rates (1) A Less Curvaceous Yield Curve (2) The Westchester Tease (1) More Option ARMs and Alt-A Loans (1) Real Estate Investment Ideas? (2) Boston housing...on the rise???? (1) Categories Affordability Amey's adventures in real estate Bubbles Cali is Doomed Demographics Economy Estate Planning Foreclosures Home builders Housing Prices Investing in Real Estate Mortgage Rates Mortgages Real Estate Culture Refinancing Regions Remodeling Selling Archives December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 Subscribe RSS Feed
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San Francisco Chronicle: Real Estate Thursday, December 29, 2005 Search By : County | City | Address Filter By : Chronicle Ads Open Homes County Select County ****Any County Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma City Please select a county Min. Bedrooms Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms Max. Price No Limit 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 850,000 900,000 950,000 1 Million 1.5 Million 2 Million 2.5 million 3 Million Advanced Search E-mail Alerts Saved Listings -- New Home Developments New Home Videos -- Out of Bay Area Open Homes Recent Home Sales Search By : County | City | Address Enter City or Neighborhood Advanced Search Search By : County | City | Address Enter Address You may enter a full or partial address. Advanced Search Click on the map for Bay Area home sales listings. How To Guide Information to help you select and buy goods and services. - Advertorial Find a contractor and get tips from great professionals with ImproveNet.com, America's Home Improvement Resource. Bay Area school scores and profiles at Great Schools.net . SF Gate's SF and East Bay neighborhood guides. Bay Area Maps Real Estate and Rental display ads from the Chronicle. See the Chronicle's New Homes Section. Save Searches, Listings, & Activate E-mail Alerts! View All Featured Properties Today's Rates Product Avg. Rate 30-yr Fixed 6.020 15-yr Fixed 5.394 30-yr Fixed Jumbo 6.146 5/1 ARM 5.525 Current Mortgage Rates Mortgage calculators Apply to online lenders Rates current as of 12/29/2005 powered by MortgageTrak Surreal Estate An overwrought home for the holidays Carol Lloyd Best of a bunch Real estate authors were prolific in 2005 Robert J. Bruss At the end of each year, it is my custom to select the 10 best real estate books out of the hundreds of published that year. This article takes 52 weeks to prepare because I read at least one real est... Clarification on home-sale tax exemption Robert Bruss Q: I am confused about your answer to a home seller who wants to add her mother to the title. You said the mother would be eligible for an Internal Revenue Code 121 principal residence sale tax exempt... Normal wear and tear covers reasonable use of unit Robert Griswold Answers are provided by Robert Griswold, a property manager certified by the Institute of Real Estate Management and author of "Property Management for Dummies"; and lawyers Steven R. Kellman, directo... Transbay planners see new landmark Dan Levy Transbay Terminal planners are viewing their controversial idea for a new San Francisco high-rise as nothing less than the signature building of our time -- much like the Transamerica Pyramid defined ... Holidays evoke true meaning of home Carol Lloyd "I just want to bake a Christmas ham," says my friend, a slight note of desperation rising in her voice. "Is that so much to ask?" She has just confided that because of her husband's 8-year-long, self... HOME SALES FOR 5 BUSINESS DAYS Alameda County Total sales as of Dec. 7 484 Median price $590,000 . Contra Costa County Total sales as of Dec. 7 489 Median price $576,500 . Marin County Total sales as of Nov. 22 81 Median price $808... Perry turns pretty profit on compound Actor buys condo after selling his Beverly Hills home Ruth Ryon Former "Friends" cast member Matthew Perry has racked up his second big deal of the year. The actor, 36, sold his Beverly Hills-area home for $6.1 million. He purchased it in 1999 for $3.2 million. Wh... Real reading -- best of a big bunch Robert J. Bruss "Reverse Mortgages for Dummies" By Sarah Glendon Lyons and John E. Lucas Wiley, $16.99, 249 pages This is the best of several excellent 2005 books about the pros and cons of tax-free reverse mortgage ... ARM indexes CHART: BC: . Last Previous Year Index week week ago 6-month CD 4.62 4.61 2.67 6-month T-bill 4.22 4.18 2.46 1-year TCMS(Y) 4.34 4.35 2.66 3-year TCMS(Y) 4.39 4.42 3.18 1-month LIBOR 4.38 4.37 2.41 6-m... Ignorance no excuse in avoiding foreclosure Kenneth Harney What would happen if you got sick or suffered a drastic loss of household income in 2006, and then fell seriously behind on your mortgage payments? Think about that, even for just a moment, because no... Solar power for the home a hot deal in 2006 Tax incentives can help cut energy bills Jennie L. Phipps If the thought of rising energy bills has you rushing out to buy insulation, hold off a week until after New Year's Day, when the recently enacted Energy Tax Incentives Act of 2005 kicks in. The act i... Real Estate: Neighborhood Homes Sold . Sunday, December 25, 2005 Back to... Help | Contact us | Privacy ™ ©2005 Hearst Communications Inc. --