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Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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Ginnie Mae: Your Path to Homeownership -- -- Glossary of Terms Select the first letter of the word from the list below to jump to the appropriate section of the glossary. A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z - A - abstract of title A historical summary provided by a title insurance company of all records affecting the title to a property. acceleration clause A clause that allows a lender to declare the entire outstanding balance of a loan immediately due and payable should a borrower violate specific loan provisions or default on the loan. adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) A variable or flexible rate mortgage with an interest rate that varies according to the financial index it is based upon. To limit the borrower's risk, the ARM may have a payment or rate cap. See also: cap . amenities Features of your home that fit your preferences and can increase the value of your property. Some examples include the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, or vicinity to public transportation. amortization The liquidation of a debt by regular, usually monthly, installments of principal and interest. An amortization schedule is a table showing the payment amount, interest, principal and unpaid balance for the entire term of the loan. annual cap See: cap . annual percentage rate (A.P.R.) The actual interest rate, taking into account points and other finance charges, for the projected life of a mortgage. Disclosure of APR is required by the Truth-in-Lending Law and allows borrowers to compare the actual costs of different mortgage loans. appraisal An estimate of a property's value as of a given date, determined by a qualified professional appraiser. The value may be based on replacement cost, the sales of comparable properties or the property's income-producing ability. appreciation A property's increase in value due to inflation or economic factors. A.P.R. See: annual percentage rate . ARM See: adjustable rate mortgage . assessment Charges levied against a property for tax purposes or to pay for municipal or association improvements such as curbs, sewers, or grounds maintenance. assignment The transfer of a contract or a right to buy property at given rates and terms from a mortgagee to another person. assumption An agreement between a buyer and a seller, requiring lender approval, where the buyer takes over the payments for a mortgage and accepts the liability. Assuming a loan can be advantageous for a buyer because there are no closing costs and the loan's interest rate may be lower than current market rates. Depending on what is in the mortgage or deed of trust, the lender may raise the interest rate, require the buyer to qualify for the mortgage, or not permit the buyer to assume the loan at all. Go to Top - B - balloon mortgage Mortgage with a final lump sum payment that is greater than preceding payments and pays the loan in full. biweekly mortgage A loan requiring payments of principal and interest at two-week intervals. This type of loan amortizes much faster than monthly payment loans. The payment for a biweekly mortgage is half what a monthly payment would be. bond A certificate serving as security for payment of a debt. Bonds backed by mortgage loans are pooled together and sold in the secondary market . bridge loan A loan to "bridge" the gap between the termination of one mortgage and the beginning of another, such as when a borrower purchases a new home before receiving cash proceeds from the sale of a prior home. Also known as a swing loan. broker An intermediary between the borrower and the lender. The broker may represent several lending sources and charges a fee or commission for services. buy-down A type of mortgage which requires the buyer to pay additional discount points or make a substantial down payment in return for a below market interest rate. Another form of a buy-down is one in which the seller offers 3-2-1 interest payment plans or pays closing costs such as the origination fee. During times of high interest rates buy-downs may induce buyers to purchase property they might otherwise not have purchased. Go to Top - C - cap A limit in how much an adjustable rate mortgage's monthly payment or interest rate can increase. A cap is meant to protect the borrower from large increases and may be a payment cap, an interest cap, a life-of-loan cap or an annual cap. A payment cap is a limit on the monthly payment. An interest cap is a limit on the amount of the interest rate. A life-of-loan cap restricts the amount the interest rate can increase over the entire term of the loan. An annual cap limits the amount the interest rate can increase over a twelve-month period. certificate of reasonable value (CRV) A Veterans Administration appraisal that establishes the maximum VA mortgage loan amount for a specified property. certificate of title A document rendering an opinion on the status of a property's title based on public records. closed-end mortgage A mortgage principal amount that is fixed and cannot be increased during the life of the loan. See also: open-end mortgage . closing costs Costs payable by both seller and buyer at the time of settlement, when the purchase of a property is finalized. These costs can be up to ten percent of the mortgage amount and usually include but are not limited to the following: Fees Paid to the Lender Fees Paid in Advance Other Charges O rigination fee D iscount points C redit report fee A ppraisal fee A ssumption fee if loan is assumed I nterest from the closing date to the beginning of the 1st payment H azard insurance premium M ortgage insurance premium T itle search and title insurance S ales commissions L egal and recording fees I nspection and survey fees P roperty taxes and other adjustments P rocessing and document preparation fees cloud A claim to the title of a property that, if valid, would prevent a purchaser from obtaining a clear title. collateral Something of value pledged as security for a loan. In mortgage lending the property itself serves as collateral for a mortgage loan. commitment fee A fee charged when a) an agreement is reached between a lender and a borrower for a loan at a specific rate and points and b) the lender guarantees to lock in that rate. co-mortgagor One who is individually and jointly obligated to repay a mortgage loan and shares ownership of the property with one or more borrowers. See also: co-signer . condominium An individually owned unit within a multi-unit building where others or the Condominium Owners Association share ownership of common areas such as grounds, parking facilities and tennis courts. conforming loan A loan that conforms to Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) or Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC) guidelines. See also: non-conforming loan . construction loan A short-term loan financing improvements to real estate, such as the building of a new home. The lender advances funds to the borrower as needed while construction progresses. Upon completion of the construction the borrower must obtain permanent financing or repay the construction loan in full. consumer handbook on adjustable rate mortgages (C.H.A.R.M.) A disclosure required by the federal government to be given to any borrower applying for an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). conventional loan A mortgage loan that is not insured, guaranteed or funded by the Veterans Administration (VA), the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or Rural Economic Community Development (RECD) (formerly Farmers Home Administration). convertible mortgage An adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) that allows a borrower to switch to a fixed-rate mortgage at a specified point in the loan term. co-signer A person who is obligated to repay a mortgage loan should the borrower default but who does not share ownership in the property. See also: co-mortgagor . covenants Rules and restrictions governing the use of property. CRV See: certificate of reasonable value . curtailments The borrower's privilege to make payments on a loan's principal before they are due. Paying off a mortgage before it is due may incur a penalty if so specified in the mortgage's prepayment clause. Go to Top - D - debt Money owed to repay someone. debt-to-income ratio The ratio between a borrower's monthly payment obligations divided by his or her net effective income (FHA or VA loans) or gross monthly income (conventional loans). deed The legal document that transfers the ownership of real property from one party to another. deed of trust A document, used in many states in place of a mortgage , held by a trustee pending repayment of the loan. The advantage of a deed of trust is that the trustee does not have to go to court to proceed with foreclosure should the borrower default on the loan. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) The U.S. government agency that administers FHA, GNMA and other housing programs. discount points A percentage of the loan amount paid to the lender to buy down the interest rate. Each point is one percent of the loan amount; for example, two points on a $100,000 mortgage is $2,000. down payment The difference between the purchase price and mortgage amount. The down payment becomes the property equity. Typically it comes from cash savings, but it can also be a gift that is not to be repaid or a borrowed amount secured by assets. due-on-sale A clause in a mortgage or deed of trust allowing a lender to require immediate payment of the balance of the loan if the property is sold (subject to the terms of the security instrument). duplex A dwelling divided into two units. Go to Top - E - earnest money A deposit in the form of cash or a note given to a seller by a buyer as good faith assurance that the buyer intends to go through with the purchase of a property. easement The right one party has in regard to the property of another, such as the right of a public utility company to lay lines. Equal Credit Opportunity Act A federal law prohibiting lenders and other creditors from discrimination based on race, color, sex, religion, national origin, age, marital status, receipt of public assistance or because an applicant has exercised his or her rights under the Consumer Credit Protection Act. equity The value of a property beyond any liens against it. Also referred to as owner's interest. escape clause A provision allowing one party or more to cancel all or part of the contract if certain events fail to happen, such as the ability of the buyer to obtain financing within a specified period. escrow Money placed with a third party for safekeeping either for final closing on a property or for payment of taxes and insurance throughout the year. Go to Top - F - fair market value The price a property can realistically sell for, based upon comparable selling prices of other properties in the same area. Fannie Mae Nickname for Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) . Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC or Freddie Mac) A quasi-governmental, federally-sponsored organization that acts as a secondary market investor to buy and sell mortgage loans. FHLMC sets many of the guidelines for conventional mortgage loans, as does FNMA. Federal Housing Administration (FHA) An agency within the Department of Housing and Urban Development that sets underwriting standards and insures residential mortgage loans made by private lenders. One of FHA's objectives is to help make affordable mortgages available to homeowners with low or moderate income. FHA loans may be high loan-to-value, and they are limited by loan amount. FHA mortgage insurance requires a fee of 1.5 percent of the loan amount to be paid at closing, as well as an annual fee of 0.5 percent of the loan amount added to each monthly payment. Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA or Fannie Mae) A private corporation that acts as a secondary market investor to buy and sell mortgage loans. FNMA sets many of the guidelines for conventional mortgage loans, as does FHLMC. The major purpose of this organization is to make mortgage money more affordable and more available. fee simple The maximum form of ownership, with the right to occupy a property and sell it to a buyer at any time. Upon the death of the owner, the property goes to the owner's designated heirs. Also known as fee absolute . FHA See: Federal Housing Administration . fifteen-year mortgage A loan with a term of 15 years. Although the monthly payment on a 15-year mortgage is higher than that of a 30-year mortgage, the amount of interest paid over the life of the loan is substantially less. fixed-rate mortgage A mortgage whose rate remains constant throughout the life of the mortgage. flood insurance A form of insurance that protects the owner of the insured property against losses stemming from flood damage. The Federal Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973 requires that federally-regulated lenders determine if real estate to be used to secure a loan is located in a Specially Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). If the property is located in a SFHA area, the borrower must obtain and maintain flood insurance on the property. Most insurance agents can assist in obtaining flood insurance. FNMA See: Federal National Mortgage Association . Freddie Mac Nickname for Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC) . Go to Top - G - gift A sum of money, including amounts from a relative or a grant from the borrower's employer, a municipality, non-profit religious organization, or non-profit community organization that does not have to be repaid. Ginnie Mae Nickname for Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) . good faith estimate The estimate on closing costs and monthly mortgage payments provided by a lender to the homebuyer within 3 days of applying for a loan. Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA or Ginnie Mae) A government organization that participates in the secondary market , securitizing pools of FHA, VA, and RHS loans. graduated payment mortgage (GPM) A fixed-interest loan with lower payments in the early years than in the later years. The amount of the payment gradually increases over a period of time and then levels off at a payment sufficient to pay off the loan over the remaining amortization period. Go to Top - H - hazard insurance A form of insurance that protects the owner of the insured property against losses from physical damage such as fire and tornadoes. Mortgage lenders often require a borrower to maintain an amount of hazard insurance on the property that is equal at least to the amount of the mortgage loan. home equity loan A mortgage on the borrower's principal residence, usually for the purpose of making home improvements or debt consolidation. home inspection A thorough review of the physical aspects and condition of a home by a professional home inspector. This inspection should be completed prior to closing so that any repairs or changes can be completed before the transfer of the home is completed. homeowners insurance A form of insurance that protects the owner of the insured property against loss from theft, liability and most common disasters. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) The U.S. government agency that administers FHA, GNMA and other housing programs. housing affordability index An index that indicates what proportion of homebuyers can afford to buy an average-priced home in specified areas. The most well known housing affordability index is published by the National Association of Realtors. housing expenses-to-income ratio See: debt-to-income ratio . HUD See: Housing and Urban Development . Go to Top - I - income approach to value A method used by real estate appraisers to predict a property's anticipated future income. Income property includes shopping centers, hotels, motels, restaurants, apartment buildings, office space, etc. income-to-debt ratio See: debt-to-income ratio . index A published interest rate compiled from other indicators such as U.S. Treasury bills or the monthly average interest rate on loans closed by savings and loan organizations. Mortgage lenders use the index figure to establish rates on adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). insurance As a part of PITI, the amount of the monthly mortgage payment that does not include the principal, interest, and taxes. Also see: homeowners insurance . interest The amount of the entire mortgage loan which does not include the principal. Also, as a part of PITI, the amount of the monthly mortgage payment which does not include the principal, taxes, and insurance. interest cap See: cap interest rate The simple interest rate, stated as a percentage, charged by a lender on the principal amount of borrowed money. See also: Annual Percentage Rate . Go to Top - J - joint tenancy See: tenancy . jumbo loan A nonconforming loan that is larger than the limits set by the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) or Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC) guidelines. Go to Top - K - key lot Real estate deemed highly valuable because of its location. Go to Top - L - lien A claim against a property for the payment of a debt. A mortgage is a lien; other types of liens a property might have include a tax lien for overdue taxes or a mechanic's lien for unpaid debt to a subcontractor. life-of-loan cap See: cap . liquidity The ease with which an asset can be converted into cash. loan discount See: points . loan origination fee See: origination fee . loan-to-value ratio (LTV) The relationship, expressed as a percentage, between the amount of the proposed loan and a property's appraised value. For example, a $75,000 loan on a property appraised at $100,000 is a 75% loan-to-value ratio. lock-in The guaranty of a specific interest rate and/or points for a specific period of time. Some lenders will charge a fee for locking in an interest rate. Go to Top - M - maintenance costs The cost of the upkeep of the house. These costs may be minor in cost and nature (replacing washers in the faucets) or major in cost and nature (new heating system or a new roof) and can apply to either the interior or exterior of the house. margin The amount a lender adds to the index of an adjustable rate mortgage to establish an adjusted interest rate. For example, a margin of 1.50 added to a 7 percent index establishes an adjusted interest rate of 8.50 percent. market value The price a property can realistically sell for, based upon comparable selling prices of other properties in the same geographical area. modification A change in the terms of the mortgage note, such as a reduction in the interest rate or a change in maturity date. mortgage A legal instrument in which property serves as security for the repayment of a loan. In some states, a deed of trust is used rather than a mortgage. mortgage banker A lender that originates, closes, services and sells mortgage loans to the secondary market . mortgage broker An intermediary between a borrower and a lender. A mortgage broker's expertise lies in helping borrowers find financing that they might not otherwise find themselves. mortgage insurance Money paid to insure the lender against loss due to foreclosure or loan default. Mortgage insurance is required on conventional loans with less than a 20 percent down payment. FHA mortgage insurance requires a payment of 1.5 percent of the loan amount to be paid at closing, as well as an annual fee of 0.5 percent of the loan amount added to each monthly payment. mortgage interest The interest rate charge for borrowing the money for the mortgage. It is used to calculate the interest payment on the mortgage each month. mortgage term The length of time that a mortgage is scheduled to exist. Example: a 30-year mortgage term is for 30 years. mortgagee The lender. mortgagor The borrower. Go to Top - N - negative amortization A situation in which a borrower is paying less interest than what is actually being charged for a mortgage loan. The unpaid interest is added to the loan's principal. The borrower may end up owing more than the original amount of the mortgage. non-assumption clause In a mortgage contract, a statement that prohibits a new buyer from assuming a mortgage loan without the approval of the lender. non-conforming loan A loan that does not conform to Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) or Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC) guidelines. Jumbo loans are nonconforming. See also: conforming loan . note A signed document that acknowledges a debt and shows the borrower is obligated to pay it. Go to Top - O - open-end mortgage A mortgage allowing the borrower to receive advances of principal from the lender during the life of the loan. See also: closed-end mortgage . origination fee The amount charged by a lender to originate and close a mortgage loan. Origination fees are usually expressed in points . Go to Top - P - payment cap See: cap . P&I Abbreviation for principal and interest. PITI Abbreviation for p rincipal, i nterest, t axes and i nsurance. PITIO Abbreviation for p rincipal, i nterest, t axes, i nsurance and o ther monthly non-housing costs. points Charges levied by the lender based on the loan amount. Each point equals one percent of the loan amount; for example, two points on a $100,000 mortgage equals $2,000. Discount points are used to buy down the interest rate. Points can also include a loan origination fee, which is usually one point. pre-qualification Tentative establishment of a borrower's qualification for a mortgage loan amount of a specific range, based on the borrower's assets, debts, income, employment status and credit history. prime rate The interest rate commercial banks charge their most creditworthy customers. principal The amount of the entire mortgage loan, not counting interest. Also, as a part of PITI, the amount of the monthly mortgage payment which does not include the interest, insurance, and taxes. private mortgage insurance (PMI) See: mortgage insurance . property appraisal See: appraisal . property tax The amount which the state and/or locality assesses as a tax on a piece of property. prorate To proportionally divide amounts owed by the buyer and the seller at closing. Go to Top - Q - qualification As determined by a lender, the ability of the borrower to repay a mortgage loan based on the borrower's credit history, employment status, assets, debts and income. Go to Top - R - rate cap See: cap . RESPA Abbreviation for the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act. This act allows consumers to review settlement costs at application and once again prior to closing. reverse annuity mortgage A type of mortgage loan in which the lender makes periodic payments to the borrower. The borrower's equity in the home is used as security for the loan. RHCDS Rural Housing and Community Service right of first refusal The right to purchase a property under conditions and terms made by another buyer and accepted by the seller. right of rescission The right to back out of a transaction, given automatically by law to the borrower in a real estate purchase transaction. When a borrower's principal dwelling is going to secure a loan, the borrower has three business days following signing of the loan documents to rescind or cancel the transaction. Any and all money paid by the borrower must be refunded upon rescission. The right to rescind does not apply to loans to purchase real estate or to refinance a loan under the same terms and conditions where no additional funds will be added to the existing loan. rollover The process by which a construction loan becomes a mortgage. At the end of the construction loan period, the borrower's file is delivered to Bank One Mortgage Loan Servicing Dept. Prior to delivery, CLD contacts the borrower and obtains funds for the tax and insurance escrows, a final title policy and homeowner's policy. This process is called a rollover. Rural Housing and Community Development Service A federal agency that administers mortgage loans for buyers in rural areas. Go to Top - S - second mortgage A loan that is junior to a primary or first mortgage and often has a higher interest rate and a shorter term. secondary market A market comprising investors like GNMA, FHLMC and FNMA, who buy large numbers of mortgages from the primary lenders and resell them to other investors. servicing The responsibility of collecting monthly mortgage payments and properly crediting them to the principal, taxes and insurance, as well as keeping the borrower informed of any changes in the status of the loan. settlement costs See: closing costs . survey A physical measurement of property done by a registered professional showing the dimensions and location of any buildings as well as easements, rights of way, roads, etc. Go to Top - T - tax deed A written document conveying title to property repossessed by the government due to default on tax payments. tax savings The deduction a taxpayer can take on their tax form for interest paid on a home mortgage. The amount of money that the homeowner is not required to pay the government in taxes because he or she owns a home. taxes As a part of PITI, the amount of the monthly mortgage payment which does not include the principal, interest, and insurance. tenancy joint tenancy - equal ownership of property by two or more parties, each with the right of survivorship. tenancy by the entireties - ownership of property only between husband and wife in which neither can sell without the consent of the other and the property is owned by the survivor in the event of death of either party. tenancy in common - equal ownership of property by two or more parties without the right of survivorship. tenancy in severalty - ownership of property by one legal entity or a sole party. tenancy at will - a license to use or occupy a property at the will of the owner. title A formal document establishing ownership of property. title insurance A policy issued by a title insurance company insuring the purchaser against any losses resulting from errors in the title search. The cost of title insurance may be paid for by the buyer, the seller or both. trust deed See: deed of trust . Truth In Lending Act The Truth In Lending Act requires lenders to disclose the Annual Percentage Rate and other associated costs to homebuyers within three working days of the loan application. Go to Top - U - underwriter A professional who approves or denies a loan to a potential homebuyer based on the homebuyer's credit history, employment status, assets, debts and other factors such as loan guidelines. Uniform Settlement Statement A standard document prescribed by the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act containing information for closing which must be supplied to both buyer and seller. utility costs Periodic housing costs for water, electricity, natural gas, heating oil, etc. Go to Top - V - VA loan See: Veterans Administration . variable rate mortgage (VRM) See: adjustable rate mortgage . Veterans Administration (VA) The federal agency responsible for the VA loan guaranty program as well as other services for eligible veterans. In general, qualified veterans can apply for home loans with no down payment and a funding fee of 1 percent of the loan amount. Go to Top - W - walk-through An inspection of a property by the prospective buyer prior to closing on a mortgage. warranty deed A document protecting a homebuyer against any and all claims to the property. Go to Top - X - No entries for "X". Go to Top - Y - yield The rate of earnings from an investment. Go to Top - Z - zoning The ability of local governments to specify the use of private property in order to control development within designated areas of land. For example, some areas of a neighborhood may be designated only for residential use and others for commercial use such as stores, gas stations, etc. Go to Top -- PRIVACY POLICY HOME | ABOUT GINNIE MAE | FOR ISSUERS | FOR INVESTORS HOMEOWNERSHIP GUIDE AND CALCULATORS | HOMEZONE (KIDS' SITE)
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BuyMyself - Canale, IRED Attitude & News Home Directories Int'l Realty US Realty BuyMyself Choosing A Real Estate Agent By Stephen M. Canale, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA There's a common saying in the real estate industry regarding the vast number of agents in the business: "If you don't have any friends who are agents, then you probably don't have any friends at all." With so many agent out there, how can you make an intelligent decision? Do you choose a friend, neighbor or coworker? Should you work with an agent at a large firm, a small firm, a franchise or an independent? While there's an exception to every rule, and every marketplace has its own nuances, here are some solid rules to apply when you want the best representation to protect your interests. Demand Experience The real estate profession is plagued by high turnover. This creates a workforce that is made up of many newcomers. While there are brand new agents with good intentions, why trust one of the largest investment you'll ever buy or sell to someone without experience? Always look for an agent with at least two years of experience. Anyone still in the business after two years has probably learned at least the fundamentals of real estate. Look for Commitment Another problem we have in the industry is a large number of part time and recreational salespeople. These folks have either retired from some other career, work in real estate seasonally or are earning a second income for the family and honestly don't need to work full time. No matter how long they have been in real estate, their lack of full-time commitment makes it impossible for them to keep up with the vast changes in law, marketing and business practices that are occurring in the profession today. If an agent isn't working at least thirty hours a week, fifty weeks a year, look for someone else. Consider Education In the majority of states, the requirements for real estate licensing are substantially less than those for cutting hair. In Michigan, for example, all that is required is a forty-hour class and a multiple choice test. You cannot rely on licensing to indicate competence. And, unfortunately, many agent's real estate education ends with their pre-license education. While there are numerous advanced real estate education courses available, the only technical and competence based program available nationwide is the Graduate, REALTORS® Institute (GRI) series, which is administered under the direction of the National Association of REALTORS®. A REALTOR® who completes the fifteen eight-hour modules, and passes examinations, may then use the designation of GRI. While only 15%-20% of agents have earned this accreditation, it should not be too difficult finding a GRI in your marketplace as they will commonly print the designation behind their name in advertising as well as on letterhead and business cards. Conduct Interviews Before you hire an agent to help you buy or sell a home, you should interview at least three agents in person. In order to do this, first get recommendations from friends, family and neighbors. Then look on the web, in homes magazines and the local newspaper to see what kind of marketing the various companies are doing in your area and call a few that impress you. Then make brief fact-finding calls to determine which of the agents on your list are full time, experienced and either hold the GRI designation or are at least working aggressively toward it. You will probably need to call ten to fifteen agents in order to find three that are worth interviewing. The interview itself need not be a formal one. It is simply an opportunity for you to meet the candidate and explain your needs; and to determine whether you would be comfortable working with them. Ask whatever questions you like, or simply explain your goals and listen carefully to what they propose to do for you in meeting your needs. The decision If you follow the suggestions above, you will find that there are excellent agents working for firms both large and small; both franchised and independent. Thus, the real decision must be made based on the competency of the individual agent you will be working with on a day-to-day basis. Stephen M. Canale is President, Broker/Instructor of Acclaim Residential Marketing Ann Arbor, Michigan | IRED Home | Search IRED | © 1995-2005 IRED.Com, Inc All Rights Reserved
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