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Towards Liberty International Society for Individual Liberty > Don't Get Stuck Paying "Zombie" Debt – Towards Liberty – A commentary on current events by Jarret Wollstein The Coming Real Estate Collapse – 05-24-05 – As real estate prices in much of the U.S. continues to soar, evidence is growing that both commercial and residential real estate is greatly over-priced in many of the country's hottest markets – including New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., Miami, and much of California. One clear indication that real estate is overpriced is that rents are now a fraction of mortgage payments, and are continuing to fall in terms of real dollars. For instance, Forbes reports that cash return on income-producing real estate has fallen from 9% a few years ago, to just 5% to 7% now, and is likely to go lower. You can clearly see why rents are falling in overheated markets like California's Silicon Valley. In the San Francisco-San Jos corridor, there is currently over 33 million square feet of un-rented (and in many cases never occupied) commercial space. Last year, just 65 thousand square feet of this enormous inventory was rented. At that rate, it will take over 507 years to rent all unoccupied commercial real estate in Silicon Valley. Since most investors can't wait over half a millennium for returns on their capital, what's more likely is that commercial real estate prices in this "hot market" will soon fall like a rock. Another indication that real estate is poised for a fall, that fewer and fewer people can afford today's astronomically-priced houses. For instance, in California – where ordinary 2,000 square foot, 3-bedroom homes are going for $500,000 to $2,000,000+ – less than one family in six now qualifies to repurchase their own house. Another indications that real estate is ready for a fall: Of 362 U.S. metropolitan areas, about 15% are experiencing a housing "boom" – a three-year, inflation adjusted price gain of 30% or more – according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That's the highest number of boom markets ever recorded in the 30 years that they have been tracked. In Americas hottest real estate markets – including the big cities in New York, Florida and California – housing prices went up by 15% to 35% in the past year alone. This is clearly unsustainable. No matter how low interest rates are and no matter how many schemes George Bush comes up with for an "ownership society," it's clear that we are rapidly reaching the point when hardly anyone can afford to buy a new house in a hot real estate market, without putting their financial future in jeopardy. So what's propping up the real estate bubble, and causing housing prices to go ever-higher, even as rents fall and commercial landlords face enormous vacancy rates? Besides artificially low interest rates, the answer, in a word, is speculation. Up to one residence in three in California is now purchased not to live in, but for resale, according to the San Francisco Chronicle . The comparable figure may be as high as one property in two in the Las Vegas area. In downtown Miami, 80% of approximately 35,000 new condos now under construction or just completed, are owned by investors – not people who actually plan on living in them – according to MoneyNews.com. Call it the triumph of delusion over reality. I can't tell you how many people have told me that real estate price "can't fall, because if they did, they would be bankrupt." In other words, because they want prices to stay up, they must stay up. If you believe that, there is a nice three-bedroom fixer-upper on a dirt lot, and on the edge of an eroding cliff, in Pacifica, California, I'd like to sell you for just $2.5 million. Buy this bargain now, before the price really goes up! (This is a real example.) In the current frenzied real market, self-delusion is rampant. In Florida's red-hot real estate market, one Miami realtor recently told the New York Times , "South Florida is working off a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past." That's precisely what executives of dot coms told investors to justify their astronomical stock prices, just before the collapse – which triggered the destruction of over $3 trillion in stock value. Unfortunately, for many overextended home owners, property prices aren't immune to the laws of economics. Property prices can and do fall in America, as witnessed by the bear markets of 1974-75, 1980-82 and 1990-92. A personal example: One Northern California home owner I know bought his 2,000 sq. ft. house for $750,000 in 1989. In 1992, he was couldn't get $450,000 for his property, and was forced to declare bankruptcy after he lost his job. Millions of overextended American families with "interest only" and adjustable rate mortgages will likely find themselves in the same boat, when mortgage interest rates edge up above 7% or 8% – which is likely by the end of this year. (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that we can expect at least a 2.25% increase in interest rates in 2005, on top of the 2% increase in 2004.) The brutal financial reality is that a mere 2% rise in mortgage rates, can increase ARM payments by as much as 40% – an unsustainable burden for families living on the edge. One way or another, at best , the U.S. real estate bubble has 1 to 2 more years to run before it collapses. If you or your children are among those living in overpriced homes you can barely afford, NOW is the time to sell, when the market is at or near its peak, and before prices drop by 30% or more – and they find themselves living in a Motel 6 or in your basement. To minimize taxes on the profits, reinvest in a home in a small town or rural area where prices arent so absurd, and bank the rest. Please stay in touch! Add yourself to our e-mail list. Two times per month we send an update on the activities of our members and new features at ISIL.org. Simply enter your e-mail address here and click the button. You can easily remove yourself (unsubscribe) at any time. E-mail us at isil@isil.org if you have any personal questions or comments. E-mail address: Subscribe Unsubscribe
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New York New Jersey Connecticut Real Estate / homes for sale / mortgage / refinance / home equity ® , requesting a mortgage, apartment locating services and moving resources." Real Estate .com - New York real estate listings, new homes for sale, find a REALTOR ® or request a mortgage, refinance or home equity loan. Find a REALTOR ® in New York and Receive a Gift Card Worth Up To $1,000 or more. OR Find a Builder in New York with iNest and Get 1% Cash Back! You may also want to: Get Pre-Qualified through LendingTree Get Your Credit Report Search Homes in New York You may also want to: Use Our FREE Personal Home Buying Guide Find out what the house in New York isworth, it's FREE. Get a Mortgage through LendingTree Related articles: Negotiating Strategies Understanding Contractsand Contingencies Find a Home Inspector in New York Find a Mover in New York Related article: Understand a Home Appraisal FREE Utilities Setup in New York Receive Competitive Quotes for Homeowners' Insurance in New York Type: Homes, The Real Estate Book Additional Home Listings New Construction Homes Foreclosure Homes State or Province: Please Choose Alberta, AB Alaska, AK Alabama, AL Arkansas, AR Arizona, AZ British Columbia, BC California, CA Colorado, CO Connecticut, CT District of Columbia, DC Delaware, DE Florida, FL Georgia, GA Hawaii, HI Iowa, IA Idaho, ID Illinois, IL Indiana, IN Kansas, KS Kentucky, KY Louisiana, LA Massachusetts, MA Manitoba, MB Maryland, MD Maine, ME Michigan, MI Minnesota, MN Missouri, MO Mississippi, MS Montana, MT New Brunswick, NB North Carolina, NC North Dakota, ND Nebraska, NE New Hampshire, NH New Jersey, NJ New Mexico, NM Nova Scotia, NS Nevada, NV New York, NY Ohio, OH Oklahoma, OK Ontario, ON Oregon, OR Pennsylvania, PA Rhode Island, RI South Carolina, SC South Dakota, SD Tennessee, TN Texas, TX Utah, UT Virginia, VA Vermont, VT Washington, WA Wisconsin, WI West Virginia, WV Wyoming, WY City: Select a State or Zip: Price Range: Any $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $325,000 $350,000 $375,000 $400,000 $425,000 $450,000 $475,000 $500,000 $525,000 $550,000 $575,000 $600,000 $625,000 $650,000 $675,000 $700,000 $725,000 $750,000 $775,000 $800,000 $825,000 $850,000 $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 $950,000 $975,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 to Any $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $325,000 $350,000 $375,000 $400,000 $425,000 $450,000 $475,000 $500,000 $525,000 $550,000 $575,000 $600,000 $625,000 $650,000 $675,000 $700,000 $725,000 $750,000 $775,000 $800,000 $825,000 $850,000 $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 $950,000 $975,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 Bedrooms: Any 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Baths: Any 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Please note: Not all real estate professionals participate in the "Find a REALTOR ® " program, which you must use in order to receive The Home Depot ® incentive. 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Colorado HomeFinder | Greeley Real Estate, Search Greeley Homes for Sale in the MLS Call 800.231.9153 | Contact Us If you already have an account, sign in here Greeley Colorado Real Estate - find out first about the newest Greeley real estate listings! You learn about Greeley homes for sale the day they hit the market - before other buyers. Automated HomeAlert emails you new listings that fit your personal home search criteria and gives you access to all the Greeley Colorado real estate listings. It's easy - Just submit your email address and home search criteria. Your email is not shared or sold to anyone. You incur no obligation or cost for this free Greeley real estate service. Our Privacy Policy: We respect your privacy. All information provided is strictly confidential and you can unsubscribe at any time. Colorado HomeFinder will never sell or share your information with any outside parties. Click here to review our Privacy Policy . 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MONEY Magazine: Buying property with family or friends - Oct. 21, 2005 Web CNN/Money Home News Markets Technology Commentary Personal Finance Autos Real Estate Real Estate SAVE | EMAIL | PRINT | SUBSCRIBE TO MONEY | Buying property with family or friends Is it a blessing or a curse? The right due diligence makes all the difference. October 21, 2005: 4:10 PM EDT By Gerri Willis , MONEY Magazine Top things to know Are you ready? Lining up cash Picking a team The hunt Closing the deal For sellers only NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - John D. Rockefeller once said that "a friendship founded on business...is a good deal better than a business founded on friendship." He might have added: "Except in real estate." That's because some of the most successful real estate companies have started as alliances of friends and family. Orange County, Calif. megadeveloper the Irvine Company was created in the 19th century by James Irvine and his son. Donald Trump's dad Fred taught his Apprentice plenty about the family biz. Chicago real estate guru Sam Zell credits much of his success to his longtime partnership with his college pal, the late Robert Lurie. (Old John D.'s spawn didn't fare too badly either with a family venture in the 1930s called Rockefeller Center.) To be sure, if you're just starting a real estate project, you'll find it difficult to resist the temptation to bring in friends and family as partners and investors. After all, those are the people you know and probably trust the most. But how do you avoid the seemingly inevitable "Dallas"-style dramas? 1. Trust but verify Even if she's your sister or cousin, you should investigate a would-be partner's finances before doing business with her. Handy Web sites like Intelius.com and Public-records-now.com can help you unearth basic background info like tax liens or bankruptcy filings. Ask her to share a copy of her latest credit report. Talk to her former business associates. To avoid ill will, tell her from the get-go that you'll be prying -- and invite her to do the same with your background. If she balks, calmly explain that such precautions will only make for a stronger team, suggests Nicole McAllister of the University of Southern California's Lusk Center for Real Estate. "Remember, this is business." 2. Share a vision It's critical that you and your partners agree to common goals before you buy. Will you renovate that apartment house to a level that would make a Hyatt Regency manager blush? Or do you want to rent the property "as is"? Is the goal long-term cash flow or cashing out quickly? Many partnerships founder on these simple points. 3. Get it in writing Lawyers and their contracts can't prevent every calamity, but a written agreement -- think of it as a prenup before your partnership marriage -- can prevent headaches (and heartaches) for you and the family or friends who invest with you. At the very least, an operating agreement will force you to plan for the unexpected, including death, divorce or a change of mind. You must also spell out exactly what happens if one of your partners wants to sell. Establishing a contingency plan "gets everything on the table," says Philip Davis, a C.P.A. and principal at accounting firm Kauffman & Davis in Boston. "It's like going to a therapist." 4. Hire strangers Unbiased advice is essential for all involved. Brooklyn real estate broker Tammy Shaw knows plenty about the business, but she says she'd never have bought her brownstone with family without professionals at her side. "Build a team ahead of time -- an attorney, mortgage broker or banker, and contractor," she suggests. "They have to be people all of you feel comfortable with." 5. Be an open book Garry Klein, co-founder of real estate fund Highpoint Equities in Scarsdale, N.Y., knows both the hazards and huzzahs of working with friends and family. He started buying real estate nearly a decade ago with his buddy Jeff Gault; family members have been a big source of capital ever since. "The upside is that these people know you and know what you're about; they cut you more slack," he says. "The downside is these are people you're going to see at Thanksgiving dinner." Klein shares thorough, detailed investment results every six months. Ultimately, success depends on your own ability to find good deals and execute. Friends and family can make a newcomer feel more comfortable, but you'll need to adopt professional practices for your effort to really pay off. ____________________ Gerri Willis is host of CNN's Open House. Write her at real_assets@moneymail.com . For more articles on Real Estate, subscribe to MONEY Magazine . The Hot List Most profitable renovations How risky is your 401(k)? Big new tax credits for hybrid cars More Real Estate How to buy and build on rural land Most overvalued housing markets When booms go bust... contact us | magazine customer service | site map | glossary | RSS | press room OTHER NEWS: CNN | SI | Fortune | Business2.0 = Money subscribers = Premium content -- * - Time reflects local markets trading time. † - Intraday data is at least 15-minutes delayed. Disclaimer © 2005 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. A Time Warner Company ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms under which this service is provided to you. privacy policy Reprints of site stories are available. Top Stories Most overvalued housing markets Risks to the economy in 2006 Which was the worst ad of all in 2005? After the ride, a rest Hilton brands reunite after 40 years YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS Follow the news that matters to you. Create your own alert to be notified on topics you're interested in. Or, visit Popular Alerts for suggestions. Manage alerts | What is this?
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Find Real Estate, Rentals, New Houses, Real Estate Agents and Mortgages on Yahoo! Real Estate Find Real Estate, Rentals, New Houses, Real Estate Agents and Mortgages Choose Location Home Homes for Sale Apartments for Rent Home Loans Moving & Insurance Tools My Real Estate Hurricane Katrina Resources Features Classifieds Sell Your Home Rent Your Apartment Home Loans Mortgage Rates Online Rate Quotes Refinance Loans & Rates Home Equity Loans & Rates Free Credit Reports Resources Find & Compare REALTORS Find a Mover Insurance Homeowner's Insurance Renter's Insurance Tools What's My Home Worth? Research Neighborhoods Free School Reports Foreclosure Center Home Service Center Commercial Real Estate List Commercial Property National Mortgage Rates Thu Dec 29 Mtg Loan Rate APR 30-yr Fixed: 5.70% 5.88% 15-yr Fixed: 5.27% 5.57% 1-yr ARM: 4.53% 6.89% See Local Mortgage Rates Provided by Bankrate.com Neighborhood Profile Research neighborhoods nationwide! City, State, or Zip: Real Estate Listings Browse by City New! Home Loans Center - Find, Compare, & Graph Rates Find a Home Find a Rental City & State, or Zip: Price Range: $0 $30,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $650,000 $750,000 $850,000 $1 million $1.25 million $1.5 million $1.75 million $2 million $2.25 million $2.75 million $3 million $3.5 million $4 million $4.5 million $5 million $6 million $8 million $10 million to No limit $30,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $650,000 $750,000 $850,000 $1 million $1.25 million $1.5 million $1.75 million $2 million $2.25 million $2.75 million $3 million $3.5 million $4 million $4.5 million $5 million $6 million $8 million $10 million Beds: Any 1+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Baths: Any 1+ 1 1/2+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ Search For: Existing Homes Yahoo! Classifieds New Homes Foreclosures Advanced Search Search Commercial Real Estate Mortgage Payments Calculate your biweekly & monthly payment for different loan amounts, interest rates and amortization terms. Loan Amount: $ Term (years): Interest Rate: % Show table?: Yes No See More Loan Calculators Sponsored Links New Homes and Home Builders - iNest iNest's guide to new homes and home builders in 19 states: AZ, CO, FL, GA, IL, IN, MD, MI, MN, NC, NM, NV, OH, SC, TN, TX, VA, UT and WI. Save 1% on your new home with a cash back coupon. www.inest.com What's Your Home Worth? Thinking of selling your home? Wonder how much it might be worth? You can find out with a free home or property valuation at HouseValues.com. Click here to get started. www.housevalues.com Micro Mosaic Home Decoration Decorate your home with ancient mosaic reproductions, free color and size customization. Choose among 4000 designs. www.mosaicmarble.com (Become a Sponsor) Partner Spotlight Featured Sponsor Find a Local REALTOR by HomeGain Find & Compare REALTORS Get Home Prices Featured Videos Dream Home Videos by Inman Stories Real Estate News Can separated couple sell two houses in one year? Dec 20, 2005, Inman News Realty Reality: HOA Members have Greater Access to Records Dec 20, 2005, Realty Times Demystifying Escrow For First-Time Home Buyers Dec 15, 2005, RealEstateJournal.com Housing starts rise, core inflation tame Dec 20, 2005, Yahoo! Finance Dubai firm in 26.6-billion-dollar Saudi project (AFP) Dec 20, 2005, Yahoo! News Number of New Homes Increase for a Strong Year Dec 20, 2005, Quicken Loans more real estate news Homes For Sale - Apartments For Rent - Current Mortgage Rates - Real Estate Agents - Local - Yellow Pages