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Real Estate Prices Still

Agricultural Economist Newsletter: Winter 2001--Farm Real Estate Prices Still Rising in Minnesota Farm Real Estate Prices Still Rising in Minnesota Steven J. Taff Average Minnesota farm real estate sales prices just keep on climbing (figure 1). This despite low output prices, rising input costs, and continued uncertainty about the future of federal subsidies. Sales price increases were seen in all parts of the state except in the northwest. In this annual sales price summary, I can provide only an overview, some cursory analysis, and--as always--a few opinions. I'll not bore you with text that simply repeats what's already shown in the charts. Instead I'll spend some time discussing how land transaction data are recorded, adjusted, and employed. I think it's useful to go through some administrative and procedural details to further our understanding of what these data are and what they are not. If this prospect makes you say, "Just show me the data, Steve," then you can stop right after the sales summary section. Or, if your impatience knows no bounds, go straight to the Minnesota Land Economics (MLE) Web site at http://apec.umn.edu/faculty/sjtaff/landdata/index.html and start working the numbers yourself. Farm Land Sales in 2000 Assessors are required to report initial assessments in late fall, based on sales data to date. That's why the data are reported on a "record year" basis: these are the sales that were, presumably, available for assessor scrutiny at the time the initial estimated market-values are calculated. Final values are set by summer, to be used in the succeeding tax year. So, for example, sales made in late 1999 are used by assessors to set initial values for January 2001. These estimates are adjusted in spring 2001, finalized in summer 2001, and then used for tax purposes in 2002. The adjusted record year 2000 sales data were therefore not available until April of this year. Figure 2 shows the distribution of all farmland sales in 2000. The bulk of the sales lie between $500 and $2,000 per acre. I excluded a small number of sales that exceeded $5,000 per acre as well as those involving parcels of land less than 20 acres in size. Both were excluded as not being plausibly "agricultural"--despite their designation on the Certificate of Real Estate Value (CRV) as "agricultural" land. (Although excluded from figure 2, these data are included in the MLE Web site data.) Even though MAE readers and MLE Web site users can view the full distribution of sales prices, most still ask for a single number that somehow captures the story behind the figures. Obviously, for a set of sales that span such a wide range in prices, any single number fails completely to accomplish this end. Movements in averages, while arithmetically correct, usually fail to tell the entire story. The particular average I use in this article is a location- and size-weighted mean (table 1). In last year's farm real estate report ( agecon.lib.umn.edu/mn/mae699.pdf ), I discussed the usefulness of such weighting as well as the desirability of examining sales data at the smallest geographic scale possible. Table 1. Minnesota farm real estate sales summary Record year Number of sales Acres sold Average price* 1996 2,504 263,728 936 1997 2,641 296,803 1,039 1998 2,724 303,968 1,113 1999 2,212 235,359 1,196 2000 2,258 250,979 1,222 * Location- and size-weighted per-acre mean Figure 1 compares the movements of actual sales price averages with those two other estimates of land value--the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) annual state estimates (based on a farmer opinion survey) and the average assessor estimates (the location- and size-weighted mean estimated market value). The University of Minnesota sales prices averages are location- and size-weighted means. The fact that all three (somewhat) independent estimates of farmland real estate values shown in figure 1 move in lockstep adds credence, I believe, to the conclusion that, on average, farmland values really are increasing in Minnesota. Geographic variations in real estate values for the past 11 years are shown in the box-and-whisker plots of figure 3. (District boundaries are shown in figure 4.) The range of sales prices for each district for each year is shown by the endpoints of the vertical lines. The ends of each box show the prices at which 25 percent of the sales were higher (or lower). The median is indicated by the horizontal bar within each box. So, for example, the median Central district farmland sale was about $1,200 per acre, with 25 percent of the sales lower than $750 and 75 percent lower than $1,850 per acre. In previous years' reports, I've noted the wide variation in average price movements among districts. Such differences were accentuated in 2000 by the continued climb of values in the South East district combined with the continued stagnation in the North West district (figure 5) . Farm Sale Data When a Minnesota property is sold, the transaction details must be recorded at the county courthouse on a form called a CRV. On it, the seller attests that such-and-such a property was sold to so-and-so on a certain date for a specific price. Other information about the property (its size, soil characteristics, prior year's estimated market value) is often entered on the CRV as well. Frequently, the per-acre prices that underlie this article and are also shown in the MLE Web site are not the prices entered on the CRV. Long before a land sales figure enters the official data base, it has been passed through an array of filters and adjustments designed to make comparison among transactions more meaningful and more reliable. Recording the Transactions There are many possible slips between an ownership change and data analysis. Of course, there is always the chance that simple recording errors are made. For example, numbers may be miscopied from bills of sale onto the CRV, or into a computer file, or into a spreadsheet. There is also a chance of misrepresentation. The person who fills in the CRV might have a reason to understate or overstate the actual sales price--perhaps to avoid a tax. This, of course, is illegal, but, as any courthouse veteran can tell you, it occasionally happens. Not every sale receives further processing. Local or state officials remove from subsequent analysis any sale not deemed "arms-length," because it was sold, for example, to a member of the seller's immediate family. Or, a sale might be pulled because the new buyer intends to convert the land to a non-agricultural use. Adjusting the Prices After this filtering, sales prices are frequently adjusted to make comparison among sales more appropriate. First, to expunge the effects of inflation, sales prices are deflated by an officially reported rate to January 2 of the year in which they were recorded. This "adjustment for time" is fairly minor in years (like the past decade) where inflation has been low. The second adjustment is "for terms." Not all farm real estate sales are for the full property. Some are made through a contract for deed, an arrangement that allows the buyer to pay a certain amount now and other amounts at stated intervals. Until the final payment is made, the property remains in the possession of the seller--even though it has been "sold." Because the full payment schedule is entered on the CRV, the Department of Revenue can calculate a present value of the initial and subsequent payments at an official discount rate. This becomes the official sales price of the property, regardless of what the buyer and seller had in mind when they sealed the deal. Adjustments don't end with a time- and terms-adjusted sales price, honestly reported and accurately recorded. In most cases, users of the data are interested in per-acre prices, not per-parcel prices. That means some chosen total price must be divided by some total acreage. But which price? Which acres? Should we use the total price or should we first subtract out the value of buildings, personal property, ancillary property, or machinery to get closer to the "true" land price? In this article (and on the MLE Web site), I choose to follow conventions established years ago in Minnesota. I report the time- and terms-adjusted total sales price, minus the value of personal property, divided by the entire acreage of the parcel. That's why, when I'm being careful, I speak of the average price of farm real estate, not of farm land . Employing the Data The sales reported here are only those recorded between October 1, 1999, and September 30, 2000. These "record year 2000" sales are so bundled because of the way real estate transactions are used to help local assessors value land for property tax purposes. Strange as it may seem, the Department of Revenue does not collect sales data merely to satisfy the data cravings of University economists like me. No, statewide sales data are collected principally to create statistics that are used to "equalize" property tax valuations across county boundaries. Each year, county assessors are required to assign an estimated market value (EMV) to each of the thousands of real estate parcels in the county. The estimate is supposed to be based on an examination of similar properties that were actually sold recently. (The combined valuations for each township, city, or county are the source of the Land Values--in contrast to the Farmland Sales--data on the MLE Web site.) Because every county has its own assessor who uses largely independent valuation procedures, there are inevitably discontinuities across county lines--even for adjacent properties. Farmer Brown wonders why Farmer Olson's land, just across the fence line in the next county, carries an assessed value that is lower by $200 per acre. The state has created an equalization procedure that is supposed to smooth over such discontinuities. Assuming that nearby properties really would sell for similar prices, any observed difference in assessed values for otherwise similar properties is presumed to be evidence that one or both of the assessors is either undervaluing (that is, assigning an EMV that is too low) or overvaluing properties. To test this, the state calculates a sales ratio (the EMV divided by sales price) for every property sold in a particular area. If an assessor systematically undervalues properties (shown by sales ratios that are consistently lower than some threshold), the state might demand the EMVs in that jurisdiction be uniformly raised, to better accord with what is thought to be "true" market conditions. How Accurate Are the EMVs? We can see for ourselves how close the final assessor estimates are by comparing actual sales prices against the previous year's estimated market values for the same property (figure 2). Each point in the figure represents one sale. For example, the rightmost point is for a property that was estimated to have a value of $4,900 per acre, but actually sold for only $2,900 per acre. While some of the estimates are obviously way off (like this example), the bulk are pretty close. In most cases, the EMV was lower than the sale price, but in a neatly predictable manner. A simple one-variable regression model, shown as the straight line in the figure, accounts for nearly 75 percent of the observed variation in farm real estate sales prices. Parting Thoughts What accounts for the ever-onward-and-upward movement of average farm real estate prices in Minnesota? We need only to round up the usual suspects, most of which I have discussed at length in previous issues of MAE . These include 1) perennial farmer optimism about future crop and livestock prices, 2) expected extensions of federal farm subsidy programs, 3) continued favorable local property tax treatment for farmland, 4) the desire of some farmers to increase the size of their current operation by buying adjacent farmland, 5) the desire of some non-farm buyers to use land as a hedge against inflation, and 6) inflation itself. An additional suspect that we need to add is the increasing prominence of location even in rural land markets. We simply can't explain current price levels on the basis of income potential (including subsidies) and speculation potential alone. Clearly, where the land sits with respect to job centers and what it looks like is influencing the price buyers are willing to pay for a particular parcel of land. As always, I caution potential land buyers and sellers about reading too much into the average land prices reported here and elsewhere. If you've got land to sell or if you have a hankering to buy land--look before you leap. The financial stakes are too high for casual empiricism. Hire an appraiser. Talk with your spouse. Check your finances. Think about the children. Be careful out there! Steven J. Taff is an associate professor and extension economist with the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota. Return to Minnesota Ag Economist Newsletter Index Page University of Minnesota Extension Service HomePage

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We purchase property in Gloucester and Cheltenham - Quick Property Sale Home Our guarantee How we work Benefits to you Sell and rent back FAQs Meet our customers The next step Contact us Become a partner Press room Conveyancing We purchase property in Gloucester and Cheltenham - Quick Property Sale WE PURCHASE PROPERTY IN GLOUCESTER AND CHELTENHAM - QUICK PROPERTY SALE National Home Buyers wants to buy your home in Cheltenham and Gloucester . National Homebuyers is looking to purchase properties in across the county of Gloucestershire. National Homebuyers is a major national property company that guarantees to buy your home regardless of its condition or location. Gloucester is an ideal location for National Homebuyers to buy houses and flats and the company is seeking people who want or need to move quickly. This information was delivered by National Homebuyers spokesperson, David Harber, as property prices remain steady across the country. "We will buy your home in Gloucestershire. Whether in Gloucester, Cheltenham, Stroud or Tewkesbury. This beautiful county is perfect for us and we want to help people who may need a quick sale for their property for whatever reason", says Harber. Homeowners looking to sell in Gloucester should contact National Home Buyers on 0870 979 0900 or click here for more information Previous News 24-Oct-2005 Property Auction Alternative - FAST HOUSE AND HOME PURCHASE - National Homebuyers 24-Oct-2005 Property Auction Alternative - We Will Purchase Your House or Home FAST 24-Oct-2005 Property Auction Alternative - Fast house and home purchase from National Homebuyers 24-Oct-2005 Property Auction Alternative - Fast House and Home Purchase from National Homebuyers 24-Oct-2005 We purchase property in Gloucester and Cheltenham - Quick Property Sale 09-Oct-2005 Home Buyers Repair a Broken Chain 05-Oct-2005 Sell and Rent Back from National Homebuyers 04-Oct-2005 We will buy your home in Croydon, Surrey FAST - Quick Property Purchase 29-Sep-2005 We will buy your home in Brighton and Sussex FAST - Quick Property Purchase News Archive Please click HERE to go to the news archive, where you can find all past news. Legal | Site Map | Contact Us | Printer friendly MSO.net © 2004 - 2005 National Home Buyers

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Amazon.co.uk: Selling Houses: How to Sell Your House as Quickly as You Can for as Much Money as You Can: Books BOOK SEARCH BROWSE CATEGORIES SPECIAL OFFERS TOP SELLERS AUDIO BOOKS Paperbacks 3 for £12 NEW & USED TEXTBOOKS HARRY POTTER SELL YOUR BOOKS All Products -Books -Used Books -Collectable Books All Subjects -Art, Architecture & Photography -Audio Cassettes -Audio CDs -Biography -Business, Finance & Law -Children's Books -Comics & Graphic Novels -Computers & Internet -Crime, Thrillers & Mystery -Fiction -Food & Drink -Gay & Lesbian -Health, Family & Lifestyle -History -Home & Garden -Horror -Humour -Mind, Body & Spirit -Music, Stage & Screen -Poetry, Drama & Criticism -Reference & Languages -Religion & Spirituality -Romance -Science & Nature -Science Fiction & Fantasy -Scientific, Technical & Medical -Society, Politics & Philosophy -Sports, Hobbies & Games -Travel & Holiday -Young Adult All Subjects Art, Architecture & Photography Audio Cassettes Audio CDs Biography Business, Finance & Law Children's Books Comics & Graphic Novels Computers & Internet Crime, Thrillers & Mystery Education & Languages Fiction Food & Drink Gay & Lesbian Health, Family & Lifestyle History Home & Garden Horror Humour Mind, Body & Spirit Music, Stage & Screen Poetry, Drama & Criticism Reference Religion & Spirituality Romance Science & Nature Science Fiction & Fantasy Scientific, Technical & Medical Society, Politics & Philosophy Sports, Hobbies & Games Travel & Holiday Young Adult BOOKS INFO At A Glance Reviews Customer Reviews See more by these authors: Anthea Masey Andrew Winter E-mail a Friend About This Item Recommendations If you already own this, rate it and improve your recommendations , Not Rated Visit the Music shop Confessions on a Dance Floor ~ Madonna Find a huge selection of books at 30% off Become an Associate Join our Associates Programme and make money from your website! Selling Houses: How to Sell Your House as Quickly as You Can for as Much Money as You Can Anthea Masey , Andrew Winter Publisher: learn how customers can search inside this book. List Price: £12.99 Our Price: £9.09 & eligible for Free UK delivery on orders over £15 with Super Saver Delivery. See details & conditions . You Save: £3.90 (30%) Availability: usually dispatched within 4 to 6 days. 21 Used & New from £4.95 See larger photo Edition: Paperback More Product Details Perfect Partner Buy Selling Houses: How to Sell Your House as Quickly as You Can... with "House Doctor" Quick Fixes: Top 100 Ways... today! Buy Together Today: £25.08 Customers who bought this item also bought: House Doctor: How to Add Pounds to the Value of Your Home ;Hardcover~Ann Maurice Location Location Location: The Complete Guide to Buying and Selling your Home ;Paperback~Kirstie Allsopp (Foreword), Fanny Blake The Property Book ;Hardcover~Ann Maurice Fiona Fullerton's Guide to Buying, Selling and Moving House ;Paperback~Fiona Fullerton "House Doctor" Instant Makeovers ;Hardcover~Ann Maurice Explore similar items ... Product Details: Paperback 160 pages(March 1, 2004) Publisher: Headline Book Publishing Ltd Language: English ISBN: 0755312333 Category(ies): Home & Garden Other Editions: Hardcover Average Customer Review: | Write a review Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 23,383 (Publishers and authors: improve your sales ) sign in to turn on 1-Click™ ordering. 16 New from 4.95 5 used from 6.70 Have one to sell? (We'll set one up for you) View my Wish List . Customers interested in this title may also be interested in: What's this? ( What's this? ) Feedback Buy and Sell Property Online At UKHomeSalez.com, there are no agent fees or monthly fees and your property is advertised until sold. You can upload a photo, get worldwide exposure and be listed online in minutes. uk.homesalez.com Sell Your House Privately Reach over three million buyers a month. Experienced property sellers. Packages from 25 - 120. www.getterbetterhome.co.uk Sell Your Property to Us Quickly We buy London properties for cash and can exchange within seven days. Call us for a free, no-obligation valuation and take the hassle out of your property sale. www.mpginvestments.co.uk Reviews Book Description In the tradition of the successful 'House Doctor' books, a tie-in to Channel 4's top-rated property series 'Selling Houses'. Synopsis "Selling Houses" is the Channel 4 series in which estate agent Andrew Winter transforms apparently impossible-to-sell houses and finds a buyer for them within three weeks of the transformation. This practical and well-illustrated guide gives readers the know-how and estate agent's inside knowledge to help them turn their house into a buyer's dream. It takes them through the entire process from the basic principles of knowing the buyer, knowing the competition and making the best of their homes, through detailed room-by-room advice including projects for a range of budgets. Drawing on case studies from both series and around the country, it includes everything a vendor needs to get that stubborn For Sale sign down and the Sold sign up. See all reviews... Customer Reviews Avg. Customer Review: Write an online review and share your thoughts with other shoppers! You won't want to sell. , November 22, 2005 Reviewer: Mr. George Hudson from Worcester, Worcestersshire United Kingdom I didn't see the TVE series on which this book was base but I wanted a practical how to sell a house book. Splendidly, produced as it is the contents of the book are mainly about "tarting up" up your house to such a degree you will never want sell. Was this review helpful to you? 6 of 6 people found the following review helpful: some great tips , September 22, 2004 Reviewer: avearnshaw from Co.Cavan, Ireland As an avid viewer of this and many other TV series like this I had to buy this book. It is full of great tips for fixing up your house for sale. It doesn't go into great detail on the projects covered but gives more of a general guide on what they did to fix up each house. The TV series is way more useful but as companion books go it's pretty good and worth having if you are selling your house. Was this review helpful to you? 46 of 48 people found the following review helpful: A wonderful book whether or not you are selling your house , December 19, 2003 Reviewer: A reader from Glasgow I bought this book when I was contemplating selling my house, having seen part of one episode of the Channel 4 series. I was amazed by how much I enjoyed reading this book. It is beautifully laid out, with a chapter about how to tackle each room in your property in order to make your house more attractive to potential buyers. The advice is clear, simple and often inexpensive. The book is based around a number of real life homeowners who have had difficulty in selling their houses for the price they hoped for. Each chapter is illustrated with before and after photographs of real rooms which have been transformed. The photography is excellent and the 'after' pictures really inspiring. The final chapter gives an update on how the houses made over in the book fared once put back on the housing market. I won't spoil the ending for you but the results were impressive. Even if you are not planning on selling your property any time soon, this book is definitely a worthwhile read as it will inspire you with ideas for how to transform your home. I have read and re-read this lovely book many times and cannot recommend it highly enough. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title . Was this review helpful to you? Customers who bought books by Anthea Masey also bought books by these authors: Ann Maurice Sarah Beeny Fiona Fullerton Tony Booth Kirstie Allsopp Look for similar books by subject: Browse for Books in: Subjects > Home & Garden > Interior Design & Decoration > General Subjects > Home & Garden > Buying & Developing Property > Property Guides Search for books by subject: Home furnishing & decoration Household Management Housing & property for the individual i.e., each book must be in subject 1 AND subject 2 AND ... Comment on this title I have read this book and I want to review it. I am the author and I want to comment on my book. I am the publisher and I want to comment on this book. Correct errors and omissions in this listing. Where's My Stuff? • track your recent orders • view or change your orders in Your Account Delivery and Returns • see our delivery rates and policies • thinking of returning an item ? (See our Returns Policy ) Need Help? • forgot your password? 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