Real Estate Prices

Why the world's best real estate investor is cashing out. - Oct. 24, 2005 Web CNN/Money Home News Markets Technology Commentary Personal Finance Autos Real Estate News Newsmakers SAVE | EMAIL | PRINT | SUBSCRIBE TO MONEY | The king of real estate's cashing out Tom Barrack is selling most of his U.S. portfolio. Maybe you should be nervous too. October 24, 2005: 7:56 AM EDT By Shawn Tully , Fortune Senior Writer NEW YORK (Fortune) - Tom Barrack, arguably the world's greatest real estate investor, is methodically selling off his U.S. real estate holdings as prices drive the market to nosebleed levels. He likens the current real estate market to a game of polo. "I feel totally safe playing polo on a field full of pros," says the bronzed 58-year old. "But when amateurs are all over the field, someone can get killed. They have more guts than brains. They charge after every ball and don't know when to hold back." It's the same with U.S. real estate right now. "There's too much money chasing too few good deals, with too much debt and too few brains." The amateurs are going to get trampled, he explains, taking seasoned horsemen, who should get off the turf, down with them. Says Barrack: "That's why I'm getting out." Investors take heed. Barrack may be an amateur at polo, but when it comes to judging markets, he's the ultimate pro. Arguably the best real estate investor on the planet, he runs a $25 billion portfolio of trophy assets, from the Raffles hotel chain in Asia to the Aga Khan's former resort in Sardinia to Resorts International, the largest private gaming company in the U.S. Barrack's Colony Capital, one of the largest private equity firms devoted solely to real estate, has racked up returns of 21 percent annually since 1990, handing investors, chiefly pension funds and college endowments, 17 percent after all fees. Barrack bought the Fukuoka Dome, Japan's Yankee Stadium, in part because he calculated that the titanium in the retractable roof was worth as much as the purchase price. His strategy is to buy classy but neglected properties anywhere in the world where prices are low. Then, he'll pour in capital to fix them up, and resell in them in five years of so with their pedigrees fully restored. Says his friend Donald Trump: "Tom has an amazing vision of the future, an ability to see what's going to happen that no one else can match." Right now, Barrack's view of the U.S. market couldn't be clearer: It's a great time to sell, and a terrible time to buy. In fact, he sees signs of the tech bubble mentality in real estate. Too much capital is chasing real estate, he explains, with hedge funds, private equity groups, and rich investors all bidding on the same properties. "They've driven prices to the point where the yields on high-quality properties are like the returns on bonds, around 5 percent or 6 percent," says Barrack. "That's too low." And he sees the bubble deflating soon. Barrack thinks the catalyst will be a trend few others are talking about, a steep rise in the price of building materials and labor. "Construction costs have spiked 20 percent in the past nine months," he says. The reasons: Shortages of labor and materials like lumber because of the building boom, and increases in the price of oil, needed to produce everything from plastic piping to insulation to shingles. The slump will show up first in speculative hot spots like Miami and Las Vegas, he says, where condo developers are preselling their projects for what looks like big profits. When they actually build the units over the next year or two, he predicts, they will end up spending more then the units are now selling for. At that point, says Barrack, the developers will try to raise prices. "But most of these buyers are speculators," he says. "They will either sue the developers to get the original price or take their deposits back and walk away." The developers will then put the units back on the market, and the glut of vacant condos will drive prices down. "It's the busted deals caused by construction costs that will cause the turn in the market," he says. So Barrack is buying just one type of property in the U.S.: Casinos. And in contrast to most gaming titans, he's doing it on the cheap. Extraordinary homes, on the cheap ... click here Colony paid just $280 million for the 3000 room Las Vegas Hilton in 2003, one-tenth of what Steve Wynn paid to build his new casino, which has roughly the same number of rooms. The reason Barrack likes casinos is that he's licensed to operate casinos in all the major markets, while most other private equity firms and other financial players don't have licenses. Hence, they're locked out of the market, and can't bid against Barrack. For Barrack, casinos are a safe, exclusive preserve, far from the frenzied melee that's makes every other part of U.S. real estate such a dangerous place to play. For now, Barrack is getting off the field. But when the din subsides, and the amateurs depart, look for Barrack to ride back in, mallet cocked, ready to play again. ---------------------- To read the full-length article from Fortune, click here . The Hot List Most profitable renovations How risky is your 401(k)? Big new tax credits for hybrid cars More Newsmakers Google, Oprah looking hot in '06 Ex-Enron exec pleads guilty NYC transit deal gets OK contact us | magazine customer service | site map | glossary | RSS | press room OTHER NEWS: CNN | SI | Fortune | Business2.0 = Money subscribers = Premium content -- * - Time reflects local markets trading time. † - Intraday data is at least 15-minutes delayed. Disclaimer © 2005 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. A Time Warner Company ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms under which this service is provided to you. privacy policy Reprints of site stories are available. Top Stories Most overvalued housing markets Risks to the economy in 2006 Which was the worst ad of all in 2005? After the ride, a rest Hilton brands reunite after 40 years YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS Follow the news that matters to you. Create your own alert to be notified on topics you're interested in. Or, visit Popular Alerts for suggestions. Manage alerts | What is this?

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New Homes Partner Locator : ENERGY STAR What is ENERGY STAR? | Newsroom Search What are ENERGY STAR Qualified New Homes Features of ENERGY STAR Qualified New Homes Benefits of ENERGY STAR Qualified New Homes Homebuyer Resources New Homes Partner Locator For Residential Building Professionals PRODUCTS HOME IMPROVEMENT NEW HOMES BUSINESS IMPROVEMENT PARTNER RESOURCES -- Home > New Homes > Partner Locator -- -- New Homes Partner Locator Find home builders and developers that build ENERGY STAR qualified new homes, lenders that offer energy efficient mortgages, utilities that offer special incentives to buyers, builders and developers of ENERGY STAR qualified new homes, and home energy raters that can verify the energy efficiency of a home. Find a Site-Built Home Builders and Developers constructing traditional or systems-built (Modular, ICF, SIP) homes on site Manufactured Home Builders providing factory-built, HUD code-based homes Home Energy Raters verifying the performance of ENERGY STAR qualified new homes Utilities/Sponsors providing assistance to ENERGY STAR home buyers and builders Lenders offering special financing for ENERGY STAR qualified new homes State All States Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut D.C. Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Links to Partner Web sites and independently-operated regional Web sites with local information about ENERGY STAR qualified new homes are provided where available. EPA and ENERGY STAR are not responsible for content provided on external Web sites. Refer to Minimum Requirements for Maintaining Active Builder or Verification Organization Status for our policy on listing only active partners, and to our Web Linking Policy for maintaining Web links to Partner Web sites. Products | Home Improvement | New Homes | Business Improvement | Partner Resources Newsroom | Privacy | Contact Us | Site Index EPA Home EPA Search DOE Home DOE Search

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Real Estate CU Home Libraries Home Search | Site Index | FAQ | Help Search Library Catalog: Title (start of title) Journal (start of title) Author (last, first) Keyword (and, or, not, "") Subject Go To CLIO Find Databases: Title Keywords Title (start of title) Keywords Go To Databases Find E-Journals: Title (start of title) Title Keywords Subject Keywords Go To E-Journals Search the Libraries Website: Go To Advanced Website Search Libraries & Collections About the Libraries Libraries Collections Digital Collections Special Collections -- Hours Directions to Columbia Map of Campus Libraries Locations & Contact Info More... Catalogs CLIO (Columbia's Online Catalog) Course Reserves Educat (Teachers College) Pegasus (Law) WorldCat More... E-Resources Citation Finder Databases E-Journals E-Books E-Data E-News E-Images DigitalCommons -- Subject Guides More... Report Problems Request It BorrowDirect Medical Center/Morningside In Process/Ordered Science Fast Track Interlibrary Loan Recommend Titles for Purchase More... Ask Us Contact a Reference Desk Email a Question Frequently Asked Questions Make a Suggestion Online Chat Service (Ask Us Now) Report an E-Resource Problem Schedule a Research Consultation Staff Contacts & Directories More... Using the Libraries My Library Account Borrow & Renew Computing, Laptops, Wireless Course Reserves Info Frequently Asked Questions Hours Library Access & Privileges Printing & Photocopying Workshops & Research Help More... Real Estate In addition to the resources found in the Business and Economics Library, Avery Library has an extensive real estate collection. These resources were selected for their authority, ease of use, and accessibility. If you need more assistance, speak to a reference librarian. See http://www.columbia.edu /cu/lweb/indiv/business/refservices.html for Reference Desk hours or email the reference librarians: business@libraries.cul.columbia.edu Additional resources can be found in CLIO , the library catalog. Contents: Directories Handbooks Periodicals Indexes, Abstracts and Full Text Internet Resources DIRECTORIES Crittenden Directory of Real Estate Financing. HG2040 .C7 (Reference) Alphabetical directory of real estate lenders (banks, REITs, pension funds, etc.) throughout the U.S. Includes type of financing, type of projects, and contact information. Cross-indexed by real estate sector (apartments, offices, industrial, etc.). Crittenden Directory of Real Estate Investors & Buyers HD1361.D57 (Reference) Directory of real estate investors. Manhattan Cooperative and Condominium Directory. AA50 M3 (Avery Reserves) Directory of cooperative and condominium apartment houses in Manhattan. Nelson's Directory of Institutional Real Estate. AA50 N33 (Avery Library Reference) Separate sections cover real estate investment management firms, real estate service firms, pension funds and foundations that invest in real estate, the 2,000 largest corporations with active real estate operations, and real estate investment trusts. Each entry includes an overview of the firm, names of key executives, and contact information. Searchable geographically and by type of service offered. Covers mainly the U.S., with some foreign entries. Back to the table of contents. HANDBOOKS Handbook of Real Estate Terms. HD1390 .D48 (Reference) Brief definitions of 2,700 terms and acronyms. McGraw-Hill Real Estate Handbook. HD1375 .M17 1993 (Reference) Has 31 chapters by various authors on aspects of the real estate business, financing, buying and selling, and taxation. Back to the table of contents. PERIODICALS National Real Estate Investor http://www.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/cul/resolve?clio3327469.001 Also available in print: Slot N-254 (Current Periodicals) Forecast -- Conditions in Leasing, Financing, Construction and Investment Trends: published in February. Real Estate Alert http://www.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/cul/resolve?clio3327945.002 Professional newsletter covering the industry. Real Estate Economics: Journal of the American Real estate and Urban Economics Association http://www.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/cul/resolve?clio3430028.004 Also available in print: Slot R-200 (Current Periodicals) Scholarly journal covering various aspects of real estate markets. Real Estate Finance http://www.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/cul/resolve?clio3430029.001 Also available in print: Slot AB R221 (Avery Library Reserves) "The quarterly review of commercial finance techniques." Published by Institutional Investor, Inc. Real Estate Finance and Investment http://www.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/cul/resolve?clio4814204.002 Also available in print: KF5698.3.Z9 .R42 (Business Reserves) Professional newsletter covering the industry. Real Estate Forum http://www.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/cul/resolve?clio3431203 Also available in print: Slot R-206 (Current Periodicals) Real Estate Issues http://www.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/cul/resolve?clio3430030.001 Also available in print: Slot AB R224 (Avery Library) Real Estate Review Print: Slot R-220 (Current Periodicals) Covers real estate market trends, financing and investment opportunities. Back to the table of contents. DATABASES ABI/Inform on ProQuest Direct . http://www.columbia.edu/cu/lweb/eresources/databases/4371876.html Online database which contains citations and abstracts of over 1700 business and economics journals with over 700 of these available full-text and/or imaged. Delivery options include email, downloading, and printing. Coverage: 1971 to present; Updates: Weekly Bloomberg. Business Electronic Resources (Library Use Only) Bloomberg is rich with information on Real Estate Investment Trusts, Real Estate Financing, and related data. Tye "REL" and hit the GO key for the real estate menu of equity analytics. Coverage: varies; updates: constant. Business Source Premier http://www.columbia.edu/cu/lweb/eresources/databases/4784657.html Covers all disciplines of business, including marketing, management, accounting, finance, international business, econometrics and economics. Contains full text of the Harvard Business Review, California Management Review and other important journals. BSP also includes country reports from EIU and Global Insight as well as company reports from Datamonitor. Factiva http://www.columbia.edu/cu/lweb/eresources/databases/3272677.html Factiva is an excellent resource for finding company and industry information. Factiva contains a database of nearly 8,000 publications, including: academic and trade publications, industry newsletters, international and regional newspapers, business magazines, and business newswires. The two sections of the database that are most commonly used for this assignment are the "Factiva Library" (which allows researchers to search the 8,000 sources) and the "Quick Company Search" (which contains company profiles - information about: finances, competitors, company history, etc.). LexisNexis Academic http://www.columbia.edu/cu/lweb/eresources/databases/2100385.html Comprehensive online database which affords access to hundreds of information sources, including the full text of newspapers, magazines, wire services, newsletters, journals, and broadcast transcripts. Coverage: Varies by source; Updates: Varies by source ULI Development Case Studies http://www.columbia.edu/cu/lweb/eresources/databases/4823442.html Access to more than 300 detailed case studies of completed projects ranging from low-income housing to mixed-use downtown developments to commercial and industrial projects. The case studies provide photographs and site plans, information on costs and rents, innovative features and strategies of the project, and an explanation of the entire development process. It covers projects from 1985 to the present. Thirty new case studies are added every year. Back to the table of contents. All electronic services are restricted to current students, staff, and faculty at Columbia University, Teachers College, and Barnard College with a valid CUNIX ID and logon. © Columbia University Libraries My Library Account | Hours | Contacts | Suggestions Last update: 2005-11-30