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Pondering Real Estate Pondering Real Estate Adam Hamilton August 23, 2002 2913 Most Americans' largest asset is their home. With chaotic and turbulent economic times upon us, how will residential real estate perform in the coming years. Some thoughts... One of the greatest blessings of writing publicly is the continual stream of feedback I am offered from folks around the world. They let me know when I am wrong, help shape my worldviews and opinions, and offer dazzling new ideas that are often absolutely brilliant. Without everyone who graciously writes in to help deepen my own understanding, my own thought processes would rapidly stagnate. I am always grateful for feedback, positive, neutral, or negative. The people who take the time to write really augment the crucial foundational base off which my thoughts articulated in these essays are formed and polished. One of the most common questions people have, especially those writing from the States, regards real estate. For Americans, real estate, in the form of their primary family home, is often the largest asset they command. The value of real estate, especially the price trend, is very important to countless folks across our great nation. Many Americans I hear from, especially those with a contrarian investor mindset, wonder what will happen to residential real estate prices in the United States. The question is a very complex and difficult one, for a whole myriad of reasons. I have been pondering this matter since the US equity bubbles burst and am finally ready to commit some tentative thoughts to paper on this vexing issue. A massive caveat is in order however. I am approaching this question about real estate price trends from the perspective of a speculator. Not having a background in real estate, these ideas may be completely worthless, so please dont act on anything in this essay without at least first discussing these concepts with a real estate professional you personally trust with decades of experience. I hope this essay will simply spur further thoughts and discussions. The primary issue that I have been wrestling with in my mind regarding residential real estate price trends in the coming years concerns inflation and deflation. Inflation and deflation are simply opposing monetary phenomena, but both seem to be attacking our fragile post-bust economy in the US with great fury from opposite sides. For some background on these two titanic forces, please see my Inflation or Deflation? essay published last December. Inflation is spawned by the hooligans at the Federal Reserve printing too much paper (or electronic) money, which they have been doing in spades in recent years in a vain and fruitless attempt to stop the normal post-bubble bust process from running its full course. In the last 12 months, the various US money supply measures have exploded up with astounding violence. The absolute year-over-year M1 inflation is 5.2%, MZM 12.7%, M2 7.9%, and M3 7.4%. These numbers are downright frightening in light of historical inflationary precedent! In an inflationary environment, relatively more money chases after relatively fewer goods, services, and real estate. If the amount of money in circulation is rising faster than available real estate in the areas in which people want to live, residential real estate prices should rise. Realtors use this inflation idea to convince their customers that land prices should perpetually rise because land is scarce. Unfortunately, thats not the whole story. While real estate professionals constantly bombard us with marketing propaganda claiming that land is scarce and no more is being made, that is a myth. One example why is evident in multi-story buildings. A 10-story structure, for example, has about 10x the usable space as a single story structure, but has the same footprint in raw land terms. Land itself is not scarce, just land in locations where people want to live. For example, the sparsely-populated state of Montana has about 147,000 square miles of area, or roughly 94m acres. Assuming that only 2/3 of Montanas land is useable (the rest might be mountains or lakes, or streets in cities), that leaves 63m acres. If the entire US population is 287m people, they could all move to Montana and each live in modest estates of almost 1/4 acre, or 9,500 square feet. If their houses took up 1/3 of their plots, and each had a basement and two aboveground stories, every American could live in Montana in individual 9,500 square feet mini-mansions! Land is not scarce in general. I have seen land sell in the North Dakota Badlands for $25 per acre. I have heard of deals involving vast tracts of land in northern Australia going for under $1 per acre. Land is relatively scarce in small areas in which lots of people want or need to live however, such as New York Citys Manhattan Island. Monetary inflation should indeed bode well for real estate prices, but where will it strike? If US monetary inflation bids on barren lands in the Western states for example, residential real estate in the big Eastern cities might not benefit. Just because the general economic environment in the US is highly inflationary thanks to the Feds obnoxious and practically criminal monetary growth, that doesnt necessarily mean real estate in a given small corner of the US will do well. And then we must consider deflation! Deflation is caused by relatively less money chasing relatively more goods, services, and real estate. In deflationary environments money supplies shrink and prices drop. As long as the American people allow the private Federal Reserve bank to continue its tyranny of inflationary theft, there will never be less money in the US economy than there is today. But, muddying the waters even further, the historical line between money and credit is now exceedingly blurry. Because Americans love going into debt, they insist on buying their houses on time, with borrowed money at high interest rates, rather than working hard, saving the funds themselves, and paying cash when they can afford to buy a house outright. While deflation in the US money supplies is probably impossible with the Fed around, deflation in debt, or credit, is already happening. With Americans not actually buying houses outright but really in effect borrowing them from banks, any contraction in available debt will leave less credit available to chase houses. With less credit chasing residential real estate, prices will be forced to fall. But, just as with inflation, it is difficult or impossible to predict how the contraction in general credit available to buy houses will affect real estate in any given small area of the United States. Confused yet? Me too. There are both titanic inflationary and monstrous deflationary forces barreling down on the United States. But, residential real estate markets are all local and many will be affected differently. Deflationary forces could win out in New York City for instance, causing home values to plummet while at the same time inflationary forces win out in Wyoming causing house prices to rise. Real estate is all local. In the stock markets, it is meaningless whether you buy a share of a publicly-traded company in New York or California. In real estate where you buy your house is everything! Location, location, location. Since all real estate markets are really local, perhaps there are some warning signs that you can watch for in your little corner of America to warn of impending real estate price drops. While national generalizations about monetary inflation or debt/credit deflation regarding real estate are tough to make, zooming in to the local level for analysis has a much higher probability of success. Stock speculators throughout history have learned to carefully monitor equity markets for danger signs of maturing bubbles. All markets, including real estate, move in great cycles throughout history, marked by rampant euphoria at the tops and popular indifference at the bottoms. Perhaps applying some common bubble warning signs in equity markets to your local real estate market will yield some interesting fruit. Three common warning signs for equity bubbles are parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria. In real estate, parabolic price rises happen when a local market witnesses prices rocketing up by 15%+ per year, for years in a row. If you go to your local library and look at old newspaper classified ads, or else secure local data from your hometown real estate professional, you can easily graph it in Excel. If prices of comparable homes across time are shooting up on a long-term zeroed-chart like a ballistic missile, like the bubbles in the NASDAQ 2000 and DJIA 1929, you are most likely in the belly of the beast, a local unsustainable real estate bubble. Check out bubble growth graphed, it sticks out like a central banker at a rock concert! This graph shows values indexed to 100, but you can just as easily think of them in terms of dollars, starting out at $100k. Imagine you bought a house 25 years ago for $100k, a lot of money back then. If your house price appreciated by 5% per year compounded annually, it would now be worth $339k, which is totally plausible and makes sense. On the other hand, if your house had appreciated by 15% each year, it would now be worth $3,292k, or $3.3m! This is a massive increase in price, and it ought to throw up big red warning flags all across your cranium. Does it make sense for a $100k house to become a $3.3m house in only 25 years? Absolutely not, that is just silly! As the graph above shows, abnormally high growth rates make for parabolic charts, bubbles that look just like the stock market variety. If your local real estate market is ascending parabolically like the NASDAQ of 1997-2000, you are in a bubble. History unambiguously shows that no financial trend continues in the same direction forever and all bubbles ultimately pop. Unrealistic annual growth rates are a key bubble warning sign. For a deeper discussion of unrealistic growth rates over the long-term, please see my essay The Elusive Long-Term from last August. Another warning sign of equity bubbles is excessive valuations. In the stock markets, valuations are most commonly measured by the formidable yet often scorned price-to-earnings ratio. The historical average P/E ratio for US equity markets is 13.5x earnings. We can also apply this concept to real estate holdings. While most people buy a house simply to live in, it is also possible to buy a house to use as a rental property. In a residential house used as a single-family rental, there is a price, the cash paid for the house, and an earnings stream, the rent the family pays to the owner. With a real estate P and E, we can compute a rough real estate valuation multiple. If a rental property costs $100k to buy, and rents for $1000 per month, or $12k per year, its P/E ratio is 8.3. Even though most families dont own a separate rental property, with a little legwork you can check your local newspapers and calculate some rough P/E proxies for your area. Find houses for sale similar to yours to get price data points. Find houses for rent similar to yours to get earnings data points. Divide the P by the E, and you have a rough valuation estimate. I dont know what a reasonable average long-term residential real-estate P/E is. I suspect it is probably in the 10-20 range though, as that implies a 5% to 10% return on the owners capital, which is in line with historical returns available across a broad market spectrum. If you find that houses in your area are renting for implied P/Es of under 20 or so, that is a good sign that house prices may be fair. Conversely, if you find houses in your area renting for implied P/Es of over 20, valuations are probably too high and you should be wary of a potential real estate bubble. Another common warning sign of equity bubbles is rampant and unbridled widespread euphoria. Remember the NASDAQ in 1999 and early 2000? It was unreal! All anyone ever talked about was the NASDAQ, how boring. As a hard-traveling consulting road warrior at the time, I remember even the shoeshine boys at airports were talking about their tech stock investments as they polished shoes. It was just crazy, just as brilliant historians like Charles Mackay of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds fame (written in 1841) warned us it would be. It is difficult to empirically quantify euphoria, but there is no mistaking it if you keep your ears open and pay attention to what folks are talking about in your social circles. If you find yourself in a local situation where the preferred topic of conversation at every social get-together is always residential real estate and the great wealth to be made in home ownership, chances are euphoria is setting in and you should proceed with great caution. Just as parabolic price rises, excessive valuations, and overwhelming euphoria are danger signs of bubble tops in the stock markets, they are also equally valid danger signs in local real estate markets. It is probably a wise idea to periodically monitor these three fronts. In addition to stock market-like traits, there are also other factors that affect local real estate prices. These include net local migration patterns, income trends, and interest rates. One of the most important local factors in house prices is migration. If you live in or near a community that is growing as more people move in each year, that increases the pool of potential bidders competing for local houses. Prices are far more likely to rise in an environment of net in-migration. On the other hand, if your community is shrinking, both the number of people and amount of capital available to throw at residential real estate dwindles. This is a bad omen for future real estate prices in your area. Typically cities grow and rural areas shrink as people seek the jobs available in cities. This is not always the case though. As the Information Age continues to evolve, a new population of workers is growing, the information worker. Info workers deal purely in information, like a software programmer. It is often not important where they live, as they rely on the Internet to work remotely with their colleagues and clients. Info workers often earn high salaries and have the means to bid up home prices. Zeal LLC , my company, is an example of an Information Age venture. My partners and I can research, consult, trade, and write from anywhere on Earth. It makes absolutely no difference to you whether I penned this essay in Alaska, Australia, Argentina, or the Azores. Info workers, whose ranks will grow dramatically in the coming decade, are very blessed to be able to live and work from anywhere. So, if you live in an area of exceptional natural beauty and very high quality of life, prime rural areas, an influx of urban information refugees from the decaying carcasses of the megalopoli will probably help support real estate prices in your location even through tough economic times. It may make sense to buy real estate in elite communities like the Colorado or California mountain resort towns even if the US economy faces very turbulent times ahead. The Information Age will probably totally alter the dynamics of rural real estate in prized areas. Another factor to consider is income trends in your area. Ultimately, real estate prices in a given location can never increase faster than income over the long-term. Even for the vast majority who choose to go into debt to live in a house, the level of debt service they can afford is totally dependent on their income. If general income trends in your community are rising, that is a great sign and is bullish for real estate prices. On the other hand, if general income is falling, for any reason, that suggests real estate prices will have to correct downward to adjust for the loss of debt-servicing ability necessary for folks to borrow money and buy residential real estate. Interest rate levels are also intimately tied into this whole debt service capability. As all those burdened with a mortgage know, for many years most of the monthly payments are almost totally interest. It takes a long time and a huge amount of money dumped down the mortgage black hole, into bankers pockets, before the amortization starts taking good-sized bites out of principal each month. Amazingly, in the first 2/3 of a typical 30-year mortgages lifespan, the interest portion of each monthly payment exceeds the principal portion. So, if interest rates are heading higher due to Greenspans promiscuous inflation as I have discussed in past essays including Bond Anomalies Abound , it will severely retard debt-financed residential real estate purchases nationwide. Although interest rates havent turned north yet, history suggests they will be forced higher sooner or later as the bubble excesses are painfully squeezed out of the US economy. In summary, attempting to divine real estate price trends is very difficult in a macro sense. There are a great deal of diverse variables that affect real estate prices. In addition, unlike the stock market, there is no national real estate market. All real estate is local, so national trends must be examined for your particular situation in light of the local realities in your community. Nevertheless, if you do your own due diligence and integrate local real estate data you uncover into national post-bubble trends, you should be able to emerge with a fairly good idea of where your local residential real estate prices might be heading. Adam Hamilton, CPA August 23, 2002 Do you enjoy these essays? Please subscribe to our acclaimed private Zeal Intelligence newsletter today to see the good stuff each month, including our specific stock and options trades based on our research! For more information ... Zeal Intelligence For a FREE sample ... FREE Samples! To subscribe ... 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Amazon.com: Quicken Rental Property Manager: Software Your Store Software See All 32 Product Categories   Your Account | Cart | Wish List | Help | browse brands & products | top sellers | new & future releases | children's software | games | electronics | outlet Search Amazon.com Software Web Search This item is not eligible for Amazon Prime, but over a million other items are. Join Amazon Prime today. Already a member? Sign in . ITEM INFORMATION Explore this item buying info system requirements product description customer reviews See more by this manufacturer Intuit Customers also bought these other items... Share your thoughts write a review write a So You'd Like to... guide tell a friend about this item Help us help others submit a manual RATE THIS ITEM I dislike it I love it! 1 2 3 4 5 Edit your ratings Visit the Books Store Every Landlord's Tax Deduction Guide by Stephen Fishman Get it for less! A9.com users save 1.57% on Amazon. Learn how . Have one to sell? Quicken Rental Property Manager Other products by Intuit This item is currently not available. Customers also shopped for these similar items . Platform: Windows XP / Me / 2000 Media: CD-ROM See more pictures | System requirements Features: Schedule E category list shows what's deductible. Designed for rental property owners; ideal for fewer than 10 rental properties Easily organize rental income and expenses in one place Two-step set up; simply install and enter basic property information Details property performance; instant answers to questions about profitability Manufacturers, merchants, and enthusiasts: Submit a product manual for this item. Amazon.com Sales Rank: Today: #1,494 in Software Yesterday: #1,418 in Software ASIN: B00078UK2I Item model number: 294120 Date first available at Amazon: December 27, 2004 Average Customer Review: Based on 5 reviews. Write a review . Popular in: Harrisburg, PA(#18) , Cape Coral, FL(#11) Customers who bought this itemalso bought these items: Quicken 2005 Premier Home & Business [Old Version] by Intuit Quicken 2005 Premier [Old Version] by Intuit Quicken Premier Home & Business 2006 by Intuit, Inc. Quicken Medical Expense Manager by Intuit, Inc. Explore Similar Items : 15 in Software , and 18 in Books What similar items do customers ultimately buy after viewing this item? 1% buy Real Estate Pro 4.1 by Multicast Media Pty Limited 1% buy MYOB Business Essentials Pro 2005 by MYOB US Explore Similar Items : 7 in Software , and 4 in Books Customers who viewed this itemalso viewed: Quicken Rental Property Manager 2.0 by Intuit Dolf De Roos' Real Estate Investor's College: Real Estate Investing for Everyone (Audio and DVD Success) by Topics Product Description From the Manufacturer Quicken Rental Property Manager, designed for rental property owners like you, lets you easily keep an ongoing record of your critical income and expenses. Quickly get the information you need at tax time, and take the deductions you deserve. With just a click, see how your properties are performing! Benefits: Organize all your information in one place. Replace shoeboxes, spreadsheets, folders, and hand-written information with one simple solution. Ideal for fewer than 10 rental properties. Track all your income, expenses, and tax information. While less than 10 properties is recommended, some users track over 40 rental properties with multiple units. Get the tax deductions you deserve. The Schedule E category list shows you what's deductible. See how your properties are performing. Get instant answers to your questions about profitability. Two steps and you're set up. Just install the software and enter basic information about your properties. Designed for and tested by rental property owners like you. That's why it's so easy to use! Plus, you get a 60-day money-back guarantee. One year* free technical support. Ask questions and give feedback at http://www.quickenrental.com/support. Features: Save time at tax time Save time retrieving financial information when you're doing taxes. No frantic searching for the right receipts and paid invoices at tax time! Easily categorize your financial information throughout the year using the income and expense log. And don't worry about having to do the math. Quicken Rental Property Manager automatically generates tax reports that you or your accountant can use to prepare your Schedule E tax forms. Maximize deductions Take every deduction you deserve. It's easy to capture allowable deductions all year as you record your expenses. You'll find your deductible expenses in the Schedule E category list. Flag deductions you're not sure about. Can't find the right category for a particular expense? Just choose "not sure", and at tax time you can print out a report for your accountant, who can help you make the right choices. Track your vehicle mileage with every entry. This is a deduction many property owners miss! Don't worry; we'll do all the calculations for you. See how your properties are doing Find out how your rental properties are performing. Which of your properties are profitable, or more profitable than the others? Find out if you're earning more than you're spending, or vice versa, by running reports that track your cash flow by each property over time. You'll have your answers in seconds. Compare performance month-by-month. You can check up on profitability for each property you own from one month to the next. Drill down for details. If you're not sure where a number in a report is coming from, just click on it. You'll be taken directly to the transaction that the number is based on. Get up and running in no time Two steps and you're set up. It's easy to get started. Just enter the basics--property names, the number of units per property--and start tracking your income and expenses right away. Our easy-to-use setup will guide you through the process. Memorized transactions cut down data entry. You won't have to enter similar data twice. Quicken Rental Property Manager remembers transactions and fills them in for you wherever applicable. One simple entry for mortgage payments. As you enter your monthly payments, don't worry about separating the interest from the principal. When you get your 1098, you can itemize the interest on the Tax Summary Report in one click. Designed for and tested by rental property owners like you. That's why it's so easy to use! Free technical support for one year*. Refer to the in-product help menu or visit http://www.quickenrental.com/support (or call 1-877-683-3274) to ask us questions or give us feedback at any time. *Offer available for one year from the date of purchase. Registration required. Additional terms, conditions, and limitations apply and are subject to change without notice. Quicken Rental Property Manager is a standalone product designed specifically to support the unique needs of rental property owners and at this point does not integrate with Quicken personal finance or TurboTax software. Product Description Organize your rental income and expenses in one place. New! Quicken Rental Property Manager, offers the easiest way to organize critical income and expense records in one place. We’ll help you eliminate the paperwork hassles, making tax preparation a much easier process. •Integration with Quicken® Personal Finance or Turbo Tax® software is not available. See all product description... Spotlight Reviews (What's this?) Write an online review and share your thoughts with other customers. 58 of 63 people found the following review helpful: User Unfriendly , March 29, 2005 Reviewer: Ryan P. Mcgovern (St. Paul, MN)- See all my reviews Poor program. It is not compatable with any other quicken software, and does not allow for any bank/ccard downloads. You need to enter each item individually, making it very time consuming. This is no better than a simple excel spreadsheet. Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) 53 of 55 people found the following review helpful: More of what you don't need, none of what you do. Can I give it a negative star? , June 23, 2005 Reviewer: PBNTOAU "pbntoau" (Illinois)- See all my reviews I've been managing rental property for about 15 years, starting with 2 buildings and 10 units at the beginning and now with 25 units in 5 buildings, containing a mix from studios and 1-bedrooms up to 4-bedroom apartments. I recently decided to update from a very old version of Quicken, and since they had this program specifically for rental properties, I thought I'd found a perfect match. I couldn't have been more wrong. You would think that a company that has made accounting software for this long would understand the most basic needs, like a running total alongside each transaction (which even my 7-year old edition of Quicken had). Nope. There is only a single running total. Make a mistake, and it is virtually impossible to backtrack and find. How about a field for your check number, the singular way to identify your checks/transactions? It doesn't have one. One of the 8 or so automatic fields they do give you is unit number. Problem is, it's a simple numeric assignment based on the number of units you input when you create each building's account, and it can't be altered. Apartments lettered instead of numbered, numbered in partial sequence, alpha-numeric, by floors, cardinal direction, etc? Tough luck. These are just a few of the problems or basic design flaws I've come across. It took several painstaking hours to transfer the entries from my old software and books into this new software, and now I'm stuck until I either find the time to transfer the data to something I trust, or I continue to use this program until the end of the year. It's half baked, and that's putting it lightly. I wouldn't recommend it for even the most entry-level rental property owners or managers. I can't imagine a big firm using it. Regular quicken costs half as much (though even that's getting horrible reviews on Amazon). The previous reviewer said it's no better than a simple excel spread sheet. I'd go further and say it's worse. Save your time and money, and just create a simple excel file. Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) All Customer Reviews Average Customer Review: Write an online review and share your thoughts with other customers. 1 of 1 people found the following review helpful: Program stinks! , November 16, 2005 Reviewer: Robert J. Uyttebroek "Disgusted with Intuit" - See all my reviews I bought the software about a month ago. Everything was working fine until a prompt for an update came across. The update process removed the aplication from my computer. Attempts to re-install the product were fruitless. The program is now worthless. Attempts to get a response from Intuit were also fruitless. Last time I buy an Intuit product and my advise is for everyone not to buy this worthless product and any other Intuit product. Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) 2 of 2 people found the following review helpful: Better than Paper, But Not Full Featured like Quicken , November 9, 2005 Reviewer: William Perez "About.com Guide to Tax Planning" (San Francisco, CA United States)- See all my reviews QRPM is a stand-alone software program for tracking rental income and expenses. It does not integrate with Quicken, Quickbooks, or Excel. It does allow you to export to TurboTax, but that's the extent of integration. QRPM is designed to replace paper-based systems, such as ledgers, envelopes, scratch paper, and checklists. This is not a full-fledged accounting software, so if you are looking for robust bookkeeping features (online banking downloads, bill payments, cost basis accounting), you are better off spending a few hours to customize Quicken or Quickbooks. Otherwise, for what QRPM does, it does well. In Version 2 you can add up to 100 properties and up to 100 units per property. You can name your units anything you want (such as "24A," or "Garage"). QRPM is designed to track rents and basic expenses. You can quickly see which tenants have paid, who hasn't paid, who has paid late, and which leases are expiring. QRPM is great at tracking this basic information. For anything more advanced, you'll want to develop customized categories (in Quicken) or accounts (in Quickbooks) along with customized reports to get a quick overview of your rental properties. Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) 9 of 9 people found the following review helpful: Like a spreadsheet, but less useful , September 11, 2005 Reviewer: W. Lundin - See all my reviews This Rental Property Manager is like having one register for each property to track credits and debits. Some reports. Thats it. Using the regular Quicken Basic, with a Banking account and a Property/Asset account, works better and gives you a way to compare operating expenses, income, mortgage/loan information, and property value. Since its scope is limited, having shorter lists of categories and tax schedules and lines to worry about than in the regular Quicken software, but the limited scope and higher cost for a focused subset of Quicken Basic? Not so useful. Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) See all 5 customer reviews... So You'd Like To... Work Less and Earn More :by carlamarie , Business Guru BE A REAL ESTATE INVESTOR :by G. 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