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Towards Liberty International Society for Individual Liberty > Don't Get Stuck Paying "Zombie" Debt – Towards Liberty – A commentary on current events by Jarret Wollstein The Coming Real Estate Collapse – 05-24-05 – As real estate prices in much of the U.S. continues to soar, evidence is growing that both commercial and residential real estate is greatly over-priced in many of the country's hottest markets – including New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., Miami, and much of California. One clear indication that real estate is overpriced is that rents are now a fraction of mortgage payments, and are continuing to fall in terms of real dollars. For instance, Forbes reports that cash return on income-producing real estate has fallen from 9% a few years ago, to just 5% to 7% now, and is likely to go lower. You can clearly see why rents are falling in overheated markets like California's Silicon Valley. In the San Francisco-San Jos corridor, there is currently over 33 million square feet of un-rented (and in many cases never occupied) commercial space. Last year, just 65 thousand square feet of this enormous inventory was rented. At that rate, it will take over 507 years to rent all unoccupied commercial real estate in Silicon Valley. Since most investors can't wait over half a millennium for returns on their capital, what's more likely is that commercial real estate prices in this "hot market" will soon fall like a rock. Another indication that real estate is poised for a fall, that fewer and fewer people can afford today's astronomically-priced houses. For instance, in California – where ordinary 2,000 square foot, 3-bedroom homes are going for $500,000 to $2,000,000+ – less than one family in six now qualifies to repurchase their own house. Another indications that real estate is ready for a fall: Of 362 U.S. metropolitan areas, about 15% are experiencing a housing "boom" – a three-year, inflation adjusted price gain of 30% or more – according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That's the highest number of boom markets ever recorded in the 30 years that they have been tracked. In Americas hottest real estate markets – including the big cities in New York, Florida and California – housing prices went up by 15% to 35% in the past year alone. This is clearly unsustainable. No matter how low interest rates are and no matter how many schemes George Bush comes up with for an "ownership society," it's clear that we are rapidly reaching the point when hardly anyone can afford to buy a new house in a hot real estate market, without putting their financial future in jeopardy. So what's propping up the real estate bubble, and causing housing prices to go ever-higher, even as rents fall and commercial landlords face enormous vacancy rates? Besides artificially low interest rates, the answer, in a word, is speculation. Up to one residence in three in California is now purchased not to live in, but for resale, according to the San Francisco Chronicle . The comparable figure may be as high as one property in two in the Las Vegas area. In downtown Miami, 80% of approximately 35,000 new condos now under construction or just completed, are owned by investors – not people who actually plan on living in them – according to MoneyNews.com. Call it the triumph of delusion over reality. I can't tell you how many people have told me that real estate price "can't fall, because if they did, they would be bankrupt." In other words, because they want prices to stay up, they must stay up. If you believe that, there is a nice three-bedroom fixer-upper on a dirt lot, and on the edge of an eroding cliff, in Pacifica, California, I'd like to sell you for just $2.5 million. Buy this bargain now, before the price really goes up! (This is a real example.) In the current frenzied real market, self-delusion is rampant. In Florida's red-hot real estate market, one Miami realtor recently told the New York Times , "South Florida is working off a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past." That's precisely what executives of dot coms told investors to justify their astronomical stock prices, just before the collapse – which triggered the destruction of over $3 trillion in stock value. Unfortunately, for many overextended home owners, property prices aren't immune to the laws of economics. Property prices can and do fall in America, as witnessed by the bear markets of 1974-75, 1980-82 and 1990-92. A personal example: One Northern California home owner I know bought his 2,000 sq. ft. house for $750,000 in 1989. In 1992, he was couldn't get $450,000 for his property, and was forced to declare bankruptcy after he lost his job. Millions of overextended American families with "interest only" and adjustable rate mortgages will likely find themselves in the same boat, when mortgage interest rates edge up above 7% or 8% – which is likely by the end of this year. (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that we can expect at least a 2.25% increase in interest rates in 2005, on top of the 2% increase in 2004.) The brutal financial reality is that a mere 2% rise in mortgage rates, can increase ARM payments by as much as 40% – an unsustainable burden for families living on the edge. One way or another, at best , the U.S. real estate bubble has 1 to 2 more years to run before it collapses. If you or your children are among those living in overpriced homes you can barely afford, NOW is the time to sell, when the market is at or near its peak, and before prices drop by 30% or more – and they find themselves living in a Motel 6 or in your basement. To minimize taxes on the profits, reinvest in a home in a small town or rural area where prices arent so absurd, and bank the rest. Please stay in touch! Add yourself to our e-mail list. Two times per month we send an update on the activities of our members and new features at ISIL.org. Simply enter your e-mail address here and click the button. You can easily remove yourself (unsubscribe) at any time. E-mail us at isil@isil.org if you have any personal questions or comments. E-mail address: Subscribe Unsubscribe

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Real Estate Investment Ideas? New Search Advanced Search Hot Property The real story on real estate BLOGS Blogspotting Brand New Day Byte of the Apple Deal Flow Economics Unbound Fine On Media Hot Property NussbaumOnDesign Tech Beat BLOG RSS FEEDS About RSS Blogspotting Brand New Day Byte of the Apple Deal Flow Economics Unbound Fine On Media Hot Property Nussbaum On Design Tech Beat PREMIUM CONTENT MBA Insider ONLINE FEATURES Book Reviews BW Video Columnists Interactive Gallery Newsletters Past Covers Philanthropy Podcasts Special Reports TECHNOLOGY Product Reviews Startups Special Reports Tech Stats Wildstrom: Tech Maven SMALLBIZ Smart Answers Success Stories Today's Tip Trailblazing Companies INVESTING Annual Reports BW 50 S&P Picks & Pans Stock Screeners Free S&P Stock Report SCOREBOARDS Mutual Funds Info Tech 100 S&P 500/BW 50 B-SCHOOLS MBA Profiles MBA Rankings Who's Hiring Grads BW EXTRAS BW Digital BW Online Alerts Handheld Edition RSS Feeds Reprints/Permissions Conferences Investor Workshops BUSINESS DIRECTORY -- Find local experts in: « Cooling in California | Main | Land Sales Could Slow » October 28, 2005 Real Estate Investment Ideas? Peter Coy Every December, BusinessWeek publishes an investment guide for the year ahead. This year I'm doing the real estate story. Here's the question my editors want me to answer: Are there still any real estate bargains out there? What do you think? Any U.S. cities where house prices still have room to rise? ( Youngstown ?) Any countries where real estate is still relatively cheap? ( Germany ?) Condos feel kind of pricey lately, but are there still deals to be had? What about REITs? If you like REITs, which kinds? Name names, please. Remember, it's not enough to say that an investment costs less. You have to make the case that it's likely to go up in price and/or throw off a lot of cash in the next year. Be prepared to defend your choices because at least someone reading this blog is bound to disagree with whatever you say. I'm thinking of giving a prize to the Hot Property reader who comes up with the idea that works out the best over the next year. Let's say, either 100 acres of midtown Manhattan real estate or a paper crown labeled Real Estate Emperor. My choice. So ... send in those ideas and start arguing with each other. 04:56 PM Investing in Real Estate Trackback Pings TrackBack URL for this entry: http://blogs.businessweek.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/ Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Real Estate Investment Ideas? : » Business Week posts "Hot Property" Real Estate Contest from Pacesetter Mortgage Blog Peter Coy, over at the Business Week Hot Property Blog, is posting a Real Estate Investment contest of sorts. His question is this, Are there still any real estate bargains out there? I will put my hat in the ring [Read More] Tracked on October 29, 2005 12:06 PM » The US Real Estate Market from Adam Dudley This article at Business Week Online caused me to post my thoughts about the US real estate investing market. With rising interest rates and a multitude of home owners using deadly interest only loans and ARM's in the US, there [Read More] Tracked on October 31, 2005 09:25 AM Comments how about being a contrarian, and invest in the tanking market. For example, buy puts or short homebuilders and the credit agencies that have the largest exposure. Posted by: bradley jellerichs at October 28, 2005 06:37 PM I'll start the brawling by saying that I'm pretty darn bullish on the Seattle market. My reasoning? It's the economy... With Boeing and Microsoft doing a wonderful job of holding down the fort, and a thriving start-up vibe (in real estate alone, there is Zillow, Redfin, and HouseValues), it seems like enough of the area residents will be flush with cash for the near future to keep prices rising. And while Seattle has definitely seen some growth in the recent past, things have never gotten out of control like they have in the Bay Area. Because I really want to win the 100 acres in Manhattan (or at least an Emperor crown!), I'll get a little more specific. I'd invest in a starter home (~$350K) in the Ballard neighborhood. Of course I'm only speculating, but I think that a home like this still has plenty of room to grow in the near future (i.e. one year). Posted by: Dustin at October 31, 2005 01:30 AM OK, so far I have Maricopa County, Ariz., and Seattle. I have "short the homebuilders." I also got a very intelligent email from someone suggesting a narrow segment of REITs--ones with low debt/equity ratios that get most of their income from leasing buildings to companies in healthy industry sectors. What else? Posted by: Peter Coy at October 31, 2005 05:23 PM First, I have put aside some cash ($50k) in my money market account. I also have on my current house a 15-Year fixed mortgage (50% loan-to-value) with really affordable monthly mortgage payment. Finally, I have no plan to move out for at least 5 years. Second, I opened an (still untapped) equity line of credit on my current home (200k, about half of the equity in my house). And now, guess who will be a major player in the foreclosure market in my county after the housing boom goes bust. Assuming a worst case scenario of a 25% decline in valuation in the years following the bust, my remaining equity stake will vanish but I compensated for that by buying $20,000 worth of premium on OTM put options (CTX Jan08 45 Put for example) on the 2 big home builders in my county. Posted by: the contrarian at October 31, 2005 11:04 PM The conventional wisdom is that "as interest rates rise, real estate values must decline, and so to must REITs." The problem with this CW is that it is too simple, and it doesn't take into account the wide variation in the various types of REITs out there. If rising interest rates and the risk of a "real estate bubble" is a concern, then it is possible to screen for REITs that minimize that risk. For example, if we look at REITs that have low debt/equity ratios and derive their income mostly from leasing properties to other businesses, those REITs will be less sensitive to land valuation and interest rates. These success of these REITs are more dependent on the segment they lease to, such as healthcare, retail, etc. I ran a screen looking for REITs with debt/equity ratio less than 0.5 and whose income is tied to leases. Some promising candidates include Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT). Leases out 43 medical buildings in the Southwest (where there are plenty of retirees and demand for medical services), has a debt/equity ratio of 0.23. Dividend yield is 6.5% and UHT has steadily increased their dividend over the years. A similar healthcare REIT is LTC Properties Inc. (LTC), with 200 senior long-term care facilities, a debt/equity ratio of 0.23 and a divident yield of 6.6%. Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT). Owns and leases hotel and motels to various national chains such as Courtyard by Marriott and Candlewood Suites. Debt to equity is 0.49. Has more debt than I'd like but income from operations has been increasing. Good dividend payer at 7.4%. Correctional Properties Trust (CPV). Leases out 12 prison facilites and has no debt, with a dividend yield of 6.5%. The leases are long-term and include rent increases tied to the CPI. Given the latest White House shenanigans this may be a real growth industry. Interestingly, there were no residential REITs that met my low debt criteria. Many of them have debt/equity ratios greater than one. I believe those REITs are to be avoided. Posted by: Jim in Calif at October 31, 2005 11:06 PM Ernest and Young's Steven Friedman told real estate editors at the National Assn. of Realtors annual convention that the best places to buy a condo in today's market are: Jacksonville, FL Austin, TX Boise, ID Friedman said his choices are based on job growth, affordability, and quality of life. Posted by: Frances Flynn Thorsen at November 1, 2005 06:14 AM Is land still a good buy anywhere? Great comment by Boe Clark about land over on the "Land Sales Could Slow" thread (justly accusing me of being vague). Here's what he wrote: The blogger speaks of land (improved and unimproved I assume), as if it were a homogeneous commodity. Prices are going down...in which markets? In Florida, Arizona, and Texas? Or in California and Colorado? In urban, sub urban, ag, commerically zoned, or residentially zoned land? 10 miles, or twenty miles, from population centers? In urban infill areas? With or without utilities/services? Generalities get us nowhere...specifics you can use to make prudent investment decisions with. Posted by: Peter Coy at November 1, 2005 10:36 AM Here's an Idea: Wait on the housing market and slowly move towards equities. There's some bet up stocks that could bought for a song. Posted by: Joe at November 3, 2005 01:27 PM It probably doesn’t bode well for the real estate market that there are not a lot of investment ideas! Posted by: Dustin at November 3, 2005 04:15 PM What about fixing up and renting or selling dilapidated properties in out-of-favor markets? Somebody in that business emailed me with that suggestion. Seems like it could be a good deal for people who don't mind supplementing their cash with elbow grease. Posted by: Peter Coy at November 3, 2005 06:00 PM Forget the US. Japan's real estate market is rip-roaring. Posted by: Taro Akasaka at November 3, 2005 11:15 PM 1. REITs holding a lot of mid level apartment buildings (where the former homeowners in CA will be moving once the number of foreclosures exceeds 100,000 in the state). 2. REITs specializing in self storage facilities. These units rent for the same price per square foot as apartments, but cost a fraction of the cost to build and maintain and are enormously profitable. Again, demand will soar as the number of foreclosures in CA exceeds 100,000. The number of foreclosures in CA WILL exceed 100,000 now that rates are rising and the I/O speculators and such will be driven out of the market as will so many first time buyers who have been sold these disastrous loans (half of buyers in San Diego and 2/3 of buyers statewide for the past 18 months). Posted by: Dave at November 8, 2005 06:58 PM Are we talking about investments (say 5-7% compounding growth over 20 years) or speculation (dreams of 100% inflation over 1 year)? I like the idea of getting a positive cash flow with 20% down and then watching 5-7% appreciation over 20 years. Summit County, Colorado, is 90 miles west of Denver and another mile higher. From 2001 to 2005, prices were flat, since demand equaled supply. Since January of 2005, demand has increased and prices are starting to climb sharply. Summit County has a great location, great weather, and spectacular scenery, yet is much less expensive than Aspen and Vail. To me it looks like a great bet. Posted by: DaveB at November 12, 2005 04:32 PM Bulgaria is the hottest real estate market in Europe. http://www.thepropertyinvestorsclub.co.uk/pic-bulgarian-property-investment.htm http://www.thepropertyinvestorsclub.co.uk/property-investment-tracker.htm http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/06/global_real_est.html http://bbtbulgaria.blogspot.com Posted by: Dimitar Vesselinov at November 19, 2005 09:21 PM How about India; bungalos on the beach near major cities. Bocas in Panama? Or, Tibet, near Changdu. Those are my bets. Douglas Posted by: Douglas at December 12, 2005 02:55 AM Post a comment Name: Email Address: URL: Comments: Recent Posts New and Improved In 2006, a Harsher Reality for Realty A Gloomy Christmas for Real Estate? The Reflex Effect Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up Recent Comments Cooling in California (6) Housing Numbers Continue to Surprise (9) Neg Am Mortgages (6) Taxpayer-backed mortgages for undocumented immigrants? (5) No mass exodus from the Golden State (12) Short Countrywide? (1) A Gloomy Christmas for Real Estate? (1) Washington DC bubble? (214) Riskiest housing markets (6) Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up (2) Recent Trackbacks Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up (1) More New Homes for Sale (1) A Fun Website for Checking Affordability (1) Impact of higher mortgage rates? (2) Making Sense of Average Mortgage Rates (1) A Less Curvaceous Yield Curve (2) The Westchester Tease (1) More Option ARMs and Alt-A Loans (1) Real Estate Investment Ideas? (2) Boston housing...on the rise???? (1) Categories Affordability Amey's adventures in real estate Bubbles Cali is Doomed Demographics Economy Estate Planning Foreclosures Home builders Housing Prices Investing in Real Estate Mortgage Rates Mortgages Real Estate Culture Refinancing Regions Remodeling Selling Archives December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 Subscribe RSS Feed  

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Amazon.co.uk: The Complete Guide to Buying Property in Spain: Buying, Renting, Letting and Selling: Books BOOK SEARCH BROWSE CATEGORIES SPECIAL OFFERS TOP SELLERS AUDIO BOOKS Paperbacks 3 for £12 NEW & USED TEXTBOOKS HARRY POTTER SELL YOUR BOOKS All Products -Books -Used Books -Collectable Books All Subjects -Art, Architecture & Photography -Audio Cassettes -Audio CDs -Biography -Business, Finance & Law -Children's Books -Comics & Graphic Novels -Computers & Internet -Crime, Thrillers & Mystery -Fiction -Food & Drink -Gay & Lesbian -Health, Family & Lifestyle -History -Home & Garden -Horror -Humour -Mind, Body & Spirit -Music, Stage & Screen -Poetry, Drama & Criticism -Reference & Languages -Religion & Spirituality -Romance -Science & Nature -Science Fiction & Fantasy -Scientific, Technical & Medical -Society, Politics & Philosophy -Sports, Hobbies & Games -Travel & Holiday -Young Adult All Subjects Art, Architecture & Photography Audio Cassettes Audio CDs Biography Business, Finance & Law Children's Books Comics & Graphic Novels Computers & Internet Crime, Thrillers & Mystery Education & Languages Fiction Food & Drink Gay & Lesbian Health, Family & Lifestyle History Home & Garden Horror Humour Mind, Body & Spirit Music, Stage & Screen Poetry, Drama & Criticism Reference Religion & Spirituality Romance Science & Nature Science Fiction & Fantasy Scientific, Technical & Medical Society, Politics & Philosophy Sports, Hobbies & Games Travel & Holiday Young Adult BOOKS INFO At A Glance Reviews Customer Reviews Search Inside! See more by this author E-mail a Friend About This Item Recommendations If you already own this, rate it and improve your recommendations , Not Rated Visit the Music shop Hopes and Fears ~ Keane (Artist) Find a huge selection of books at 30% off Become an Associate Join our Associates Programme and make money from your website! The Complete Guide to Buying Property in Spain: Buying, Renting, Letting and Selling Charles Davey Search inside this book List Price: £9.99 Our Price: £6.99 & eligible for Free UK delivery on orders over £15 with Super Saver Delivery. See details & conditions . You Save: £3.00 (30%) Availability: usually dispatched within 24 hours. 32 Used & New from £5.62 See larger photo Edition: Paperback More Product Details Perfect Partner Buy The Complete Guide to Buying Property in Spain: Buying,... with Buy to Let in Spain: How to Invest in Spanish Prop... today! Total List Price: £20.98 Buy Together Today: £14.68 Customers who bought this item also bought: Buying a Home in Spain 2005 ;Paperback~David Hampshire Property Hotspots in Spain: The Hottest Property Locations in the Sunny Costas and How to Invest in Them ;Paperback~Ajay Ahuja Living and Working in Spain ;Paperback~Survival The Complete Guide to Buying a Property in Spain ;Hardcover~Anthony Ivor Foster How to Buy Spanish Property ;Paperback~B.M. Spencer-Higgins, Helen Carter Explore similar items ... Product Details: Paperback 256 pages(July 1, 2004) Publisher: Kogan Page Language: English ISBN: 0749440562 Category(ies): Home & Garden , Travel & Holiday Average Customer Review: | Write a review Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 15,785 (Publishers and authors: improve your sales ) sign in to turn on 1-Click™ ordering. 24 New from 5.62 8 used from 6.69 Have one to sell? (We'll set one up for you) View my Wish List . Reviews —LAM (Living Abroad Magazine), June 2005 "Full of information on the language, inheritance laws, health and education and other useful stuff." Synopsis Written by a practicing barrister, this text offers people considering relocating to Spain practical advice on buying, renting, letting, and selling property there. Sample topics include choosing a location, financing the purchase, adapting to the country's lifestyle, and setting up a business. It also features flight information, maps, and an asso See all reviews... New! Search Inside! ( Learn More ) Search inside this book: You can view sample pages from this book. Customer Reviews Avg. Customer Review: Write an online review and share your thoughts with other shoppers! 12 of 12 people found the following review helpful: THOROUGH AND INFORMATIVE , January 10, 2005 Reviewer: robert raines from UK I found this book particularly clear and very well set out. Information is easy to find. The author covers the main points that I needed to know, and really gets to grips with the central issues of buying property in Spain - especially new property. The book contains crucial advice on inheritance and wealth tax.We found the information on settling in very good,especially the sections on learing Spanish and schooling in Spain. An excellent book that I can highly recommend! Was this review helpful to you? 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Home Loan Program DISASTER

Information on the VA Home Loan Program Information on the Home Loan Program HomeOwnership Education for First Time Buyers Am I Eligible for a VA Loan? Property Management Construction and Valuation Lenders & Servicers Contact VA Loan Guaranty Service Forms Loan Guaranty HomePage VBA HomePage VA Homepage If You Owe VA VA Monitoring Unit Loan Production Specially Adapted Housing Information on the Home Loan Program DISASTER ADVICE FOR VETERAN HOMEOWNERS Thinking of Buying, Selling or Refinancing a Home These short videos explain what you need to know as a Veteran. Pamphlets on the VA Home Loan Program On-line copies of VA Home Loan Pamphlets. HomeOwnership Education for First Time Buyers Valuable information for first time homebuyers from the Ginnie Mae HomeOwnership Center. Frequently Asked Questions Answers to questions most frequently asked about the VA Home Loan program. About the Loan Guaranty Service The VA Loan Guaranty Service is the organization within the Veterans Benefits Administration charged with the responsibility of administering the home loan program. See an independent evaluation of the Loan Guaranty program here: Final Report / Final Report Appendices Information on Specially Adapted Housing for disabled veterans Click here for information on the Special Adapted Housing program for certain seriously disabled veterans. VA Regional Loan Centers Addresses, telephone numbers & websites of our Regional Loan Centers. Contact VA Loan Guaranty Service E-mail Loan Guaranty Service VA Approved Lenders Find a VA approved lender in your home town area using our E-lenders nationwide query. Interest Rate Reduction Refinancing Loans Have interest rates fallen since you obtained your VA loan? Do you have an Adjustable Rate VA loan that you want to convert to a fixed rate loan? The IRRRL program, also called the VA streamlined refinancing program, may be for you. No appraisal or underwriting is required and a certificate of eligibility is not necessary. If You Have Trouble Making Your Payments If you have a VA loan but are having trouble making your mortgage payments, it is very important that you take steps to avoid a foreclosure. VA may be able to help. Information for Elderly Homeowners Information for Elderly Homeowners covers Reverse Mortgages, Interest Rate Reduction Refinancing Loans, and Home Equity Fraud. VA Direct Home Loans for Native American Veterans Living on Trust lands VA direct home loans are available to eligible Native American veterans who wish to purchase or construct a home on trust lands. Information on the Home Loan Program / Am I Eligible for a VA Loan? / Property Management Construction and Valuation / Lenders & Servicers / Contact VA Loan Guaranty Service / Forms Loan Guaranty HomePage / If you owe VA / Monitoring Unit / Loan Production / SAH Disclaimer / Privacy & Security Statement / Freedom of Information Act Contact the VA / VBA HomePage / VA HomePage This page has been accessed since February 16, 2003. Reviewed/Updated: September 28, 2005 (kt)