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Real Estate Investment Ideas? New Search Advanced Search Hot Property The real story on real estate BLOGS Blogspotting Brand New Day Byte of the Apple Deal Flow Economics Unbound Fine On Media Hot Property NussbaumOnDesign Tech Beat BLOG RSS FEEDS About RSS Blogspotting Brand New Day Byte of the Apple Deal Flow Economics Unbound Fine On Media Hot Property Nussbaum On Design Tech Beat PREMIUM CONTENT MBA Insider ONLINE FEATURES Book Reviews BW Video Columnists Interactive Gallery Newsletters Past Covers Philanthropy Podcasts Special Reports TECHNOLOGY Product Reviews Startups Special Reports Tech Stats Wildstrom: Tech Maven SMALLBIZ Smart Answers Success Stories Today's Tip Trailblazing Companies INVESTING Annual Reports BW 50 S&P Picks & Pans Stock Screeners Free S&P Stock Report SCOREBOARDS Mutual Funds Info Tech 100 S&P 500/BW 50 B-SCHOOLS MBA Profiles MBA Rankings Who's Hiring Grads BW EXTRAS BW Digital BW Online Alerts Handheld Edition RSS Feeds Reprints/Permissions Conferences Investor Workshops BUSINESS DIRECTORY -- Find local experts in: « Cooling in California | Main | Land Sales Could Slow » October 28, 2005 Real Estate Investment Ideas? Peter Coy Every December, BusinessWeek publishes an investment guide for the year ahead. This year I'm doing the real estate story. Here's the question my editors want me to answer: Are there still any real estate bargains out there? What do you think? Any U.S. cities where house prices still have room to rise? ( Youngstown ?) Any countries where real estate is still relatively cheap? ( Germany ?) Condos feel kind of pricey lately, but are there still deals to be had? What about REITs? If you like REITs, which kinds? Name names, please. Remember, it's not enough to say that an investment costs less. You have to make the case that it's likely to go up in price and/or throw off a lot of cash in the next year. Be prepared to defend your choices because at least someone reading this blog is bound to disagree with whatever you say. I'm thinking of giving a prize to the Hot Property reader who comes up with the idea that works out the best over the next year. Let's say, either 100 acres of midtown Manhattan real estate or a paper crown labeled Real Estate Emperor. My choice. So ... send in those ideas and start arguing with each other. 04:56 PM Investing in Real Estate Trackback Pings TrackBack URL for this entry: http://blogs.businessweek.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/ Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Real Estate Investment Ideas? : » Business Week posts "Hot Property" Real Estate Contest from Pacesetter Mortgage Blog Peter Coy, over at the Business Week Hot Property Blog, is posting a Real Estate Investment contest of sorts. His question is this, Are there still any real estate bargains out there? I will put my hat in the ring [Read More] Tracked on October 29, 2005 12:06 PM » The US Real Estate Market from Adam Dudley This article at Business Week Online caused me to post my thoughts about the US real estate investing market. With rising interest rates and a multitude of home owners using deadly interest only loans and ARM's in the US, there [Read More] Tracked on October 31, 2005 09:25 AM Comments how about being a contrarian, and invest in the tanking market. For example, buy puts or short homebuilders and the credit agencies that have the largest exposure. Posted by: bradley jellerichs at October 28, 2005 06:37 PM I'll start the brawling by saying that I'm pretty darn bullish on the Seattle market. My reasoning? It's the economy... With Boeing and Microsoft doing a wonderful job of holding down the fort, and a thriving start-up vibe (in real estate alone, there is Zillow, Redfin, and HouseValues), it seems like enough of the area residents will be flush with cash for the near future to keep prices rising. And while Seattle has definitely seen some growth in the recent past, things have never gotten out of control like they have in the Bay Area. Because I really want to win the 100 acres in Manhattan (or at least an Emperor crown!), I'll get a little more specific. I'd invest in a starter home (~$350K) in the Ballard neighborhood. Of course I'm only speculating, but I think that a home like this still has plenty of room to grow in the near future (i.e. one year). Posted by: Dustin at October 31, 2005 01:30 AM OK, so far I have Maricopa County, Ariz., and Seattle. I have "short the homebuilders." I also got a very intelligent email from someone suggesting a narrow segment of REITs--ones with low debt/equity ratios that get most of their income from leasing buildings to companies in healthy industry sectors. What else? Posted by: Peter Coy at October 31, 2005 05:23 PM First, I have put aside some cash ($50k) in my money market account. I also have on my current house a 15-Year fixed mortgage (50% loan-to-value) with really affordable monthly mortgage payment. Finally, I have no plan to move out for at least 5 years. Second, I opened an (still untapped) equity line of credit on my current home (200k, about half of the equity in my house). And now, guess who will be a major player in the foreclosure market in my county after the housing boom goes bust. Assuming a worst case scenario of a 25% decline in valuation in the years following the bust, my remaining equity stake will vanish but I compensated for that by buying $20,000 worth of premium on OTM put options (CTX Jan08 45 Put for example) on the 2 big home builders in my county. Posted by: the contrarian at October 31, 2005 11:04 PM The conventional wisdom is that "as interest rates rise, real estate values must decline, and so to must REITs." The problem with this CW is that it is too simple, and it doesn't take into account the wide variation in the various types of REITs out there. If rising interest rates and the risk of a "real estate bubble" is a concern, then it is possible to screen for REITs that minimize that risk. For example, if we look at REITs that have low debt/equity ratios and derive their income mostly from leasing properties to other businesses, those REITs will be less sensitive to land valuation and interest rates. These success of these REITs are more dependent on the segment they lease to, such as healthcare, retail, etc. I ran a screen looking for REITs with debt/equity ratio less than 0.5 and whose income is tied to leases. Some promising candidates include Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT). Leases out 43 medical buildings in the Southwest (where there are plenty of retirees and demand for medical services), has a debt/equity ratio of 0.23. Dividend yield is 6.5% and UHT has steadily increased their dividend over the years. A similar healthcare REIT is LTC Properties Inc. (LTC), with 200 senior long-term care facilities, a debt/equity ratio of 0.23 and a divident yield of 6.6%. Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT). Owns and leases hotel and motels to various national chains such as Courtyard by Marriott and Candlewood Suites. Debt to equity is 0.49. Has more debt than I'd like but income from operations has been increasing. Good dividend payer at 7.4%. Correctional Properties Trust (CPV). Leases out 12 prison facilites and has no debt, with a dividend yield of 6.5%. The leases are long-term and include rent increases tied to the CPI. Given the latest White House shenanigans this may be a real growth industry. Interestingly, there were no residential REITs that met my low debt criteria. Many of them have debt/equity ratios greater than one. I believe those REITs are to be avoided. Posted by: Jim in Calif at October 31, 2005 11:06 PM Ernest and Young's Steven Friedman told real estate editors at the National Assn. of Realtors annual convention that the best places to buy a condo in today's market are: Jacksonville, FL Austin, TX Boise, ID Friedman said his choices are based on job growth, affordability, and quality of life. Posted by: Frances Flynn Thorsen at November 1, 2005 06:14 AM Is land still a good buy anywhere? Great comment by Boe Clark about land over on the "Land Sales Could Slow" thread (justly accusing me of being vague). Here's what he wrote: The blogger speaks of land (improved and unimproved I assume), as if it were a homogeneous commodity. Prices are going down...in which markets? In Florida, Arizona, and Texas? Or in California and Colorado? In urban, sub urban, ag, commerically zoned, or residentially zoned land? 10 miles, or twenty miles, from population centers? In urban infill areas? With or without utilities/services? Generalities get us nowhere...specifics you can use to make prudent investment decisions with. Posted by: Peter Coy at November 1, 2005 10:36 AM Here's an Idea: Wait on the housing market and slowly move towards equities. There's some bet up stocks that could bought for a song. Posted by: Joe at November 3, 2005 01:27 PM It probably doesn’t bode well for the real estate market that there are not a lot of investment ideas! Posted by: Dustin at November 3, 2005 04:15 PM What about fixing up and renting or selling dilapidated properties in out-of-favor markets? Somebody in that business emailed me with that suggestion. Seems like it could be a good deal for people who don't mind supplementing their cash with elbow grease. Posted by: Peter Coy at November 3, 2005 06:00 PM Forget the US. Japan's real estate market is rip-roaring. Posted by: Taro Akasaka at November 3, 2005 11:15 PM 1. REITs holding a lot of mid level apartment buildings (where the former homeowners in CA will be moving once the number of foreclosures exceeds 100,000 in the state). 2. REITs specializing in self storage facilities. These units rent for the same price per square foot as apartments, but cost a fraction of the cost to build and maintain and are enormously profitable. Again, demand will soar as the number of foreclosures in CA exceeds 100,000. The number of foreclosures in CA WILL exceed 100,000 now that rates are rising and the I/O speculators and such will be driven out of the market as will so many first time buyers who have been sold these disastrous loans (half of buyers in San Diego and 2/3 of buyers statewide for the past 18 months). Posted by: Dave at November 8, 2005 06:58 PM Are we talking about investments (say 5-7% compounding growth over 20 years) or speculation (dreams of 100% inflation over 1 year)? I like the idea of getting a positive cash flow with 20% down and then watching 5-7% appreciation over 20 years. Summit County, Colorado, is 90 miles west of Denver and another mile higher. From 2001 to 2005, prices were flat, since demand equaled supply. Since January of 2005, demand has increased and prices are starting to climb sharply. Summit County has a great location, great weather, and spectacular scenery, yet is much less expensive than Aspen and Vail. To me it looks like a great bet. Posted by: DaveB at November 12, 2005 04:32 PM Bulgaria is the hottest real estate market in Europe. http://www.thepropertyinvestorsclub.co.uk/pic-bulgarian-property-investment.htm http://www.thepropertyinvestorsclub.co.uk/property-investment-tracker.htm http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/06/global_real_est.html http://bbtbulgaria.blogspot.com Posted by: Dimitar Vesselinov at November 19, 2005 09:21 PM How about India; bungalos on the beach near major cities. Bocas in Panama? Or, Tibet, near Changdu. Those are my bets. Douglas Posted by: Douglas at December 12, 2005 02:55 AM Post a comment Name: Email Address: URL: Comments: Recent Posts New and Improved In 2006, a Harsher Reality for Realty A Gloomy Christmas for Real Estate? The Reflex Effect Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up Recent Comments Cooling in California (6) Housing Numbers Continue to Surprise (9) Neg Am Mortgages (6) Taxpayer-backed mortgages for undocumented immigrants? (5) No mass exodus from the Golden State (12) Short Countrywide? (1) A Gloomy Christmas for Real Estate? (1) Washington DC bubble? (214) Riskiest housing markets (6) Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up (2) Recent Trackbacks Wealthy Americans believe real estate to go up, up, up (1) More New Homes for Sale (1) A Fun Website for Checking Affordability (1) Impact of higher mortgage rates? (2) Making Sense of Average Mortgage Rates (1) A Less Curvaceous Yield Curve (2) The Westchester Tease (1) More Option ARMs and Alt-A Loans (1) Real Estate Investment Ideas? (2) Boston housing...on the rise???? (1) Categories Affordability Amey's adventures in real estate Bubbles Cali is Doomed Demographics Economy Estate Planning Foreclosures Home builders Housing Prices Investing in Real Estate Mortgage Rates Mortgages Real Estate Culture Refinancing Regions Remodeling Selling Archives December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 Subscribe RSS Feed
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Related Articles Speed your home sale with these fast fix-ups The hidden financial truth about remodeling Smart -- and stupid -- ways to pay for your remodel The Basics 6 reasons your home isn't selling advertisement So, you're in agony because your home has languished on the market week after week. Here are some culprits that may be keeping buyers away in droves. By Bankrate.com Has your lawn grown up around that "For Sale" sign? Have the wasps moved into the lock box on your front door? Did you just receive an invitation to your real estate agent's retirement party? If so, chances are your home sale fizzled. Here are the six most-common reasons why homes don't sell and what you can do about it. Your home is overpriced Optimistic home sellers love to parrot the old adage, "There's a buyer for every home." But they often leave off the qualifier: "at the buyer's price." Find a loan that's right for you at the Loan Center The fact is that buyers, not sellers, ultimately determine the market value of a home. You can ask for the moon and set your listing price well above comparable properties in your neighborhood, but at some point it will be up to you, the seller, to accept what the buyer thinks your home is worth. Overpricing is the most common reason homes don't sell. When you ask an unrealistic price, it sets in motion a process that often works against you. Here's why: Most real estate agents, and hence most qualified buyers, will see your new listing within 30 days. If it is overpriced by as little as 5%, it will be duly noted and interest in your property will wane, especially if you show no intention of coming off your asking price. You likely already priced out buyers who might have qualified for financing at a more reasonable price. Even if you manage to find a buyer at your inflated asking price, the property may not appraise at that figure and the financing will fall apart. Your real estate agent may have approved or even suggested the inflated asking price to secure your listing. Conversely, other agents often use overpriced properties like yours to help sell their own listings. ("Here's what they are asking. Now would you like to take a second look at that first house I showed you?") "If you have a house that really should be priced at $200,000 and you've got it listed at $260,000, you are trying to compete against homes that really are worth close to $300,000 and all of a sudden your home really is not competing well," says Jeri Fisher of Jeri Fisher Real Estate in Missoula, Mont. "You want to compete with what is available out there among homes similar to yours." If your home remains on the market for too long, agents and buyers may begin to wonder if there are other, perhaps more serious reasons why it isn't selling. "It becomes shopworn, the same as a jacket hanging in the store week after week," says Fisher. "People are aware that it has been on the market a long time and agents stop showing it." Your home doesn't 'show' well Your home is competing against shiny new houses in those pristine subdivisions out in the suburbs with their attractive prices, incentives and community amenities. Face it: Even the best old house needs a little makeover if it hopes to attract a qualified buyer. The good news is most of the work will be cosmetic and relatively inexpensive: a new coat of paint, a few attractive window boxes, a thorough cleaning of floors and carpets. Voila! The place may look good enough to reconsider. A good real estate agent can advise you on where your time and money are best spent. "Price and condition are two things that the seller can do something about," says Fisher. "I always give people my 'honey-do' list. I think paint is probably a seller's best friend because it makes things smell fresh and look fresh. If it's time to paint, it's time to paint. It's the best return on investment." You're in a bad location Nothing has a greater effect on your home's value than its location. Your humble abode might be worth a king's ransom were it located in Palm Beach, Aspen or San Francisco. It might even jump thousands in value just two streets over in the next (and far superior) school district. "If you're in one of the higher-ranked schools around here, you're going to add $50,000 to $100,000 to the price of the same house," says Lenn Harley, a broker with Homefinders.com Inc. in Maryland and Virginia. The point is, location rules in real estate. If your home's location is less than desirable, your options are somewhat limited. A good real estate agent will do his best to help you accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative of your circumstances, say by using foliage to screen off offensive adjoining properties or dampen traffic noise. The best way to compensate for a poor location is to reduce your asking price or offer attractive incentives such as seller financing or a lease option with rent credit. You have a lousy listing agent Yep, they exist: Real estate agents who mislead, misfire and misbehave. Their bad advice can cost you plenty in time, money and the sheer hassle of keeping the place show-ready 24/7. The agent from hell will allow you to overprice your home ("Here's what I can get for you if you list with me!"), not market it properly, fail to screen for qualified buyers, be unresponsive to interest from other agents (if they sell their own listing, they don't have to split the commission) and keep you totally in the dark throughout the process. What's more, if your agent is abrasive, arrogant or otherwise difficult to work with, other agents may not want the hassle of showing any of their listings to prospective buyers. You are battling competition or market conditions We've all heard the terms "buyer's market" and "seller's market." In real estate, market conditions are affected by any number of external forces, some of them predictable (the weather, sort of), some of them unpredictable (the local economy, interest rates, public optimism or pessimism). In a "hot" or seller's market, homes go fast. Inventory (homes on the market) may be low, meaning less competition for you. Chances are better that you will get your asking price in a hot market; in fact, it is not uncommon to even be offered more than your listing price. But in a "flat," "cold" or buyer's market, sales slow to a trickle, inventories grow and buyers can find bargains, especially when they know the seller is motivated (i.e., paying on two mortgages). If you're trying to sell in a flat market, you're not only competing against all that vacant new construction, but against rentals as well. In this case, be prepared to settle for less than top dollar, or wait to sell until the pendulum swings once again in your favor. You have ineffective marketing Gone are the days when an agent could simply place your listing with the local multiple listing service, hold a halfhearted open house and wait for another agent to bring forth a buyer. Today's top performers launch a multilevel marketing plan that includes listing tours for area agents, newspaper and even TV ads, weekend open houses, listing fliers and placements in local real estate publications. Computers and the Internet also have changed the face of real estate. According to the National Association of Realtors, today more than one-third of all home buyers use the Internet for house hunting. The best real estate agents are computer-savvy. They have your listing in color on their laptops to show clients and communicate frequently via e-mail, a particular boon when working with out-of-town buyers. Suffice it to say that if your real estate agent isn't listing your home online through the company Web site as well as with the local MLS, you may not be getting the exposure necessary to find a buyer. "There are those who just put the listing in the multiple and pray it will sell and those that put a lot of effort into marketing their listings," says Fisher. "Unfortunately, with this weird system of compensation we have, they all get paid the same, whether they know nothing or have many years of experience." 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Texas Land Trust Directory Listing Maincontent Local Navigation print friendly search Regulations Publications Outdoor Learning Kids Game Warden Grants Get Involved Shop FAQ Calendar Español Experience Texas Fishing & Boating State Parks & Destinations Hunting & Wildlife Land & Water Doing Business Home Land & Water Land Private Tltc Dir List Texas Land Trusts About Texas Land Trusts Starting a Land Trust Texas Land Trust Directory Foreword Listing Regional Index About the Texas Land Trust Council ( TLTC ) TLTC Board of Directors and Honorary Council News 2004 TLTC Conference Speech Bulletin Board TLTC Publications Land Trust Resources Texas Land Trusts Top 1-Million Mark in Acres Conserved Texas Land Trust Directory Listing Land Trusts are listed below. Each title is a link to additional information about the Land Trust. American Farmland Trust (413) 586-4593 or (800) 370-4879 http://www.farmland.org Archaeological Conservancy (505) 266-1540 http://www.americanarchaeology.org Audubon Texas (512) 306-0225 http://www.tx.audubon.org/ Bat Conservation International (512) 327-9721 http://www.batcon.org Bexar Land Trust (210) 222-8430 http://www.bexarlandtrust.org Big Thicket Natural Heritage Trust (903) 566-8939 or (903) 566-0535 http://www.btatx.org Brazos Valley Land Conservancy (979) 764-3844 Cactus Conservation Institute (432) 364-2620 Cibolo Conservancy (210) 699-9290 Coastal Bend Land Trust (361) 882-5624 http://www.coastalbendlandtrust.org Connemara Conservancy (214) 351-0990 http://www.connemaraconservancy.org Conservation Fund (512) 477-1712 http://www.conservationfund.org Cradle of Texas Conservancy (979) 238-5001 Ducks Unlimited (832) 595-0663 http://www.ducks.org Frontera Land Alliance (915) 545-5214 Galveston Bay Foundation (281) 332-3381 http://www.galvbay.org Guadalupe-Blanco River Trust (830) 372-5077 http://www.gbrtrust.org Gulf Coast Bird Observatory (979) 480-0999 http://www.gcbo.org Hill Country Conservancy (512) 328-2481 http://www.hillcountryconservancy.org Hill Country Land Trust (830) 997-0027 Houston Audubon Society (713) 932-1639 http://www.houstonaudubon.org Hudspeth Directive for Conservation (505) 531-7246 Humane Society of the United States Wildlife Land Trust (301) 548-7735 http://www.hsus.org Katy Prairie Conservancy (713) 523-6135 http://www.katyprairie.org Legacy Land Trust (713) 524-2100 http://www.llt.org National Wild Turkey Federation (803) 637-3106 http://www.nwtf.org Native Prairies Association of Texas (254) 897-3646 http://www.texasprairie.org Natural Area Preservation Association (512) 804-1981 or (972) 234-5768 http://www.napa-texas.org Nature Conservancy of Texas (East Texas) (409) 941-9114 Nature Conservancy of Texas (Headquarters) (210) 224-8774 http://www.nature.org Nature Conservancy of Texas (North Texas) (903) 568-4139 Nature Conservancy of Texas (South Texas) (361) 882-3584 or (361) 887-9487 Nature Conservancy of Texas (West Texas) (432) 426-2390 Panhandle Land Trust (806) 374-5317 Pines and Prairies Land Trust (512) 308-1911 Rock Art Foundation (210) 525-9907 http://www.rockart.org Texas Cave Conservancy (512) 249-2283 Texas Cave Management Association (210) 699-1388 or (512) 832-1965 http://www.tcmacaves.org Texas Land Trust Council (512) 389-4779 or (512) 389-4961 http:..www.tpwd.state.tx.us/conserve/tltc/ Texas Ornithological Society (713) 743-0590 http://www.texasbirds.org Texas Parks and Recreation Foundation (972) 744-4595 Texas Parks and Wildlife Foundation (214) 720-1478 http://www.tpwf.org Trees For Houston (713) 840-8733 http://www.treesforhouston.org Trust for Public Land (Austin) (512) 478-4644 http://www.tpl.org Trust for Public Land (Dallas) (214) 741-3600 http://www.tpl.org Trust for Public Land (Houston/Galveston) (713) 226-7200 or (713) 703-1123 Valley Land Fund (956) 971-8550 http://www.valleylandfund.com Westcave Preserve (830) 825-3442 http://www.westcave.org Wetland Habitat Alliance of Texas (936) 569-9428 http://www.whatduck.org Wimberley Valley Watershed Association (512) 847-1582 http://www.visitwimberley.org/water/ Contact Us | Help | Accessibility | Media | Site Policies | Complaints | Intranet | State of Texas | TRAILS Search | TexasOnline | Compact with Texans Texas Parks and Wildlife Department , 4200 Smith School Road, Austin, TX 78744 Toll Free: (800) 792-1112, Austin: (512) 389-4800 Content of this site © Texas Parks and Wildlife Department unless otherwise noted. Last modified: July 29, 2005, 3:56 pm