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December's Cover Story Forecast 2006: Five trends driving the industry Dec 1, 2005 12:00 PM While mounting pressures may produce cracks in the economic recovery in 2006, the nation is on track to close out 2005 on a resilient note. Real GDP growth... More -- FEATURED DOWNLOAD 100 Ways to Save Costs in your Retail Operation Supplement For ways to save on day-to-day operational products and services, be sureto to download a copy of our 100+ Ways to Save including a complete listing ofSimon Preferred Vendors and Service Providers. Clickhere to download . News Articles GE/Arden Deal Caps Big M&A Year Dec 28, 2005 3:32 AM When General Electric agreed to buy office real estate investment trust (REIT) Arden Realty last Thursday, the $3.2 billion deal capped a heady year for REIT mergers. Not only is the southern California-based office landlord the eighth publicly-traded REIT to change hands this year in roughly $20 billion worth of deals, but its also further evidence that institutional capital still has a voracious appetite for real estate. And December proved to be an especially active month for REIT mergers: Centerpoint Properties Trust was sold to a joint venture earlier this month for $2.4 billion.... More -- Ground Zero Waiting Game Dec 21, 2005 1:49 PM Four years after the 9-11 attacks, lower Manhattans office market is on the mend. But 7 World Trade Center, one of the first towers to rise along Ground Zero, is lagging behind the recovery with just 40,000 sq. ft. of its entire 1.7 million sq. ft. leased as of late December. The problem, say brokerage sources, are the above-market rents at 7 World Trade Center, which is being developed by Silverstein Properties and is slated for occupancy in March. ... More -- D.C. Hotel Property Sold Dec 21, 2005 10:57 AM LaSalle Hotel Properties has bought a downtown Washington, D.C. hotel for $44.6 million. The hotel REIT also plans to invest another $21 million into the Holiday Inn Downtown. ... More -- GE Buys Swedish Office Tower Dec 21, 2005 10:55 AM GE Commercial Finance Real Estate has bought the leasehold to Gta Ark, an office building located in downtown Stockholm. The purchase price amounts to roughly $57 million (U.S.). Approximately 28% of the property is leased to the Local Authority of Stockholm. This is the second office property that GE Commercial Finance Real Estate has acquired in Stockholm since last summer. ... More -- GE Lends To Investment Fund Operator Dec 21, 2005 10:54 AM GE Commercial Finance Real Estate has closed a $28.7 million transaction with HEI Hospitality for the HEI acquisition of the 250-room, full service Sheraton Fort Lauderdale Airport. ... More -- Hoteliers Eye Booming 2006: Report Dec 16, 2005 11:48 AM The U.S. hotel industry should post record profits in 2006, based on a recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers hospitality practice. Not only is 2006 likely to bring record profits but also the industry should expect two more years of solid growth. ... More -- No Worries On Non-Core Industrial Development Spike Dec 14, 2005 1:34 PM Planned development activity in secondary and tertiary industrial markets set a blistering pace in the third quarter with 38.5 million sq. ft. of new construction starts, reports CB Richard Ellis. That was up from only 16 million sq. ft. in the second quarter. Whats more interesting, however, is that a full third of that third quarter activity was initiated in secondary and tertiary industrial markets rather than the major shipping hubs on the west and east coast. ... More -- Property Fund Launched Dec 9, 2005 4:24 PM Henderson Global Investors has launched an open-ended, commingled real estate fund that will invest in a range property classes. The fund will chiefly buy apartment, retail, industrial and office properties located in select U.S. markets. Henderson Global Investors manages more than $10.1 billion in assets. ... More -- CB Richard Ellis and Trammell Crow Agree… The top 2 U.S. asset managers -- CB Richard Ellis and Trammell Crow -- have all moved to the Realm PAY Platform for Paper-Free A/P. Click here to discover why. The Best of the Best 2005 Oct 20, 2005 1:55 PM National Real Estate Investor presents its annual rankings of the leading commerical real estate companies. Intent on shedding its image as a highly fragmented industry, commercial real estate continues to experience a wave of consolidation. For industry veterans, it's like watching a game of PacMan. The giants of the industry are gobbling up smaller players and each other at a healthy clip.... More -- IN PRINT Current issue Hurricane Winds Blow Through Condo Market Dec 1, 2005 12:00 PM The condo market in Miami-Dade County, which is bursting at the seams with new construction and intense investor demand, took an unexpected hit in October... More -- Unlocking Building Value Through Repositioning Dec 1, 2005 12:00 PM One of the most striking buildings on Chicago's skyline is CNA Center. Since it was built in 1972, the 1.3 million sq. ft. red tower has operated as a... More -- Why Public REITs Are Going Private Dec 1, 2005 12:00 PM During the early 1990s, private real estate companies with large portfolios rushed to become public real estate investment trusts. Now the pendulum has... More -- Magazine Subscriptions Email Newsletter Advertiser Information Online Marketplace Back to Top © 2005 Primedia Business Magazines and Media. 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real estate prices in
MemeFirst: New York real-estate prices explained -- MemeFirst December 01, 2005 New York real-estate prices explained The 2.2 million jobs in Manhattan pay, on average, $2,025 per week . (You know that feeling you get when you find out you're below average? I've been having that for years.) Manhattan is 22 square miles, which means that the island of Manhattan pays, on average, $378 per square foot per year . And that includes Washington Heights. Posted by Felix at 02:54 PM GMT All proceeds go to MSF -- Comments #1 Pity we can't all work for Goldman Sachs. Posted by: Gherimiah on December 1, 2005 03:28 PM #2 I'll happily defer to someone with a firmer grasp of stats on this, but in the meantime, I wonder, does that average income number tell you very much? Given the massive disparity in Manhattan incomes, between, say, the dishwasher and the hedge-fund owner, which surely are among the widest in the country, wouldn't you also need to know the distribution of the data points? At a minium, wouldn't you want also to know the median income? Also, is this net or gross? Article talked about paychecks, which could probably mean either. Posted by: Matthew on December 1, 2005 04:36 PM #3 Oh, and also, Felix, presumably the 2.2 million people with jobs in Manhattan don't all live there, so your extrapolation doesn't wash. Posted by: Matthew on December 1, 2005 04:38 PM #4 Obvs mean incomemedian income, and I'd be surprised if more than 40% of Manhattanites made above average. Probably less. But even so. And actually, the fact that there are 2.2 million jobs to 1.5 million people in Manhattan actually only serves to exacerbate the demand-supply imbalance when it comes to real estate. Posted by: Felix on December 1, 2005 04:53 PM #5 I hate to be the one to break this to you, Felix, but nearly all residential housing in Manhattan consists of multi-story buildings. The salary range you describe explains real estate prices in Westchester County, NY and Bergen County, NJ to about the same degree as prices in Manhattan. Posted by: Sterling on December 1, 2005 07:05 PM #6 How delightful that the discussion of property prices one is sometimes unable to defuse at dinner parties just carries on here - almost as if taunting one with its dreary ineluctability. And how nice that Felix should bring along his no doubt expert appreciation of statistical lore. The one thing I am missing is the crucial evaluation of bedbug incidence as it affects property prices in Manhattan. In another thread, Betty has said this bedbug malarkey is all a plan of Bush's. For myself, I prefer to recall that bedbugs tend to originate in Belgium. Schtumm for now. More on this later. Posted by: Claude de Bigny on December 1, 2005 08:40 PM #7 Also, this seems to imply that everyone pays all of their income for housing, which is hopefully not the case. To be more realistic (ignoring the issues rightly brought up by the other commentators, including whether all of those people actually live in Manhattan and whether you can just take the sq ftge of Manhattan as the residential sq ftge), say people on average spend 40% of their income on housing. That gets your income for housing per sq ft to around $151. Posted by: Susan on December 1, 2005 09:14 PM #8 Susan and Sterling, you are embarassingly confused. What percentage of real estate in Manhattan is used for housing? According to this http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/pdf/landusefacts/landuse_tables.pdf (in case you are confused by the graph, the percents sum together veritcally and the land area sum horizontally). And even assuming that all "Mixed Residential and Commercial" was used for housing, less than 38% of the land in Manhattan is for housing. These data certainly allow for the idea that much of rent paid in Manhattan is for commercial use, and even then, a considerable percent is used for public space (Central Park alone is 10% of the area of Manhattan). Anyway, the amount people earn in a particular location is not directly related to the amount the people who live there earn, or the amount the people live there pay for rent. Look at this site: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/saipe/index.html The direct link is unavailable, but the Median household income for New York County was 43,573. Nassau County on the other hand is more than 71,000. In which place is it cheaper to rent by the foot? Posted by: Andrew on December 2, 2005 07:22 AM #9 I don't think I'm confused. My points are: a) there is actually quite a bit more than 22 square miles of residential floor space in Manhattan because of vertical construction b) a lot of upper-income Manhattan workers live outside Manhattan, and their buying power lifts prices in tony bedroom communities Posted by: Sterling on December 3, 2005 03:38 PM #10 OK, Sterling, let's do it your way. Assume that each of the 1.5 million residents of Manhattan has 400 square feet to call their own: that works out to 1200 square feet for the average family of three and 1600 square feet for the average family of four. Generous, I'd say. That comes out to 600 million square feet of residential real estate in Manhattan. Using that figure, my calculation actually comes out slightly higher : $386 per square foot per year, rather than $378. What makes you think that there's more than 22 square miles of residential floor space in Manhattan? As for your point b, I fail to see how it is in any way germane. Posted by: Felix on December 3, 2005 11:09 PM #11 OK, 22 square miles equals about 613,324,800 square feet. That would leave each of Manhattan's 1.5 million residents with 409 square feet of living space. But I don't believe that most Manhattan residents are actually so deprived, especially when you take into account common areas in apartment buildings such as laundry facilities, hallways, lobbies, etc. I'd be surprised if the average wasn't at least 600, and it's probably more than 800. And besides, that's not what you originally meant - you were dividing Manhattan's land footprint and not taking into account its vertical expansion. As for the second point, I suspect there's a strong tendency among $100,000 - $1,000,000 per annum Manhattan earners - which is well-off to wealthy-on-a-budget - to live in places like Valhalla and Ho-Ho-Kus, especially if they're married with kids. Family-flight in turn increases the average per-capita-square-footage of the Manhattan residential footprint through bleed-off of children. Posted by: Sterling on December 4, 2005 02:29 AM #12 Sterling jumped the shark so long ago it's probably not surprising, but for those of you keeping score at home, he really did just say that the average Manhattanite has 800 square feet of their own. So if you're an average person living with 2 roommates, that means you're in a 2400 square foot apartment. In Manhattan. Yeah. Oh, and that 350 square foot apartment you've got? It's not 350 square feet at all, it's probably more than 4000 square feet. You're just not including the lobby and all the hallways. Posted by: Felix on December 4, 2005 02:43 AM #13 My claim is that the amount of residential-zoned floor space in Manhattan probably works out to between 600 and 800 square feet per resident of Manhattan. You're not only challenging this, but asserting that my claim is absurd. Sure you wanna do that? Posted by: Sterling on December 4, 2005 02:59 AM #14 I've tried to find the statistic, but to no avail. It seems that while office space inventor is measured in square footage, residential space is simply measured, in all documents, by units. But we can work with that. So far I've learned that 82% of zoned lots in Manhattan are residential, making up about 280,000,000 square feet, which includes permanently undeveloped spaces like yards and gardens. If the average height of development across all that land is four stories, then, we're looking at about 750 square feet per person. I've also learned that in 1999 there were about 727,000 residential units in Manhattan , which means that the average unit houses two people. So those three-roomies crammed into one 800-square-foot-tenement-with-the-bathtub-in-the-kitchen examples are mostly fiction. Which is a shame because I get a tingle from the mental picture of Manhattan twenty- and thirty-somethings living in cramped, dingy conditions. If we divide the total residential land area by the total number of units, we get 385 square feet, which works out to 192.5 square feet per person, assuming no dwellings above one story in height and no unimproved/vacant land. If the average height is assumed to be four stories, in this scenario we get about 770 square feet per person. Here's a report from Prudential Douglas Elliman that details its 1Q 2005 sales. Units sold averaged 1,334 square feet, which divided by two yields 767 square feet per person. Breaking it down further we find co-ops averaging 1,197 square feet, condos at 1,496 square feet, luxury at 2,921 and loft at 2,145. So that's 598.5 square feet per person at the low end all the way up to 1,460.5 at the top. There's three separate analytical models for you Felix, all of which yield per-person square footage of 750 or better. I admit they're not all that fleshed out, but I'm stuck inside with a cold watching The Taking of Pelham One-Two-Three on DVD, and I'm disinclined to dig deeper. But you're welcome to. Posted by: Sterling on December 4, 2005 04:04 AM #15 Sterling: do your calculations include infrastructure or is the 280MM number a percentage of raw space? Building density is higher here than anywhere else in America, but 15% to circulation (in buildings and streets themeselves) would be an easily defended metric. Counting hallways in urban residential structures is like counting sidewalks as part of sf for suburban homes. As much Sterling does sound like a set designer for Friends, Felix, I gotta say, of the 25 or so apartments of people that I can definitely make an estimate of size, we average 500 sf easy. Most everyone is a half a standard tenement lot (25 x 25), with a couple of lofts and post-war, large-scale developments thrown in. This is skewed because many of them are single (I live in a 2bd alone) or have rent-controlled apartments from way back. Posted by: 99 on December 4, 2005 07:19 PM #16 Where does your 280m sq ft number come from? Your first two calculations are based on it, so I'd like to know. (They're also based on a multiplier of 4, which as far as I can tell came pretty much out of thin air.) As for apartment sales, in Manhattan individual condos and coops tend to be much larger than the apartments inside rental buildings. So if you look just at sold apartments as opposed to rented apartments, you're going to get a skewed figure. What's more, if a 3800-square-foot brownstone in Harlem, say, is sold and then the downstairs floor is rented out, that still counts as a 3800 square foot deal under these figures. Posted by: Felix on December 4, 2005 09:21 PM #17 The multiplier of 4 was back-of-envelope guess. The 280,000,000 number came from this PDF . Sorry, thought I'd linked to it initially. As for rental apartments being smaller than privately owned condos or co-ops...not sure I buy that. But even if it's true, how much smaller could they be? 10%? Doesn't really matter. You can apologize any time now. Posted by: Sterling on December 4, 2005 10:06 PM #18 if anyone is real curious why not pony up the $250 to get a list of every tax lot in the city? http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/bytes/applbyte.shtml in the meantime, simply because i am tired of having to read sterlings pontifications about things he knows anything about, i downloaded a list of all the residential tax lots from 14th street and below from propertyshark. only 14th street and below, because after 6000+ entries, i became bored. 14th street down is a good representative sample of the 99000+ residential tax lots in manhattan. it includes spacious luxury lofts of tribeca, tenements of the les, projects on the eastside, high rise high density battery park and half building condo conversions of downtown (note that a rental bldg with multiple units counts as a single tax lot with the number of units listed as a seperate data field). the average unit size works out to 1100sf with 590sf per person (based 2000 census population stats for 14th st & below). this includes all common space in a building as it is based on total building size for single tax lot (rental) buildings and counts common space tax lots for condo buildings (read lobbies, circ, etc.) multiplying back out by the 2000 census population numbers for manhattan of 1,537,195... we get 906,945,050sf of residential space in manhattan. let's call that an even 9Bsf since the city lists 3800 acres of lot area in manhattan (165,500,000sf), that gives a rough overbuild factor of 5.5. this will obviously skew higher with the ues & uws densities without actually affecting the sf/person. summary- -590sf of residential per person (inclusive of common areas). close to sterlings low estimate of 600, but nowhere near the 800sf -1100sf average size per unit (inclusive of common areas). again close to sterlings guess based on broker mumbojumbo, but still below the stated average. -9Bsf of residential space in manhattan sterling- close on your numbers, but not nearly close enough to be quite so pompously smug. stick to things you know about, like why bush is a foreign policy genius. felix- remind me what this related to? Posted by: geoff on December 5, 2005 12:34 AM #19 Geoff - The only reason I was pompously snug is because Felix had reacted to to my estimates with such comedic outrage. Also, I don't think 14th St. and below is a good representative sample. Newer and I suspect more spacious high-rises make up a much larger proportion of housing from the 30s up through the low 100s. So I'm sticking with 600+. I suspect the actual number is around 750, as stated above. As for your justification of your work - "simply because i am tired of having to read sterlings pontifications about things he knows anything about" - I'm not sure what it means. Perhaps you meant to write "nothing" instead of "anything"? I'm not claiming to be right all the time - I am not right all the time. I am, however, pretty much always right whenever Felix gets all worked up and tells me I have no idea what I'm talking about. Thanks for your small role in marking off another example for me to throw back at him at some future date. Posted by: Sterling on December 5, 2005 06:19 AM #20 Renter-occupied apartments are much smaller than owner-occupied apartments. And as the PDF you yourself linked to shows (see page 24), the vast majority of apartments in Manhattan are renter-occupied. Think about it: one needs maybe 350 sq ft per person to live in some reasonable comfort. Beyond that, you're shelling out extra cash for extra space. Owners are happy doing that because they have 100% equity in that space: everyone has heard the advice that they should buy the biggest apartment they can afford. Renters, on the other hand, are simply giving away thousands of dollars in rent every month, with nothing at all to show for it. So they tend to go not for the biggest apartment they can afford, but rather the cheapest apartment they find adequate. Put it this way: Manhattan is full of individuals spending an enormous proportion of their income on outsize mortgage payments. Almost everyone, when they move from renting to buying, sees their monthly housing costs rise substantially. If you move to Manhattan and have a relatively low income, then you might spend a crazy amount of it on rent, it's true. But if your income is average or higher (and remember that average is $2,025 per week), I very much doubt that your rent is making nearly as much of a dent in your paycheck as it would if you owned your own apartment. You reach a standard of living you're comfortable with, and you stop. Anything beyond that is money which you could otherwise spend on clothes, or travel, or restaurants. Whereas if you buy , you're not spending so much as investing. The only money which you're really spending is the interest on your mortgage -- and even that comes with a tax deduction. Or let's put it another way. That Elliman report you linked to has an average sales price of $1.21 million. A typical rental yield in Manhattan these days is 4%, so if rentals were functionally identical to owner-occupied apartments, which you seem to assume, then the average rent in Manhattan would be over $4,000 a month. In fact, of course, it's nowhere near that. Posted by: Felix on December 5, 2005 06:55 AM #21 There's the shark, and then there's the A train. Sterling's Manhattan clearly stops at 96th street. Sterling, dear, north of that bright white line, the housing stock is incredibly stable and consistent in terms of size and layout. Harlem is just now getting it's first 'luxury' apartment building in a half century. Any larger apartment complexes are housing projects, which have smaller units by definition, and, allowing for the dispersal of the towers in some International Style fantasy also insures that the density does not increase much. Posted by: 99 on December 5, 2005 04:03 PM #22 Felix, just because apartments are currently going for $1.21 million a pop doesn't mean that everyone who owns an apartment paid that much. Rent prices move in sympathy with real estate prices but are less prone to bubbles. What you're missing here, and you've missed the same thing when we've talked about the stock market in the past, is the difference between speculative investors and income investors. Speculators don't buy an apartment (or apartment building) primarily for the benefit of the rent; their main motivation is the hope of flipping the property at some later date for a larger sum than they paid for it. The current Manhattan real estate bubble is the product of speculators. Real estate income investors view rent collection as their goal - most apartment buildings in any town or city in the U.S. are owned by income investors. They get less press than speculators, but they also tend to go bankrupt less often. The market value of a rental property can be determined by the amount of rent it generates for the owner, not the other way around. Manhattan rents are high - probably even ludicrously high - but that is a function of large demand chasing relatively low supply, and is only weakly related to current real estate prices. I do acknowledge your point about space not being a priority for Manhattan renters, there is some truth in that. People who do see space as a necessity tend to wind up in rental units in Brooklyn, Queens or Hudson County. But that's not exclusively the case. Posted by: Sterling on December 5, 2005 04:59 PM #23 This thread is hilarious and sad, although a good example of how the same statistics can be applied to support any and all political positions. Posted by: sac on December 5, 2005 06:39 PM #24 Sterling, Manhattan is the one real-estate market in the US where there are, to all intents and purposes, zero speculators under your definition. No one buys Manhattan property in order to flip it. For one thing, co-op boards (and even condo boards, for that matter) hate flippers, and are likely to punish them. There's flip taxes, brokers' fees of 6% for the seller, and a luxury tax of 1% on any apartment over $1m for the buyer. Prices are so high that the carrying costs are enormous -- and you can't rent out the apartment in the meantime, because that makes it pretty much unsaleable. There are, of course, lots of buildings owned by income investors in New York. Most of the East Village, where I live, is comprised of such buildings: they normally have 20 or so apartments (say 5 floors, 4 apartments per floor), and they've been going up in price almost as much as individual apartments have -- the only reason they haven't gone up just as much is because many of the tenants are rent-controlled or rent-stabilised below market. These are typical New York apartments, from a renter's point of view -- but I can tell you, as someone who was apartment hunting in the East Village for almost a year, they're much less typical from an owner's point of view. Also, there's a strong incentive for for-sale apartments to be as large as possible: price per square foot is positively correlated with size. That's not the case in the rental market: it's easier to rent out a 650sqft apartment for $2500 than it is to rent out a 1300sqft apartment for $5000. Posted by: Felix on December 5, 2005 09:14 PM #25 "Manhattan is the one real-estate market in the US where there are, to all intents and purposes, zero speculators under your definition. No one buys Manhattan property in order to flip it." Felix, of course people speculate on property in Manhattan. Just because the barriers to entry are high doesn't mean some won't jump them. How else do you think a modest apartment winds up costing as much as a dozen Mercedes-Benz CL500s? Who do you imagine is providing demand at that level? You know banks are not issuing $1,000,000 mortgages to households with joint incomes of $200,000. It's trust fund kiddies - who are often divorced from fiscal reality - and speculators. As for your point about different-sized apartments being suitable for rent versus sale, I might agree with you except for the fact that every rental apartment IS OWNED by someone. It IS PART of the for sale market. I'd be surprised if fewer than half of the condos in Manhattan are rented out by their owners. Posted by: Sterling on December 6, 2005 01:51 AM #26 Sterling, I'm afraid the factors leading to high apartment prices are much more mundane than your feverish mind would like to imagine. Lots of global liquidity, driving down interest rates and banks' credit tests. Lots of demand, due to Manhattan's status as the center of the universe and high Wall Street bonuses. And very limited supply. The market for flippers is Miami, not NYC -- where a condo can be bought and sold three or four times before it is even built. As for your point about rental apartments being owned by someone, it sounds clever until you stop to think about what I've already said. Rental buildings are owned by landlords; the vast majority of condos and co-ops are owner-occupied. For one thing, co-ops vastly outnumber condos, and they're hard to rent. And as for condos, they generally get rented out when they're not the place their owner really wants to live. Given how valuable they are, few owners who don't want to live here would rather rent out their condos rather than simply sell them. Take my East Village condo building, for instance: when it went condo in 1983, only one owner lived here. Today, all the units bar one are owner-occupied. I haven't done my homework on this, but I'll happily accept your wager: I'll bet the standard bottle of vintage champagne that more than half the condos in Manhattan are owner-occupied. Deal? Posted by: Felix on December 6, 2005 02:43 AM #27 If you go double or nothing on the proposition that the amount of existing residential floor space in Manhattan divided by the number of residents of Manhattan is equal to or greater than 600 sq. ft., then it's a bet. How are we going to research this? FWIW, I am descended from a man who is reputed to be the first person to negotiate a real estate deal in New York: Wessel Wesselse (ten Broek). He may have been the man to offer 60 guilders (often misreported as $24) as the purchase price of Manhattan from the Canarsies. (Technically the Canarsies didn't own Manhattan Island - it's not for nothing that "Canarsie" is in Brooklyn. Also technically the Dutch West India Company didn't care which tribe owned it. It just needed some bunch of natives to smile and sign off on the deal to keep the English away.) This of course conveys no special knowledge upon me, but it certainly adds a humorous subtext to our disagreement. Posted by: Sterling on December 6, 2005 04:14 AM #28 I'm not sure about the terms of the wager: we seem to be betting on two different things at the same time. But spell it out, and I'll be amenable. I do want to ensure, of course, that hallways and elevator shafts and the like do not count as residential floor space. And please also ensure that if one of the propositions can be determined while the other one can't, then the other wager still stands. Posted by: Felix on December 6, 2005 05:55 AM #29 I'm not sure how we could specify the terms to exclude elevators if they are included in filings. However, it occurs to me that Manhattan Borough probably requires a statement of total dwelling space for its Certificate of Occupancy, so that would work for me. And no, I think double or nothing sounds good to me, especially since we will be attempting to falsify two of my estimations, rather than either of yours. Posted by: Sterling on December 6, 2005 06:20 AM #30 You've lost me, I'm afraid. When you say "double or nothing", are you proposing a 2BVC bet on the residential floor space, and no bet at all on the proportion of condos which are rented out? Or what? It makes no sense to me: "double or nothing" normally happens after A has lost a bet and B has won it. Then going double or nothing means that either B wins double the original amount, or he wins nothing. You essentially run the bet over again. Are you maybe trying to propose something whereby if I lose I lose 2BVCs, and if I win I win nothing? Posted by: Felix on December 6, 2005 07:44 AM #31 Are you trying to squirm out of it? Posted by: Sterling on December 6, 2005 06:03 PM #32 Sterling, will you propose your bet already? I've already said that I'm likely to accept. Just tell me the terms! Posted by: Felix on December 6, 2005 06:12 PM #33 I did! Posted by: Sterling on December 6, 2005 06:25 PM #34 OK, have a few moments now, I had to get someplace before 2pm and the roads are crap with snow and slush. Um, OK. My terms for the bet is those two things specified, avg. sq. footage = 600 and = 50% of condos. Either side has to get both right to collect. gotta run Posted by: Sterling on December 6, 2005 06:51 PM #35 So if one of us gets both right, he wins 1BVC or 2BVCs? And if one of the two turns out to be unverifiable, then it's a wash? Posted by: Felix on December 6, 2005 07:22 PM #36 Honestly, Felix, I doubt either number is verifiable. Like I wrote above, the city appears to track residential rental inventory by units, rather than by square footage. Also, most owners of condominium units who rent them out do so through agents - even the tenant may be only vaguely aware of the legal status of the unit. In NJ I don't think an individual condo owner even needs to report the unit as a rental property if it's in a building that's already inspected under multi-family housing regulations (or if it's a standalone unit or duplex). The rent revenue has to be reported as taxable income, naturallly, but not to any entity with housing oversight. So make it for one bottle and yes both figures have to be verifiable. That said, if either of us can show a grouping of not-completely-conclusive figures from multiple sources that seem reasonable and fall long or short of my guesses by ten percent or more, then I think we should accept them. (Of course, I have arguably already met this condition with my square footage prediction, and Geoff's calculations don't contradict it under the 10% rule I suggest.) Posted by: Sterling on December 6, 2005 10:05 PM #37 as i mentioned earlier, you can get the sf and unit count for every residential tax lot in the city from the cities web site... google 'bytes of the big apple' and look at the 'pluto' product. the license fee is $250 or you can get the info from propertyshark.com. there are 99000+ listings for manhattan. at 100 listings per page, thats a lot of cutting and pasting into excel. both of these will give you tax lot sizes (whole buildings/unit count or condo unit), which will be inclusive of common area. 10-15% is considered a fairly standard deduction for circulation. mechanical space is not included in the floor area count. happy dueling Posted by: geoff on December 6, 2005 10:29 PM Post a comment Name: Email Address: URL: Remember personal info? Yes No Anti-spam question: Share four cupcakes equally among four people. How many does each person get (in digits)? Comments: XML Atom RSS 2.0 RSS 1.0 Sources Eurof Felix Jame Michelle Mike Sage7 Stefan Sterling &c. Disclaimer Archive 12/05 11/05 10/05 09/05 08/05 07/05 06/05 05/05 04/05 03/05 02/05 01/05 12/04 11/04 10/04 09/04 08/04 07/04 06/04 05/04 04/04 03/04 02/04 01/04 12/03 11/03 10/03 09/03 Old site Recent posts 08/12: Not man enough (1) 08/12: Fare's fair (0) 07/12: Briddishisms (5) 06/12: The Trial of Saddam (5) 05/12: Leg deficiencies (4) 01/12: New York real-estate prices explained (37) 30/11: Bad vibe (22) 30/11: Thick-headed bouncers (0) 29/11: Argentina's sinister move (2) 28/11: Bedbugs and the city (8) 27/11: I've got a fast card (1) 22/11: Pedestrianize Broadway! (5) 19/11: Century 21 the next casualty at Ground Zero? (23) 19/11: Johnny Depp - sunshine traitor (4) 18/11: Gawker F***** by Yahoo! (7) Comments 06/12: geoff: as i mentioned earlier, you can get the sf and unit count for every residential tax lot in the ci 06/12: Sterling: Honestly, Felix, I doubt either number is verifiable. Like I wrote above, the city appears to tr 06/12: Felix: So if one of us gets both right, he wins 1BVC or 2BVCs? And if one of the two turns out to be unv 06/12: Sterling: OK, have a few moments now, I had to get someplace before 2pm and the roads are crap with snow an 06/12: Sterling: I did! 06/12: Felix: Sterling, will you propose your bet already? I've already said that I'm likely to accept. Just te 06/12: Sterling: Are you trying to squirm out of it? 06/12: Felix: You've lost me, I'm afraid. When you say "double or nothing", are you proposing a 2BVC bet on the 06/12: Sterling: I'm not sure how we could specify the terms to exclude elevators if they are included in filings. 06/12: Felix: I'm not sure about the terms of the wager: we seem to be betting on two different things at the s 06/12: Sterling: If you go double or nothing on the proposition that the amount of existing residential floor spac 06/12: Felix: Sterling, I'm afraid the factors leading to high apartment prices are much more mundane than your 06/12: Sterling: "Manhattan is the one real-estate market in the US where there are, to all intents and purposes, 05/12: Felix: Sterling, Manhattan is the one real-estate market in the US where there are, to all intents and p 05/12: sac: This thread is hilarious and sad, although a good example of how the same statistics can be appli 05/12: Sterling: Felix, just because apartments are currently going for $1.21 million a pop doesn't mean that ever 05/12: 99: There's the shark, and then there's the A train. Sterling's Manhattan clearly stops at 96th stree 05/12: Felix: Renter-occupied apartments are much smaller than owner-occupied apartments. And as the < 05/12: Sterling: Geoff - The only reason I was pompously snug is because Felix had reacted to to my estimates with 05/12: geoff: if anyone is real curious why not pony up the $250 to get a list of every tax lot in the city?<br 04/12: Sterling: The multiplier of 4 was back-of-envelope guess. The 280,000,000 number came from <a href 04/12: Felix: Where does your 280m sq ft number come from? Your first two calculations are based on it, so I'd 04/12: 99: Sterling: do your calculations include infrastructure or is the 280MM number a percentage of raw 04/12: Sterling: I've tried to find the statistic, but to no avail. It seems that while office space inventor is 04/12: Sterling: My claim is that the amount of residential-zoned floor space in Manhattan probably works out to b 04/12: Felix: Sterling jumped the shark so long ago it's probably not surprising, but for those of you keeping 04/12: Sterling: OK, 22 square miles equals about 613,324,800 square feet. That would leave each of Manhattan's 1 03/12: Felix: OK, Sterling, let's do it your way. Assume that each of the 1.5 million residents of Manhattan ha 03/12: Sterling: I don't think I'm confused. My points are: a) there is actually quite a bit more than 22 02/12: Andrew: Susan and Sterling, you are embarassingly confused. What percentage of real estate in Manhattan i Trackbacks
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Amazon.com: Back Home: Music Your Store Music See All 32 Product Categories Your Account | Cart | Wish List | Help | advanced search | browse styles | classical | top sellers | new & future releases | music you should hear | blowout music | used music | free downloads Search Amazon.com Popular Music - Artist Name - Album Title - Song Title Used Music Classical Music Music Downloads Web Search Join Amazon Prime and ship Two-Day for free and Overnight for $3.99. Already a member? Sign in . MUSIC INFORMATION Explore this album buying info listen to samples editorial reviews customer reviews RATE THIS ALBUM I dislike it I love it! 1 2 3 4 5 Edit your ratings Visit the DVD Store Cream - Royal Albert Hall - London May 2-3-5-6 2005 DVD Sign in to turn on 1-Click ordering. A9.com users save 1.57% on Amazon. Learn how . 120 used & new from $4.75 Available for in-store pickup now from: $16.99 Price may vary based on availability Enter your ZIP Code Have one to sell? Back Home Eric Clapton List Price: $18.98 Price: $13.49 & eligible for FREE Super Saver Shipping on orders over $25. See details . You Save: $5.49 (29%) Availability: Usually ships within 24 hours 120 used & new from $4.75 See more product details Best Value Buy Back Home and get American Made World Played at an additional $2 off Amazon.com's everyday low price. Total List Price : $37.96 Buy Together Today: $25.48 You Save : $12.48 Click here for promotion rules Customers who bought this title also bought: Souls Alike ~ Bonnie Raitt A Bigger Bang ~ The Rolling Stones Magic Time ~ Van Morrison Prairie Wind ~ Neil Young 80 ~ B.B. King Chaos and Creation in the Backyard ~ Paul McCartney Wildflower ~ Sheryl Crow Devils & Dust [DualDisc] ~ Bruce Springsteen Explore Similar Items : 20 in Music , 20 in DVD , and 20 in Books What similar items do customers ultimately buy after viewing this item? More than 33% buy CDs from The Bob Dylan Bootleg Series . 26% buy this item(Back Home~ Eric Clapton 12% buy Cost of Living ~ Delbert McClinton 6% buy Hillbilly Deluxe ~ Brooks & Dunn 4% buy All That I Am ~ Santana 4% buy The Word Is Live ~ Yes 2% buy At Carnegie Hall, Vol. 1-4 (Chicago IV) ~ Chicago Explore Similar Items : 9 in Music , 9 in DVD , and 9 in Books Product Details Audio CD (August 30, 2005) Number of Discs: 1 Label: Warner Bros / Wea ASIN: B000A3DFZE Average Customer Review: Based on 114 reviews. Write a review . Amazon.com Sales Rank: Today: #248 in Music Yesterday: #215 in Music Popular in: Osseo, MN(#13) , Coventry, RI(#13) . See more Customers interested in Eric Clapton may also be interested in Sponsored Links ( What's this? ) Feedback Eric Clapton Songs Download Your Favorite Songs 100% Free And Legal! www.GetMusicFree.com Eric Clapton Concert 01/06/06 Ahoy Rotterdam Bestel uw tickets op onze website www.onlineticketshop.nl Listen to Samples To hear a song sample, click on the "Listen ." Visit our audio help page for more information. 1. So Tired Listen Listen 2. Say What You Will Listen Listen 3. Im Going Left Listen Listen 4. Love Dont Love Nobody Listen Listen 5. Revolution Listen Listen 6. Love Comes To Everyone Listen Listen 7. Lost And Found Listen Listen 8. Piece Of My Heart Listen Listen 9. One Day Listen Listen 10. One Track Mind Listen Listen 11. Run Home To Me Listen Listen 12. Back Home Listen Listen Editorial Reviews Amazon.com Back Home is Eric Clapton in a good mood, filled with upbeat toe-tappers about hearth and home (a young child even puts in a cameo on "So Tired"). Blues-rock ("Lost and Found"), reggae ("Revolution"), and R&B (the Spinners' "Love Don't Love Nobody") mingle comfortably with laid-back pop (George Harrison's "Love Comes to Everyone"). Recorded around the same time as Me and Mr. Johnson , his bestselling collection of Robert Johnson songs, Clapton's first recording of (mostly) original material since 2001's Reptile is a combination of solo compositions, covers, and collaborations with writing partner Simon Climie. Backing musicians include John Mayer (guitar), Blind Faith mate Steve Winwood (synthesizer), and longtime associate Billy Preston (keyboards), whose expertise with the Hammond B3 shines brightest on the Vince Gill cowritten "One Day". There are no real surprises on Back Home , just Clapton doing what he does best--with an extra spring in his step. --Kathleen C. Fennessy Album Description Back Home, Eric Clapton's first album of original material in several years, follows this summer's historic and heralded Cream reunion and 2004's gold, Top 10 Me and Mr. Johnson covers disc (and it's audio/video companion, Sessions for Robert J). With Back Home, three-time Rock and Roll Hall of Famer and 16-time Grammy winner Clapton finds his way home with another modern classic. Spotlight Reviews (What's this?) Write an online review and share your thoughts with other customers. 104 of 126 people found the following review helpful: A happy Eric is not Eric... , September 2, 2005 Reviewer: Albert G. Smith Jr. (Daytona Beach, Fl USA)- See all my reviews I am torn here. In the review I posted for the last Mark Knopfler CD, I defended the lower prominence of lead guitar, based on the fact that this is 20-something years later than "Sultans of Swing", and an artist grows, as they should. I tried to apply this same standard to this Clapton album, but it just doesn't work for me. Knopfler might have cut back on the guitar gymnastics, but the tone and subject matter of the songs remain that same Knopfler that made me buy all of those albums. A happy Clapton is not Clapton. I'm glad his life is going well, but this also might prove that art comes from suffering. I am not a casual fan. I have every Clapton release (some on old vinyl), and tracked every vintage of his career. I can throw an old disc on that I have heard a thousand times, and experience it like new every time. I'm afraid "Back Home" will soon be relegated to the back of my CD shelf next to the dusty Pilgrim and Reptile discs. Thanks for the decades of great music Eric, but it looks like the days of buying every new album sight unseen has reached the end. I wanted to like this disc, I really did. 3 stars because this is technically a fine recording. The two missing stars are for the missing desire for me to listen to this disc after the first couple of tries. Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) 33 of 37 people found the following review helpful: In a nutshell - pleasant, but unexciting , September 20, 2005 Reviewer: Amanda Richards (Georgetown, Guyana)- See all my reviews It's been about five years since Eric Clapton delivered an album with original material. Of the twelve songs, Clapton has writing credits for five, including the first single "Revolution", a reggae-based song reminiscent of "I Shot the Sheriff", except unlike the latter, this one is a somewhat flat, unexciting track. Boosted by guest appearances, the album mixes reggae, R&B, pop and country. Contributors include George Harrison, who wrote "Love Comes to Everyone"; The Spinners' "Love Don't Love Nobody"; "I'm Going Left" from Stevie Wonder and Syreeta Wright; plus Vince Gill, Steve Winwood and John Mayer among others. Most of the songs can be classified as "easy listening" and can evoke the occasional head bob and hum, but they're all relatively standard songs, with nothing really worth shouting about. An average album, and not one of Clapton's best, something like an Oreo cookie without the good stuff inside. Rated 3.5 stars Amanda Richards, September 21, 2005 Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) All Customer Reviews Average Customer Review: Write an online review and share your thoughts with other customers. Middle of the Road , December 29, 2005 Reviewer: John Harwell (Grove City, OH USA)- See all my reviews Eric Clapton's new CD is not Eric Clapton. That's as plain as I can say it. The majority of the cuts are lilting Top-40ish sounding ditties about love and kids and general non-offensive subjects. The few blues sounding cuts have huge organ runs and what sounds like an entire choir backing his vocals. Orchestrated Blues? C'mon. There will probably huge numbers of fans who like this album, but they are NOT Eric Clapton fans. This is purely a generic "hit" album. I am not saying EC should not do happy songs, but I did not buy the CD for this "kinder, gentler" music. I personally want raw guitar and damnable blues. He is too talented for this pop album. Pure middle of the road. Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) What's wrong with this album? , December 29, 2005 Reviewer: Andrew Brooks (Carson, California)- See all my reviews After one listen, particularly after the jigging "So Tired," I started liking this album immediately. It's an easy-listening/bluesy album about love, introspection ("Back Home" comes to mind), family, and belonging. I don't understand why people only listen to just Eric Clapton's guitar and not his vocal. The singer's vocal, as well as his/her instrument, is what sets the mood for the song. Just like that saying in "Death of a Salesman," it's not "what you say." It's how you say it. And here, Eric Clapton says it well. He's happy, he's living life to its fullest, and he wants his audience to know it. A person doesn't always have to be depressed in order to make good music. Eric Clapton is one of THEE best musicians that have ever lived, next to Bob Dylan. Give the man a break. :-) Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) 1 of 3 people found the following review helpful: quit knockin a great master , December 27, 2005 Reviewer: Patrick Tsushima (San Diego, CA USA)- See all my reviews Clapton has been through more than any other musician alive the only part he may have been beat on is the drugs by say perhaps ozzy but clapton can still talk like a normal person. Anyhow point is this album may not be his classic heavy blues and whiskeyed downtime kind of thing, but for some jack ass to say that a sad clapton is not clapton annoys me enough to waste my damn time writing this stupid review when I could be playing the git fiddle I was juts and will be in just a second laying on my lap. That jackass may not be a casual eric clapton fan but he probably doesn't play guitar otherwise he would know how to critique a guitarist singer, without making himself look like a fool, and yes jackass too. Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) 1 of 2 people found the following review helpful: Give him a break, he's happy! , December 23, 2005 Reviewer: C. Lyons (Phoenix, AZ USA)- See all my reviews I have been a fan of Eric Clapton since he was in Cream, and have every one of his CDs. I think that Mr. Clapton has earned the right to let his fans know that he has found love and happiness in his beautiful wife and children. I think he has accomplished that without being untrue to his roots. I for one, and happy that he has found happiness and I am enjoying this toe-tapping CD! Was this review helpful to you? ( Report this ) See all 114 customer reviews... Customers who bought titles by Eric Clapton also bought titles by these artists: Derek & The Dominos John Mayall Cream Allman Brothers Band Jimi Hendrix Explore similar artists So You'd Like To... Stock up on these great things. :by Philipa C. Field , SL Interpreter, shopper, parent Have A Fundamental Eric Clapton Collection :by Mike Vegas King , A Journeyman Fan delete a "so you'd like to?" but can't? lol :by MovedbyMusic , can find loopholes anywhere Listmania! What"s in the CD changer right now :A list by Earl Biringer , Music Listener The Rolling Stones Studio Albums :A list by DEAN M. Dent , Musician Bonnie Raitt: Blue Angel From ... 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