Las Vegas real estate

Real estate investors cast watchful eye on Las Vegas' high stakes housing game SFGate Home Business Sports Entertainment Travel Jobs Real Estate Autos SFGate News Web by Real estate investors cast watchful eye on Las Vegas' high stakes housing game Kelly Zito, Chronicle Staff Writer Monday, March 7, 2005 now part of stylesheet -- More... Printable Version Email This Article Las Vegas' lucky number last year was 52 -- as in 52 percent. That's how much real estate prices jumped in the nation's fastest-growing city in one year, as a housing shortage set off a wave of speculation by investors from California and other states. But as any gambler knows, Lady Luck eventually turns a cold shoulder. Las Vegans wanted to cash in, too, and so many put their houses up for sale that they flooded the market. By the end of the year, some homebuilders were slashing prices. For investors from states like California where prices seem to move in only one direction -- up -- it was a stark example of a deflating bubble. "When you lose money in real estate, you really feel it,'' said Igor Doncov, a software engineer in Half Moon Bay who bought two new houses in Las Vegas early in 2004 but sold them at a loss after his builder, Pulte Homes, cut prices on its new models by $180,000. "I thought I couldn't lose," he said in a telephone interview. "But it turned into a total disaster." Housing analysts don't think Las Vegas' slowdown is a sign that prices will soften soon in other fast-appreciating regions. But they say it is a warning of what could happen in the Bay Area as interest rates go up -- particularly for people trying to "flip" houses for a quick profit. "Everyone is watching Las Vegas with its price appreciation and flipping," said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick, the La Jolla real estate research firm. "If something weird happens, it'll happen there first." For years, Las Vegas real estate was cheap. Myrna Kingham, president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, remembers not-so-distant days of driving around in a pickup wearing high heels and showing clients dusty 5-acre parcels listed for $20,000. But as the population of Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County grew 81 percent in the 1990s, adding 621,160 people, housing prices caught up, matching the national median of $145,000 in 2001. Then last year, the market caught fire, boosted by healthy job gains, a growing stream of retirees, Californians drawn to lower home prices and an influx of investor money. Builders, faced with a shortage of workers, had trouble keeping up. Add rock-bottom interest rates, and the scene resembled the go-go days of the Bay Area's tech boom. Hundreds of would-be buyers descended on open houses, and home prices seemed to increase as quickly as the progressive jackpots in the slot machines on the Strip. Record appreciation In the spring of 2004, the median price for a single-family house was $269,000, 52 percent higher than the year before -- a national record for appreciation, according to the National Association of Realtors. "The market was hotter than blazes," Kingham said. "People were looking for affordability -- they wanted a nice home in an area with nice weather that they could buy for $200,000." Californians, who pay some of the highest home prices in the nation, took notice. Golden State residents have snapped up nearly 27,000 Las Vegas properties since 2000, according to DataQuick. In 2004 alone, California residents bought 11,600 homes -- 12 percent of the transactions in Clark County for the year. Bay Area residents bought nearly 7,800 Las Vegas properties over the past five years. In the second quarter of 2004 alone, the number who bought Las Vegas property doubled from the same quarter the year before, to more than 800,surpassing investment in Sacramento, the Tahoe region and Palm Springs for the seventh straight quarter. But in less time than it takes to build a single house, the market changed. Egged on by the stratospheric prices their neighbors were asking -- and getting -- homeowners in Las Vegas flooded the market with "for sale" signs. The number of existing houses posted for sale on the Multiple Listing Service ballooned from about 1,400 in February to more than 16,000 by October. Among them were never-lived-in homes offered by investors who had bought them only months before from national homebuilders -- who were selling their own brand-new houses literally across the street. In early fall one of those builders, Pulte Homes, took the extraordinary step of slashing prices by $25,000 to $180,000 on more than 20 of its Las Vegas-area developments. The move sent shock waves through the Las Vegas building industry and angered investors like Igor Doncov. Doncov, a 57-year-old engineer who was a victim of the technology flame-out, was one of thousands of investors who hoped to turn a quick profit by buying and selling Las Vegas property within a few months. Early last year he bought two new houses from Pulte Homes for $515,000 each. By the end of the summer, he said, the houses were worth well over $600,000, based on Pulte's prices for the same models. Then Pulte cut the price by about $180,000. Doncov sold the two properties in December and January for $480,000 and $490,000; after closing costs and sales fees, he estimates he lost $100,000. He is working with a lawyer to try to recoup the losses from Pulte, on the grounds Pulte misled investors by systematically raising new home prices, then abruptly lowering them. Many people in Las Vegas shrug at tales like Doncov's, saying any plan to get rich quick is fraught with risk. "There are people who come here and lose all kinds of money on the card table," said Keith Schwer, an economist at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. By December, it was clear the peak of the frenzy had passed. Residential building permits that month were 34 percent below the previous December's, as measured by the Center for Business and Economic Research, which Schwer directs. And 15 percent fewer people were moving to Las Vegas -- some undoubtedly spooked by the region's steep jump in home prices. Pulte officials would not comment on the price reductions. In the wake of Pulte's move, other builders also cut prices but made no formal announcements. KB Home, the region's largest home builder, didn't cut prices but did tighten its policies on sales to investors. Contracts now stipulate, that, barring the loss of a job or other major problem, those who resell their properties within a year have to give KB Home the profit. Despite the builders' moves, Schwer and other experts say the Las Vegas market remains healthy. In recent months, they say, the number of homes for sale has declined and homes are selling faster. In January, however, there were still 13,800 homes for sale. Though the median price for a new home climbed 6 percent to $307,500, the median for an existing home -- $251,000 - was up only one half of one percent from a year before, according to Schwer. Over the long term, the area's job growth -- including a new 8,000-employee casino opening in April -- warm climate, entertainment options and well-equipped airport will continue to draw buyers, Schwer said. On a Friday morning in February, Bill Jeffers, who owns Valley Furniture in Livermore, toured a $731,000 home in a subdivision called Inverness. By buying a home in Las Vegas, Jeffers, who has lived on Maui for several years, will shorten his twice-monthly commute to the store and put his grandchildren into strong school systems. "I tried to get in last year, but there were just too many other buyers," said Jeffers, a Livermore native. Some making profits And some investors who bought wisely are making profits. Stephanie Wedge, a San Jose real estate agent who also brokers property in Las Vegas, bought a house for $625,000 last May. She put the 5-year-old home on the market on Feb. 23 for $775,000, and she expected to get an offer the following week. "That's a really good turnaround," said Wedge, who also has reserved a condo in a yet-to-be built high-rise. "I think it depends on where the property is -- and this is in a gated, country club community." The continued pace of construction serves as an outward sign of the region's confidence. On a stretch of freeway south of the Strip, a sign reads "KB Home, Next 5 Exits." Adding more houses to a market already flush with them would seem to only exacerbate any stagnation in the market. But Dennis Smith, president of Las Vegas' Homebuilders Research Inc. pointed out the vast majority of new homes are presold. The market "is still in correction mode because of the high inventory in the resale segment,'' he said. "It will probably take at least six months for that to end." So, will what happened in Vegas, stay in Vegas? Schwer doubts Las Vegas' deceleration will bleed into the Golden State -- or any other state -- in part because Las Vegas growth rates were so far above the norm. Others say the arc of Las Vegas' recent experience may contain a hint of the Bay Area's future. While the nine-county region saw much lower price appreciation last year than Las Vegas -- an increase of about 17 percent -- Ed Leamer, a UCLA economist, contends that both regions are enveloped in a speculative frenzy. In Las Vegas, an oversupply of homes relative to demand may spell price declines. Back in the Bay Area, Leamer thinks rising interest rates will take some of the air out of the market as fewer people qualify to buy expensive properties -- though any correction would be far less dramatic than Las Vegas'. "Because the market has cracked in Las Vegas doesn't mean it's imminent in other areas," Leamer said. "But it gives you a sense of what may happen in these areas in the face of rising interest rates." E-mail Kelly Zito at kzito@sfchronicle.com . Page A - 1 Get up to 50% off home delivery of the Chronicle for 12 weeks! MARKETING Compelling writer? Action 36 Cable 6 (KICU-TV) MECHANIC SF tugboat co POKER Expert poker player needed REAL ESTATE Sales *FREE TRAINING! Prudential CA Realty SALES Can you sell the President? IPA SALES Benefit package AGI Publishing SALES $125K PLUS In-Home Kitchen Kitchenworks, Inc. 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RISMedia - Residential Real Estate's Largest Independent News & Information Service - Immediate access to industry news,top real estate professionals,and the nation's most respected product and service firms real estate referral,real estate training,real estate education,real estate news articles information consulting expertise real estate professionals reference resources industry worldwide database national regional state real estate referral,real estate training,real estate education,real estate news articles information consulting expertise real estate professionals articles information consulting expertise real estate professionals reference resources industry worldwide database national regional state real estate referral,real estate training,real estate education,real estate news reference resources industry worldwide database national regional state real estate referral,real estate training,real estate education,real estate news Today's News Products/Services Article Search Events Feedback Login Real Estate Magazine Realtors/Services Power Broker Report Real Estate Leadership Power Broker Event Realestate Magazine Feedback Daily News Feedback Advertising Opportunities Feedback Other Feedback Today's Real Estate News Get our free News Feed Existing-Home Sales Trend Lower in November Sales eased 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.97 million units in November from a pace of 7.09 million in October More. Inverted Yield Curve Influences Mortgage Rates Fixed mortgage rates fell slightly this week, as long-term interest rates declined following a large decrease in new home sales More. NAR Provides Access to Updated Study of Emerging Legal Issues in Real Estate Study tracks historical data regarding more than 90 different legal liability issues faced by real estate professionals More. Pitching Property in the Blogosphere Real estate blogs rising in popularity at a time when the Internet is becoming more important in home-buying process More. Todays HOME Spun Wisdom New Years resolution: Adopting a healthy diet More. November Illinois Home Sales Nearly Even with Last Year Median Price at $202,000 Total home sales down less than 200 from the prior year More. 2005 California Housing Market Eclipses Previous Records Sales of detached, existing single-family homes are expected to reach 635,000 this year More. Housing Costs Up in Western Massachusetts Prices outside of the city are up much faster this year than in the Boston area More. NAR PULSE: NAR Welcomes Federal Guidelines on Specialty Mortgages The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS on Dec. 20 welcomed proposed guidelines from the federal financial regulatory agencies on specialty mortgage products that allow consumers to defer repayment of the home mortgage principal and interest. More. NAR PULSE: Terrorism Insurance Readied for President The U.S. House and Senate have reached agreement on extension of federal terrorism re-insurance for an additional two years, setting the stage for signing by President George W. Bush. The legislation increases the point at which federal backstop assistance kicks in from $5 million this year to $50 million in 2006 and $100 million in 2007, and creates the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (which includes the Treasury secretary and the Chairs of the Fed and SEC). NAR supported extension to ensure the availability and affordability of terrorism coverage, vital to the financing of commercial properties. More. NAR PULSE: New Resort Certification to Serve Growing Second-Home and Resort Market To better serve the growing second-home and resort real estate sector, a new certification for REALTORS called the Resort and Second-Home Property Specialist (RSPS) will be offered by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. The new certification program was announced at the 2005 NAR Conference & Expo in San Francisco last October. More. Sedgwick CMS Holdings Agrees to Acquisition by Fidelity National Financial FNF will acquire company for $635 million More. RE/MAX Moves to No. 8 in Entrepreneur Franchise 500 Study Company moves up in ranking More. W.C. & A.N. Miller to Help Build a Town Town of Haymount will be new venture for Miller More. Millionaires Bank on Orange County, Calif., Homes At a time when half of all county homes sell for more than $600,000, one out of six crosses into seven-figure territory More. Todays HOME Spun Wisdom Looking for a good quote to add to your New Years toast? Here are some thoughts on ringing in the New Year from some of historys most notable quotable. More. Online Marketing: New Years Resolutions for Your Web Site Commentary by Israel Rothman More. Sharp Increase in Average Time Needed to Sell a Home: Survey 75% of respondents say homes in U.S. now taking more than 30 days to sell, up from 39% in second quarter; new sales data suggests more balanced market emerging More. Floridas Lake Worth Favors Industrial Park over Building Affordable Townhomes Leaders want seven-acre mobile home park to become part of growing industrial area More. Top Mistakes of Home Buyers and Sellers in 2005 Mistakes made in 2005 may help those looking to buy or sell in 2006 More. Home Buyers Put Faith in Concrete Recent hurricanes, higher energy costs cause for more concrete structures More. California Median Home Cost Up 16.2% But sales are down 11.2% compared with last year More. Training & Business Development: Final Four Days for $125,000 Deadline for Real Estate Apprentice is approaching fast More. Todays HOME Spun Wisdom For 2006, make one resolution as a couple. Here are some guidelines. More. State Home Sales Slide For the first time in 47 months, the median price of a home in two Santa Barbara County, California markets declined from its prior annual level More. Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Author Launch the Great American Homeowner Challenge New Year's Eve Times Square 2006 celebration to kick-off campaign to inspire long-term financial success through homeownership More. List of Real Estate Training Courses for Real Estate Designations Updated Prominent real estate designations and certifications that are managed by an equally long list of real estate associations, institutes, councils and societies are now available for review in one spot More. MLSSoftware.com, RealBird Partner to Provide Map-Based Searching Services MLSSoftware to resell a branded version of RealBirds service to its clients More. Training & Business Development: The Magnificent 12 Four more industry leaders now in official judges lineup for Real Estate Apprentice More. Training & Business Development: Profiles in CourageThe Entrepreneur Agent The short cut to fearlessness More. Training & Business Development: Becoming 100% Invested in the Present Making the customer feel as though they are the only one is key More. Real Estate Continues as Prime Investment for 2006 Second consecutive year that industry has been one of the top investment choices in the survey More. Action Against Fraud Urged Jury calls for new $2 deed-filing fee to fund a new real-estate fraud prosecution unit More. Houston Home Sales Near Record Single-family home sales increased by 8.7% to 4,735 in November, up from last year's 4,357 More. Number of Homes for Sale Hits Nine-Year High in Orlando However, existing-home sales through November remained on pace to set a 13th consecutive annual record More. Todays HOME Spun Wisdom Hosting a New Years party? Here are some resolutions to think about to help you enjoy your own bash. More. Nations Strong Housing Market Seen Simmering Down in 2006 Economists: production will ease back next year to 2004s historically healthy levels More. Bankrate: Mortgage Rates in a Holiday Holding Pattern Average 30-year fixed rate mortgage dipped from 6.34 percent to 6.33 percent More. Most Homeowners Oppose Proposal to Replace Home Mortgage Interest Deduction Presidents tax reform panel would eliminate other consumer deductions More. ABN AMRO Mortgage Ranks Highest Among Primary Mortgage Lenders Highly satisfied customers refer their loan originator to others more than twice as often More. Todays HOME Spun Wisdom Regifting and exchanging 101some tips on the dos and donts of regifting More. Builders Take Steps to Curb Homes Sales Backlog of units becoming a problem for some companies More. Foreclosure.com Adds Content That Helps Subscribers Make Smart Property Decisions State-specific Foreclosure Laws and How to Buy Foreclosures offer helpful tips More. Weichert, Realtors Expands with Four New Franchises in New York and Massachusetts Company now has 31 opened affiliated offices and 11 company-owned offices in New York More. Prudential California Realty Launches Architectural Collection Division 15-year architecture and design expert to spearhead new division More. NAR PULSE: Historically Strong Home Sales Expected in 2006 The housing market for 2005 is headed for a fifth consecutive annual record, and sales activity in 2006 is expected to be the second best year in history. For more information, click here . More. NAR PULSE: NAR Launches RESPA Compliance Tools as Part of Awareness Campaign The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS has launched four new tools to help real estate professionals better understand and comply with the requirements of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) as part of NARs RESPA Awareness Campaign. For more information, click here . More. NAR PULSE: New Resort Certification to Serve Growing Second-Home and Resort Market To better serve the growing second-home and resort real estate sector, a new certification for REALTORS called the Resort and Second-Home Property Specialist (RSPS) will be offered by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. The new certification program was announced at the 2005 NAR Conference & Expo in San Francisco last October. For more information, click here . More. Wealthy Americans Remain Confident Home Values Will Increase PNC survey finds fewer than one in 10 expect decline in value of their primary homes More. Housing Market Strengthens in November Record year for single-family home construction expected More. -- Current Issue Previous Issue Past Issues Reprints Realtor Solutions CURRENT ISSUE April, 2005 Past Issues -- Daily News Email Submit your email address to receive a daily news email from rismedia.com SITE SPONSORS Today's Profile Barbara Reynolds A Smooth Transition Poll Has your market become a buyer's market? Yes No Don't know Results Polls